房地产业周期波动又探——中国房地产业步入新的周期

我们评判房地产市场形势,一般是看四个方面的指标:一是商品房销售额增长率;二是投资增长率;三是产业增长率(施、竣工面积等);四是价格涨落。房地产业周期波动可以用多个指标来进行综合评价,也可以用单一指标来衡量。为了简便起见,笔者采用单一指标来评价。那么,判断房地产业是发展到了波峰还是到了谷底,主要看哪一项指标呢?我以为是销售额     

我国房地产发展与经济增长关系的实证研究

本文基于我国东、中、西部地区房地产业与经济增长的面板数据.运用面板单位根检验、协整检验与误差修正模型,对我国房地产发展与经济增长关系进行了实证分析.结果发现,东部地区和中部地区的房地产投资额与经济增长互为因果关系,但西部地区房地产投资额与经济增长并不存在因果关系;东部、中部和西部地区的商品房销售额与经济增长互为长期因果关系,但它们的商品房销售额与经济增长之间的短期因果关系却存在差异.     

主成分分析方法及其在各仪器分析中的应用

主成分分析是在尽可能保留原有信息的基础上将高维空间中的样本映射到较低维的主成分空间中,使数据矩阵简化,降低维数,寻找少数几个由原始变量线性组合的主成分,以揭示数据结构特征,提取化学信息。随着计算机技术及其应用的发展,作为化学计量学基础的主成分分析方法在仪器分析中的应用越来越广泛,综述了自20世纪90年代至今主成分分析方法在各仪器分析中的应用。     

我国医药制造业历年财务综合评价的实证分析

财务指标的综合分析评价是投资者进行有效投资和政府进行规制的基础,主成分分析法,它可以用来描述原始变量之间的相互关系.通过降维的思想,它可以化繁为简,让我们更好地分析问题.本文选择了1998-2005年我国医药制造业历年的财务数据,选取相关财务比率,运用SPSS软件对相关指标进行处理和分析,进而对我国医药制造业近年来的总体财务状况做出综合评价,从而为投资者与管理者提供决策依据.     

上市公司信息透明度评价研究--基于主成分分析与熵权法

基于公司信息透明度影响因素的现有研究,本文选择公司治理结构、股权结构、经营状况方面的12个指标构建公司信息透明度评价模型。在实证研究方面选取深交所38家房地产上市公司作为样本,运用主成分分析法将12个指标降维成6个主成分,用熵权法对6个主成分进行赋权,计算出样本公司信息透明度得分。研究结果表明房地产公司的营运和成长能力以及内部控制结构均对信息透明度影响显著,而公司财务杠杆和两权分离度的影响效应相对较弱。     

基于主成分分析的上市公司财务结构模型研究

本文依据Altman提出的预测企业经营模型的思想,提出一个基于主成分分析方法的上市公司财务评价模型,我们发现,公司的若干财务指标可以用简单的主成分指标代替.而且主成分对于信息的解释能力超过96%,可以利用此模型对于上市公司的财务结构进行分析,为财务分析人员及投资者提供了一个简洁的分析工具.     

从上市公司股票趋势角度分析与预测房地产市场周期波动

房地产市场的周期性波动是影响房地产行业景气程度的重要因素。利用主成分分析法建立房地产市场的年度景气综合指数,寻找资本市场中与之高度相关的时间序列进行周期波动分析,在此基础上利用波浪理论对我国的房地产市场的中长期趋势及其拐点作出了预测。     

北京房地产正处发展繁荣期

近些年来,由于北京商品房空置面积连年增长,北京房地产业的发展受到社会的普遍关注。据有关部门统计,至2002年北京商品房的空置总量已达952万平方米,约占全国商品房空置总量的7.3％。为此,业界人士对北京房地产业的发展现状及未来发展趋势十分关心,但各持己见:有些人认为目前北京房地产业已发展过热,甚至出现了房地产泡沫,有些人对北京房地产业的发展状况持较为乐观的态度,认为北京商     

中国道路货运发展与宏观经济增长——基于合成指数的周期性波动研究

通过收集与中国道路货运行业经济运行相关的月度指标， 本文采用时差相关分析方法筛选出道路货运行业经济运行的先行指标、一致指标和滞后指标， 基于合成指数模型构建道路货运行业周期监测指数， 依据其波动态势分析中国道路货运行业的周期性波动特征， 并验证其与宏观经济周期性波动的先行关系。研究结果表明： 2005～2016 年， 中国道路货运行业经历了4 次较为明显的上升期和下降期， 道路货运行业与宏观经济具有基本一致的变化趋势， 但是波动幅度不同， 道路货运的波动幅度比宏观经济景气指数的波动幅度更加明显。道路货运行业周期监测指数可以客观记录道路货运行业波动的过程， 科学预测道路货运行业的周期波动趋势， 为新常态下道路货运行业健康发展提供宏观调控的决策参考。     

管理者过度自信变量的选择和实证分析——来自中国上市公司的经验证据

基于行为公司金融视角,以2007-2010年间中国A股上市公司为样本,运用主成分分析法对中国上市公司高管人员过度自信变量的衡量进行了确定。研究表明:选取所处行业风险、资产负债率、公司的资产规模、净资产收益率、管理者持股比例和管理者薪酬比例这6个指标作为影响管理者过度自信的因素,可以进行主成分分析,并确定权数,得出一个新的衡量高管过度自信的综合指标。     

Inferring an Investment Return Series for Real Estate from Observations on Sales

Accurate measurement of the returns to real estate investment are essential to sound analysis. This paper improves upon the traditionally employed method—collecting comparable sales data. A dynamic model of real estate appraisal is developed in which agents have incomplete information, heterogeneous search costs, and varying expectations. Various types of simulation analysis of the model indicate it performs best in the sense that the return estimate converges to the true value faster than other simpler rules.     

