基于集群根植性的合作创新行为演化路径分析

集群根植性对合作创新行为的影响不仅限于隐形知识溢出。本文在演化博弈模型的基础上引入互惠性理论对合作创新行为进行研究。分析产业集群根植性对企业间合作创新行为的影响。演化博弈分析的结果表明:根植性的强弱能够影响合作创新行为的演化方向。根植性足够强时,合作行为能够为成员带来巨大收益,此时系统将向合作均衡演化最终实现双赢;根植性不够强时,成员无法抵抗不合作行为的诱惑,此时系统将向不合作均衡演化最终演化为"囚徒困境";根植性强弱介于上述两者之间时,演化方向由博弈双方初始状态决定。     

退出与筛选机制中集群间机会主义行为演化路径分析

文章利用演化博弈理论,建立两个企业集群间企业合作竞争机制演化博弈的模型,分析伴随退出与寻找机制的企业合作竞争机制的演变。研究表明:继续合作的可能性与寻求合作所花费的时间对于机会主义行为演化发挥着重要的作用。当继续合作的可能性足够大时,寻求合作所花费的时间决定了系统是否向互惠者演化;当继续合作的可能性过低时,寻求合作所花费的时间将决定系统向"囚徒困境"或"鹰鸽"进行演化。     

伴有研发风险的产学研合作博弈分析

在产学研合作中,各博弈方的诚信度和研发风险因子是非常重要的因素。本文通过建立演化博弈模型，深层次地揭示了产学研合作机理，并研究在诚信度和研发风险因子影响下产学研合作机制的演化过程。     

组织协调博弈与合作的形成

组织内部合作规范的形成是组织理论和实践关注的一个焦点。但纯粹基于支付比较分析的演化博弈论在解释组织协调失灵问题时存在着明显的缺陷,解决协调失灵问题需要另辟思路。本文从各种协调机制之间协同演化的角度阐述提高合作者配对概率和创造合作形成的组织学习环境的重要性,这种制度协同演化的思路对解决组织内部合作形成的问题更加切合实际,对于演化博弈论如何克服弱点和发挥优势也具有理论意义。     

政府干预下的本国与外国科技合作演化博弈研究

为判别本国与他国科技合作的演化方向及其实现条件,假定各国科技合作成本或收益为科技创新投入成本的线性函数,通过构建演化博弈动态方程、矩阵求解和数值仿真模拟对本国与外国之间的科技合作行为进行博弈分析,得出以下结论：策略稳定均衡点及演化路径受博弈双方参与者初始状态影响;在一定条件下,科技合作成本越低,双方合作欲望越强烈,若科技合作成本超过某一阈值,将驱使博弈双方采取不合作策略,引入政府控制力度参数可以一定程度上加强博弈双方合作可能性。     

厦门市网络游戏企业的空间集聚与合作网络结构

本文利用2010—2020年的厦门市网络游戏企业数据，在分析厦门市网络游戏企业时空格局演化的基础上，结合企业股权关系及投资数据研究厦门市网络游戏企业合作网络结构及其时空演化特征，结论表明：第一，在企业时空格局方面，厦门市游戏企业的空间布局呈现大集聚、小聚居的空间格局，经历了初期的集聚发展后，逐渐呈现出集聚与分散趋势并存的分布格局，企业区位选择受高等教育资源、集聚经济及交通条件影响；第二，企业间合作网络规模显著增长，合作覆盖不同企业，同时形成一定的“小世界”，网络结构由单核心向多级核心发展，最终形成“多核心”结构，老牌大型游戏厂商的核心地位越发显著；第三，企业合作网络在空间上并未伴随企业集聚而发展，随着企业的空间集聚，企业间合作网络规模显著扩张但呈现出分散化趋势，较强的合作关系多存在于老牌核心企业间，而企业集聚及溢出效应的发挥带动了部分新兴企业的发展。由此，在促成企业主体集聚的同时，挖掘企业间潜在合作关联、发挥龙头企业的主导作用，搭建相应合作平台或项目库将有利于厦门市网络游戏企业的合作网络进一步发展，进而促进产业发展水平的稳步提升。     

邻近性与创新合作：最新研究进展

自邻近性理论提出以来，邻近性在创新合作网络及其演化中的作用得到了很多学者的关注，相关研究丰富而庞杂。从邻近性因素对创新合作的影响、邻近性因素在创新合作中的相互作用以及创新合作对邻近性因素的影响等方面梳理了当前的研究进展，力图在邻近性因素与创新合作构成的复杂系统中厘清相互关系与动态作用机制。在此基础上，针对当前研究中尚未明晰和解决的问题，进一步提出了未来研究中有待持续深入的议题。     

