中国大石油企业面临的不确定环境及其应对

2009年的全球经济环境不确定性加大,中国大石油企业面临的外部环境比以往任何时候都更为严峻。从目前来看,在影响中国大石油企业未来发展的关键因素中,全球经济发展状况、中国经济发展状况、国际油价水平、全球重点油气资源国投资环境这4个因素具有较大的不确定性。对此,运用情景规划法进行分析,得到4种可能出现的外部环境情景：经济快速复苏,为企业发展重新注入活力;经济发展遭受挫折,但仍具复苏能力;全球经济环境恶化,企业发展困难重重;经济发展出现逆转和长期停顿。针对可能出现的每一种情景,中国的大石油企业可以采取不同的战略举措。建议企业运用情景规划工具进行系统研究,提出符合自身特点的系统的战略举措,并对低成本战略和先进技术培育给予高度重视。     

战略投资决策中实物期权与情景分析的整合研究

随着市场经济的发展,企业面临着愈来愈多的不确定性,如何利用这些不确定性进行战略投资,就成为企业成败的关键。文章针对实物期权、情景分析两种方法的特点,将他们整合在一起来分析投资决策,形成一个可以指导企业进行战略投资决策的总体方法。     

伦敦商学院 战略协调藏“金”

战略协调能够让企业更快地进入市场、适应环境变化、减小公司的投资压力,因而能够让公司获得更多机会。那么,战略协调可以解答一些什么问题呢？     

企业经营战略现代化及其在我国的实践——以国际化战略为例

经营战略现代化是企业适应环境变化,持续革新经营战略和完善战略管理的过程,也是企业不断将战略创新成果应用于实践,接受实践检验的过程.本文提出了基于衡量尺度和战略要素两个维度的研究方法,并用于分析发展战略和竞争战略的变化趋势.在概括我国企业经营战略现代化实践状况的基础上,从本土化战略、跨国并购、全球战略联盟等方面分析了企业实施国际化战略的成功经验.     

试论企业财务战略

与改革开放前相比，企业运营环境已发生了深刻的变化。这种环境状况的变化对企业的经营活动既蕴藏着极大的生机，也潜伏着很大的危机，使企业探索成功的道路变得异常很难。所以企业要依靠创造性地适应环境并向环境挑战的战略行动，把战略管理作为管理的中心问题。战略管理的广泛推行需要研究财务战略，要求企业不能只从单纯的财务观点出发进行理财，追求财务的自身的最优化。战略管理条件下的企业的财务管理必须具备战略思想，要理解企业战略，支持企业战略，从战略的全局来考虑和设计企业的财务行为。只有这样，才能经营出成功的企业，也才真正能把财务管理本身的作用发挥得更好。     

数字经济发展与企业税收不确定性——基于企业低成本战略的调节作用北大核心

企业税收不确定性反映了企业在现行税收政策和制度下的纳税遵从成本。在数字经济强势发展的背景下,本文研究数字经济发展是否有效降低了企业税收不确定性。以2013~2020年我国沪深A股上市公司为样本,实证研究发现:(1)数字经济发展能够降低企业税收不确定性;(2)数字经济发展通过提升企业会计信息透明度、提高税收征管效率、改善地区营商环境降低企业税收不确定性;(3)异质性分析表明数字经济发展对企业税收不确定性的抑制作用在衰退期企业和中部地区的企业更为显著;(4)企业低成本战略在数字经济发展与企业税收不确定性的关系中发挥了负向调节作用。本文研究有助于企业管理层制定差异化的税收战略,缓解企业税收风险。     

企业风险管理的种类及其防范

<正>一、战略风险战略风险与企业长期战略目标的实现有关,很大程度上由外部环境的不确定性以及市场、竞争、科技和法规这四个重要动因所致。包括市场需求锐减,针对对手采取的竞争手段没有做出有效的反映,执行并购时发生问题等。当竞争环境发生变化,损害了企业创造价值和建立产品或服务差异化经营的能力,便会形成战略风险。例如,竞争对手开发更优秀     

浅论江南航天集团战略管理

企业战略是企业面对激烈变化、严峻挑战的经营环境,为求得长期生存和不断发展而进行的总体性谋划。具体地讲,战略是在符合和保证实现企业使命的条件下,在充分利用环境中存在的各种机会和创造新机会的基础上,确定企业同环境的关系,规定企业从事的经营范围、成长方向和竞争对策,合理地调动企业结构和分配企业的全部资源．从而使企业获得某种竞争优势。因此,战略管理对一个企业(集团)的生存和发展来说,具有根本性、决定性的作用。     

如何让战略犯错更少

企业的发展战略已不再是企业自身的战略,而是广义上的协同战略,企业只有注重自然规律和社会发展规律,重视领导力变革,才能科学理性地勾画未来的蓝图面对全球政治经济环境更加复杂多变的形势和未来发展的不确定性,国有企业需要做出怎样的领导力变革才能更好地适应未来发展的趋势?过去引领我们企业走向成功的方法今后是否依然奏效?今     

