Fixed-to-mobile substitution in the European Union

This paper analyzes substitution between access to fixed-line and mobile telephony in the European Union using cross-section panel data on households’ choices of telecommunications technologies in years 2005–2010. We estimate a structural model of household?s demand for access to: (i) fixed-line only; (ii) mobile only; and (iii) both fixed-line and mobile. We find that growing Internet usage increases the share of ‘fixed + mobile’ households, which suggests that households keep their fixed-line connection to access Internet. However, the spread of 3G and cable broadband access decreases the share of ‘fixed + mobile’ households and increases the share of ‘mobile only’ households. Hence, fixed-to-mobile substitution was slowed down by the spread of Internet but it may continue with the spread of mobile broadband. Furthermore, bundling of telecommunications services increases the share of ‘fixed + mobile’ households and decreases the shares of ‘mobile only’ and ‘fixed only’ households. Therefore, operators which can bundle fixed-line connection with Internet or mobile services may slow down fixed-to-mobile substitution.     

Diffusion and competitive relationship of mobile telephone service in Guatemala: An empirical analysis

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the characteristics of diffusion process of mobile telephone service and the competitive relationships between mobile and fixed-line services in Guatemalan telecommunications market. We investigated the best-suited model to explain the diffusion process of mobile telephone in Guatemala by estimating diffusion curves using empirical data. Moreover, we explored affecting factors which characterize the diffusion pattern of mobile telephony in Guatemala through statistical analysis. Finally, in order to understand the effects of competition in the diffusion process of Guatemalan mobile phone service, we attempted to clarify the competitive relationship between mobile and fixed-line services using the Lotka-Volterra model. As a result, the logistic model was found to be the best model for describing the diffusion pattern. Moreover, investment in telecommunications, the subscribers of fixed-line services, and the number of operators in mobile market were found as significant determinants of mobile diffusion process. Results from the Lotka-Volterra model showed that the relationship between mobile and fixed-line services has changed from pure competition to amensalism.     

Retaining telecommunication services when universal service is defined by functionality: Japanese consumers' willingness-to-pay

This study uses contingent valuation to measure Japanese customers' willingness-to-pay to maintain combinations of five telecommunication services that are considered substitutes if universal service is defined on the basis of functionality. The analysis revealed the following results. First, consumers are more willing to pay to retain voice communication services than data transmission services. Second, customers accept Internet Protocol telephony as a substitute for plain old telephone service (POTS) as a universal service, and they are willing to pay much more than Japan's current Universal Service Fund charge. Third, even when mobile phone service (MOB) is available, consumers will pay to retain fixed-line voice services. Finally, consumers have an equal desire to keep fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) and fixed-line voice services, but it is less than the demand for MOB. Thus, under the present definition of POTS as a universal service, FTTH could be considered as a basic telecommunication service.     

Mobile-only consumers arise from heterogeneous valuation of fixed services

Mobile-only users are usually perceived as a consequence of fixed-mobile substitution. This study uses a unique dataset based on a survey in France, combined with interviewee's telecommunications billing data, to reveal heterogeneous consumer preferences for fixed services. With the same mixed logit model we estimate the willingness to pay (WTP) for fixed communications services and fixed-mobile relationship. Results show a very large heterogeneity of WTP for fixed services among consumers. In addition, we show that fixed and mobile data are complement for all consumers. Mobile-only consumers have a much lower but non-zero WTP, and higher price sensitivity compared to fixed-mobile consumers. Consequently, an increase in the fixed offer price would reduce the demand for fixed service. Heterogeneous preferences for fixed services constitute an alternative explanation for the existence of mobile-only users, despite the complementary nature of fixed and mobile broadband. Counter-factual simulations show that the share of mobile-only could also be driven by the way to subsidize mobile handset. For instance, making the handset subsidy only available to fixed-mobile quadruple play subscribers could reduce the share of mobile-only by half.     

Quality-adjusted international price comparisons of mobile telecommunications services

Many countries' policymakers have conducted international price comparisons of mobile telecommunications services to prevent service operators from overcharging subscribers. However, those comparisons have become more complicated because of the escalation in service usage and telecommunications expenditures spurred by the proliferation of smartphones and broadband LTE wireless internet service networks. The basket-based methodologies that have been widely used for international price comparisons are also limited—first, because the baskets for comparison may not be representative of actual service usage patterns in some countries; second, because they are difficult to apply to highly differentiated service plans due to the significant increase in wireless internet service usage and widely used plans with unlimited voice call service and SMS/MMS; and third, because they cannot consider the quality of service, such as upload and download speed in various service environments, at all. As an alternative, this paper proposes a hedonic pricing model that accounts for service quality and its variation in potentially disruptive environments, as well as fixed charge for a mobile phone additional to the price of service plans. The model was used to derive quality-adjusted price indices of mobile telecommunications services for twelve cities in ten countries with broadband LTE wireless internet service. The empirical results confirmed that the price index of each city varied significantly across the specifications,—both within the United States and internationally—depending on whether the model was constructed to reflect service quality and its variation on roads, in buildings, and in subways. The price index of each city also varied depending on whether the subsidized price of a mobile phone was considered part of the monthly price of a service plan. These results have important implications for policymakers seeking to understand the ultimate level of mobile telecommunication service prices for their country in a global context.     

