谈能源战略以电力为中心

“进入21世纪以来，新一轮能源变革正在世界范围内蓬勃兴起，全球能源格局正在发生重大而深刻的变化，这一轮世界能源变革的焦点是新能源，核心是电力，变革的方向是推动能源发展方式战略转型。进一步提高能效水平，调整能源结构，实施能源替代，     

未来世界能源消费趋势综述

即将到来的21世纪,是世界各国更加注重经济与环境可持续发展的世纪。世界各国都在力求使能源利用、经济增长与环境保护协调一致地发展。在这样的背景下,世界能源消费显示出如下的发展趋势:(1)经济增长将带动能源消费需求的区域结构发生重大变化,发展中国家占世界能源消费的比例将上升。(2)世界石油消费增长速度将放慢,但石油在能源消费中仍将保持主导地位;由于世界石油勘探、开发和生产技术的进步,国际石油市场未来的发展趋势可能是高需求、低价格。(3)世界天然气需求将保持强劲增长势头,以亚洲、东欧和中南美洲的需求增长为最快;(4)世界煤炭消费量占能源消费的比重将缓慢下降;煤炭作为对环境污染严重的矿物能源,不仅面临其他优质能源的竞争,而且其消费需求的增加将造成巨大的环境压力。(5)电力消费需求将快速增长;可再生能源的发展会有更好的市场条件,消费比重将有所上升。     

构建清洁低碳发展的电力容量和灵活调节服务市场

<正>当前,世界(包括中国)的能源和电力领域,科学、技术、市场和管理都呈现出许多新的、革命性的发展态势。世界范围内,世界能源领域加快呈现多元化、清洁化、低碳化转型发展趋势。根据有关国际机构预测,2050年清洁能源占比将达到54%。同时,新一轮能源革命的重要发展趋势是电气化水平的持续提升,重新构建和形成以电力为中心的能源体系。因此,电气化水平的持续提升也将成为能源     

绿电营销组合策略

绿色电力，属于新能源与可再生能源范畴，含风能、太阳能、生物质能、地热能、小水电、海洋能等非化石能源生产的电力。它的产生，对于克服世界经济发展中所面临的能源短缺与环境污染两大瓶颈制约，促进环境优化与电力工业可持续发展，已显示出活力，因而成为各国政府、超政府的联合国机构及理论界关注的热点。     

电力市场化改革大趋势——专访中国社科院工经所能源研究中心主任史丹

从世界能源产业改革看我国电力改革 记者：从世界与我国的宏观角度看，你认为能源产业改革的大趋势是什么？     

世界煤炭市场价格趋涨

自从1988年世界煤炭现货及期货市场的价格开始呈现上涨的形势以来,这种趋势正在持续发展。最近美国出版的《煤》和《工程与采矿》等杂志,相继摘要发表了有关国际能源组织等对今后几年世界煤炭市场的发展持比较乐观态度的分析和预测,同时都对煤炭价格势必上涨的趋势持肯定看法。随着国际局势趋向缓和,各国对于恢复和发展本国经济的努力都在加强,对电力的     

把脉2014

为贯彻落实党的十八届三中全会和中央经济工作会议精神，推进电力发展方式转变，服务广大会员企业科学健康发展．中国电力企业联合会于2014年2月24日，在北京召开了“2014年经济形势与电力发展分析预测会”。与会领导、专家介绍了当前经济、能源、电力运行总体情况与发展态势，     

世界天然气发电现状与趋势

１９８０～１９９７年,世界发电用天然气消费量增长了４５９２亿立方米。是同期世界新增天然气消费量的５０％以上;在世界电力生产总量中,天然气发电量的比例从１２％增至１５％,达２万亿千瓦小时。丰富的天然气资源、优化能源结构的迫切需要、燃气联合循环发电的技术经济优势、电力市场重组和势电联产对能源利用效率的提高等,成为推动天然气发电消费增长的动力。预计到２０１０年,世界天然气发电装机容量将增加７．４亿千瓦,     

