Quantifizierung und Systematisierung der technischen und verhaltensbedingten Stromeinsparpotenziale der deutschen Privathaushalte

Electricity consumption in German households accounts for more than 10 % of energy-related CO₂ emissions. In spite of substantial improvements in, for example, the efficiency of household appliances, there is still a considerable electricity savings potential to be tapped in this sector. The possible contribution that the German residential sector can make to climate protection is correspondingly large. This paper aims to structure and quantify electricity savings potentials which could be exploited in German households either through investment measures or changed user behaviour. The total theoretical potential which can be tapped through the purchase of efficient household appliances and the replacement of electrical heaters and hot water generators (i.e. by encouraging investment) amounts to approx. 90 TWh/a. This corresponds to more than 60 % of the current electricity demand of all German households. By means of changed user behaviour, approx. 30 TWh of electricity could be saved according to our calculations. These results presented in this article were reached within the scope of the TRANSPOSE interdisciplinary research project (http://www.uni-muenster.de/Transpose/, the complete analysis can be downloaded at http://www.uni-muenster.de/imperia/md/content/transpose/publikationen/buerger_working_paper_3.pdf). This project is funded within the framework of the ‘Social-ecological Research’ programme of the German Federal Ministry for Education and Research.     

„Collaborative Governance“ – ein neues Konzept für die Regulierung der europäischen Strom- und Gasmärkte?

Current British and American publications about the liberalization of electricity and gas markets demand a paradigm shift in the regulation of energy networks. These publications can be subsumed under the scientific debate about “collaborative governance” in the USA. They call for an integration of network users and consumers into the regulatory process. Their philosophy resembles the philosophy of the negotiated third party access in Germany from 1998 till 2005. Their regulatory strategy might be more effective than the actual European “command and control” strategy in establishing competitive energy markets. This article examines and evaluates these publications and their regulatory strategy.     

Multidimensionales Verfahren zur Bestimmung des Regelleistungsbedarfes unter Berücksichtigung von Unsicherheiten

One of the most crucial constraints in operation of electrical power supply systems is the permanent balance between generation and load. Reserve power is held ready to be able to keep this balance also in case of the occurrence of unpredictable events like power plant outages or inevitable deviations of power injections from their predicted values. At this, the allocation of operating reserves is in the field of conflict between level of reliability and cost effectiveness. The amount of reserve generation capacity required in a control area heavily depends on prediction quality which constitutes the need for high quality predictions. This article is about the influence of prediction quality on the amount of reserve generation capacity required in a control area. The algorithms for the assessment of required reserve generation capacity known from literature use the variation calculus technique to account for the aforementioned unpredictable events and prediction errors. In this article, an extension to a convolution-based method is presented in which the uncertainties of the predictions are expressed using intervals. Each parameter is represented by an independent dimension, assuming statistical independence among them. This allows the distinct analysis of each parameter’s influence on the amount of required reserve generation capacity. In addition, two methods for the visualization of the multi-dimensional results are presented, allowing a comprehensive analysis of the parameters’ influences. Standard distribution functions are used to represent the parameters for the simulation and the results are shown as probability density functions of possible imbalances. Based on forecasts of the development of conventional power plants and regenerative generation in the years 2020, 2030 and 2040, the required control power of the future German transmission system is calculated. Influences and dependencies are identified with the extended convolution-based method.     

Wettbewerbsfähigkeit der Photovoltaik im deutschen Energiemix – Neudefinition des Ansatzes der Netzparität

Photovoltaics are one of the fastest growing energy sources in the world. Despite high costs and a limited energy yield, attractive support schemes particularly the German renewable energy law have paved the way for the strong market growth of this technology within the last decade. Here the question arises as to when photovoltaics will reach a competitive level in Germany without the support of subsidies. The prominent grid parity approach is simple and considered critical in this discussion. It is critical because of the different references regarding the costs of electricity generated by a newly installed PV system and the electricity price of private households, which consists of electricity generation, distribution, sales as well as taxes and duties on the one hand. On the other hand, there are different time references in the calculation of electricity generation costs and electricity prices of private households. Transferring the approach of Levelized Costs of Electricity (LCOE) to all power generation plants within the energy mix means a redefinition of the grid parity of photovoltaics will be carried out. Here the electricity generation costs of photovoltaics as well as the energy mix will be calculated in the same way. The LCOE calculation refers to the whole life cycle of every power generation plant. That is why a balance between the high investment costs of photovoltaics and the increasing operation costs of fossil fuelled power plants is made. It can be shown that the reaching of competitiveness of photovoltaics in Germany depends on structural changes in electricity generation and it is to be realized within the anticipated time frame until the year 2020.     

