Commodity prices, trade, and poverty in Uruguay

The 2006-2008 food price spike raised concerns about the impact of high commodity prices on poverty in developing countries. This paper addresses these concerns in relation to Uruguay, a small country that exports agricultural commodities and imports fuels. Applying a general equilibrium model, we find that, as a whole, an increase in commodity prices has a positive effect on the economy of Uruguay. Benefits obtained through a growth in export activities are partially outweighed by an increase in crude oil prices. In this context, extreme poverty increases. As in other countries, the increase in food prices affects the already poor population, who become even poorer. This fact highlights the need for policies that mitigate the negative effects of price shocks.     

Pricing policies of multinational enterprises : Host country regulation and welfare

This paper examines host country price-regulation policies towards a foreign subsidiary. The analysis considers two prices, namely the transfer prices charged to the subsidiary, and the market price of the subsidiary's products. It is shown that host countries should regulate both of these prices. Regulation of the transfer price alone may induce an increase in the subsidiary's market price and cause a loss of host country welfare. Regulation of both prices is more efficient for it enables the host country to attain a higher level of welfare and allows the foreign firm to earn the same level of profits as would regulation of only one of those prices.     

Integrating climate change,food prices and population health

The inter-related nature of food, health and climate change requires a better understanding of the linkages and a greater alignment of policy across these issues to be able to adequately meet the pressing social and health challenges arising from climate change. Food price is one way through which climate change may affect health. The aim of this study of the global and Australian food systems is to provide a whole-of-system analysis of food price vulnerabilities, highlighting the key pressure points across the food system through which climate change could potentially have the greatest impact on consumer food prices and the implications for population health. We outline areas where there are particular vulnerabilities for food systems and food prices arising from climate change, particularly global commodity prices; agricultural productivity; short term supply shocks; and less direct factors such as input costs and government policies. We use Australia as a high-income country case study to consider these issues in more detail. The complex and dynamic nature of pricing mechanisms makes it difficult to predict precisely how prices will be impacted. Should prices rise disproportionately among healthy foodstuffs compared to less healthy foods there may be adverse health outcomes if less expensive and less healthy foods are substituted. Higher prices will also have equity implications with lower socio-economic groups most impacted given these households currently spend proportionately more of their weekly income on food. The ultimate objective of this research is to identify the pathways through the food system via which climate change may affect food prices and ultimately population health, thereby providing evidence for food policy which takes into account environmental and health considerations.     

Farmers' consumption of an imported cereal and the cash/foodcrop decision: An example from Senegal

The effects of key agricultural policies on Senegalese farmers are analysed through a survey combining farming systems research methods, family budgets, dietary and anthropometric studies for the same rural households. Policies impact their food consumption through farm and non-farm incomes, prices of inputs, extension and research, and the prices of basic foods. Food consumption is closely related to family success in mixed cropping, but millet remains the basic rural food. Although rice has deeply penetrated rural markets, a maintenance of export earnings will require simultaneous gains in yields for both cash and traditional foodcrops.     

Inequalities of opportunity in the access and use of telecommunication services in Togo

The liberalization of the telecommunications sector in Togo aimed at ensuring access to a better quality of telecommunication services at affordable prices to everyone. While the liberalization policy has increased competition in the sector and reduced significantly telecommunication services prices charged to costumers, statistics on the access and use of telecommunication services in Togo reveal disparities with respect to individuals' socio-economic characteristics which could be an indication of the existence of inequalities of opportunities in the access and use of these services.This paper investigates the inequalities of opportunity in the access and use of telecommunication services in Togo using a parametric approach. The results of estimations indicate that, inequalities of opportunities are larger for men and the elderly than respectively women and youths and are more pronounced in urban areas and regions such as the Plateaux and Savanna regions. Moreover, the circumstance variables such as the ‘place of residence’ and the ‘region’ are the key variables in explaining the inequalities of opportunities in the access and use of telecommunication services in Togo. So, policies toward reducing inequalities of opportunity in the access and use of telecommunication services in Togo should be designed with regards to men, the elderly, and people living in urban areas and regions such as the Plateaux and Savanna regions.     

