Declining Union Strength and Labor Cost Inflation in the 1980s

This paper explores the hypothesis that the declining strength of labor unions underlies the moderation of labor cost inflation in the 1980s, which is not explained by standard Phillips curve equations. Data on union density, union certification and decertification election results, and work stoppages are used as proxies for union strength. No support is found for the declining union strength hypothesis at either the aggregate level (using economywide or union-sector labor cost series) or the industry level.     

中国出口商品结构变化、产业结构优化升级与经济增长动态影响关系的实证研究——基于SVAR 模型

本文基于中国1985~2015 年的时间序列数据构建SVAR 模型，实证检验了出口商品结构变化、产业结构优化与经济增长之间的影响关系，并进行了脉冲响应分析和方差分解分析。结果表明: 当期的出口商品结构变化对经济增长与产业结构优化对出口商品结构变化均产生显著的正影响；从跨期来看，产业结构优化和经济增长冲击主要来自于自身，出口商品结构变化对产业结构优化与产业结构优化对经济增长产生的正向冲击与影响贡献率均较小。     

对中国总需求-总供给模型的再检验

利用最新的数据和更先进的计量方法,对中国的总供给和总需求函数进行了检验,得出的结论是：中国经济增长率与通货膨胀率的关系大致符合“附加预期的菲利普斯曲线”,中国经济的自然增长率大致为9％,在此基础上,通胀率与经济增长率有同向变动的关系。计量结果证实,上一年较高的通胀率会降低本年度的经济增长。     

The Significance of Working Time Arrangements Accompanying the Introduction of Teamworking: Evidence from Employees

A study is reported where the introduction of teamworking was accompanied by negotiated changes in working time patterns, involving some employees transferring to a 5‐shift, 8‐hour pattern, others to a 5‐shift, 12‐hour pattern. Employee attitude surveys before and after the changes show those moving to 12‐hour working much more satisfied with both working time and other changes, compared with those remaining on 8‐hour shifts. The creation of extra non‐work days was seen as the major advantage of the longer shifts, which compensated for the harder work regime identified under teamworking and the greater rigidity of the 5‐shift system. The findings underline the potential significance of working hours for employee support for broader changes in working practices. Possible explanations of why the longer shift pattern met with considerable support at one research site, but failed to gain support at a similar site elsewhere, are also explored.     

Adaptive Responses by Conservative and Entrepreneurial Firms

Over time, most corporate managements face the necessity of adapting their organizations to new environments. The style of such adaptation depends both on the original strategy of the company and its new objectives and environment. Necmi Karagozoglu and Warren Brown report the results of research which explores the changes in the organization's rate of innovation in response to environmental shifts. The changes in the innovative behavior of conservative firms (which emphasize stability, standardized products and cost-minimization strategies) are contrasted with that of entrepreneurial firms (which emphasize flexibility, rapid product change and state-of-the-art product features). Organizational competence and management's willingness to change are some of the key independent variables used in the project. The data are from a study of 56 manufacturing companies representing 26 industries.     

An alternative estimate of real inventory change for national economic accounts

In 1996, the Bureau of Economic Analysis adopted the Fisher index (a particular superlative index) for the national income and product accounts of the United States (NIPAs). This change was, on balance, a major improvement in the US national accounts, for it greatly improved the measurement of rates of growth of real economic aggregates. However, the change posed a special problem for inventories: the Fisher index is not suitable for time series that, like inventory change, exhibit changes in sign. The Fisher quantity relative is the geometric mean of Laspeyres and Paasche quantity relatives. When some detailed components of inventory change are negative, the Laspeyres and Paasche can easily differ in sign, in which case the Fisher index is undefined. In the NIPAs, this problem is avoided by measuring real-inventory change as the period-to-period change in inventory stocks. However, attempts to approximate real GDP by two-stage aggregation, combining this measure of inventory change and other major GDP subaggregates, show that the NIPA measures of real inventory change and of real GDP are inconsistent. This paper attempts to resolve the problem by investigating an alternative measure of inventory change.The alternative measure of inventory change considered is the difference between a Fisher index of inventory acquisitions and a Fisher index of inventory disposals. The consistency of this measure with real GDP is first examined analytically. It is shown that, for inventory changes likely to be observed, the approximation error in the aggregation of GDP components due to measuring inventory change as the difference between Fisher indexes of inventory acquisitions and disposals should be small. Second, the consistency of the alternative measure with real GDP is tested over the period 1977–98. The tests compare the actual approximation errors in the two-stage aggregation of GDP using inventory change based on the two methods: the present NIPA methodology and the alternative, Fisher difference method. These tests provide further support for the alternative method of estimating real inventory change.     