Environmental Tax Reform in the European Union: Impact on CO2 Emissions and the Economy

Economic instruments in environmental policy try to correct prices in order to internalise externalities. The environmental tax reform is a specific policy approach, which raises taxation of ‘bads’ such as resource use or emissions and reduces other taxes on ‘goods’ such as labour that are felt as a burden so that the total tax revenue remains constant. On a small scale some European countries introduced this instrument, and the results have been evaluated broadly positive by the literature. The paper at hand gives answers to the question, what might happen to CO₂ emissions and the economy, if this instrument would be used in all European countries in a scale that allows reaching the European CO₂ emission targets. The instrument of the analysis is the global economy-energy-environment model GINFORS. The simulation results show that the targets can be met with only small losses in GDP and gains in employment.     

Versorgungsqualit?t in der leitungsgebundenen Gasversorgung

The incentive regulation ordinance (Anreizregulierungsverordnung (ARegV)) stipulates the implementation of a quality regulation scheme for the second regulatory period gas (2013?C2018). This raises the issue how to specify, define and stimulate quality specifically for gas transportation and distribution. According to §§18?C20 ARegV, the dimensions ??reliability?? and ??network capacity?? need to be incorporated. Due to the lack of tangibility of quality in the gas sector, the issue of quality turns out to be much more complex than in the electricity sector where quality or??more specifically??reliability is mainly associated with the premise ??keeping the lights on??. In order to establish a first idea of the current situation in the area of quality in grid-bound gas supply, WIK conducted expert interviews with different stakeholders from industry and science. Following this first step, a workshop took place to present the results from the survey and to further discuss the main issues. Overall, it turned out from the discussion that the definition and differentiation of the different quality dimensions is very complex due to the heterogeneous views of the stakeholders on priorities and incentives. Two different attitudes towards the regulation of the quality dimension reliability emerged in the interviews. One part of the group advocated the implementation of a corresponding q-element in the regulatory formula, whereas the other part preferred a quality monitoring without regulatory effects. Overall, the interviews and the workshop served its purpose in collecting the different opinions of the stakeholders. Based on these results, the discussion can be deepened. To approach the topic, it will be shown how the regulators in the Netherlands and Hungary converted the rarely practiced quality regulation into practice.     

Ökonomische Analyse der Erstnutzer von Elektrofahrzeugen

Plug-in hybrids and purely electric vehicles are currently being intensively discussed. The economic efficiency of these vehicles is essential for their future market success. As economic analyses of the specific driving profiles of customer groups in Germany have shown, economic efficiency depends on factors such as vehicle mileage, the share of urban driving and the share of electrical driving. For the first users of electric mobility, small, purely electrically-operated town cars will be offered in 2015. About 4 % of German car drivers were found to be suitable for such a car. Later on, plug-in hybrids will also become attractive for certain consumer groups, in particular for full-time workers from communities with fewer than 100,000 residents. Less suited are car drivers in large cities as they do not usually drive sufficient distances for an electric car to pay off, often do not have access to their own private parking and the majority only own one vehicle. Housewives/househusbands and pensioners comprise other groups not considered to be suitable as the first users of electric vehicles from a purely economic perspective.     