社会两难中惩罚影响合作行为的研究进展及其启示

文章从惩罚促进合作、惩罚破坏合作两个方面，系统回顾了近年来心理学领域和经济学领域在惩罚影响合作问题上所做的研究，并对影响机制问题的研究成果和存在的问题进行了整合。尽管当前研究在情境试验与演化博弈两种研究方法都有新的进展，但对于惩罚影响合作的深层认知机制仍然缺乏有效的整合性理论，且惩罚对合作的影响更多的研究是考察实验室虚拟的公共物品两难情景，结论是否可以外推于其它两难情景或是现实情境还有待研究进一步完善。     

基于社会网络的建筑行业科技创新主体合作网络演化研究——以“华夏建设科学技术奖”为例

对创新主体合作情况进行研究,探究建筑行业创新主体合作现状和演化趋势。根据2007—2021年“华夏建设科学技术奖”获奖情况,以社会网络分析的视角对创新主体合作整体、个体网络及演化特征进行分析。结果表明,创新主体多通过跨类型机构合作方式推进建筑科技创新,“校—企”合作是当前的主要合作模式;合作网络规模不断扩展,创新主体逐渐向一个联通子图聚集,形成具有紧密关系的“小世界”;以同济大学、清华大学为代表的创新主体处于合作网络核心位置,促进边缘主体的建设科技创新合作。     

中亚能源合作演化博弈分析

中国与中亚在地缘、人文、交通管道等多方面有良好的合作基础,近年来又通过"上海合作组织"进一步密切了区域合作关系,该地区有条件成为中国未来油气资源进口的重要战略后备来源,应该成为我国能源外交的重点地区。本研究着眼于国际能源地缘格局,立足于我国能源安全层面之上,运用演化博弈的有限理性和复制动态思想,在假设中亚国家战略偏好固定的情况下,通过建立中亚能源合作的演化博弈模型,试图找出中亚能源合作博弈的演化路径及长期均衡战略。     

Productivity Measurement and the Relationship between Plant Performance and JIT Intensity*

The management accounting and operations management literatures argue that the adoption of advanced manufacturing practices, such as just‐in‐time (JIT), necessitates complementary changes in a firm's management accounting and control systems. This study uses a sample of JIT and non‐JIT plants operating in the Canadian automotive parts manufacturing industry to study the interaction among performance outcomes, intensity of JIT practices, and productivity measurement. This study provides evidence that productivity measurement mediates the relationship between performance outcomes and intensity of JIT practices. Specifically, both JIT and non‐JIT plants that use a broader range of productivity measures are more efficient and profitable than other plants. Also, plants that employ industry‐driven productivity measures are more profitable and efficient than plants that employ idiosyncratic productivity measures, especially if the former are more JIT‐intensive than the latter. Furthermore, plants that employ quality productivity measures are less efficient and less profitable than those that do not, especially if they use more intensive JIT practices. The latter result is consistent with JIT‐intensive plants overinvesting in quality. This study also finds that plants that invest more in buffer stock are less efficient and less profitable, especially if they use more intensive JIT practices. Despite the fact that plant profitability and efficiency are highly correlated, JIT‐intensive plants are more profitable but less efficient than plants that are not JIT‐intensive, after controlling for productivity measures, plant size, and buffer stock. This result suggests that despite wasting resources, JIT‐intensive plants are still able to generate relatively higher profits than plants that are not JIT‐intensive.     

The South Africa-U.S. Trade and the Real Exchange Rate: Asymmetric Evidence from 25 Industries

Previous studies that assessed the effects of exchange rate changes on the trade balance of South Africa assumed that the effects are symmetric. In this paper we violate that assumption and assess the asymmetric effects of the real rand-dollar rate on the trade balance of 25 2-digit industries that trade between South Africa and the U.S. We find short-run asymmetric effects in a total of 19 industries but short-run cumulative or impact asymmetric effects only on five industries. Short-run asymmetric effects lasted into long-run asymmetric effects on 14 industries. Further analysis revealed industries that will benefit from rand depreciation and those that will be hurt from rand appreciation.     

