The Restructuring and Privatisation of Britain's CEGB—Was It Worth It?

We report a social cost-benefit analysis of the privatisation and restructuring of the Central Electricity Generating Board which generated and transmitted all public electricity in England and Wales until 1990. The main benefits came from generator efficiency gains, switching from nuclear power, and lower emissions. The main costs came from higher prices for imported French electricity, the cost of restructuring and premature investment in the gas-fired generating plant. Our central estimate is a permanent cost reduction of 5% per year, equivalent to an extra 40% return on assets. Consumers and government lose, and producers gain more than the cost reduction.     

The impacts of hybrid maize seed on the welfare of farming households in Kenya

This paper explores the impacts of hybrid maize adoption on the welfare of farming households in Kenya. We use a four-year panel dataset to estimate the effects of hybrid seed use on four indicators of household welfare, namely, income, assets, inequality and poverty. Results show that use of hybrid seed not only contributes to higher annual income, but also to raising the value of assets, possibly reflecting longer-term welfare effects. Further, we find that use of hybrid seed reduces the depth of poverty, and that the amount planted reduces inequality. As expected, impacts differ between major and minor maize-growing areas of the country. Maize farmers who do not use hybrid seed are clearly disadvantaged. This calls for continued public and private investments in the infrastructure and policy process that supports a competitive, liberalized seed industry and improved access of smallholder farmers to well-adapted, affordable hybrids.     

The Effect of Fuel Price Changes on Fleet Demand for New Vehicle Fuel Economy

New vehicle purchases by private companies and government agencies, or ‘fleet’ buyers, represent a significant percentage of overall new vehicle sales in the United States. Yet little is known about fleet demand for new vehicle fuel economy including how it responds to fuel price changes. Using unique disaggregated data on fleet and household registrations of new vehicles from 2009 to 2016, we estimate how fleet demand for new vehicle fuel economy responds to fuel price changes. We find that fleet purchases of low fuel economy vehicles fall relative to high fuel economy vehicles when gasoline prices increase, a finding that is consistent with fleet buyers’ taking into account capitalization of fuel costs in the second‐hand market. Our estimates imply that raising gasoline prices by one dollar would increase fuel economy of new vehicles acquired by fleet buyers by 0.33 miles per gallon. We estimate a similar response for household buyers during the same period. This result justifies basing fuel economy responses to fuel cost changes on household data alone, an assumption widely used in the vehicle demand literature and the fuel economy valuation literature. We also find, however, that the response to fuel price changes varies across the types of fleet buyers: rental companies respond strongly to fuel price changes, whereas commercial and government buyers are insensitive. Our estimates imply that an increase in the federal gasoline tax would modestly increase fuel economy of vehicles bought by households and rental companies but would have little to no impact on fuel economy of vehicles bought by non‐rental companies and governments.     

Oligopoly under incomplete information: On the welfare effects of price discrimination

We study competition by firms that simultaneously post (potentially nonlinear) tariffs to consumers who are privately informed about their tastes. Market power stems from informational frictions, in that consumers are heterogeneously informed about firms’ offers. In the absence of regulation, all firms offer quantity discounts. As a result, relative to Bertrand pricing, imperfect competition benefits disproportionately more consumers whose willingness to pay is high, rather than low. Regulation imposing linear pricing hurts the former but benefits the latter consumers. While consumer surplus increases, firms’ profits decrease, enough to drive down utilitarian welfare. By contrast, improvements in market transparency increase utilitarian welfare, and achieve similar gains on consumer surplus as imposing linear pricing, although with limited distributive impact. On normative grounds, our analysis suggests that banning price discrimination is warranted only if its distributive benefits have a weight on the societal objective.     