Short Sales and Price Discovery in the Hong Kong Real Estate Market

Indirect real estate (IRE) returns are often shown to lead direct real estate (DRE) returns. Apart from differences in liquidity, transaction costs, and management skills, the DRE market is also less complete than the IRE market—when negative shocks arrive, one can only short IRE (e.g., real estate stocks or REITs), but not DRE. This study investigates if short sales in the IRE market convey any information to the DRE market. Based on high‐frequency (weekly) property price data in Hong Kong from 2000 to 2012, we find that short sales in the IRE market led DRE returns, even after controlling for the lagged IRE returns in a VAR model. This supports an information spillover mechanism in which the DRE market learns private information that is not reflected in IRE returns. The spillover effect, however, weakened after the recent global financial crisis because the increased uncertainty over the credibility of individual firms made short sales more reflective of firm‐specific information than real estate market fundamentals.     

Workouts, Deep Pockets, and Fire Sales: An Analysis of Distressed Real Estate

This paper presents a conceptual analysis of issues that relate to the management of distressed real estate assets. The paper examines the decision implications of the major characteristics of real estate assets and real estate markets in the light of information and incentive problems that emerge when assets fail to perform as anticipated. The paper focuses on the determination of commitments of additional resources to a troubled property, the identification of efficient holders of distressed assets, and the consideration of policies toward the disposition of distressed assets. The paper concludes that in many instances asset sales, rather than causing further destabilization as suggested by the fire sale image, are likely to contribute to reducing the costs associated with distress.     

The Value of a Real Estate Franchise

Franchise affiliation has become common in the real estate brokerage industry. Department of Commerce estimates show that in 1981 about 30% of all real estate brokerage establishments were franchise affiliated. This paper develops and estimates a model of brokerage firm sales, using sample data collected in 1982 for three North Carolina cities. Controlling for the size and experience of the brokerage staff and the experience of the broker, the paper finds that franchise affiliation contributes to firm sales. Affiliation with a national franchise appears to be worth about $930,000 in additional sales to the average firm.     

基于超效率DEA的房地产信贷资金配置效率研究

文章针对投放到房地产领域的信贷资金配置效率问题进行研究,利用超效率DEA建立分析模型,以我国35个大中城市作为研究样本,分别选取了2005年的投入指标和2007年的产出指标,实证检验了上述城市房地产信贷资金的配置效率.研究发现,整体上房地产信贷资金配置效率不高,只有48%的城市达到了DEA有效,其余52%的城市没有达到DEA有效;投放在房地产领域的信贷资金,配置效率呈现出地域化分布,DEA有效的城市集中分布在东北和西北地区,未达到DEA有效的城市集中分布在中部和南方地区.     

How Do Land Auction Formats Influence the Market Structure and Aggregate Surplus of Real Estate Development?

This article proposes a duopoly dynamic game theoretic model to investigate the market structure and aggregate surplus of real estate development when land is sold in a sealed‐bid first price auction vis‐à‐vis an open English auction. It relaxes the assumption of symmetric bidders. The land values have common value and private value components. We find that the sealed‐bid first price auction introduces competition in the real estate development market. The open English auction leads a monopoly market. State agencies are recommended to increase the aggregate surplus of real estate development by publishing past bidding information under the sealed‐bid first price auction and reducing information asymmetry between bidders.     

房地产时尚卖点—信息化社区

网络经济的飞速发展为传统行业提供了新的发展方向和模式。房地产业作为处于竞争领域的传统行业，面对自身发展中出现的问题和新电子商务的挑战，房地产商纷纷在网络中寻找卖点－信息化社区，章就信息化社区建设提出建议。     

On the Value of Environmental Certification in the Commercial Real Estate Market

A significant part of the global carbon externality stems from the real estate sector. Environmental certification is often hailed as an effective means to resolve the information asymmetry that may prevent markets from effectively pricing the energy performance of buildings. This study analyzes the adoption and financial outcomes of environmentally certified commercial real estate over time. We document that nearly 40% of space in the 30 largest U.S. commercial real estate markets holds some kind of environmental certification in 2014, as compared to less than 5% in 2005. Tracking the rental growth of 26,212 office buildings, we measure the performance of environmentally certified real estate over time. We document that certified office buildings, on average, have slightly higher rental, occupancy and pricing levels, but do not outperform non‐certified buildings in rental growth over the 2004–2013 period. Further performance attribution analysis indicates that local climate conditions, local energy prices and the extent of certification lead to significant heterogeneity in market pricing. On aggregate, these findings provide some evidence on the efficiency of the market in the adoption and capitalization of environmental characteristics in the commercial real estate market.     

基于Hedonic模型的深圳房地产价格指数研究

为了反映房地产价格的真实变动情况,采用特征价格法建立了深圳市房地产价格指数模型,并采用实际的成交数据进行分析。通过对原始交易数据的修正,将不同品质的房产修正为同一品质的房产,使房地产价格指数的计算更加科学、客观。连续运行五年的房地产价格指数表明,基于特征价格法编制的房地产价格指数具有合理性和可行性。