Current state of the electrification of Russia

The current progress of electrification in Russia is clearly insufficient compared with G8 countries. At the same time, economy sectors have a high potential for energy saving. The electricity consumption of households depends on their cash income and the growth rate of electricity tariffs.     

The ‘Special’ World: Stalin's Power Apparatus and the Soviet System's Secret Structures Of Communication

ABSTRACT

Two of the most defining trends of the nineteenth century were the growth of international trade and the increased role of government activities in the economy. In the conjuncture between these developments lie taxes on foreign trade. Sweden was one of the examples where customs revenue became the single most important source of revenue before WWI. This article sets out to test how this source of revenue could increase as much as it did. The analysis focuses mainly on trade policy and how tariffs were set and how that affected revenue. The results show that Swedish liberalisation of trade forced a switch in the fiscal structure of tariffs, moving revenue to fewer commodities. Increased importance was given to consumption goods with lower elasticity of demand. Trade continued to increase under fiscal taxation, which led to increases in revenue. During the early period increased revenue was achieved with higher tariffs on a few key commodities. Towards the end of the century tariffs on agricultural and capital goods became more fiscally relevant, which could have clashed with protectionist intentions. The article highlights that more work is needed on this fiscal component of trade policy.     

Habits and Durability in Consumption,and the Effects of Tariff Protection

Some recent empirical findings are used to motivate employing a model in which consumption exhibits durability, and habits develop over the flow of services provided by them, in order to study the effects of tariff protection on the current account. Durability leads to adjacent substitutability in consumption, while habits are assumed to lead to adjacent complementarity. If durability effects are dominant in the short run, and habit effects in the long run, then tariffs will lead to a current account surplus, which will be followed by a deficit. In the opposite case, a deficit will be followed by a surplus.     

RCEP关税减让对各成员国的经济影响分析

大幅度削减成员国间关税是RCEP协议的核心内容，为了揭示RCEP成员国间关税减让的经济影响，文章首先分析了RCEP成员国间贸易现状、产品结构、进口关税和贸易竞争力，然后，运用GTAP模型模拟RCEP关税减让对各成员国宏观经济和产出的影响，得到结论如下：（1）RCEP关税减让可以缓解中美贸易摩擦对于中国经济的不利影响；（2）就短期而言，RCEP成员国间关税减让可以提高中国、日本、韩国和澳大利亚的GDP、社会福利、居民收入和消费水平等宏观经济效益，同时，还可以提高中国、韩国、澳大利亚、东盟的总产出水平；（3）就长期来说，实施零关税可能显著提升RCEP大多数成员国的宏观经济效益和产出水平。     

Trade and Tax Reforms in a Cash‐in‐Advance Economy

We examine the effects of both tariff‐only and coordinated trade‐tax reforms on market access, government revenue, and welfare for a small monetary economy, under the assumption that a certain fraction of purchases of each good must be financed with cash held in advance. We show that if the cash requirement ratio in the exportable sector is greater than that in the importable, then, contrary to previous results, (i) a uniform radial reduction of tariffs has ambiguous effects on both welfare and market access, (ii) tariff and consumption tax reforms that leave consumer prices unchanged may be more efficient in improving market access and welfare than a reform that involves only tariffs, and (iii) export and production tax reforms that keep producer prices unchanged may be welfare deteriorating.     

The First 100 Years of Tariffs in Australia: the Colonies

This paper reviews the history of tariffs imposed by the six Australian colonies during the nineteenth century. In each of the colonies, we identify the starting dates for the first tariffs, first preferences, and other features, and the turning points in the levels of tariffs. We then construct a time series of the average tariff levels in the individual colonies and an average for all six colonies combined. The conclusion notes general features of the pattern of tariffs and how the main features of colonial tariffs, such as the favourable treatment of intermediate inputs, the complex differentiation of tariff rates within industries, and the protection implicit in the excise tax system all carried over to the Commonwealth Customs Tariff in the twentieth century.     

MFN Status and the Choice of Tariff Regime

The gradualist approach to trade liberalization views the uniform tariffs implied by MFN status as an important step on the path to free trade. We investigate whether a regime of uniform tariffs will be preferable to discriminatory tariffs when countries engage in non-cooperative interaction in multilateral trade. The analysis includes product differentiation and asymmetric costs. We show that with the cost asymmetry the countries will disagree on the choice of tariff regime. When the choice of import tariffs and export subsidies is made sequentially the uniform tariff regime may not be sustainable, because of an incentive to deviate to a discriminatory regime. Hence, an international body is needed to ensure compliance with tariff agreement.     

