The outlook for Asian dairy markets: The role of demographics,income, and prices

The paper first presents a 10-year outlook for major Asian dairy markets (China, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam) based on a world dairy model. Then, using Heien and Wessells’s (1988) [Heien, D.M., Wessells, C., 1988. The demand for dairy products: structure, prediction, and decomposition. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 70, 219-28] technique, dairy product consumption growth is decomposed into contributions generated by income growth, population growth, price change, and urbanization and these contributions are quantified. Using the world dairy model, the paper also analyzes the impacts of alternative assumptions of higher income levels and technology development in Asia on Asian dairy consumptions and world dairy prices. The outlook projects that Asian dairy consumption will continue to grow strongly in the next decade. The consumption decomposition suggests that the growth would be mostly driven by income and population growth and, as a result, would raise world dairy prices. The simulation results show that technology improvement in Asian countries would dampen world dairy prices and meanwhile boost domestic dairy consumption.     

The Danish tax on saturated fat – Short run effects on consumption,substitution patterns and consumer prices of fats

Denmark introduced a tax on saturated fat in food products with effect from October 2011. The objective of this paper is to make an effect assessment of this tax for some of the product categories most significantly affected by the new tax, namely fats such as butter, butter-blends, margarine and oils. This assessment is done by conducting an econometric analysis on weekly food purchase data from a large household panel dataset (GfK Panel Services Denmark), spanning the period from January 2008 until July 2012.The econometric analysis suggest that the introduction of the tax on saturated fat in food products has had some effects on the market for the considered products, in that the level of consumption of fats dropped by 10–15%. Furthermore, the analysis points at shifts in demand from high price supermarkets towards low-price discount stores – at least for some types of oils and fats, a shift that seems to have been utilised by discount chains to raise the prices of butter and margarine by more than the pure tax increase. Due to the relatively short data period with the tax being active, interpretation of these findings from a long-run perspective should be done with considerable care. It is thus recommended to repeat – and broaden – the analysis at a later stage, when data are available for a longer period after the introduction of the fat tax.     

Consequences of further opening of the Korean dairy market

This paper develops a simulation of Korean dairy policy that is tailored to the data, institutions, and policies in South Korea. It compares potential effects of changes in trade and domestic policy to baseline projections to 2015. Beverage milk continues to be supplied from domestic sources, implying imports compete in the manufacture of tradable products. We model manufactured dairy product supply, demand, and trade on a milk fat and non-fat-solid component basis reflecting product fungibility over the 10-year horizon used for our trade policy analysis. We find that if the domestic price support is removed with no change in trade policy, the market price of raw milk falls by about 2% and raw milk production declines by 4.5%. Under substantial tariff cuts of 30–40% with no effective change in domestic dairy policy, Korean fat and non-fat-solid prices fall by 7% and 11%, fat and non-fat-solid imports rise by 9% and 7% and Korea raw milk production falls by about 2% relative to the baseline. Prices of Korean farmer-owned dairy inputs, labor, and capital fall by about 1%.     

How can the EU climate targets be met? A combined analysis of technological and demand-side changes in food and agriculture

To meet the 2 °C climate target, deep cuts in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will be required for carbon dioxide from fossil fuels but, most likely, also for methane and nitrous oxide from agriculture and other sources. However, relatively little is known about the GHG mitigation potential in agriculture, in particular with respect to the combined effects of technological advancements and dietary changes. Here, we estimate the extent to which changes in technology and demand can reduce Swedish food-related GHG emissions necessary for meeting EU climate targets. This analysis is based on a detailed representation of the food and agriculture system, using 30 different food items.We find that food-related methane and nitrous oxide emissions can be reduced enough to meet the EU 2050 climate targets. Technologically, agriculture can improve in productivity and through implementation of specific mitigation measures. Under optimistic assumptions, these developments could cut current food-related methane and nitrous oxide emissions by nearly 50%. However, also dietary changes will almost certainly be necessary. Large reductions, by 50% or more, in ruminant meat (beef and mutton) consumption are, most likely, unavoidable if the EU targets are to be met. In contrast, continued high per-capita consumption of pork and poultry meat or dairy products might be accommodated within the climate targets. High dairy consumption, however, is only compatible with the targets if there are substantial advances in technology. Reducing food waste plays a minor role for meeting the climate targets, lowering emissions only by an additional 1–3%.     

