农户禀赋异质性对风险偏好的影响研究——来自广东集体林区的实证检验

文章以广东省集体林区320户农户为研究对象,以经济学实验下测度的农户风险偏好为研究基础,采用多元线性回归法分析农户禀赋特征对其风险偏好的影响。研究结果表明,农户的性别、年龄、受教育程度等个体禀赋;家庭财富、非农务农人数等家庭禀赋对农户的风险偏好产生不同程度的显著影响。由此对提出进一步深化集体林权制度改革,落实相关林业优惠政策,吸引外流的年轻劳动力回乡发展林业;针对农户资源约束和风险偏好,帮助农户认识风险,推广不同风险等级的林业项目、新技术和新型林业金融产,设计多元化林业保险产品等建议和对策。     

考虑消费者绿色偏好的排污企业生产决策分析——基于前景理论

在排污许可权交易体制下,企业污染物处理的途径可以分为:采纳绿色生产技术、末端削减以及排污权交易。以前景理论为基础,构建包涵消费者绿色偏好参数和风险态度系数的生产优化模型,研究了排污权价格不确定性企业生产优化问题。研究结果发现消费者绿色偏好会影响企业对排污权交易市场的重视程度,从而对企业生产决策产生影响。同时,企业的风险态度会决定企业最优决策偏离风险中性时最优决策的程度。     

货币政策与风险偏好关系研究——基于动态随机一般均衡模型

为了研究中国货币政策与家庭风险偏好之间的关系,在DSGE框架下运用方差分解和脉冲响应等方法分析不同风险偏好条件下利率冲击和货币供给冲击等对中国经济波动的影响;研究结果表明:首先,货币政策方面的冲击解释了中国经济的大部分波动;其次,代表性家庭风险偏好越小,经济对货币供给变动的反应越灵敏。     

大学生创业风险偏好逆转影响因素的实证分析

创业意向及其影响因素的研究,是创业学的理论热点和应用基础。借鉴风险经济学和行为经济学的现有研究成果,利用方差分析和Logistic回归模型,探讨了大学生创业风险偏好的逆转现象及其影响因素。研究表明：信息及其完备程度、信息呈现的方式对于大学生创业风险态度偏好的逆转都具有显著的影响。结论对大学生创业的理论和实践,尤其是相关扶持政策的制定和实施,都有着十分重要的意义。     

基于风险偏好理论的消防安全管理研究

随着经济社会的快速发展，我国消防安全事故频发，给人民生命财产安全造成巨大损失，个人、企业、政府对消防安全的风险偏好对消防安全管理效果影响深远，分析不同类型个体及组织风险偏好特点以及这种风险偏好特点对消防安全管理的影响，进而以风险喜好型群体为重点，从宣传教育的角度、经济激励、政府公共消防管理三个维度提出政策建议，并使这些措施在政府主导、社会共同参与的环境下形成合力，促使风险喜好型的风险态度转变。     

破解中国对外直接投资区位分布的“制度风险偏好”之谜北大核心CSSCI

针对当前中国OFDI的"制度风险偏好"问题,本文基于2003-2014年中国OFDI区位分布的流量数据,从国际资本流动的视角,使用面板分位数模型考察东道国制度风险与中国OFDI区位分布之间的关系。研究发现:中国OFDI区位分布的所谓"制度风险偏好"并不是绝对的,当使用相对制度质量指标,并且控制东道国资本密集度与自然资源丰富程度的影响后,"制度风险偏好"消失,并呈现出与主流国际资本流动理论完全相符的风险规避特征。因此,"制度风险偏好"很大程度上是由于中国OFDI更多地流向经济发展水平较低、自然资源更为丰富的区域造成的。     

出生排序与行为偏好的经济实验研究

作为社会科学研究中的一个家庭背景指标,出生顺序和子女性别结构会影响人们的行为选择以及行为结果。文章以大学生为被试,采用实验室实验方法研究了出生顺序和子女性别结构对信任行为、风险偏好与竞争偏好的影响。实验研究发现：二胎的信任水平和竞争偏好都显著高于一胎。虽然二胎的风险偏好高于一胎,但统计上并不显著;同时,子女性别结构会影响出生顺序效应。在信任水平方面,混合结构下的二胎显著高于一胎,而同性结构下的出生顺序效应并不显著;在风险偏好与竞争偏好方面,同性结构下的二胎显著高于一胎,而混合结构下的出生顺序效应不显著。文章结论能够加深人们对不同出生顺序下个体行为偏好异质性的理解,具有一定的政策含义。     

考虑消费者行为的易逝品动态定价研究

在消费者有限理性行为上考虑其策略型和短视型的不同特征，在非理性行为上考虑支付意愿、风险偏好及参考价格三个衡量维度，综合构建消费者效用函数，研究了在消费者行为异质作用下，易逝品零售商的动态定价，并运模拟算例对上述研究进行了演算。研究表明：消费者风险偏好程度较高时，零售商收益会随着策略消费者比例和消费者估值折扣系数的增大而减小，风险偏好较低时可缓解或消除策略消费者的不利影响；零售商的最优定价策略为降价策略；第二阶段消费者产品获得率会对零售商收益产生影响。     