Mögliche Entwicklung der Umlage zur Förderung der Stromerzeugung aus erneuerbaren Energien durch das Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetz bis 2018

As a result of the strong growth of renewable energies in the German electricity sector within the last few years, the allocation of renewable costs to the consumer (RES-E apportionment) has been set to 5.277 ct/kWh for 2013 (ÜNB, Pressemitteilung der Übertragungsnetzbetreiber zur veröffentlichten EEG-Umlage 2013, 2012a). This article presents potential developments in the costs of promoting renewable energy and the RES-E apportionment in Germany using three different scenarios. Each of the scenarios considers different trends with respect to further deployment of renewable energies, wholesale prices and electricity demand. Due to the underlying uncertainties surrounding these major parameters, the scenarios show a wide range for the RES-E apportionment. A reduction of the RES-E apportionment can be reached if we consider an increase in wholesale prices. However, the scenarios indicate a further increase in the RES-E apportionment, where the amount heavily depends on the further deployment of renewable energies and the development of wholesale prices. Despite the reduction of feed-in tariffs, a main contributor to an increase in the RES-E apportionment is still the ongoing deployment of photovoltaics (PV). In order to prevent a further cost increase without inhibiting renewable targets, it may be worth focusing on comparably cheaper technologies in the further deployment of renewable energies.     

Die Berücksichtigung von Spitzenkappung in der Anreizregulierung

The model of temporary disconnection of renewable energy in case of high energy injection and low demand is thought to be an effective method for reducing investments in electricity networks. However, plant owners need to be reimbursed for foregone sales. According to the currently discussed draft of the Amendment of the German Incentive Regulation Ordinance, these costs can be rolled over to the consumer on a yearly basis, but are part of the cost benchmark with their base year values. This paper shows that this model sets incentives for optimal investments in electricity networks, but violates the participation constraint: Net operators will be exposed to a severe risk of worsening their position in the cost benchmark. In expectation, they will generate losses and investors have no incentive to invest in electricity networks. This problem can be solved by allowing net operators to roll over costs to customers, while considering average reimbursement fees in the cost benchmark.     

Auswirkungen der europäischen Energiepolitik auf den deutschen Atomausstieg

After the election of the new German government on September 27th, 2009, the nuclear power phase-out decision appears back on top of the political agenda. Hence, an up to date survey of all relevant arguments seems absolutely necessary. In that matter, the scope should not remain national but should also take the European dimension into account.On the European level, a position in favour of nuclear power becomes apparent. Recent political decisions among the 27 member states show a renaissance of atomic energy. EU-Parliament, EU-Commission and EU-Council have all voted for the extensive, long term use of nuclear power in Europe. With its phase-out decision still valid, Germany is part of a minority in Europe.Germany is part of a European market for electricity whose national barriers will blur more and more in the future to form a fully integrated pan-European market in the end. Since nuclear power will provide a major share of the European electricity generation mix, Germany will always be supplied with atomic energy in the long term. This is imperative, regardless of nuclear power plants operating within the borders of Germany or not. Shutting down these facilities in Germany will hence not make the risks associated with atomic energy disappear. It will only add energy-technical challenges to assure long-term supply security. Thus, the new German government should withdraw the phase-out decision.     

Portfoliomanagement: Optimale Energiebeschaffung unter Berücksichtigung von Risiken

In the past, Energy Utility Companies (EUC) in Germany bought their electricity demand with a strategy that used planned sales volumes as control factor for procurement. However, this approach has the disadvantage that the open position defined as the difference between electricity sold to the customer and electricity bought at the wholesale market is not monitored. Thus, the price risk is measured incorrectly. To avoid these unnecessary risks, we propose that optimal portfolio management in liberalised energy markets should constantly monitor electricity sales volumes and electricity bought. This approach has the advantage that the open position and thus the price risk can be computed continuously and can thus be managed and monitored. However, higher data requirements have to be fulfilled when this strategy is applied. Nonetheless, the process is manageable with modern IT-systems. The main ideas in this paper can be transferred to the gas market.     

Verteilungsaspekte einer Harmonisierung der europäischen Klimaschutzmaßnahmen

The ongoing harmonisation of the European energy sector has led to gains from growth and increasing efficiencies by creating a common European internal market. However, there are new tendencies running against harmonisation in recent years, currently for example in the area of climate protection and the associated expansion of renewable energies. In addition to the role of national targets for climate protection in combination with a European emissions trading system, carrying out the related measures leads to distributional effects, both between countries and between stakeholders (e. g., producers and consumers) in these countries. We first analyse the impact of a non-harmonised national promotion schemes for renewable energies on electricity and CO₂ prices in different countries. Then we illustrate the impact of harmonisation measures on producers and consumers in the participating countries. The analysis shows that these measures are indeed economically beneficial, but that—depending on the actual configuration—they can also lead to disadvantages for individual actors. Analysing and discussing these effects leads to a better assessment of the impact of certain measures and enables a better classification of individual market participants’ responses and opinions.     