The impact of regulation on the retail prices in fixed-line telephony across the European Union

This paper estimates reduced-form models for incumbent prices in the fixed telecommunications industry using data for European Union (EU) countries from 1998 to 2002. The regulation of fixed-line telephony has a significant impact on prices for residential consumers. Liberalization of the telecommunications industry decreased retail prices by about 8.2%. The introduction of carrier pre-selection and number portability had a negative impact on price levels. The estimation results also suggest that a 1% decrease in termination charges on the incumbent network led on average to a 0.17% decrease in the cost of usage basket for residential consumers. Furthermore, in the pricing regressions for incumbent local and national calls at peak and off-peak times interconnection charges are significant only in the estimation of national peak prices. A 1% decrease in single transit interconnection charges on the incumbent network led to a 0.31% decrease in incumbent national prices at peak times, as calculated for the average prices in the EU in 2002.     

Consumers’ valuation for food traceability in China: Does trust matter?

Food safety is a very important topic in China. We investigate Chinese consumers’ preferences and willingness to pay (WTP) for food traceability using a choice experiment. Given that consumers’ trust in the food system may affect their preferences and WTP, we also assess the interaction between consumers’ trust in government’s supervision of food safety and food labels and consumers’ preferences for traceable food products. Using data collected from a choice experiment on Fuji apples in a face-to-face survey in six Chinese cities, the results show that (i) consumers are willing to pay for traceable food but their valuations can differ upon the degree of their trust in government’s supervision of food safety and food labels; (ii) consumers are willing to pay for traceability with strong evidence of preference heterogeneity; (iii) government is not the most trusted safety inspection and certificate authority as found in prior studies using animal food products in China.     

Inconvenience cost of mobile communication failure: The case of South Korea

Mobile communication failure can occur when mobile traffic exceeds the manageable level. This depends on frequency bandwidth. Mobile communication failure causes inconveniences in a user's daily life that lead to social and economic damage. To address this issue, mobile telecommunications companies deploy additional bandwidths and develop new technologies, but these are costly strategies. This study applies a spike model based on a contingent valuation method (CVM) to measure the inconvenience cost resulting from mobile communication failure. The mean monthly willingness-to-pay (WTP) to avoid communication failure per user is estimated to be KRW 898.14 (USD 0.80) over a period of five years in our study. The inconvenience cost borne by the population is estimated to be KRW 2.97 trillion (USD 2.61 billion). Users experiencing greater frequency of communication failure are found to be willing to pay more to avoid the inconvenience. When excluding respondents citing zero-WTP, the mean WTP per user was calculated to be KRW 3426.41 (USD 3.01). Data traffic usage and frequency at which communication failure is experienced are variables that exhibit statistically significant effects on WTP to avoid mobile communication failure. Overall, estimation results show that a price discrimination based on data traffic usage or quality can be considered by mobile telecommunications companies and regulators to address the issue of data traffic inducing mobile communication failure.     

Analysis of an integrated plan for expanding broadband access in Colombia

Colombian telecommunications exhibit remarkable growth in the mobile sector and television market evolution and some degree of stagnation in fixed telephony and broadband access. Only recently the Colombian government has started to seriously address the need to deploy a plan for rapid and effective broadband growth, adding to the worldwide wave of government planned investments on fibre-optic broadband access expansion. This paper analyses the current state of the Colombian government’s broadband plan, named Vive Digital, comparing its proposed actions with the plans and achievements of three OECD countries’ experiences on broadband policies. Several aspects, either collectively or individually, from the three international cases are used as guidelines of what an integrated, efficient broadband policy may be. The analysis takes consideration of the contextual differences between the studied cases for the benefit of identifying the strengths and weaknesses of the Colombian plan, and is focused on the incentive structure needed to advance the development of infrastructure, services, applications and user involvement.     

Broadband expectations and the convergence of ranks

Broadband Internet service to widely held to be a significant contributor to economic development and global competitiveness, and comparison of adoption rates across countries are common. This paper presents evidence that the relative broadband Internet adoption ranks across the Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (“OECD”) countries are converging to the wireline telephone adoption ranks in the mid 1990s. This was a time when wireline telephone service had reached maturity, but before consumers began to abandon traditional telephone services for mobile services and Internet telephone technologies. As such, in the absence of better data on household adoption, wireline telephone rank is a useful proxy for a country's ultimate fixed-line broadband penetration rank. Having such an educated guess available regarding broadband rank should reduce the amount of anxiety over rankings, since similar rankings across the two services implies suitable broadband performance. Large departures, alternately, may be a cause for concern or delight. Like prior analyses, the findings suggest that the adoption of communications services is largely an economic and demographic issue.     