A quantitative analysis of trade policy responses to higher world agricultural commodity prices

The worldwide spike in prices of agricultural commodities in 2007–2008 elevated food security and social stability issues to the forefront, especially in many food-deficit countries. In order to mitigate the global food commodity price pressure on domestic markets, several major exporting and importing countries, mostly developing economies, adopted trade policy changes such as export bans (or raising export restrictions) or reducing import tariffs during the same period. This paper estimates the potential impacts of these policies on the world prices and trade of major agricultural commodities using a set of multi-country, multi-commodity, and partial-equilibrium models. Our findings suggest that over all, the trade policy responses in various countries increased the prices of all agricultural commodities, although the impact on the total net trade varies by commodity. The simulation results show that the overall impact of trade policy distortions on the world rice price is most significant at 24%, followed by wheat (14%) and barley (9%). In general, the poorer food-deficit countries/regions, which have limited power to manipulate their trade policies, experienced higher price increases compared to those major trading countries that adopted policy interventions. Also, the developing countries that are net importers which did not implement trade policy interventions experienced significant welfare losses resulting from interventions implemented by other major trading countries.     

A new look at residential electricity demand using household expenditure data

Many electricity demand estimates have been obtained based on the assumption that consumers optimize with respect to known marginal prices, but increasing empirical evidence suggests that consumers are more likely to respond to average prices. Under this assumption, this paper develops a new strategy based on Generalized Method of Moments to estimate household electricity demand. Our demand estimation approach uses publicly available expenditure data and utility-level consumption data from several major U.S. cities, complementing studies that use individual billing data which are richer yet often proprietary. We estimate the price elasticity near − 0.50, which is at the upper end (in magnitude) among the estimates from previous studies. This could have important implications for policy analysis such as those on climate policies that may affect electricity prices.     

Cooperatives in Bolivia: Customer ownership of the local loop

Cooperatives have been used by the inhabitants in rural areas to gain access to telecommunications. In Bolivia and Finland, for example, consumer cooperatives have been for many years the only mechanism to provide local telecommunication services to the whole country. This paper studies the effects of the Bolivian market's structure on the development of competition as well as on universal access and service policies. It argues that some cooperatives after the liberalisation of the market are not helping to develop competition. Cooperatives may have incentives to increase the interconnection charges that they receive from long distance firms to cross-subsidise the prices of local calls. Moreover, as some cooperatives have entered the long distance market, they may try to restrict competition through collusive agreements. Finally, the paper suggests that the excessive price of the cooperatives’ shares may have damaged the possibility of reaching a higher penetration level and greater coverage in rural areas.     

Regulating prices in two-sided markets: The waterbed experience in mobile telephony

The distinguishing feature of two-sided markets is that the pricing structure, that is, the relative prices charged to each side, matters. Regulators need to understand and account for the interdependence of prices in both sides. Some interventions that lower the prices on one side can result in higher prices on the other side of such markets. This article reviews the recent literature analyzing this waterbed phenomenon in mobile telephony and draws some more general lessons for policy interventions in two-sided markets.     

Demand-driven integration and divorcement policy

Traditionally, vertical integration has concerned industrial economists only insofar as it affects market outcomes, particularly prices. This paper considers reverse causality, from prices – and more generally, from demand – to integration in a model of a dynamic oligopoly. If integration is costly but enhances productive efficiency, then a trend of rising prices and increasing integration could be due to growing demand, in which case a divorcement policy of forced divestiture may be counterproductive. Divorcement can only help consumers if it undermines collusion, but then there are dominating policies. We discuss well-known divorcement episodes in retail gasoline and British beer, as well as other evidence, in light of the model.     

Universal service and the Telecommunications Act of 1996. The fact after the act

Three goals of the 1996 Telecommunications Act are competition, efficiency, and explicit mechanisms to further universal service. The new universal service policies violate these goals. I review the policies (support for highcost and rural areas, low-income subscribers, and educational and medical institutions, and the funding mechanism) and detect the influence of various interest groups and the regulators' desire to protect their policies from public scrutiny. The new policies will require $4–12 billion per year to fund and create inefficiency of $1.2–4.0 billion per year from revenue taxation. A more efficient tax scheme would increase total surplus.     