Parental income and child health in Japan

Previous studies have consistently found evidence of an income gradient in health among children in various countries, and studies in Anglo-Saxon countries have found that this gradient increases with child age. Using nationally representative individual-level data, I examine the association between child health and parental income in Japan. Japan has a child poverty rate that is similar to the rate of many countries that have been studied previously, but Japan outperforms those countries on most health indicators. I find that an income gradient exists in child health in Japan, but that it is limited to specific health measures and symptoms, and that it is weaker overall in that respect than the gradient found in other countries or among Japanese adults. Moreover, I find no evidence that the gradient increases with child age. The fact that children in low-income families have relatively modest and non-accumulating health disadvantages may contribute to the overall health of the Japanese population. Nevertheless, there is a statistically significant negative association between parental income and the incidences of asthma, hearing problems, and dental symptoms in children, implying that future efforts to improve the health of underprivileged children should focus on the prevention and control of these diseases.     

论外在货币与内在货币界定标准的不一致性

对于内在货币和外在货币的界定,经典文献提出了3个标准:发行者标准、债权标准、净财富标准,并认为这3个标准是内在一致的,即政府发行的货币既构成了持有者对政府的债权,同时又构成了社会净财富。本文研究表明,依据经典文献设定的这些判断标准,我们有时无法对外在货币和内在货币做出清晰的区分,即这3个标准并不是内在一致的。进一步研究表明,造成这3个界定标准内在不一致的原因在于没有将净财富区分为名义和实际净财富。     

Asymmetric Inventory Management and the Direction of Sales Changes*

We study manufacturing firms' asymmetric inventory investment in response to sales changes. Focusing on the costs of resource adjustment and stockout that likely differ in sales‐increasing and sales‐decreasing periods, we predict and find that inventory investment declines less during periods with sales decreases than it rises during periods with sales increases. We validate this claim by showing that managers' expectations of future demand and desire to avoid inventory stockouts are important determinants of this asymmetry. In addition, we find that asymmetric inventory investment provides useful information for predicting future sales growth, and that both managers' and analysts' sales forecasts are positively associated with the asymmetry. Lastly, we document that forecasts of future sales growth that incorporate asymmetric inventory investment are associated with lower absolute forecast errors than benchmark forecasts. Overall, we highlight the importance of inventory information in understanding managers' resource adjustment and utilization decisions that have implications for forecasting future demand. Our findings on asymmetric inventory management provide new insights to fundamental analysis based on inventory signals.     

A New Approach to the Study of Jobless Recoveries

This article is concerned with the measurement of jobless recoveries and the elements that may explain their emergence. We first introduce a measure that maps the various elements that define a jobless recovery into a single number that we label the jobless recovery depth. We then construct a database of 389 state‐level observations and study the cross‐sectional variations that emerge. We find that jobless recoveries in the United States are not a nation‐wide phenomena, but a local event confined within a cluster of states that expands slowly between 1975 and 2015. We find the state‐level evidence to be consistent with theories that link jobless recoveries to unusually long expansionary periods, less dynamic labor markets, and the advent of the great moderation. The evidence is not consistent with theories that link them to decreases in union power, increases in income inequality, or increases in health care costs.     

Two-Country Models of Monetary and Fiscal Policy: What Have We Learned? What More Can We Learn?

This paper surveys the literature that uses two-country models to analyze monetary and fiscal policy issues faced in interdependent economies. We discuss sources of structural interdependence that researchers typically include in these models. We describe many of the types of policy interactions that researchers have considered and summarize the key results that they have obtained. Finally, we briefly explain the limitations of two-country models and outline directions that this literature might usefully be extended.     

The Influence of Affect on Managers' Capital‐Budgeting Decisions*

In this paper, we propose that affective reactions are integral to accounting decision contexts like capital budgeting, and that researchers must jointly consider affect and cognition to better understand accounting decision makers' behavior. We argue that interpersonal relationships are characteristic of many capital‐budgeting contexts, and that these relationships can lead to emotional affective reactions. For example, reactions such as frustration and anger may result if a manager is treated unfairly by another individual involved in a capital project. Drawing on relevant work in neurobiology and psychology, we then predict that these affective reactions can influence managers' capital‐budgeting decisions. We report on four experimental scenarios that demonstrate the impact of affective reactions on capital‐budgeting decisions. Consistent with our predictions, the results indicate that managers consider both financial data and affective reactions when evaluating the utility of an investment alternative. Our results suggest that researchers should consider both affect and cognition to more fully understand decision making in accounting contexts.     

Forecasting Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies

This article identifies six fundamental indicators that might predict a financial crisis similar to the one that affected the emerging markets of Southeast Asia. Our empirical analysis shows that the 1997 Asian crisis could have been predicted. Probit estimation reveals that a small number of common indicators can forecast a financial crisis well. The estimation gives estimates that are robust to either cross-section or panel data. We suggest an aggregate indicator that combines all the individual indicators and calculates the optimal thresholds for the indicators. This aggregate indicator has similar predictive properties and reduces the calculations to determine the probability of crisis.