电力工业体制改革应结合企业产权改革进行

1875年，世界上第一台直流发电机组在法国巴黎北火车站落成，发电用于照明。1879年，世界上第一座商业发电厂在美国旧金山落成，并将发出的电力出售给用户。128年来，世界电力工业得到了突飞猛进的发展，发电机组从小容量的常规机组发展到大容量的超临界机组；驱动发电机组的动力从单一能源发展到火力、水力、风力、燃气能、太阳能、核能等多种能源；     

中亚地区及与周边国家电力联网发展展望

经济全球化使得能源资源的跨国优化配置成为必需。中亚地区能源资源非常丰富,各国之间电力联网是实现地区跨国资源优化配置的有效手段。在深入分析中亚各国能源基本情况、能源资源分布特点、电力工业现状的基础上,对中亚地区未来电力需求进行了预测,提出了中亚地区各国及与周边国家电力联网的初步构想。     

Prognose der Day-Ahead Wind- und Photovoltaikstromerzeugung – Einflussgrößen und Zuverlässigkeit

In the future, the percentage of renewable energies in the electricity generation is expected to increase continuously. Especially weather-dependent wind and solar power plays a substantial role. These energy sources are partly characterized by a fluctuating and imprecisely predictable power generation. To cover the residual load and to balance the forecast errors a rising number of flexible producers and consumers will be needed in the future. This is necessary to ensure the high security of supply of the German electricity grid.Against this background, the objective of the following investigation is to analyse the day-ahead forecasting quality of the feed-in from wind and photovoltaic systems in the control areas of Germany’s transmission system operators and in the entire area of Germany for the years 2010 to 15. The aim of this analysis is to identify the crucial parameters that influence the forecast error. Subsequently, the share of the wind and photovoltaic power forecast which can be considered as reliably predictable for the following day is estimated. In addition, the increase in this reliable prediction through a higher level of detail in the assessment of the forecast error is quantified. Based on these results, the need of flexibilities through the weather-dependent electricity supply from wind and photovoltaic systems can be estimated, and the impact on the electricity system can be evaluated.     

2020年河南省煤炭供需平衡研究

以能源发展与河南省经济发展相适应为前提,在电力需求预测的基础上,对全省煤炭需求进行分析预测,得出煤炭仍是河南省的主要能源、电煤是拉动煤炭消费增长主要因素的结论。通过对全省煤炭行业发展的预测分析,进行全省煤炭供需平衡研究,得出远期河南省煤炭不能自身平衡的结论。提出河南省应合理有序开发煤炭,稳定煤炭产量;调整能源消费结构和电源结构,降低对煤炭的依存度;输煤输电并举,增强河南省能源供应保障水平。     

2005年电力供需分析及2006年预测

2005年下半年开始我国电力供需矛盾开始出现缓和,作者对2005年全国电力供需情况进行了全面分析总结,并对2006年全国电力供需形势进行了分析预测,对2007年电力供需形势进行了展望。根据分析预测结果,2006年全国电力供需形势将由缺电向基本平衡过渡,自2002年以来这一轮全国性缺电局面将于2007年全面结束。     

Preisdeterminanten des Stromgroßhandels in Frankreich

This article provides a model-based analysis of the French spot market for electricity. Therefore a cost optimizing dispatch model is applied in order to derive a broader understanding of the liberalized electricity market in France considering empirical spot market prices in 2009. At first analysis of market structure and power plant mix is done in accordance with the european framework. The state of supply side competition is suggested as well. Due to the high portion of nuclear energy in the French energy mix the technical availability forecast of the plants plays a crucial role during the price formation on the wholesale market. As a result prices determined by the model are highly correlated with the French spot market. The results suggest a functioning pricing mechanism although deviations occur by ex-ante uncertain demand or unscheduled non-usability of generating units.     

