Urban flight: A short-term phenomenon or long-term trend?

We investigate whether the urban flight from more to less dense locations identified by previous housing studies for the early COVID period is a temporary, pandemic-induced phenomenon, or long-term trend. We focus on the period of 2017–2022, 14,961 single-family home transactions from Southwestern Ontario, and three housing market metrics. Our results for sales price in the early pandemic periods are in line with previous studies. However, our results for sales price in the last pandemic phase (2022), marketing time, and visit activity suggest that the urban flight was a temporary phenomenon characteristic of the early COVID phases.     

Auction versus Negotiated Sale: Evidence from Real Estate Sales

We offer a theoretical and empirical comparison of auctions and negotiated sales. We first build a simple model to show that auctions generate a higher relative price than negotiated sales when demand for the asset is strong, when the asset is more homogeneous and when the asset attracts buyers with higher valuations. Using data from property sales in Singapore, we find support for our theoretical predictions. In addition, we find that auctions do not necessarily generate a higher price premium for foreclosed properties than for nonforeclosed properties.     

Idiosyncratic Risk of House Prices: Evidence from 26 Million Home Sales

This paper uses about 26 million home sales to measure house price idiosyncratic risk for 7,580 U.S. zip codes during three periods: (1) when the U.S. housing market was stable (1996–2000), (2) booming (2001–2007) and (3) busting (2007–2012), and investigates the determinants of house price risk. We find very strong relationships between risk and some basic housing market characteristics. There is a U‐shaped relationship between risk and zip‐code level median household income; risk is higher in zip codes with more appreciation volatility; and risk is not compensated with higher appreciation.     

A Varying Parameters Approach to Constructing House Price Indexes

Conventional housing price index models assume interperiodparameter stability and typically employ either repeat sales or hedonic methodologies. This paper introduces a method of index construction that combines multiple sales observations with single sale transactions while permitting characteristics prices from hedonic regressions to vary over time. A test for interperiod parameter stability is provided. Each period's data are arranged by location and repeat sales are matched by rows. This construction allows greater use of sample information and acknowledges the unique contribution of repeat sales to the estimation process. It also produces intertemporal error correlations that can be beneficially exploited by the seemingly unrelated regressions (SUH) technique. The paper also demonstrates a significance test for error correlation and discusses the treatment of unequal numbers of observations among index periods.     

Unimodality of price-setting newsvendor's objective function with multiplicative demand and its applications

We present a general solution framework for the price-setting newsvendor problem with a multiplicative stochastic demand. Under mild assumptions, such as increasing price elasticity on the mean demand function and increasing generalized failure rate on the distribution of the random factor, we first prove that both the profit function with respect to price and its derived function with respect to order quantity are quasi-concave. Three applications are then studied under our solution framework: (1) We consider a wholesale price only contract by which a manufacturer sets a wholesale price and a newsvendor determines an order quantity and the retail price, and show that the manufacturer's profit function is unimodal with respect to retailing price or stocking factor under certain conditions. (2) We consider a newsvendor problem in which the demand depends on both the retail price and the level of sales effort, and the cost exerting the sales effort is proportional to the order quantity; we prove that there exists a unique pair of price and sales-effort levels that maximize the total profit. This result is established under a set of mild assumptions on the demand and cost functions. (3) We identify a property in the single-period profit function that satisfies Condition 1 of Huh and Janakiraman (2008), which in turn guarantees the optimality of (s, S) policy for an infinite stationary dynamic inventory-price control system with lost sales and fixed order costs. Finally, the unimodality of the newsvendor problem with a general stochastic and price-sensitive demand is studied.     

List Prices,Sale Prices and Marketing Time: An Application to U.S. Housing Markets

Many goods are marketed after first stating a list price, with the expectation that the eventual sales price will differ. In this article, we first present a simple model of search behavior that includes the seller setting a list price. Holding constant the mean of the buyers’ distribution of potential offers for a good, we assume that the greater the list price, the slower the arrival rate of offers but the greater is the maximal offer. This trade‐off determines the optimal list price, which is set simultaneously with the seller's reservation price. Comparative statics are derived through a set of numerical sensitivity tests, where we show that the greater the variance of the distribution of buyers’ potential offers, the greater is the ratio of the list price to expected sales price. Thus, sellers of atypical goods will tend to set a relatively high list price compared with standard goods. We test this hypothesis using data from the Columbus, Ohio, housing market and find substantial support. We also find empirical support for another hypothesis of the model: atypical dwellings take longer to sell.     