The anatomy of productivity growth slowdown and recovery in Canadian manufacturing, 1970–79

A micro-database that tracks individual establishments (plants) in the Canadian manufacturing sector through the 1970s is used to analyse the productivity growth slowdown and partial recovery that occurred over that decade. The data allow us to distinguish between the performance within individual plants and ‘structural’ changes, such as entry and exit and intra- and inter-industry shifts in the distribution of output as contributing factors to changes in productivity growth. The main finding is that fluctuations within plants were responsible for nearly all of the slowdown, and for most of the partial recovery, though the latter was also helped by a reallocation of output shares within manufacturing towards lower cost industries.     

A study on forward and backward linkage effects in South Korea's telecom industry across generations

The primary purpose of this study is to examine the spillover effect of South Korea's telecom industry on other industries until its evolution to the 4th generation. By using Input-Output Table Data to compute Forward and Backward Linkage Effects in South Korea's telecom industry throughout Generational Changes, this study aims to analyze South Korea's telecom industry's impacts and changes on upstream and downstream industries to offer implications for its evolution to the 5th generation. This study used empirical input-output data for the period between the years 2000–2014 to conduct input-output analysis to evaluate forward and backward linkages in South Korea's telecom industry for each generation of it. The results revealed that (1) Korea's telecom industry can be defined as a dependent manufacturing industry due to its below-average forward linkage and above-average backward linkage over the whole study period, and (2) backward linkage in South Korea's telecom industry was higher than the economy-wide average value during our study period although it decreased with the industry's generational shifts. The results indicate that telecommunications companies should create new markets in which they can propagate emerging technologies of the 4IR (4th Industrial Revolution) to other industries, in order to ensure that the 5th generation telecom industry maintain its position as a key industry. On the other hand, the government should make policies to support start-ups and SMEs in telecom industry and implement structural reforms in Korea's oligopolistic telecom market.     

Learning and product entry: How diversification patterns differ over firm age and knowledge domains in U.S. generic drug industry

This study uses learning theory to show how knowledge domains affect product extension decisions and how these product decisions change as firms age. Faced with the choice of new product‐markets, a firm might decide to introduce a similar product, by leveraging existing firm knowledge, or to experiment with a less familiar product, which requires new knowledge. Using data on new drug introductions in the US generic pharmaceutical industry, the analyses showed clear support for heterogeneous product‐market entry patterns across knowledge domains as the firm ages. Across time, the form of learning shifts from exploration to exploitation. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Oil Prices and Urban Housing Demand

We develop a model of a monocentric, oil‐exporting city. The model predicts a “twist” (rotation combined with a level shift) of the house price gradient with an oil price change due to the combined producer price and transportation cost effects. Empirical findings support the predictions, with house price changes positively linked to the price of oil in cities specialized in oil and gas‐related industries, and negatively linked in suburban areas of all cities. These results quantify the large and differential risks to house prices associated with oil price changes both within and across cities. Overall, estimates suggest a 50% change in the price of oil results in a city‐wide house price change of 15% over five years in a city specialized in the production of oil (export employment share of 50%), whereas house prices for units greater than 15 miles from the city‐center change in relative terms by ?1.5% over the same period.     

