Are Real GDP Levels Trend,Difference, or Regime-Wise Trend Stationary? Evidence from Panel Data Tests Incorporating Structural Change

The unit root hypothesis for international real GDP and real GDP per capita has been the subject of extensive investigation. Using panel methods that incorporate structural change, we reject the unit root null in favor of the alternative of trend stationarity, with one or two changes in the slope for two panels with postwar data and one or two changes in both the slope and the intercept for a panel with long-horizon data. We conclude that real GDP levels are better characterized as regime-wise trend stationary than as either trend stationary without structural change or difference stationary with unit roots.     

Are G7 per capita real GDP levels non-stationary, 1870–2001?

In this paper we examine whether or not G7 per capita income can be classified as a stationary process using data for over a century. The unit root null hypothesis is tested using the recently developed Lagrange multiplier test which allows for at most two structural breaks. We are able to reject the unit root null hypothesis for all the countries at the 5 percent level or better, except for Italy and Germany.     

Contracting out by the public sector: theory, evidence, prospects

Unlike privatization, contracting out (or simply 'contracting')does not generally involve the sale of publicly owned assets.Yet it has been widely used as a mechanism for reform of public-sectorservice provision. Contracting introduces ex-ante competition-competitionfor the market through competitive tendering. This article examinesboth the theory and evidence of contracting by the public sector.It considers the theoretical conditions, such as contractualincompleteness and the ownership pf physical assets, which mayimpede efficient contracting. It also reviews the internationalevidence which suggests that savings in the order of 20 percent are achievable, without sacrificing the quality of serviceprovided. In the UK, savings of between £240m and £280mhave been estimated for contracts let at the central governmentlevel. Substantial savings have also been generated by contractingat the local government level.     

A Kuznets curve analysis of ozone-depleting substances and the impact of the Montreal Protocol

This paper examines the relationship between countries' propensityto emit chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and income per capita. Themain part of the analysis uses dynamic estimation methods ona panel of CFC production. In contrast to static analyses, wefind statistically significant quadratic relationship betweenincome and CFC production, with a critical income level in theKuznets curve of $16,050. This reinforces the trend observedin other papers that global pollutants have higher criticalincome levels than local or urban pollutants. In addition, itsuggests that, in the absence of any international agreement,CFC production in the poorest countries would ensure that thereis a substantial rise in global production over the next 50years.     

Urbanization, population transition, and growth

This paper analyzes a dual economy consisting of urban marketareas and less developed rural areas with or without local markets.Urban areas have better opportunities for earnings and educationthan rural areas. Rural families choose whether to move to urbanareas at costs that differ from location to location. As percapita output grows relative to the moving cost, urbanizationproceeds, leading to lower fertility, more investments in humanand physical capital per child relative to output per worker,and faster economic growth. These impacts are stronger if ruralareas have no access to markets.     

Cultural transmission, socialization and the population dynamics of multiple-trait distributions

This paper studies the population dynamics of multiple preference traits in a model of intergenerational cultural transmission. Parents socialize and transmit their preferences to their children with endogenous intensities. Populations concentrated on a single cultural group are in general not stable. There is a unique stable stationary distribution, and it supports two or more cultural groups, in particular those with greater intolerance with respect to others' traits. The larger the heterogeneity of intolerance levels across cultural groups, the smaller the number of traits that are supported in the stable stationary distribution.     

Immigration and labour-market outcomes in the United States: a political-economy puzzle

Based on a larger survey of the literature (Gaston and Nelson,2000), this paper argues: (i) that econometric research uniformlyfinds very small labour-market effects of immigration; (ii)that labour and trade economists have differed in their interpretationof this finding; and (iii) that this difference is driven exclusivelyby different dimensionality assumptions (with labour economistspreferring a 1-sector x m-factor model and trade economistsan n-sector x m-factor model). It is then argued that the tradeeconomists' model, along with its presumption of factor-priceinsensitivity to immigration is the more useful as a presumptiongenerator. The paper concludes with a discussion of the political-economyimplications of these results.     