The rural telecommuter surplus in Southwestern Ontario,Canada

This paper asks the question: what kind of economic benefits do rural telecommuters experience in Southwestern Ontario? This is a relevant question in Canada where, according to Statistics Canada (2017) one in 14 people work from home. This paper presents an overview of the current literature on telecommuting. We estimate the telecommuter surplus in Southwestern Ontario where the region is currently deploying one of Canada's largest publicly-funded ultra-high-speed broadband initiatives known as SouthWest Integrated Fibre Technology Inc. (SWIFT). The analysis is based on SWIFT residential and farm surveys (n?=?3948) conducted in 2017. We find that an average telecommuter's surplus in terms of costs saved, including opportunity cost ranges from $8820 to $23964 per annum per telecommuter, depending on the number of days telecommuted per week for home and primary residence dwelling type. The social net benefits of telecommuting differ from its private net benefit (the focus of our paper) since the former includes both positive and negative externalities associated with telecommuting such as reduced traffic congestion, reduced probability of road accidents, as well as some workers shirking their duties (a negative impact). We leave this for future work.     

The Welfare Effect of Advertising Restrictions in the U.S. Cigarette Industry

The welfare effect of advertisingrestrictions in the U.S. cigarette industry dependsupon the impact of advertising on consumer and producer surplus, the transfer to consumers for being exposed to utility-reducing advertising, and smoking externalities. We estimate a demand equation and a supply relation simultaneously and use the parameter estimates to generate predictions of the impact of advertising restrictions on social welfare. Our results show that advertising restrictions benefit producers by limiting competition and generating higher industry profits, and such restrictions lower social welfare if the external cost of cigarette smoking is sufficiently low.     

Welfare Analysis of Regulating Mobile Termination Rates in the U.K.

We develop a calibrated simulation model of the U.K. mobile telephony market and use it to analyze the effects of reducing mobile termination rates (MTR's) as recommended by the European Commission. We find that reducing MTR's is likely to increase both consumer surplus and networks' profits. Depending on the strength of call externalities (i.e., benefits to the recipient of a call), social welfare may increase by as much as £1 billion to £4.6 billion per year. We also use the model to estimate the welfare effects of the 2010 merger between Orange and T‐Mobile and find that the merger led to a substantial reduction in consumer surplus.     

The Spatial Distribution of Housing-Related Ordinary Income Tax Benefits

We estimate how tax subsidies to owner-occupied housing are distributed spatially across the United States and find striking skewness. At the state level, the mean tax benefit per owned unit in 1990 ranged from $917 in South Dakota to $10,718 in Hawaii. The dispersion is slightly greater when benefit flows are measured at the metropolitan-area level. Even assuming the subsidies are funded in an income progressivity-neutral manner, a relatively few metro areas, primarily in California and the New York–Boston corridor, are shown to gain considerably while the vast majority of areas have relatively small gains or losses.     

Digital monopolies: Privacy protection or price regulation?

Increasing returns to scale in data gathering and processing give rise to a new form of monopoly, referred to here as digital monopoly. Digital monopolies create new challenges for regulators and antitrust authorities. We address two in this paper: market power arising from improved match values and from reduced privacy. The digital monopoly’s profit and social surplus always increase as privacy decreases. However, consumer surplus is non-monotone in privacy. Without privacy, the match value is perfect but completely extracted by the digital monopoly. In contrast, as privacy goes to infinity, match values and social surplus go to zero. With regulated prices, consumer surplus is maximized without privacy protection. As with natural monopolies, price regulation thus remains an appropriate tool in the digital age to capture the social benefits from increasing returns to scale without harming consumers.     

Assessing horizontal mergers under uncertain efficiency gains

The analysis of horizontal mergers hinges on a tradeoff between unilateral effects and efficiency gains. We examine the role of uncertainty in this tradeoff. In theory, the attitude towards uncertainty depends on the curvature of the social objective function. On the one hand, adjustment effects, both on the consumers' and firms' sides, tend to make consumers' surplus and firms' profits convex. On the other hand, pass-through effects may act in the opposite direction. We show that convexity prevails in a number of situations, including the most general linear demand model. Implications for empirical merger analysis are exposed.     