Anglo‐American trade costs during the first era of globalization: the contribution of a bilateral tariff series†

Previous scholarship has suggested that British trade was generally unaffected by foreign tariffs during the period from 1870 to 1913. This article focuses specifically on Anglo‐American trade, which was the largest bilateral flow of trade during the first era of globalization, and finds that tariffs were the sole intertemporal determinant of Anglo‐American trade costs. However, the determinacy of tariffs for Anglo‐American trade costs only becomes apparent when the tariff variable incorporates a measure of the bilateral American tariff toward Britain, which this article reconstructs. The article concludes by claiming that Anglo‐American trade represents a major qualification to any emerging consensus that foreign tariffs were of minor significance to the trade of late nineteenth‐century Britain.     

加快经济转型 全面应对碳关税冲击

当前发达国家正在设立各种碳壁垒,试图分摊碳减排的代价,其中利用碳关税设置重重壁垒将是发达国家建立另类霸权的新趋势。各国国际收支平衡、碳贸易摩擦、汇率问题、碳减排配额及其分配问题等都将与碳关税的征收高度联系起来。中国必须通过加快经济转型,全方位应对碳关税冲击。     

资本积累下的动态关税模型——基于互补品贸易的分析

本文是对Calzolari and Lambertini(2007)的模型的一个拓展,尝试性地对在考虑到资本积累下的互补产品进行了动态关税分析。该模型建立在Bertrand-Ramsey竞争的微分对策之上(differential game)。分析表明,该模型同样存在两种稳态:"需求驱动"的稳态和Ramsey的"黄金律"稳态。在"需求驱动"的稳态下,如果只考虑本国厂商的利益且税率足够高,政府就会征税,但降低了本国的总福利;在Ramsey的"黄金律"稳态下,征税提高本国总福利,政府也会征税,前提是对方不征收关税。     

国际贸易视角下的低碳经济

低碳经济已成为世界各国应对全球气候变化的战略选择,而实施低碳发展就必须对现有国际贸易理论和实践进行创新。本文对国际贸易背景下我国低碳发展的具体措施和关键环节进行了说明,指出我国应根据国情,加快技术进步,提高能源利用效率以及降低碳排放强度。结合当前国际上颇受争议的碳关税问题,我们认为,碳关税的征收不仅不能降低碳排放,减缓气候变化,相反,碳关税的实施有可能偏离最初的减排设想,加剧发展中国家的负担,导致发展中国家和发达国家出现贸易纠纷。为此,本文分析了碳关税的涵义及其对我国贸易活动和相关产业可能带来的冲击,强调我国应充分运用减排领域的比较优势尤其是联合国倡导的国际原则来解决今后贸易和环境领域可能出现的争端。     

电价交叉补贴阻碍绿色发展效率吗——来自中国工业的经验证据

文章以2007-2013年中国30个省、自治区和直辖市为样本,用NDDF-DEA方法评估了各地区工业绿色发展效率,运用CLAD估计方法实证分析了电价交叉补贴对工业绿色发展效率的作用机制。结果表明,从全国层面来看,电价交叉补贴通过要素投入和成本机制对中国工业绿色发展效率产生消极影响;从分地区层面来看,虽然电价交叉补贴对各地区工业绿色发展效率的影响途径一致体现于要素投入和成本机制,但其影响程度存在较大的空间差异,电价交叉补贴会显著阻碍东部地区工业绿色发展效率提高,而对中西部地区工业绿色发展效率没有显著消极影响,甚至有利于工业绿色发展效率提高。     

Factor adjustment implications of a free trade agreement between the United States and Thailand

Changes in intra-industry specialization indicators are used to assess factor adjustment pressures that may be experienced by U.S. and Thai industries from a proposed U.S.–Thailand Free Trade Agreement (FTA). Many industries experienced large increases in intra-industry trade over the 2000–2008 period. Ten U.S. industries are found to be candidates for factor adjustment pressures based on past experiences. These industries account for 38% of all U.S. imports from Thailand and 4% of imports from all trading partners. Results also show that nine Thai industries face possible adjustment pressures. These industries account for 9% of Thai imports from the United States. An FTA should result in a larger increase in U.S. exports to Thailand than U.S. imports from Thailand because Thai exporters face much lower tariffs in the U.S. market than do U.S. exporters in the Thai market.     

How Will the Implementation of Zero Tariffs Affect Employment in China?

This paper studies the employment effect of China's possible implementation of zero tariffs by comparing China's most‐favored‐nation tariffs and the tariff schedules of China's signed free trade agreements (FTAs) with the tariff concessions in a typical high‐standard FTA. It finds that there is a large gap between China's current tariff status and a high‐standard FTA, and the implementation of zero tariffs in China would have a significant negative impact on employment in some industries. However, the employment effect of implementing zero tariffs is heterogeneous. Analysis at the industrial level shows that, although employment would drop in a few industries as a result of the implementation of zero tariffs, more jobs would be created in most industries. The overall employment effect of a zero tariff policy would be positive, creating an estimated 8.05 million jobs in China. Therefore, China should consider the adjustment costs brought by the labor movement in different industries and introduce relevant policies to deal with the employment shocks caused by zero tariffs.     