Australian Residential Telecommunications Consumption and Substitution Patterns

Better telecommunications pricing decisions are able to be made when more complete information concerning relationships among services is available. This study analyses residential fixed-line and mobile telephony, and Internet access and usage demands in an encompassing framework. The discrete-continuous framework allows for service interaction within and between service portfolios. Model estimation is based on the examination of data collected from a country-wide survey of Australian households. In particular, observed service portfolios (household consumption patterns at prevailing access prices and estimated average service usage prices), income and demographic characteristic data are collected. These data also allow the modelling to potentially identify market segments based on income and other household characteristics.JEL Classifications: D12, L11, L69     

Price elasticity of demand for broadband: Evidence from Latin America and the Caribbean

In this study the authors analyze fixed broadband retail prices in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), and provide estimates about the effect of price changes on broadband adoption. The analysis is based on a survey of plans and tariffs conducted by the authors during Q2 2010. Their results suggest that fixed broadband services in LAC are generally expensive and of poor quality when benchmarked against Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, although there is significant variance between markets in the region. In order to isolate the effect of prices on broadband adoption they use an instrumental-variable approach. Their findings show that broadband demand is relatively elastic to price in LAC but not in the OECD. They estimate that an average price reduction of 10% would result in an increase of almost 22% in the penetration rate in LAC, equivalent to almost 8.5 million additional broadband connections. Several policy implications result from these findings. First, national broadband policies in LAC should pay a closer attention to a deficit of competition in fixed broadband services, as households and firms face high prices for poor quality services, thus deterring adoption. Second, while their findings generally suggest that price reductions could significantly increase penetration, they elasticity estimates reveal that price effects might not be sufficient to achieve the penetration goals set in national broadband plans. This validates the need for complementary policy strategies that affect other determinants of broadband demand. The example of Brazil is used to illustrate this finding.     

Politics,policy and fixed-line telecommunications provision: Insights from Australia

Over the past 40 years, telecommunications policy worldwide has been dominated by the privatisation of former government-owned firms, the pursuit of increasing competition as well as the delegation of day-to-day operations of industry decision-making and oversight from core governments to autonomous regulators sitting at arms-length from political decision-making. One of the most (apparently) dramatic reversals of this trend has occurred in Australia where the federal government has set up a state-owned company (NBN Co) to fully replace and upgrade the fixed-line infrastructure for voice and broadband communications for the entire country. Some argued that the NBN heralded a reversal of a “failed, neoliberal” deregulation and pro-competition policy agenda in Australia, and a return to “social democratic” values. The NBN has attracted interest as a possible model for other governments looking to fund broadband infrastructure.The NBN Co's network is nearing completion. It has proved disappointing in many ways, with costs escalations, missed deadlines and a downscaling of the original full-fibre footprint to a mixed technology model (MTM). It has also proved politically divisive, with some claiming the MTM changes represent the reassertion of a neoliberal political agenda. In this paper, we trace the evolution of the fixed-line telecommunications industry in Australia from the 1980s to the present along the dimensions of privatisation, deregulation and competition in voice, broadband and policy settings. We find that contrary to popular political rhetoric, the Australian industry reforms have been characterised by only a partial and inconsistent progression towards the international policy objectives. In particular, ongoing government ownership of the incumbent created perverse incentives for both regulatory and industry actors and ensured political involvement in import network investment and operations decisions which in other jurisdictions are delegated to private-sector owners and regulators at arms-length from political influence. We contend that the NBN was not a social democratic response to failed neoliberal policies, nor was the MTM a neoliberal reassertion. Rather, the politicisation of the NBN is a function of the inability to decentralise ownership and control of the industry away from the government. These issues will continue to dominate the Australian debate, as the statutory context requires the privatisation of the NBN within five years of its projected 2021 completion. Extreme caution is warranted for jurisdictions looking to the NBN model for guidance.     

What is the magnitude of fixed–mobile call substitution? Empirical evidence from 16 European countries

This paper investigates the degree of fixed–mobile call substitution (FMCS) within different European countries. We use quarterly data from 2004 to mid-2010 on 16 mainly Western European countries. By applying dynamic panel data techniques, we are able to estimate short- and long-run elasticities of the telecommunication usage prices on the fixed-line call demand. The own-price and cross-price elasticities found give strong empirical evidence for substitutional effects towards mobile services. In particular, the estimated cross-price elasticities of the mobile price on the fixed-line call demand are relatively large compared to other studies.     