Potential für Kraftwerke mit Kohlendioxidrückhaltung aus Systemperspektive

System considerations support a discussion of selected factors influencing the economic viability of power plants with CO₂ sequestration technology (CCS, for carbon dioxide capture and storage), leading to conclusions when and how much of their potential may conceivably be realised. The CCS realisation is interconnected to investments into other technologies, to technological advances, to the price of CO₂ emission certificates, to plant dispatch, and to the prices of power. In a system of CCS potential realisation by individual actors, these variables are endogenous. This article is mainly about them. CCS is more of a long term option than a bridge technology. In contrast to other CO₂ reduction technologies, both economic operation and economic investment necessarily require high CO₂ certificate prices. An increase in power plant efficiency without CCS, switching to natural gas and power generation from renewable sources involve more mature technologies that may benefit from further application within the coming decades. Even far beyond 2020 this effect may delay and dampen the potential of CCS technology. An economic or market potential is dependent to a lesser extent on assumptions about future barriers but rather on their dynamic interactions.     

Energy Costs in Germany—Developments, Drivers and International Comparison

This article summarises results a study undertaken by Frontier Economics and the EWI for the German Ministry of Economics. The study makes progress in creating transparency of energy supply prices and cost (for electricity, gas and oil products) in Germany in an international context. In Germany most retail prices have increased significantly since 1998 and are at the highest level for most customer groups and products in international comparison. Main drivers that differentiate prices internationally are, duties and taxes, network tariffs, political interference with retail prices and the degree of end customer competition. Based on this analysis the authors recommend a review of the consistency of policy measures (especially taxes, duties, levies and subsidies) with the energy policy goals of price competitiveness, security of supply and environmental sustainability. Furthermore, the authors suggest further refining network regulation, enhancing competition in the retail sector and improving transparency of price information.     

Regulierung, Effizienz und das Anreizdilemma bei Investitionen in intelligente Netze

In this paper, we survey from a theoretical point of view to what extend cost-based and incentive-based regulatory regimes stimulate investments. For the purpose of this analysis, we furthermore differentiate by different efficiency measures, i.e. allocative efficiency, productive efficiency and dynamic efficiency and analyse to what extend each efficiency measure is stimulated by the regulatory regime. Eventually, we analyse to what extend regulatory incentives for network innovation in a smart grid context exist and to what extend different forms of regulation stimulate dynamic efficiency.     

Bedeutung von CO2-Transport- und Speicheroptionen im europäischen Energiesystem

Aiming the stabilisation of the CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere at 450 ppm, a strong climate policy in the EU-27 will be required. Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) and the building up of a CO₂ pipeline system will be one option to avoid climate change. The analysis of the potential CO₂ storage options in Europe shows a huge potential in the North Sea and their neighbouring countries and only less potentials in the southern European countries. A scenario analysis using the European energy system model TIMES PanEU shows that the installation of CO₂ transport pipelines for cross boarder exchange of CO₂ from power plants located next to the boarder could be one possible infrastructure solution. This solution is a cost efficient option which will be used mainly by the North Sea neighbouring countries (Germany, UK, the Netherlands, Denmark) and Poland. A central pipeline grid in the North Sea for the usage of huge storage options like the Utsira formation will be important in the future for countries with limited CO₂ storage capacities (like Belgium or the Netherlands). If cheap storage options like onshore Aquifers are not available, the design of central CO₂ pipeline grids has a strong impact on the power plant structure, the electricity and CO₂ certificate price. Based on a limited availability of onshore CO₂ storages the electricity price will increase by up to 16 € 2007/MWh and the CO₂-certificate price will rise by additional 35 € 2007/t CO₂ in 2050.     