公平与再分配--基于个体再分配偏好的实验研究

越来越多的经济学家利用实验经济学方法对公平和再分配问题进行了研究。这些研究基于个体再分配偏好视角展开。现有的实验结论表明,个体的再分配偏好是利他动机、自利动机以及风险保障动机综合作用的结果;社会的税收成本、效率、表决机制、收入决定机制以及个体的信念、性别等因素都会对再分配偏好产生影响。实验研究方法有助于充分了解再分配偏好的影响因素,能够为宏观层面再分配制度的设计提供微观依据。     

虚拟社区特征对消费者行为的影响

本文通过理论研究归纳出了虚拟社区的三个特征:功能特征、社会特征、精神特征,通过对这些特征的理论分析并运用诸如:"爽体验"、"感知风险"、"TAM模型"等理论来研究虚拟社区对消费者购买态度的影响,进而间接的研究其对消费者行为的影响.     

Penetration and Post-infection Development of Meloidogyne Incognita on Tobacco as Treated by Rhizobacteria Pseudomonas Fluorescens Strain P-72-10

The bio-control potential of rhizospere bacteria Pseudomonas fluorescens against plant-parasite nematode had been demonstrated. P. fluorescens had shown the effect to enhance tobacco resistance to root-knot nematode Meloidogyne incognita. Inoculation with P. fluoreseens in tobacco could lead to significant reductions in the number of juveniles that penetrated tobacco root and further life stage development of the juveniles. The number of juveniles penetrated into tobac- co root in treatment with P. fluorescens is significantly different from CK at 2DAI, 6DAI, 8DAI and 10DAI. Significant reduction and delayed development of juveniles that penetrated into tobacco root and treated were observed in treatment at 14DAI, 21DAI, 28DAI and 35DAI. In addition, P. fluoreseens treatment leads to a significant reduction in the number of eggs per egg-mass at 35 DAI. The results show P. fluorescens induced a continuously suppression on root-knot nema- tode M. incognita throughout their entire early infection phase of root penetration, subsequent life stage development and reproduction.     

On the Major Transformation of the Asia-Pacific Regional Structure北大核心CSSCISSCI

Recent years have witnessedsignificant changes in the Asia-Pacific regionalstructure featuring the shift in power balance among related countries as well as adjust-ments in their respective regional strategies. So what is the prevailing trend in thistransformation and what kind of regional order will likely emerge in the future？ To an-swer these questions, the paper tries to explore the following dimensions： the evolvingregional context, shift in power balance and power conversion, geo-political and geo-e-conomic developments and interactions between them, and evolving regional order. Asthe study shows, the broadening of regional geographical scope, the rise in the numberof actors involved, as well as changesin the relations among them, have combined tocast a pluralistic and complex flavor to the regional structure. While the power balanceamong China, the United States and Japan shifts, and power conversion is also occur-ring. China and Japan are paying increasing attention to their security roles, whereasthe United States under the Obama administration laid more stress on expanding itsgeo-economic clout. In spite of the intensifying geopolitical competition among China,the United States and Japan in recent years, a Sino-US strategic compromise-whichholds the key to regional geopolitics-isother front, some kind of geo-economicmore likely to take place in the future. On thecooperation will probably emerge. In the longerterm, it will be the geo-economic trend thatwill prevail over the geopolitical trend inthe region. Finally, the future evolution of regional order wiI1 mainly follow the eco-nomic logic, accompanied by the dilutionof its hegemonic and hierarchical nature.Hence, a pluralistic and complex regional community will emerge.     

For Better or for Worse? Local Impacts of the Decentralization of Indonesia’s Forest Sector

This paper quantifies the local impacts of mechanized logging on forest-dependent communities in Indonesia, before and after decentralization. A conceptual framework incorporates financial, social, enforcement, rent-seeking, and environmental impacts. Using data from 60 communities in East Kalimantan, the empirical results suggest that significantly more households received financial and in-kind benefits after decentralization compared to before. Many communities engaged in self-enforcement activities against firms both before and after decentralization. Post-decentralization, a significantly higher proportion of households perceived community forest ownership. There were few significant differences in perceived environmental impacts. Little evidence exists of a post-decentralization trade-off between environmental and financial contractual provisions.     