Willingness to pay for over-the-top services in China and Korea

The increasing penetration of broadband and multiscreen availability has encouraged the development of premium video consumption through over-the-top (OTT) services. Netflix, the leading global OTT provider, is aggressively expanding its international operations and has ambitiously entered the Asian market. To prepare for the shift that the streaming service giant will bring, a proper understanding of consumer acceptance and intent to pay for OTT services is crucial. Therefore, this empirical study uses conjoint analysis to investigate the key attributes and to examine consumers’ marginal willingness to pay (WTP) for OTT services. We identified recommendation systems, resolution, and viewing options as important product attributes of OTT services that influence the WTP of Chinese and Korean consumers. The most important attribute for Chinese consumers of OTT services was resolution, followed by the recommendation system and viewing options. For Korean consumers, the recommendation system was ranked as the most valuable attribute, followed by viewing options and resolution. The overall WTP of Chinese consumers was 22.6 yuan (3.4 USD) per month, while Korean consumers’ intent to pay amounted to a total of 3530 won (3.1 USD) for OTT services.     

Analysis of consumer preferences for mobile telecom plans using a discrete choice experiment

In this paper, we present a study of consumer preferences for mobile telecommunications plans and operator characteristics. The objective of the study was to identify consumer preferences for the following characteristics of mobile plans: the importance of using the same provider as friends and family (calling club network effects), the market share of the provider (pure network effects), the length of the commitment period, monthly fee/recharge obligations and per minute call charges for calls made within and outside the provider network. A discrete choice experiment was used as a preference elicitation method and implemented in face-to-face interviews. We present results regarding willingness to pay for the described features as well as their relationship to socio-demographic variables. Consumers are willing to pay 1.3 Euro per month more to reduce the commitment period from 1 year to 6 months and willing to pay 2.5 euros per month more to be part of a larger network. Consumers are also twice as much more sensitive to within-network price variations than extra-network price variations. These results remain unchanged in the sub-sample of those that have internet access suggesting that a web-based surveys are capable of producing unbiased results. The implications of these results for regulatory policy are discussed.     

On the statistical identification of technology disruption

This study suggests a statistical procedure to identify technology disruption. In particular, a threshold autoregressive model enables the identification of threshold penetration for disruptive technology that affects the dynamic adjustment of an established technology. Both the magnitude and direction of the impact is identified by country World Bank income category in the context of the impact of (disruptive) mobile telephone diffusion on (primary) fixed-line markets. Importantly, as the procedure only requires a short time-series for the introduced technology and can readily be conducted on an ongoing basis.     

Emerging issues in white space regulation

The secondary use of vacant television channels (TV white spaces) and the reallocation of the digital dividend to provide wireless broadband services are in the final stages of implementation in some countries. Originally seen as a once in a generation opportunity to better allocate UHF spectrum, further digital dividends are now underway as regulators and industry strive to meet exponential increases in demand for mobile data services. Concurrent developments suggest that TV white spaces may be rapidly exploited by global networks with billions of supported devices. The potential for sub-optimal outcomes is identified if the prospect of further digital dividends is not taken into account as technical and regulatory arrangements are put in place to allow productive use of TV white spaces. The importance of considering the potential interaction between further digital dividends and the use of TV white spaces is discussed and technical and regulatory approaches to support optimal outcomes are identified.     

Cost allocation of WCDMA and wholesale pricing for mVoIP and data services

This study estimates cost-based prices for wholesale voice and data services provided to 3G (WCDMA) MVNOs according to their distinct types. For estimation, 3G MVNOs are classified into different types, and the overall cost of WCDMA facilities are separated into voice and data components based on their subscriber rates, actual traffic rates, as well as efficiency consideration of traffic rates. The study then calculates cost-based wholesale prices of voice and data services for each of the 3G MVNO types. The result of this study shows that a cost-plus pricing scheme can help achieve the policy goals of the regulator, namely, lowering telecommunications tariffs and facilitating the introduction of new convergent-type services, far more effectively than the current retail-minus pricing scheme. The findings of this study may assist firms in developing business models based on 3G networks and telecom regulators in designing policies related to interconnection, mVoIP, prepaid calls, wholesale services, and network neutrality.     

Investigation of factors affecting the diffusion of mobile telephone services: An empirical analysis for Vietnam

This paper analyzes the diffusion of mobile telecommunications services in Vietnam and examines how telecommunications regulation and potential substitute/complement services affect the growth of the number of mobile telephone subscribers. Using a logistic diffusion model, it is found that fixed telephone services are a complement while data services have a negative relation to mobile telephone services in Vietnam. As for regulation, the policy of introducing competition has been found to be the most effective in influencing the adoption of mobile services. Another important result is that the estimated potential market is roughly 76% of the total population. The findings suggest that suitable regulation that guarantees competition in the mobile telecommunications market in a developing country such as Vietnam is one of the most important factors for a positive diffusion process.