Dwelling Age Heteroskedasticity in Repeat Sales House Price Equations

Several authors have attributed the heteroskedasticity observed in repeat sales house price equations to the length of time between sales. Recently, Goodman and Thibodeau (1995) developed a theoretical model that relates heteroskedasticity in hedonic house price equations to dwelling age. Using data for nearly 2,000 repeat sales in Dallas, Texas, this research examines whether repeat sales heteroskedasticity is related to dwelling age, to the length of time between sales, or to both. An iterative generalized least squares procedure that explicitly models the residual variance is used to obtain robust parameter estimates and to increase the efficiency of the usual repeat sales price indices.     

Collusion Under Imperfect Monitoring with Asymmetric Firms

We explore the effects of asymmetries in capacity constraints on collusion where market demand is uncertain and where firms’ sales and prices are private information. We show that all firms can infer when at least one firm's sales are below some firm‐specific ‘trigger level.’ When firms use this public information to monitor the collusive agreement, price wars may occur on the equilibrium path. Symmetry facilitates collusion but, if price wars are sufficiently long, then the optimal collusive prices of symmetric capacity distributions are lower on average than the competitive prices of asymmetric capacity distributions. We draw conclusions for merger policy.     

Search and Liquidity in Single-Family Housing

A two-stage least squares model of housing prices is estimated with data collected from 3358 single-family home transactions. The results provide evidence for an optimal marketing period and indicate that a liquidity premium is priced in single-family home sales. Consistent with the hypothesis derived from economic search models, the model shows higher selling prices for houses having longer expected marketing periods. The model also shows a price premium for houses that sell faster than expectations. This effect supports the concept that liquidity is a value-enhancing characteristic.     

发挥电价杠杆作用 促进合理用电

以 A 省为例,列举了我国现行销售电价在引导客户合理可靠用电方面的不合理之处,系统分析了现行销售电价时客户侧合理可靠用电所形成的不利导向,提出了以进一步引导促进客户合理可靠用电为目标的改革销售电价体系的具体建议。     

Price staggering in cartels

In this paper we investigate the optimal organization of staggered price increases in cartels. Staggered price increases impose a cost during cartel formation as the price leader initially loses sales. We show that for intermediate discount factors, staggered price increases can only be sustained when the increase is neither too small nor too large. When a cartel executes two consecutive price increases, the choice between using the same leader or alternating leadership depends on the initial price level in the industry. We also discuss the choice between simultaneous and staggered price increases with an exogenous antitrust detection function, the allocation of price leadership with cost asymmetry, and the effect of product differentiation on price staggering.     

Creating Growth in New Markets: A Simultaneous Model of Firm Entry and Price*

Sales in a new market generally follow a hockey‐stick pattern: After commercialization, sales are very low for some time before there is a dramatic takeoff in growth. Reported sales takeoffs across products vary widely from a few years to several decades. Prior research identifies new firm entry or price declines as key factors that relate to the timing of a sales takeoff in new markets. However, this literature considers these variables to be exogenous and only finds unilateral effects. In the present article, new firm entry and price declines are modeled as being endogenous. Thus, the simultaneous relationship between price declines and firm entry in the introductory period of new markets when industry sales are negligible is studied. Using a sample of new markets formed in the United States during the last 135 years, strong support for a simultaneous model of price and firm entry is found: Price decreases relate to the competitive pressures associated with firm entry, and, in turn, firm entry is lower in new markets with rapidly falling prices. Furthermore, a key driver of firm entry during the early years of a new market involves the level of patent activity, and a key driver of price decreases is the presence of large firms. In contrast to the recommendations from other research, these results indicate that rapid price declines may further delay sales takeoff in industries by dampening new firm entry. Instead, rapid sales takeoffs in new markets come from encouraging greater innovative activity and the entry of large firms.     

The Bias of the RSR Estimator and the Accuracy of Some Alternatives

This paper analyzes the implications of cross-sectional heteroskedasticity in the repeat sales regression (RSR). RSR estimators are essentially geometric averages of individual asset returns because of the logarithmic transformation of price relatives. We show that the cross-sectional variance of asset returns affects the magnitude of the bias in the average return estimate for each period, while reducing the bias for the surrounding periods. It is not easy to use an approximation method to correct the bias problem. We suggest an unbiased maximum likelihood alternative to the RSR that directly estimates index returns, which we term MLRSR. The unbiased MLRSR estimators are analogous to the RSR estimators but are arithmetic averages of individual asset returns. Simulations show that these estimators are robust to time-varying cross-sectional variance and that the MLRSR may be more accurate than RSR and some alternative methods.     