Scrapping subsidies during the financial crisis — Evidence from Europe

We study the effects of car scrapping subsidies in Europe during the financial crisis. We make use of a rich data set of all car models sold in eight European countries, observed at a monthly level during 1998–2011. We employ a difference-in-differences approach, exploiting the fact that different countries adopted their programs at different points in time. We find that the scrapping schemes played a strong role in stabilizing total car sales in 2009: they prevented a total car sales reduction of 30.5% in countries with schemes targeted to low emission vehicles, and a 29.0% sales reduction in countries with non-targeted schemes. We find evidence of crowding out due to substitution from non-eligible to eligible cars in France and Spain. Because eligible cars tend to be more fuel efficient, targeted scrapping schemes had significant environmental benefits in the form of improved fuel consumption: without the schemes, the average fuel consumption of new purchased cars would have been 3.6% higher. Those benefits did not materialize under non-targeted schemes, in which the fuel consumption would have been only 0.7% higher absent the scheme. Finally, we find some evidence that domestically produced cars benefited at the expense of foreign competitors especially in countries where the schemes were not targeted.     

Assessing the impact of food policy research: rice trade policies in Viet Nam

The economic impact of marketing and trade policy research in Viet Nam conducted by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) is assessed using a novel benefit–cost framework. It measures the economic value of the time saved in hastening the policy responses of the Government of Vietnam. Extensive interviews with partners and stakeholders in the research clearly indicated that the time saving was a legitimate measure of the influence of IFPRI on decision-making. Linking a spatial equilibrium model with income distribution analysis based on national household surveys, allowed IFPRI to satisfy policymakers that relaxing rice export quotas and internal trade restrictions on rice would not adversely impact on regional disparities and food security, and would have beneficial effects on farm prices and poverty. These were major concerns of policymakers prior to the IFPRI research project. The research on these and other policy options gave a degree of confidence to policymakers that relaxing the controls would be in Viet Nam’s national interest. They made these decisions earlier than would have been the case without the IFPRI research. The policy assessment framework is used to measure the economic impact of the policy changes themselves, and in particular, the contribution of IFPRI’s work with Viet Nam on the policies from 1995 to 1997. The relaxation of rice export quotas and internal restrictions on rice trade made by the Government of Viet Nam in 1995–97 are estimated to have had a present (1995) value to Viet Nam using a 5% discount rate of $222 million by 2000, rising to $966 million by 2020. For an incremental research investment of less than US$1 million, a conservative estimate of the benefit to Viet Nam of the IFPRI contribution to the policy changes effected in Viet Nam from the reduction in the policy implementation lag indicates a present value in 1995 terms of US$45 million. This represents a benefit–cost ratio of 56. A more optimistic assessment is that the present value is US$91 million with a benefit–cost ratio of 114. In addition to the welfare gains to Viet Nam, there were sizeable gains to the rest of the world from IFPRI’s contribution. Inclusion of these benefits increases present value and benefit–cost estimates by 34 to 84%. Around 38% of the contribution of IFPRI is estimated to have accrued to the rest of the world, as Viet Nam is now a major player in world rice trade.     

Real-Time Pricing and Imperfect Competition in Electricity Markets*

We analyze the effects of the adoption of real-time pricing (RTP) of electricity when generating firms have market power. We find that an increase in consumers on RTP contracts decreases peak prices and increases off-peak prices, increases consumer surplus (both for switching and non-switching consumers) and welfare, while decreasing industry profits, with these effects being magnified by the extent of market power. We illustrate these results by calibrating our model to the New Zealand electricity market, and find that taking into account the market power of generating firms increases the efficiency gains from RTP adoption by 41%.     

The Role of Hybrid Organizations in Scaling Social Innovations in Bottom‐of‐the‐Pyramid Markets: Insights from Microfinance in India

While social innovations that solve financial exclusion have gained increasing attention as a means of helping the poor in developing markets, little research has empirically investigated the types of organizations that drive these innovations to achieve scale. Hybrids, a type of organization that exist in between traditional organizational forms, are said to have rapidly gained prevalence, especially in bottom‐of‐the‐pyramid markets. Some scholars claim that hybrids are largely responsible for the spread of established social innovations, yet hybrids do not constitute a homogenous group; instead each hybrid form exists on a spectrum between pure for‐profit and not‐for‐profit organizational forms. It is important that empirical research investigates the role that various hybrid forms play in scaling established social innovations, especially under various bottom‐of‐the‐pyramid market conditions. To this end, using two market‐level outcome measures of scale achieved (prevalence and usage), the authors pursue two research objectives: to study (1) the extent to which, alternative hybrid forms (not‐for‐profit, quasi‐profit, and for‐profit hybrids) drive social innovation; and (2) the relative propensity of these hybrid forms to drive social innovation under varying bottom‐of‐the‐pyramid market conditions, specifically varying levels of development and social diversity. By theorizing how different organizational forms act given their degree of hybridity, the authors develop and test six hypotheses using data sets on microfinance organizations in India. Accordingly, they find that (1) compared with not‐for‐profit and for‐profit hybrids, quasi‐profit hybrids have a propensity to become more prevalent and achieve greater usage in bottom‐of‐the‐pyramid markets overall. Yet, within the spectrum of hybrid forms, (2) not‐for‐profit hybrids are more likely to become more prevalent and achieve greater usage in markets with lower development levels, whereas (3) for‐profit hybrids are more likely to become more prevalent and achieve greater usage in markets with lower social diversity when compared with other hybrid forms.     