Antecedents and Contingent Effects of Organizational Adaptive Capability on Firm Product Innovativeness

Organizational adaptive capability is a broad term and was studied from different perspectives, such as market, technology, and management system, in the management literature. However, the simultaneous effects of these different perspectives and their related adaptive capability constructs on a firm's product innovativeness have yet to be addressed. Additionally, an empirical study of the influence of informal structural dimensions, such as loose coupling, multiplexity, and redundancy, on the organizational adaptive capability, as antecedents, is also missing in the technology and innovation management (TIM) literature. By studying 153 firms, we found that (1) market‐, technology‐, and management system‐related adaptive capability constructs simultaneously and positively impact firm product innovativeness; (2) under the loose coupling construct, autonomous behaviors of departments positively impact technology and management system adaptive capability, loose management style influences market and management system adaptive capability, and uneven/slow information travel in organizations negatively affects technology and management system adaptive capability; (3) multiplexity positively influences all organizational adaptive capability constructs; and (4) under the redundancy construct, information distribution redundancy has an “∩” shape relationship with technology adaptive capability. We also demonstrated that the impact of informal structural constructs on adaptive capability is contingent upon environmental turbulence, e.g., rapid or unanticipated changes in market and technology. We found that the influence of loose management style on technology adaptive capability decreases with increased rate of market turbulence, and the effect of resource slack, as a part of the redundancy construct, on technology adaptive capability changes quadratically, an “∩” shaped curve, with an increased rate of market turbulence. We further found that the effect of the autonomous behaviors of departments on market adaptive capability increases with an increased level of technology turbulence. The role of resource slack on the market adaptive capability was also found to change quadratically, an “∩” shaped curve, with an increased rate of technology turbulence. Interestingly, the impact of the information distribution redundancy on market adaptive capability changes nonlinearly, a “U” shaped curve, with an increased rate of technology turbulence. Further, we showed that the influence of organizational technology adaptive capability on product innovativeness increases with increased level of technology turbulence. This study concludes with several theoretical and managerial implications.     

Nutrition,agriculture and the global food system in low and middle income countries

The entire food value chain and diet of low and middle income countries (LMICs) are rapidly shifting. Many of the issues addressed by the nutrition community ignore some of the major underlying shifts in purchases of consumer packaged foods and beverages. At the same time, the drivers of the food system at the farm level might be changing. There is a need for the agriculture and nutrition communities to understand these changes and focus on some of their implications for health. This rapid growth of the retail sector will change the diets of the food insecure as much as that of the food secure across rural and urban LMIC’s. This short commentary contents that current research, programs and policies are ignoring these rapid dynamic shifts.     

Organizational form and environment: an analysis of between‐form and within‐form responses to environmental change

This study extends previous research on organizational adaptation to major environmental shifts by empirically examining the potential constraining effects of organizational form, operationalized using the Miles and Snow typology, on the type of responses enacted as well as the performance effects of the responses. Results indicate that a fit between environmental contingencies and organizational form relates to superior performance. The results also provide support for the idea that organizations systematically move toward the higher‐performing forms for a given environment. Consistent with organizational configuration logic, while these responses lead to performance improvements when a between‐form change is made, they do not necessarily lead to performance improvements when a within‐form change is made. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modeling the dynamics of strategic fit: a normative approach to strategic change

This study develops and tests a dynamic perspective on strategic fit. Drawing from contingency and resource‐based arguments in the strategy and organizational theory literatures, we propose a distinctive analytical approach to identify environmental and organizational contingencies that should predict changes in a firm's strategy and the performance implications of such changes. We test our model using extensive longitudinal data from over 4000 U.S. savings and loan institutions during a period when many S&Ls considered changing strategic direction. The findings support our model of dynamic strategic fit. Specifically, we find that (1) the timing, direction, and magnitude of strategic changes can be logically predicted based on differences in specific environmental forces and organizational resources, and (2) organizations that deviated from our model's prediction of dynamic strategic fit (i.e., changed more or changed less than our model prescribed) experienced negative performance consequences. We conclude by discussing the implications of our approach and findings for future research on strategic fit and strategic change. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Compensating Wage Differentials in the Union and Nonunion Sectors

This paper tests for the existence of structurally different compensating payments in the union and nonunion sectors of the economy. Significant differences may stem from the different mechanisms by which such payments are determined: markets are the primary mechanism in the nonunion sector, while Political processes play a major role in the union sector. The empirical results provide tentative support for the structural differences hypothesis; They also reveal an absence of positive and significant compensating payments in nonunion labor markets.     