Das Glühbirnendekret der EU – ein unnötiges Verbot

Since September 2009, the European market for household lamps is subject to EU regulation 244/2009, which enforces the gradual phase-out of incandescent light bulbs. As of September 2012, only energy-efficient lighting sources such as halogen lamps, light-emitting diodes (LED), or compact fluorescent lamps—often referred to as energy-saving lamps—will be allowed for sale. The EU’s justification for the phase-out of conventional light bulbs maintains that a reduction in the electricity consumed will not only lead to lower energy costs for private households and industrial consumers, but at the same time lead to a decrease in greenhouse gas emissions. This article discusses possible reasons for the slow market diffusion of energy-saving lamps and shows that the investment in energy-efficient lamps does not necessarily lead to significant cost reductions in every case. Drawing on some illustrative examples, we demonstrate that the use of cheaper incandescent bulbs instead of energy-saving lamps can be economically rational in cases of rather low usage times, in which the higher initial purchasing price might only pay off after very long time spans. Furthermore, due to the coexistence with the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), this regulation will not lead to any additional reduction of carbon emissions exceeding the amount caused by the ETS. We thus conclude that the general ban of incandescent light bulbs is inappropriate and should be abolished by the Commission.     

Dynamische Berechnung der Stromgestehungskosten von Energiespeichern für die Energiesystemmodellierung und -einsatzplanung

Due to the transition in energy supply from fossil to renewable energy sources, energy storage systems are getting more and more important for the security of power supply. Therefore also the modeling of those storage systems in energy system modeling needs to be further discussed. This paper focuses on the levelized costs of energy storage. In the beginning, the existing approaches of calculating those costs are analyzed in a literature review. It will be shown that all of the approaches calculate the levelized costs on the basis of the energy storages’ lifetime. For the usage in energy system modeling it is mandatory that the calculation can be done for variable and shorter time periods. Therefore this work’s approach calculates the costs based on the time of operation in any period chosen. Additionally, the model can be used for any type of storage system. After introducing the mathematical model, the levelized costs of energy storage will be calculated to illustrate the models properties and then verified with reference load profiles for five different energy storage types. Following this, particular input parameters are varied and sensitivities are pointed out. Most of the programs for power plant dispatch calculations use linear or mixed integer linear programing algorithms. As the calculation of levelized costs of electricity is non-linear, most programs use fixed values during the whole time of simulation. In this article the integration of the presented approach into a linear optimization program via recursive and shifted calculation is elaborated. Results are presented and discussed.     

Vergleichende Analyse der technisch-wirtschaftlichen Bedingungen von PV-Anlagen Mit Süd- und Ost-West-Ausrichtung

PV power plants with east-west-orientation have a lower energy production per installed kW_p due to their orientation than those facing to south. Thus they need a reduction of costs to compensate the lack of energy production and to have the same cost effectiveness as PV plants with south-orientation. This paper tries to show, how and if PV plants with east-west-orientation can be more profitable than PV plants with south-orientation. Therefore, the energy production was simulated for PV plants with an orientation to east-west and to south with different inclinations in a place with high irradiation (Freiburg) and a place with low irradiation (Hamburg). A calculation of profitability was made for each PV plant including energy production as well as ascertained costs. This are the main outcomes:

The profitability of PV plants with east-west-orientation is not better than the profitability of PV plants with south-orientation.

The profitability of PV plants with east-west-orientation is better than the one of PV plants with south-orientation when the costs of mounting systems are much lower for east-west mounting-systems than for mounting-systems with south-orientation and the costs of grid-connection and rent are high too.

The profitability of PV plants with east-west-orientation is higher in regions with low irradiation.

     

Klimawandel: Wahrnehmung und Einschätzungen der deutschen Haushalte im Herbst 2012

This article presents results that are obtained from a survey among private households in Germany, which took place in the fall of 2012. A key result is that in comparison with a range of other global challenges, respondents are less concerned with fighting climate change, a remarkable outcome given that the share of climate change skeptics in the survey is likely to be lower than in the population owing to selfselection problems. This article addresses such self-selection problems, as well as other shortcomings of surveys, and provides for a discussion on how to cope with them.