回收商竞争环境下逆向供应链协调的激励机制设计

由于回收努力程度难以用契约量化,本文利用委托代理理论研究了回收商竞争努力程度情况下逆向供应链的激励机制设计问题。分别讨论了信息对称与信息不对称情形的逆向供应链激励机制设计方法,并比较了两种情形下激励机制的不同。结果表明,信息不对称情形下回收商不但获得固定收入,而且在获得收益提成的同时承担一定风险;两种情形下回收商的期望效用均为其保留收入水平,而信息不对称情形下制造商的效用降低;制造商设计激励机制时要考虑代理成本的影响因素并做代理成本与监督成本的权衡;回收商竞争程度的增加导致回收商努力程度提高,而制造商期望效用增加,代理成本减少;制造商希望回收商回收难度大;适当的竞争对回收商有利等。     

新型城镇化PPP项目最优资本结构及其影响因素研究——基于合作共赢的一般均衡视角

本文以新型城镇化建设中的准公益性PPP项目为研究对象，建立政府、企业、银行三方合作的理论模型，采用一般均衡分析与数值仿真模拟方法对项目最优资本结构及其影响因素进行分析，结果表明：PPP项目存在理论上的最优股权结构与资产负债率，公众收入水平、资本产出效率、折旧率、债务利率、企业所得税率以及政府偏好等因素影响项目经营收益与成本、资本运作效率、利润分配方式，并重置最优资本结构。因此，PPP项目融资方案设计应该参考多方合作共赢条件下的最优资本结构，同时，基于项目风险控制以及经济社会效益平衡的目标，通过调节各类影响因素完善项目最优资本结构。     

Global value chains,large-scale farming,and poverty: Long-term effects in Senegal

This paper presents panel data evidence on the impact of expansion of global value chains and large-scale export-oriented farms in developing countries over almost a decade. We estimate the income effects of wage employment on large-scale farms in the horticultural export sector in Senegal, using data from two survey rounds covering a seven-years period of rapid expansion of the sector. We estimate average income effects as well as heterogeneous income effects, using fixed effects and quantile fixed effects regressions. We find that poverty and inequality reduced much faster in the research area than elsewhere in Senegal. Employment in the horticultural export sector is associated with higher household income and the income effect is strongest for the poorest households. Expansion of the horticultural export sector in Senegal has been particularly pro-poor through creating employment that is accessible and creates substantial income gains for the poorest half of the rural population. These pro-poor employment effects contrast with insights in the literature on increased inequality from rural wage employment.     

When cost improvements harm consumers

This paper demonstrates that improving cost efficiency in a vertical structure might sometimes be detrimental to consumers. This is in stark contrast with the standard microeconomics result which suggests that the surplus generated by any efficiency gain in production is shared between firms and final consumers, depending on the degree of market power. These new results may apply in contexts such as the diffusion of knowledge and techniques and governmental intervention through income support programs.      

Minimum Quality Standards and Collusion

We model the introduction of a minimum quality standard in a vertically differentiated duopoly. We extend the literature by determining the standard endogenously, showing that the maximisation of social welfare entails an increase in the surplus accruing to consumers served by the low quality firm and a decrease in the surplus of the remaining consumers. Then, we consider the effects of the standard on the stability of price collusion, proving that the standard makes it more difficult for firms to collude if consumers are sufficiently rich.