PRICE DISPERSION IN THE SMALL AND IN THE LARGE: EVIDENCE FROM AN INTERNET PRICE COMPARISON SITE

This paper examines four million daily price observations for more than 1,000 consumer electronics products on the price comparison site http://Shopper.com . We find little support for the notion that prices on the Internet are converging to the 'law of one price.' In addition, observed levels of price dispersion vary systematically with the number of firms listing prices. The difference between the two lowest prices (the 'gap') averages 23 per cent when two firms list prices, and falls to 3.5 per cent in markets where 17 firms list prices. These empirical results are an implication of a general 'clearinghouse' model of equilibrium price dispersion.     

Farm subsidies and obesity in the United States: National evidence and international comparisons

Many commentators have claimed that farm subsidies have contributed significantly to the “obesity epidemic” by making fattening foods relatively cheap and abundant. But U.S. farm policies have generally small and mixed effects on farm commodity prices, which in turn have even smaller and still mixed effects on the relative prices of more- and less-fattening foods. Other factors have had much more influence on reducing the farm prices of food commodities and the consumer prices of food such that any effects of U.S. farm policies on U.S. obesity patterns must have been negligible. Moreover, while many arguments can be made for changing U.S. farm subsidies, even entirely eliminating the current programs could not be expected to have a significant influence on obesity rates. International evidence reinforces this finding. The countries that support their farmers most strongly tend to have relatively low obesity rates. In these countries the main support for farmers comes through trade barriers and higher consumer prices, which—like U.S. policies for sugar, dairy, orange juice, and beef—discourage consumption and reduce obesity. In contrast with agricultural subsidies, agricultural R&D has had a significant effect in the past on the relative price of food commodities and food, and has the potential to influence obesity patterns in the future, but R&D policy is a very blunt instrument for pursuing public health policy objectives.     

Sources of food price volatility and child malnutrition in Niger and Malawi

In recent times, considerable attention has been paid to the nutritional impact of the sharp hikes in the international food prices which took place in 2007–8 and 2010–11. While understandable, this growing focus has perhaps obscured the impact of other variables affecting malnutrition in Sub-Saharan Africa, i.e. the long-term impact of agricultural policies on food supply and prices, large and persistent seasonal variations in food prices, and the impact of famines which still affect parts of the continent. This paper focuses on the relative impact of these factors on child malnutrition (measured by the number of child admissions to feeding centres) in Malawi and Niger, two countries which closely represent the situation of other small, landlocked, subsistence agricultural economies facing severe food security problems. Our analysis shows that in these countries the drivers of changes in domestic staple prices and child malnutrition are related not only – or not primarily – to variations of international food prices but also to the impact of agricultural policies on food production and prices, in a persistent food price seasonality, and in recurrent and poorly managed famines. These factors can exert a strong upward pressure on food prices and child malnutrition even during years of falling international prices.     

Price relations between export and domestic rice markets in Thailand

Many rice importing countries argue that rice exporting nations isolate their domestic markets through the use of stabilization pricing policies which cause international rice markets to become excessively volatile. For the argument to hold any weight, price transmission between exporting countries’ domestic and export markets should be unidirectional whereby export prices are driven by domestic prices but domestic prices are not affected by export prices. The study tests the hypothesis on Thailand, traditionally the world’s largest rice exporter. The results from the causality tests are not entirely clear, however the results from the impulse response functions show that while the shocks originating in the domestic market are higher in magnitude in the export market in the short-run, the shocks originating in the export market are more persistent in the domestic market. This suggests that although Thailand’s domestic policies are somewhat effective in the immediate months after the shock they allow price transmission from its export market to transfer over to its domestic market in the long-run. The results therefore imply that Thailand’s domestic pricing programs are not heavily distorting world rice markets.     