Negotiated tariffs in free entry oligopoly under integrated markets

Using the Nash bargaining approach, this paper analyzes the negotiation of tariffs between two countries in free-entry oligopolies under integrated markets. Employing a symmetric model with linear demand and cost functions, the paper shows that for both countries Pareto-efficient negotiated tariffs are larger than the tariffs at the Nash equilibrium of a non-cooperative tariff game (tariff war) in which each country imposes its optimum tariff.     

The effects of the United States granting MFN status to Vietnam

Conclusions In this paper, the direct impacts on Vietnam’s trading opportunities of the U.S. granting MFN treatment were first estimated by building up from the resulting level of tariffs applied to individual traded goods. Then, the economic impacts on Vietnam were inferred, using simulations with the Global Trade Analysis model. The results revealed that the increased market access to the United States brings significant welfare gains to Vietnam. The direct terms of trade improvement resulting from increased market access accounts for 60 percent of the total gain, with the remaining 40 percent derived from second-best induced gains in efficiency. Exports to the United States more than doubled, from $338 million to $768 million.¹³ The estimated increase in exports of clothing is especially significant, with these exports increasing almost fifteenfold, while exports of agricultural commodities decreased slightly. Total welfare as measured by Equivalent Variation increased by $ 118 million or 0.9 percent increase in real expenditure per capita. By granting MFN status to Vietnam, the United States also gains from improved resource allocation, although some of the gains are offset by deterioration in its terms of trade. The gains for the United States were estimated to be around $56 million per year.     

The impact of destination tariffs on China’s exports: Country,firm, and product perspectives

Based on multi-product heterogeneous firm trade theory, we combine China's customs data with the World Integrated Trade Solution’s (WITS) tariff data from 2002 to 2013 and analyze the impact of destination tariffs on China's exports at the country, firm, and product levels. The results reveal that tariffs had a negative effect on country-level exports and their extensive margins. After controlling for the inter-firm composition effect, tariffs had negative effects on firm-level exports and their intensive margins, but positive effects on their extensive margins. After also controlling for the within-firm export composition effect, tariffs had a negative impact on the exports of core products; however, the negative impact diminished as the core grade and technological content of the products increased. Using these elasticities to analyze Sino-U.S. trade frictions, we determine that the additional U.S. tariffs reduced China's exports of high-tech products more than its medium- and low-tech products.     

Impact of Tariffs on Industries and Prices in Finland during the Interwar Period

Abstract

While there has been some analysis of the role of tariffs in Finland during the interwar period, quantitative estimates of the benefits and drawbacks are quite rare. This article examines the impact of tariffs on industries value added and prices during the interwar period calculating the effective rate of protection as well as using an input-output price model. The basis for both calculations is an input-output table describing the Finnish economy in 1928. It is argued that the Finnish tariff policy was basically a contra-price-fall policy, directed merely towards agricultural and food products. The focus was on securing the domestic supply of food products. The results also suggest that tariffs did not provide sufficient protection to new industries – contradicting the infant industry argument repeated in some of the earlier studies.     

战略性出口关税:能够有效缓解贸易摩擦的短期措施

本文运用异质产品的古诺(伯川德)模型以及将水平、垂直差异化产品纳入D-S模型,分析了战略性出口关税对于出口行业,进口竞争行业以及进口国社会福利的影响,并将结果与其他战略性贸易政策进行对比和分析。我们的结论是:我国通过战略性出口关税来缓解贸易摩擦的效果要优于使用其他战略性贸易政策,这有利于调整出口产业结构,培育出口企业自身能力,并与我国的长期发展目标相吻合。但是战略性出口关税可能带来的社会经济问题不容忽视。     

New borders: Evidence from the former Soviet Union

New Borders: Evidence from the Former Soviet Union. — We study the effects of trade barriers and the persistence of past linkages on trade flows in the former Soviet Union (FSU). Estimating a gravity equation on 1987–1996 trade between nine Russian regions and fourteen FSU republics, we find that Russian regions traded nearly twice as much with each other as with republics in the reform period (1994–1996). In contrast, they did not trade significantly more with each other than with republics in the prereform period (1987–1990). Our results suggest that the bias towards domestic trade in the reform period is primarily a result of tariffs. We also find that past linkages, such as infrastructure, production and consumption chains, and business networks, have limited the reorientation of trade.