A Property Tax Base Model

This model analyzes fiscal year changes and shifts in local government's real property tax base. The three variables quantified by this analysis are net new development, change in assessment-market price ratio and appreciation. The model's results provide useful analytical data to taxpayers and policy makers. These data can be used to help determine policy actions relative to (1) the amount and type of development and its impact on the future fiscal position of the respective jurisdiction; (2) the equity of the various property classes' assessment-sales price ratios; and (3) possibly altering the rate of appreciation among the various classes. The model might also be used on a sub-area basis to help determine prospering and declining areas, and to help forecast the property tax base and revenue.     

New technology and Hong Kong telephone workers

Most studies of technological change in telecommunications have researched incremental shifts within the analogue switching paradigm. This paper takes the case of the shift to digital switching in Hong Kong's public telephone network. It focuses upon how this change was managed and the consequential changes in labour relations.     

Commitment to technological change,sales force intelligence norms,and salesperson key outcomes

Despite increasing interest in sales technology investments, companies continue to struggle with getting their salespeople to use these expensive technologies. In this context, two under-researched issues warrant attention. First, although sales technology represents a continuous source of change, little is known about why salespeople commit to technology-induced changes. Second, knowledge on whether sales force intelligence norms play a role into translating use of sales technology to performance gains is remarkably sparse. To address these gaps, this study develops a conceptual framework that explores the linear and non-linear effects of commitment to technological change (i.e., affective, normative, and continuance) on sales technology infusion, and, in turn, on two key outcomes (i.e., customer-oriented selling and sales performance). Our framework also advances knowledge on how sales force intelligence norms (i.e., analytical sales processes and knowledge sharing with customers) moderate the relationships between sales technology infusion and key outcomes. Analysis is done using multilevel structural equation modeling on a sample of 303 salespeople nested within 22 firms. Findings support the view that the three components of commitment are distinct, with some counter-intuitive results. Specifically, affective commitment does not exert a significant positive influence as expected; yet, normative commitment does. In contrast, while lower levels of continuance commitment reduce infusion, higher levels have positive effects, thus depicting a U-shaped effect. Finally, sales technology infusion influences both key outcomes — and findings support the importance of fostering sales force intelligence norms. Implications of the study are discussed.     

Random Walks and the Cointegration of the ACLI and NCREIF

Do NCREIF returns influence commercial mortgage underwriters when they adjust capitalization rates? Are the ACLI capitalization series and the NCREIF return series cointegrated at the national and the smaller geographic sub‐division levels? This research uses a two‐step procedure to test for cointegration. First, the Phillips–Perron unit‐root procedure must show that each series is a unit‐root random walk. Previous research usually has assumed that these series are random walks, with the implication that the commercial mortgage market is efficient. Second, the Phillips–Ouliaris test of the residuals of a function of the two series determines the possibility of cointegration. At the national level and for the Northeast and Pacific regions the two series are random walks and cointegrated. In other geographic sub‐divisions, neither or only one series is a random walk and therefore the data does not support a relationship. The lack of functional relationships in four of the six smaller geographic regions suggests that underwriters are not obtaining the NCREIF information or are ignoring it. The lack of random walks with the implication about capital‐market efficiency invites further research.     

基于结构计量模型分析渠道结构变动的影响——以中国移动定制机分销模式的变动为例

以中国移动定制机分销模式的变动为例,本文运用结构计量模型对渠道结构变动的经济效应做了实证分析。在估计出需求参数和渠道成本参数的基础上,本文通过反事实模拟方法,评估了中国移动推行后向一体化战略对产业链上各行为主体的经济影响。结果发现,国代商同时向社会渠道和中国移动渠道分销定制机存在显著的规模经济;中国移动收回国代商定制机的分销代理权后,国代商与中国移动自身的边际成本均有所上升,且二者的利润边际都出现下降,这意味着中国移动改变企业边界和渠道结构安排是明显的"双输"决策。