Cost allocation of WCDMA and wholesale pricing for mVoIP and data services

This study estimates cost-based prices for wholesale voice and data services provided to 3G (WCDMA) MVNOs according to their distinct types. For estimation, 3G MVNOs are classified into different types, and the overall cost of WCDMA facilities are separated into voice and data components based on their subscriber rates, actual traffic rates, as well as efficiency consideration of traffic rates. The study then calculates cost-based wholesale prices of voice and data services for each of the 3G MVNO types. The result of this study shows that a cost-plus pricing scheme can help achieve the policy goals of the regulator, namely, lowering telecommunications tariffs and facilitating the introduction of new convergent-type services, far more effectively than the current retail-minus pricing scheme. The findings of this study may assist firms in developing business models based on 3G networks and telecom regulators in designing policies related to interconnection, mVoIP, prepaid calls, wholesale services, and network neutrality.     

An improved maize marketing system for African countries: the case of Zimbabwe

This article proposes a system for Zimbabwe which retains government control of national stocks and enables the parastatal marketing system to stabilize prices, at the same time ensuring a more rational delivery system in rural areas with prices reflecting storage and transport costs. The local population is encouraged to fulfill local needs, thus avoiding the expense of directing all marketing and processing through the urban areas. A more localized system will also have greater multiplier effects. Zimbabwe's maize marketing system is used to show how this system could be modified with benefits to rural consumers, producers and government. Data suggest there is little market exploitation: price differentials between markts reflect transport costs, returns on storage are reasonable, and voluntary procurement operations are usually able to stabilize prices. Zoning, movement restrictions and compulsory procurement have been shown to destabilize food markets; prices between markets are higher in periods of strict control than when marketing is relatively free. Controlled marketing answers a real political and economic need in Zimbabwe. Existing public food marketing agencies are not inherently inefficient. While stabilizing maize supply, there are important advantages in announcing preplanting prices, but any trade in maize only takes place after price setting. It is unlikely that there would be both imports and exports in any 1 year, except when previous contracts are being fulfilled. 2 policy options are available to cover anticipated periods of insufficient national maize production: the maintenance of a strategic reserve; and importation of maize to cover supply shortfalls. Single-channel marketing should be replaced by an internal free market operating between floor and ceiling prices by supply manipulation to prevent excessive producer and consumer welfare fluctuations. This system would be more efficient and have beneficial effects on development. It is more equitable for the rural poor, and result in greater stability of producer incomes, more reliable food supplies, higher producer prices and the release of public funds.     

Government Policies,Residential Mortgage Defaults and the Boom and Bust Cycle of Housing Prices

We develop a micro‐based macromodel for residential home prices in an economy where defaults on residential mortgages negatively affect housing prices. Our model enables us to study the impact of subprime defaults on prime borrowers and the impact of various government policies on the housing market boom and bust cycle. In this regard, our key conclusions are that (i) there is a contagion effect from subprime defaults to prime defaults due to the negative impact of subprime defaults and (ii) monetary policy is the most effective tool for decreasing mortgage defaults and increasing aggregate home prices in contrast to alternative government fiscal policies designed to loosen mortgage credit.     

Mergers — What the “Grimm” data tell us

The aggregate level of U.S. merger activity may be influenced by expectations concerning future economic growth (as proxied by stock prices), current economic conditions, and/or interest rates. This paper applies regression analysis to the W. T. Grimm annual merger data from 1963–1986 to determine which of these determinants are significant. It also examines whether the government's antitrust stance influences merger activity. The results indicate that current economic conditions are a significant determinant, while interest rates and the government's antitrust stance appear to have no effect on mergers. The result concerning stock prices was inconclusive and will require more analysis.The author would like to thank an anonymous referee for many helpful comments. As always, the author accepts sole responsibility for any errors or omissions.     

国际油价长周期波动对产油国投资环境的影响

石油供需的弹性特点决定了国际石油市场一直存在高油价均衡与低油价均衡交替出现的现象。经济发展增速低于预期往往会带来国际油价从高位均衡向低位均衡转变,近年世界经济发展变动预示着国际油价已进入低位均衡阶段。在低油价均衡下,近年来很多重要的产油国都已出现十分严重的政府财政危机。出于维持国家财政平衡的需求,产油国往往会采取竞争性的生产政策,可能推出更具吸引力的投资政策。在石油投资机会增多的同时,投资风险会提高。在新的市场环境下,中国石油企业应当着力控制石油投资成本,在把握海外有利的投资机会的同时,高度重视和规避境外投资风险。