Re-examining the Fisher Effect: An Application of Small Sample Distributions of the Covariate Unit Root Test

Abstract

This article employs the covariate unit root test proposed by Elliott and Jansson to investigate the stationarity properties of real interest rates. Instead of blindly trusting the asymptotic distribution of the test, we extend Rudebusch's method to estimate its finite sample distributions under the null and alternative hypotheses. With these distributions, we can obtain the probabilities that the test statistic comes from the null and alternative hypotheses, and quantify the asymptotic size as well as the test power for each specific series. Our simulation experiments show that first, due to the higher power raised by the inclusion of covariates, the test can overwhelmingly reject the unit root null for the 16 industrialized countries; secondly, the Ng and Perron tests deliver lower powers in most countries, and thus lead to the false conclusion of non-stationary real interest rates. Finally, allowing for multiple endogenous breaks in the real interest rates provides only stationary evidence in half of the 16 countries.     

Non-linear Co-integration between Nominal Interest Rates and Inflation: An Examination of the Fisher Hypothesis for Asian Countries

Abstract

This paper examines the long-run relationship between nominal interest rates and inflation for a group of Asian countries over the period February 1973–April 2007. We argue that the empirical failure to find evidence supporting the Fisher effect in previous studies may be attributed to the presence of non-linearities in the long-run relationship between nominal interest rates and inflation. We present evidence that the Fisher relation contains significant logistic smooth transition autoregression (LSTAR)-type non-linearity. This type of non-linearity is consistent with inflation targeting and the opportunistic behavior of policy-makers. Applying a non-linear unit root test to the residuals obtained from the Fisher relation decisively rejects the null hypothesis of a unit root against the alternative of non-linear but globally stationary in all the cases.     

民主政治是政治文明的标志

文章从政治文明的基本概念入手,通过三个层次论证了民主政治是政治文明的标志。首先,民主政治是政治文明的发展趋势,论述了政治文明具有动态性,总是与人类历史发展的一定阶段相适应;其次,民主政治可以借鉴人类的有益成果,论述了国家间在正确认识政治文明的特殊性与普遍性的前     

Credible Carbon Policy

The paper sets out the credibility problem in carbon policy,provides a number of examples of non-credibility in recent energypolicy, and identifies the costs of failing to address it. Thetime inconsistency of carbon policy—arising because ofmultiple objectives, the irreversibility of energy investments,and the scope for ex-post reneging on ex-ante commitments toset policy instruments, such as carbon taxes or emission permits,at appropriate levels—is set in a conceptual framework.Analogies with monetary policy are drawn, and a solution tothe time-inconsistency problem is proposed through the establishmentof an energy/carbon agency.     

Management Practices, Work--L ife Balance, and Productivity: A Review of Some Recent Evidence

Increasing product-market competition is believed to be a drivingforce behind higher productivity. However, even those criticsof globalization who accept this argument claim that there isa hard trade-off because tougher competition comes at the priceof reducing work—life balance (WLB). Optimists, by contrast,argue that competition can spur better WLB practices and thereforehigher productivity, so there is a ‘win—win’situation. To address this issue we use an innovative surveytool to collect the first international data on management practicesand WLB practices, surveying 732 medium-sized manufacturingfirms in the USA, France, Germany, and the UK. We find thatthe USA has the best management practices but the worst work—lifebalance. When we look within countries, however, we reject thepessimistic ‘trade-off’ model. First, WLB outcomesare significantly associated with better management, so thatwell-run firms are both more productive and offer better conditionsfor their employees. Second, tougher competition increases averagemanagement quality but does not negatively affect employees'working environment. As with many other studies, better WLBpractices are associated with significantly higher productivity.This relationship disappears, however, after controlling forthe overall quality of management. Footnotes ¹ E-mail addresses: nbloom{at}stanford.edu; j.vanreenen{at}lse.ac.uk     

The trend behavior of real exchange rates: Evidence from OECD countries

The Trend Behavior of Real Exchange Rates: Evidence from OECD Countries. — This paper examines the validity of purchasing power parity (PPP) under the current float using real effective exchange rates of eleven OECD countries. The author employs a test which allows for a one-time change in the intercept and/or in the slope of the trend function. The timing of the structural break is treated as unknown and is endogenously searched from the data. It is found that for a vast majority of countries, the real exchange rate can be characterized as a stationary process with a broken trend. The paper provides support for PPP in the long run.     