Einflussfaktoren auf die Bereitschaft von Privatkunden, Ökostrom nachzufragen

The present study investigates impacts of attitudinal and perceptual characteristics of residential electricity consumers on their intention to use a green power tariff/supplier in the future. The work rests on a standardized telephone survey of 267 household electricity consumers of a German power supplier. Multivariate Partial Least Squares analysis indicates that, regardless of a person’s level of actual power consumption in the recent past, the intention to use green electricity is significantly higher among customers who have a positive general attitude towards environmental protection measures and who report an endorsing valuation of green power by their close social contacts. In a subsample of participants with a low actual electricity consumption in the year preceding the survey the intention to use green energy is significantly positively affected by the weight an individual attaches to electricity prices in one’s own supplier selection decisions and the person’s belief that one’s present power company takes over social responsibility. In contrast, in the subgroup of respondents with a high actual electricity consumption customers’ intention to use green energy is significantly enhanced by the degree of perceived dissimilarity among power company offerings. The findings are used to derive suggestions for green energy marketing measures of power companies and future energy consumer research.     

水电参与电力市场竞价的若干问题探讨

结合水电的特性,分析了水电参与市场竞争面临的主要问题,深入探讨了各类水电站参与的市场类型、梯级水电站的报价主体、上下游水电站中标电量不协调如何处理、水电站未中标弃水时和由于预测不准而产生电量偏差的处理等.     

Development of a Network-location-model for the Economic Optimization of Local Heating Systems in Urban Chile

Cogeneration of heat and electricity is an important pillar of energy and climate policy. To plan the production and distribution system of combined heat and power (CHP) systems for residential heating, suitable methods for decision support are needed. For a comprehensive feasibility analysis, the integration of the location and capacity planning of the power plants, the choice of customers, and the network planning of the heating network into one optimization model are necessary. Thus, we develop an optimization model for electricity generation and heat supply. This mixed integer linear program (MILP) is based on graph theory for network flow problems. We apply the network location model for the optimization of district heating systems in the City of Osorno in Chile, which exhibits the “checkerboard layout” typically found in many South American cities. The network location model can support the strategic planning of investments in renewable energy projects because it permits the analysis of changing energy prices, calculation of break-even prices for heat and electricity, and estimation of greenhouse gas emission savings.     

Empirische Analyse des Wechselverhaltens von Stromkunden. Was hält Stromkunden davon ab,zu Ökostromanbietern zu Wechseln?

In an online survey concerning the preferences for wind power generation in Germany respondents were also asked whether they purchase green electricity. If not, they were requested to state the reasons for not purchasing green electricity. In this paper we present the results using, among other things, a logistic regression analysis. Moreover, we also interpret the results with respect to German energy policy. The regression analysis shows, for example, that respondents who are not in favour of the climate policy of the German government are less likely to purchase green electricity. Overall, the results show that respondents do not principally oppose purchasing green electricity. Reservation towards green electricity is rather caused by insufficient information about green electricity and lacking motivation to change power contracts at the current supplier or to change even the supplier. However, as the sample of the on-line survey is not representative for Germany, the conclusions should be considered with some degree of caution. Nevertheless, the results show unused market potential for green electricity. This conclusion might be of interest for producers of green electricity and for the marketing of green electricity labels, because a substantial share of the identified obstacles can be eliminated with suitable marketing actions.     

我国网对网跨区（省）电力交易价格机制创新

建立科学、合理的跨区（省）电力交易价格机制,有利于加快跨区（省）电网发展,有利于促进能源资源优化配置。由于我国电价机制正在完善中,独立输配电价机制尚未建立,当前跨区（省）电力交易尤其是网对网跨区（省）电力交易的价格机制存在一些突出问题。基于跨区（省）电力交易价格机制与方法的分析,借鉴国外跨国（区）电力交易中送电、输电和受电价格制定的经验,从完善价格体系、实施统一的价格机制、引入市场定价方法等方面提出了我国网对网跨区（省）电力交易价格体系与机制创新的政策建议。     

近期电煤供需偏紧的原因分析

分析了近期电煤供需偏紧的直接原因，一是经济企稳回升，用电量大幅增长；二是水力发电量明显下降，电力电量平衡对火力发电的依赖程度加深；三是电煤供应持续低于需求。但电煤供需偏紧的根本原因一是煤电价格机制不顺，二是我国能源运输体系不合理。根据当前电力生产形势，对电力公司和政府提出了相关建议。