以资本管理为核心的银行治理综合评价指标研究

商业银行的特殊性体现在风险性、外部性和多重治理目标上，尤其集中体现在风险管理的本质上。风险管理日益成为现代商业银行的主体活动和核心职能，资本管理成为现代商业银行风险管理的核心。在整合EVA和RAROC指标的基础上。文章构建了以资本管理为核心的银行治理的综合评价指标，以求真实反映银行经营的成果，有效衡量风险收益和风险成本的对比关系，从而反映以资本管理为核心的银行风险管理的过程、能力和效率。     

Organization and incentives in the age of sail

The British Navy in the age of sail was the most successful bureaucracy of its time. Its organization and incentive structures differed importantly from contemporaneous private sailing ventures, but closely resembled those of today’s large corporations. To induce efficient effort, the navy used a hierarchical tournament, in which sailors competed for higher pay that came with promotions based on relative performance. Promotion probabilities, the option value of future promotions, and the higher effort required of men in higher ranks and on larger vessels, combined to yield a highly skewed pay structure.     

The German Hanse and Bergen – new perspectives on an old subject

Abstract

The Hanseatic League and her kontors (trading posts) were an integral part of the medieval trade system in Northern Europe. Hanse merchants dominated many markets in this region and managed to maintain a monopoly-like role in towns like Novgorod and Bergen for many centuries. Consequently, one focus of historical research about the Hanseatic League lay on the mechanisms that enabled the Hanse merchants to keep that strong of a position for such a long time.

This article is part of the discussion about this topic. Based on Lübeck merchants with business interest in the Norwegian town of Bergen, the so-called Bergenfahrers (Bergen travellers), it will give new insights into the Hansards' economical and social organization. The three main points are (a) the integration of the Bergen market in the Hanseatic trade network as an intermediary trading place on the vivid East–West route of Hanse trade; (b) the importance of the Bergenfahrers within the Hanse merchants' economical, social and political networks; and (c) the structure of the Bergenfahrers network patterns in the late Middle Ages.

In addition to new insights into the important role of Bergen and the Bergenfahrers within Lübeck's and the other Wendish Hanse towns' trading system, this articles provides further proof for the usefulness of the methods of Social Network Analysis in medieval economic research.     

Markteintrittstiming von Telekommunikationsdiensteanbietern

Zusammenfassung Die vorliegende Studie analysiert für 87 Neuprodukteinführungen (NPE) und Auslandsmarkteintritte (AME) von Telekommunikations(TK)-Diensteanbietern in Deutschland, zu denen 42 Schlüsselinformanten in einer schriftlichen Befragung Auskunft gaben, (1) inwieweit deren zeitliche Eintrittspositionierung durch Marktcharakteristika und Unternehmensressourcen erkl?rbar ist sowie (2) inwieweit und gegebenenfalls unter welchen unternehmensexternen und -internen Situationsbedingungen deren Markteintrittstiming mit dem wahrgenommenen Eintrittserfolg assoziiert ist. Ein früher Markteintritt wurde dann realisiert, wenn die Wettbewerbsintensit?t im adressierten Gesch?ft niedrig und das Budget für den Expansionsschritt überdurchschnittlich ausfielen. Zwischen dem Markteintrittstiming und der Beurteilung des Eintrittserfolgs bestand ein nicht monotoner, umgekehrt U-f?rmiger Zusammenhang: Frühe Folger wiesen signifikant bessere Erfolgswerte auf als Pioniere und sp?te Folger, deren Erfolgsniveaus nicht signifikant divergierten. In einer Industrie, die durch starke externe Netzeffekte gepr?gt ist, fallen offenbar die Nachteile eines Markteintritts als Pionier oder sp?ter Folger st?rker ins Gewicht als die Vorteile dieser beiden zeitlichen Eintrittspositionierungen. Unabh?ngig vom Markteintrittstiming wurden NPE/AME von TK-Unternehmen als erfolgreicher eingestuft, wenn sie sich in einen Markt mit stark wachsender Nachfrage und aufeinander abgestimmt (re)agierenden Wettbewerbern mit qualitativ überdurchschnittlichen, abw?rtskompatiblen, erprobbaren und wenig erkl?rungsbedürftigen TK-Diensten engagierten.      

Financial Reporting and Trade Credit: Evidence from Mandatory IFRS Adoption*

We investigate the effect of mandatory IFRS adoption on trade credit. We document that firms in countries that adopt IFRS receive more trade credit from their suppliers, consistent with improved financial reporting quality and comparability playing a role in facilitating informal financing. This increase is larger for countries with a low level of societal trust, a poor pre‐IFRS‐adoption information environment, and stronger legal enforcement. These cross‐sectional results suggest that the conditions under which higher‐quality information is made publicly available affect suppliers' decisions to provide trade credit. This increase is also larger for firms with greater exposure to foreign markets, a finding that highlights the importance of more comparable international financial reporting standards in facilitating cross‐country trade credit. We also find that IFRS adoption has a stronger positive effect on trade credit for firms with greater liquidity needs. Finally, we find that firms in countries that adopt IFRS also extend more trade credit to their customers. Overall, our results support the notion that financial reporting can have a causal effect on trade credit.