施工企业战略转型动因

适应环境是转型的原因,更是转型的目的所在。近几年来,我国施工企业中,有相当一部分已经开始了业务层面的战略转型。当然,也有一些企业,依然固守原有的经营领域,并没有进行业务层面的战略转     

Evaluating Product Plans Using Real Options

Product planning helps a company to strategically plan its current and future product platforms and offer product variants in the marketplace. Product platforming is widely touted as a successful strategy for mass customization. However, due diligence should be exercised before implementing any product platform strategy. The product planning exercise should account for future uncertainties. Traditional financial tools such as the net present value (NPV) are static since they do not compensate for any exogenous and endogenous uncertainties during the course of the project. The crux of the problem lies in the evaluation model that is used for evaluating the product planning projects. While many view uncertainties in a product planning project as problematic, it can also be viewed as a source of new opportunities. We argue that uncertainties should be an integral part of the evaluation model. If the future possibilities (or strategic options) are not considered in the evaluation model, a corporation may face a “myopic syndrome”.

In this article, we consider two important product planning decisions—platform decisions and product variant decisions. The platform decision involves strategic selection of a concept product platform from various possible alternative concept product platforms. The product variant decision involves deciding how long a company should continue to offer its current product variant in the marketplace and whether the existing product variant should be discontinued, scaled down, or scaled up with additional product features. To address the two aforementioned decisions, we developed a real options–based methodology that considers technical, project implementation, and market-related uncertainties. The proposed methodology uses a binomial and quadranomial lattice approach to build a decision tree. Product planning decisions at various decision tree nodes are evaluated using a risk-neutral option valuation methodology. We demonstrate the working of the proposed methodology using an illustrative example.     

基于期权博弈的企业价值边界均衡演化分析

本文应用期权博弈理论,对企业在面对市场环境不确定和竞争者行为不确定情况下企业价值边界的动态均衡演化过程做了深入分析。结果表明,企业价值边界确定在企业等待的期权价值与抢先的战略价值相均衡之处。企业抢先行动或等待都会引起不确定因素的变化,从而引起上述两类价值曲线的位移或曲率变化,并使得企业价值边界表现出动态均衡变化。而不同的不确定状况又决定了企业不同的策略行动,即是变得强硬而抢先,还是变得温和而等待,从而企业可以通过相机抉择保持可持续竞争优势,实现企业价值最大化。     

Communication and attention dynamics: An attention‐based view of strategic change

Research Summary : The attention‐based view (ABV) has highlighted the role of organizational attention in strategic decision making and adaptation. The tendency to view communication channels as “pipes and prisms” for information processing has, however, limited its ability to address strategic change. We propose a broader role for communication as a process by which actors can attend to and engage with organizational and environmental issues and initiatives and argue that such a view can significantly advance understanding of strategic change. On this basis, we offer suggestions for future research on communication practices, vocabularies, rhetorical tactics, and talk and text in shaping organizational attention in strategic change. We also maintain that this enhanced view of the ABV can help advance research on dynamic capabilities, strategy processes, strategy‐as‐practice, and behavioral strategy. Managerial Summary : To further enhance our capabilities to manage strategic change and renewal processes in organizations, we need a better understanding of how to manage organizational attention. In this article, we highlight the importance of understanding the role of communication and discuss the use of different communication practices, vocabularies, rhetorical tactics, and talk and text as possible levers that can be used to dynamically shape organizational attention. We call for further research to advance the understanding of how these levers can be used to influence the ways in which different sets of strategic issues, initiatives, and action alternatives are handled. We believe that such an enhanced view of organizational attention can enable the development of new, improved strategy practices to manage strategic change and renewal processes.     

Strategy and Trade Union Effectiveness in a Neo-liberal Environment

In the absence of state sponsorship, unions must become more effective in the workplace or suffer the inevitable consequences. The analysis of union strategy and effectiveness, however, presents special difficulties. We adopt a strategic choice perspective, defining strategy as a framework of critical, enacted choices about the ends and means of an organization. For unions in a neo-liberal context, this means that strategy can be described in terms of the nexus between two complex dimensions: union-worker relations and union-employer relations. On this basis, we identify four broad patterns of union strategic choice in the New Zealand environment: classic, paper tiger, consultancy, and partnership unionism. Those patterns in which union-worker relations rely on 'servicing' are seen as fatally flawed at worst, and strategically vulnerable at best. On the other hand, those patterns in which union-worker relations are more securely based on servicing complemented with robust forms of organization also contain strategic tensions. These must be managed carefully if unions are to become more effective. While illustrated with New Zealand case studies, this framework provides lines of analysis for the strategic review of unions in neo-liberal contexts more generally.     