The risk premium for evaluating public projects

Governments face a lower apparent cost of capital than privatefirms. However, the low cost of borrowing by governments doesnot reflect superior capabilities to choose or manage projects.Instead, it reflects the fact that governments have recourseto taxpayers, who de facto provide a fairly open-ended creditinsurance to the government. If taxpayers were remunerated forthe risk they assume in the case of tax-financed projects, thenex ante there would be no capital cost advantage to governmentfinance. The risk premium on government finance would, in principle,be no different from that of private investors. There is thusno justification on the basis of capital cost advantages forgovernment funding or guaranteeing the provision of privategoods or services. Privatization is, therefore, valuable, ifit improves business efficiency when evaluated at the risk-adjustedprivate cost of capital. No more need be demonstrated in a value-for-moneytest.     

Generalized purchasing power parity and the case of the European Union as a successful currency area

This article uses multicountry purchasing power parity (PPP) tests to study the success of the European monetary system (EMS) in creating a successful currency area for a stable European monetary union. If the EMS has sufficiently integrated the fundamentals within the European Union, then real exchange rates between member countries will share a common stationary trend when denominated by a common outside currency. Previous research using two-country PPP tests have been inadequate in explaining the nonstationary nature of real exchange rates between the EMS countries and nonmember countries. The use of generalized PPP tests can show that even though individual exchange rates within the EMS may appear to be nonstationary with respect to outside countries, some of them will combine to form a currency union with a stable stationary trend.     

The assessment: financial instability

This paper analyses the causes, consequences, and cures forfinancial instability based on nine articles on this subjectin the Oxford Review of Economic Policy. It argues that thearticles suggest a high degree of consensus about the policiesrequired to minimize risks of financial instability and thepolicies required to tackle it if it emerges.     

Competition Policy and Innovation

The question addressed by the paper is whether standard proceduresand widely accepted insights of competition policy remain validwhen one deals with potentially anti-competitive conduct ininnovative industries. The question of appropriateness arisesbecause competition in these industries displays features thatare radically different from those encountered in traditionalsectors of the economy. Competition is for the market ratherthan in the market, dynamic aspects of competition matter morethan allocative aspects, intellectual property rights (IPR)reinforce network effects present in knowledge-based industries.The paper examines why these differences matter with respectto market delineation, assessment of intensity of competition,and predatory conduct. It also raises the question as to whatextent competition law limits the innovators' rights not tolicense their inventions to others, especially when they correspondto essential facilities. It explores the problem created byexcessive protection as well as the hold-up problem that arisesin a context of sequential innovations. It examines the antitrustposition in regard to the treatment of collaborative arrangementsamong holders of IPRs, such as cross-licences, patent-pools,and joint-standard settings. Finally, it presents a discussionon a possible role of competition law in shaping intellectualproperty laws in order to benefit from the complementarity betweenintellectual protection and antitrust rules.     

广西旅游业就业效应研究

文章通过对广西旅游就业进行分析发现,广西的旅游部门不仅能吸纳相当比例的新增劳动力,而且还能吸纳其他行业转移的劳动力;旅游特征产业对劳动力具有很强的吸纳作用;旅游就业规模地区差异明显,呈向旅游中心地区聚集态势;从整体上看,各旅游特征产业每获得1万元的增加值,就能带动全社会9.5281人就业。     

Capital structure and short-term decisions

Share price pressure can lead to managerial myopia as managersface incentives to make short-run decisions. We show how long-rundebt can negate myopic behavior by serving as an incentive tohave high future earnings in order to avoid the risk of bankruptcy.We show how increases in leverage could have been a signal inresponse to growing share price pressure in the 1980s. We obtaina theory of capital structure whose predictions are in linewith recent empirically observed patterns. We demonstrate thebenefits of high bankruptcy penalties in inducing efficientdecision making, and show how debt may, ex post, lead to inefficientdecisions being taken in an effort to pay it off. This ex postconsequence of debt can potentially undermine its ex ante incentivebenefits.     

A nonlinear pairwise approach for the convergence of UK regional house prices

We examine the long-run convergence across 12 UK regional house prices using a pairwise approach. The time period spans from 1983:1 to 2012:4. Linear, nonlinear and asymmetric unit root tests are considered for assessing the stationarity of all possible pairs. The test statistic for convergence is based on the percentage of unit root test rejections across all regional house price differentials. The percent of the pairs that reject the null increase from 6% in the linear ADF case to 53% for the nonlinear unit root. Probit analysis reveals that house price differentials in the South are more likely to be stationary and as a result tend to converge more compared to the North.