Repeat Sales as a Matching Estimator

The most common approaches for constructing house price indices—hedonic price functions and the repeat sales estimator—focus on changes over time in mean prices. Though the hedonic approach is less wasteful of data than the repeat sales estimator, it relies on an accurate specification of the underlying econometric model. I suggest using a matching estimator as an alternative to the hedonic and repeat sales approaches. Like the repeat sales approach, a matching estimator uses pairs of sales from different dates to estimate the mean difference in sales prices over time. The matching approach preserves much larger sample sizes than the repeat sales estimator while requiring less preimposed structure than the hedonic approach. The matching approach makes it easy to characterize changes in the full distribution of house prices.     

Price Strategies for Idiosyncratic Goods—The Case of Housing

We determine the mechanism that a rational, profit-maximizing seller would use to revise his reservation price for a heterogeneous or infrequently exchanged good. For instance, while one dimension of a home's quality may be easily determined in competitive markets (e.g., the valuation of floor size, location, etc.), other dimensions of quality may be idiosyncratic (unit specific) and unobservable by the seller (e.g., aesthetics of the home). Here, a seller of a new or infrequently exchanged housing unit may use sales success information to revise his expectation of the unit's market-determined value and hence revise his reservation price. The rational seller will, upon arrival of the first buyer inspecting the unit, determine a sequence of reservation prices for this and expected subsequent buyers. This price sequence falls for subsequent buyers and starts from a lower initial price if the first buyer arrives later than expected. Through this mechanism, we offer an explanation for price dispersion and vacancy durations in housing markets. While we explicitly model the real estate market here, this price revision mechanism is also applicable to rental markets, labor markets, used car markets, and other markets characterized by heterogeneity and infrequent sales.     

Speculative storage in imperfectly competitive markets

Markets for many commodities are characterized by imperfectly competitive production as well as substantial storage by speculators who are attracted by significant price volatility. We examine how speculative storage affects the behavior of an oligopoly producing a commodity for which demand is subject to random shocks. Speculators compete with consumers when purchasing the commodity and then subsequently compete with producers when selling their stocks, resulting in two opposing incentives: on the one hand, producers would like to increase production to capture future sales in advance by selling to speculators; while on the other hand, they would like to withhold production to deter speculation, thereby eliminating the additional supply from speculators in future periods. We find that the incentive to sell to speculators can be quite strong, potentially resulting in prices sufficiently high to drive consumers from the market. Furthermore, these incentives are non-monotonic in the number of producers: speculative storage occurs more frequently in a relatively concentrated oligopoly than in the extremes of monopoly or perfect competition.     

Manipulation Through Biased Product Reviews*

We study a signal-jamming model of product review manipulation in which rational consumers consult product reviews and price to better estimate a product's quality, and a firm, whose quality is either high or low, chooses its price and how much bias to insert into product reviews. We show that both firm types always exert positive effort to manipulate product reviews, and, depending on the equilibrium price level, one or both of them can increase its sales. When the high-type firm exerts more effort than the low-type, review manipulation benefits consumers by raising [lowering] their demand for the high-quality [low-quality] product.     

Chart Turnover and Sales in the Recorded Music Industry: 1990–2005

Chart turnover and sales in the recorded music industry are examined before and during the growth of the Internet as a music source. Chart turnover is measured as the monthly turnover in Billboard’s Top 200 albums chart. Monthly data on expenditures and price indices for music and related goods, as well as demographic and income data, are used in a multivariate structural time series analysis that allows the capture of an unobserved component. We find that turnover positively affects sales, but also that sales are affected positively by an unobserved component that declines in magnitude after 2000.     

Promotional Competition Between Supermarket Chains

This article measures promotional competition between two major supermarket chains in the United States. The approach does not rely upon quantity sales data and can be applied to any industry that features advertised sales. The results indicate that retailers do compete using promotions. A supermarket promotion in one week significantly increases the probability of a promotion for the same product at rival stores in the following week. Additionally, competitors seek to match or exceed the price cuts of their rivals when responding to promotions. Oligopolistic competition plays a significant role in determining the timing of sales and retail price variation.     

On Stability in Competition: Tying and Horizontal Product Differentiation

We combine Hotelling’s model of product differentiation with tie-in sales. A monopolist in one market competes with another firm in a second market. In equilibrium firms choose zero product differentiation. Due to the tying structure no firm can gain the whole market by a small price reduction. A differentiation effect due to tie-in sales leads to this equilibrium stability.