How new top managers use control systems as levers of strategic renewal

This research is a longitudinal study of 10 newly-appointed top managers; the research focuses on understanding (1) their business vision and strategy and (2) how they use formal control systems as levers of strategic change and renewal. The results reported in the paper are based on data collected over a period of approximately 18 months following the appointment of each new manager. Analysis of the data suggests that control systems are important levers used to manage both evolutionary and revolutionary change. In situations of strategic change, control systems are used by top managers to formalize beliefs, set boundaries on acceptable strategic behavior, define and measure critical performance variables, and motivate debate and discussion about strategic uncertainties. In addition to traditional measuring and monitoring functions, control systems are used by top managers to overcome organizational inertia; communicate new strategic agendas; establish implementation timetables and targets; and ensure continuing attention to new strategic initiatives.     

Metagame analysis of competitive strategy

The need for effective competitive strategy planning for a firm's survival and growth has long been recognized to be important. The identification and selection of good, or robust, market strategies must be based on the anticipation of the likely strategies of significant competitors, who should ideally be visualized as undergoing a similar process of assessing their own and other's goals and probable strategies. This paper reviews and evaluates the traditional economic and game theoretic approaches to competitive strategy analysis and presents an application of metagame analysis—an approach which has not previously been used in the strategic business environment. This approach, which appears to have some significant advantages over both economic and game theoretic approaches has been utilized and evaluated in a business firm (Dutta and King, forthcoming). An illustration of its use, which is based on a real-world application, is discussed.     

Environment-strategy coalignment: An empirical test of its performance implications

The positive performance impact of a coalignment between the environment and strategy of a business is an important theoretical proposition in strategic management. In spite of its importance and intuitive appeal, the extent of empirical support is equivocal and riddled with problems of conceptualizing and testing for coalignment. This paper evaluates alternate approaches to testing such a proposition and argues in favor of specifying coalignment as ‘profile deviation’, which states that coalignment is the degree to which strategic resource deployments adhere to an ‘ideal profile’ for a given environment. Subsequently, this proposition is tested across two time periods, and eight distinct environments in two different samples drawn from the PIMS data base. Results, which were generally robust across the two periods, strongly support the proposition of a positive performance impact of environment-strategy coalignment. Implications and research directions are developed.     

Strategy and the environment: A study of corporate responses to crises

This paper describes an empirical study that examines the relationship between the type of external environment in which a firm operates and the repertoire of strategic responses the firm develops to cope with crises. The findings suggest that an executive's propensity to adopt a particular strategic posture depends on his perceptions of how well his firm can control its environment and on the costs of introducing change into the organization.     

The Impact of the Corporate Mind‐set on New Product Launch Strategy and Market Performance

In the last decade, there has been an increasing interest in the link between new product launch strategy and market performance. So far, new product launch research has focused on this performance relationship without giving much attention to background factors that can facilitate or inhibit successful launch strategies. However, investigating such antecedents that set the framework in which different strategic launch decisions enable or prevent the market performance of new products is useful for enhancing the current state of knowledge. Drawing on the concept of a firm's orientation, the present study discusses the influence of the corporate mind‐set on new product launch strategy and market performance. It is hypothesized that the capability to successfully launch new products is based on the interplay between a firm's mind‐set (i.e., an analytical, risk‐taking, and aggressive posture) and its strategic launch decisions on setting launch objectives, selecting target markets, and positioning the new product. A research model with mediating effects is proposed, where the corporate mind‐set determines the launch strategy decisions, which in turn impact market performance. The model is tested with data on 113 industrial new products launched in business‐to‐business markets in Germany using a multiple informant approach. The results support the mediated model as the dimensions of the corporate mind‐set have a significant impact on most strategic launch decisions, which in turn significantly contribute to market performance. It is found that while an analytical posture relates to all three strategic launch decisions, risk taking and an aggressive posture have a significant impact on two, respectively one, launch strategy elements. These findings confirm the importance of investigating antecedents for a successful new product launch, as the corporate mind‐set serves as a background resource that sets the framework for successful new product launch decisions. In the final section implications for research and managerial practice as well as limitations of this research are provided.     

中国产业发展的道路和战略选择

中国作为一个发展中国家,在经济发展的一定时期,其工业化过程必然表现为发达工业化国家的产业转移。因此,中国大多数产业的发展将经历三个阶段:幼稚期、成熟期和强壮期。为了向产业发展的第三阶段拓展,企业战略大致可有三种选择:品牌导向战略、产能导向战略和因势借势战略。战略选择的关键可能并不是什么样的战略更正确和更可取,而在于谁有动机实施某种战略。企业战略选择不仅仅以利益关切性为转移,而且是由纯理性因素和越理性因素所共同决定的。从一定意义上可以说,纯理性是世俗的理性和无差异的理性,越理性是信仰的理性和有差异的理性。因此,企业战略选择决不仅仅是纯理性的逻辑推演结果,而是以一定的价值观为基础的“理想”追求和“使命”驱动。国家产业发展战略选择也具有某种相似之处,也总是基于一定的理性基础,而这种理性不仅仅以纯理性判断为准则,而且必然含有强烈的越理性因素,包括民族的、伦理的以及各种人文的价值观准则。因此,可行的产业发展战略必须以科学的发展观为基础,其价值体现不仅是顺应客观规律,而且要满足于实现一定的社会合意性目标。