A new look at residential electricity demand using household expenditure data

Many electricity demand estimates have been obtained based on the assumption that consumers optimize with respect to known marginal prices, but increasing empirical evidence suggests that consumers are more likely to respond to average prices. Under this assumption, this paper develops a new strategy based on Generalized Method of Moments to estimate household electricity demand. Our demand estimation approach uses publicly available expenditure data and utility-level consumption data from several major U.S. cities, complementing studies that use individual billing data which are richer yet often proprietary. We estimate the price elasticity near − 0.50, which is at the upper end (in magnitude) among the estimates from previous studies. This could have important implications for policy analysis such as those on climate policies that may affect electricity prices.     

Prognose der Kraftstoffpreisentwicklung und ihrer Auswirkungen auf die Nachfrage nach Bahntransportleistungen in Österreich

Due to increasing crude oil consumption, especially of the fast growing Asian economies, decreasing production rates of several oil fields and increasing exploration costs, the oil price reached a new all time high in July 2008. The present world wide economic crisis caused a sharp decrease of the oil prices, nevertheless, prices will rise again with economic recovery. In this paper, long term projections of the International Energy Agency (IEA) and future contracts notations are employed to estimate oil price development until the year 2020. We estimate the price transmission of crude oil prices to Austrian retail diesel and gasoline prices and combine the estimation results with long term projections of the crude oil price. These projections are used to analyze the effect of rising oil prices on Austrian railway demand. The effect of increasing mineral oil taxes with the aim of an increasing internalisation of the external costs of road traffic on railway demand is discussed.     

Dairy food consumption,supply, and policy in Japan

We investigate Japanese dairy markets. We first provide an overview of consumer demand and how it evolved after World War II. Using historical data and econometric estimates of Japanese dairy demand, we identify economic, cultural and demographic forces that have been shaping consumption patterns. Then we summarize the characteristics of Japanese milk production and dairy processing and policies affecting them. We then describe the import regime and trade flows in dairy products. The paper concludes with policy recommendations of how to reform the Japanese dairy sector.     

Got milk? The rapid rise of China’s dairy sector and its future prospects

This paper synthesizes recent research and new empirical findings to build a more comprehensive understanding of developments in China’s dairy sector. China’s tremendous rise in dairy demand has been driven by several mutually reinforcing factors: including rapid income growth, promotion by the government and dairy industry, changes in urban lifestyles, and the development of new, more sophisticated marketing channels. Domestic milk output has grown to satisfy rising demand largely by increasing the dairy herd. Substantial increases in productivity have been achieved through technology adoption, but there is evidence that the torrid growth has created inefficiencies because adaptations to marketing rules, infrastructure, and institutions have not kept pace with the changing environment. These results suggest there is ample room for future growth in both domestic milk production and dairy demand, but multinational firms and imported products will likely play and increasing role as China’s dairy market continues to develop.     

基于CGE模型的资源税改革对能源行业的影响研究——以煤炭行业为例

资源的过度使用导致经济发展不可持续和环境的恶化,税收具有较好的调节作用, 年内进行资源税改革已经列入计划日程。 由于煤炭在我国能源消耗中所占比例超过70%, 资源税改革会对煤炭需求和价格等产生影响。 基于 CGE 模型, 分析了不同资源税税率情境下我国煤炭需求和煤炭价格的变化趋势。 研究结果发现需求短期内会继续上升, 长期由于产业结构变化将会下降, 在价格上短期内将上升, 长期将下降。 因此, 应该早日推出资源税改革, 提高资源税税率, 清理煤炭企业不合理的负担等。     

Food demand studies in Sub-Saharan Africa: a survey of empirical evidence

The recent empirical food demand studies on Sub-Saharan Africa show significant advances in demand specification and methodology, especially in the application of less restrictive and theoretically consistent flexible functional forms. The findings to date establish some broad patterns on effect of income, household demography and life cycle, location, and prices on food demand patterns. However, the numerical values of the demand estimates are less generalizable because of an insufficient number of data points to separate the true demand component from other confounding factors, which are linked to differences in modeling and estimation of demand relations. The priority for future research is to generate sufficiently detailed demand estimates that have a high utility for disaggregated policy analysis, but are based on a theoretically consistent and comparable methodology.