“泛珠三角”区域经济协调发展机制的构建——以欧盟区域协调为启示

经济全球化和区域经济一体化是当今世界经济发展的两大趋势,"泛珠三角"一体化将进一步发挥珠三角的区域聚集和扩散效应,提升区域竞争力,实现区域可持续发展。但目前"泛珠三角"区域一体化仍面临很多突出问题,区域整合仍是一大难题。欧盟是目前世界范围内区域经济一体化范围最大、程度最高的地区,对促进我国"泛珠三角"区域一体化发展具有重要的借鉴意义。本文分析了"泛珠三角"一体化面临的问题,对欧盟区域协调机制进行了介绍,并探讨了欧盟区域协调经验对"泛珠三角"一体化的启示。     

日本区域一体化发展中的改革与创新经验

区域一体化发展模式的形成往往离不开特定的政治、经济、文化、社会、制度背景。本研究通过对日本区域一体化发展模式的梳理,分析并总结其先进的理念和成功经验(如政府角色的转变、通过地方分权为区域管理创造新的空间、新的公共机构的设置、新制度安排带来的空间组织优化等)。试图为加快中国区域一体化发展进程提供具有参考价值的建议。     

Regional currency arrangements: insights from Europe

This paper focuses on the requirements and features of a successful monetary union on the basis of the optimum currency area theory, the “logical roadmap” for integration as proposed by Balassa as well as the economic and institutional framework of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). The analysis suggests that monetary union is contingent upon high economic integration and strong political commitment. However, political union is not an ex-ante requirement. Outside factors such as systemic shocks and globalization seem to speed up the pooling of sovereignty in the economic domain. A firm commitment to stability-oriented monetary and fiscal policies is a precondition for gaining credibility and trust within and outside a monetary union. Last, but not least, convergence criteria, fiscal rules and strong institutions are necessary to help ensure and monitor the participants’ compliance. However, the European experience is not a blueprint for regional integration that can be directly and entirely applied to other regions.     

Growth Effects of Economic Integration: Evidence from the EU Member States

After compiling an index of economic integration that accounts for global (GATT) as well as regional (European) integration of the EU member states we test for permanent and temporary growth effects in a growth accounting framework, using a panel of fifteen EU member states over the period 1950–2000. While the hypothesis of permanent growth effects is rejected, the results—though not completely robust to controlling for time-specific effects—suggest sizeable level effects: GDP per capita of the EU would be approximately one-fifth lower today if no integration had taken place since 1950. JEL no. C33, F15, F43, O52     

区域经济一体化下的中国参与

当今世界,经济全球化"蓬勃发展",区域经济一体化不断扩大,这是国际经济竞争的结果,也是各国经济乃至区域经济发展的利益所在。为适应这种形式,我国与世界、尤其是亚太地区各国(或地区)经济联系日益密切,加快了参与区域经济一体化的步伐,以应对区域经济一体化的机遇与挑战。     

An appropriate model for joint regional action in southern Africa after apartheid

Market‐based integration is not appropriate to the joint development of the southern African region; the region's political, technical and institutional immaturity requires instead loose, function‐based economic cooperation. This will also facilitate intraregional trade. Subregions in the meantime could progress to higher levels of integration: international experience has shown that successful integration is most likely when it takes place on the basis of ‘regions within regions’. Cooperative development of the subcontinent is likely to be best achieved through the ‘concentric circles’ approach to regional cooperation, in which a revised Southern African Customs Union‐Common Monetary Area forms the highly integrated core of a loose, function‐based cooperative arrangement covering the whole of southern Africa.     

Analysis of Brexit and its policy lessons for Asian integration

Galvanised by the devastation of the Second World War, European countries achieved a historically unprecedented and unparalleled level of regional economic integration in the post-war period. Intensive cooperation between the two biggest powers of continental Western Europe, France and Germany, lay at the core of Europe's seemingly relentless momentum towards integration, crystallised by the European Union (EU). The Franco-German alliance also provided strong eadership and sense of direction for the EU, which gained further traction with the admission of Central and Eastern European states after the fall of communism and the establishment of a monetary union among many of its members. However, more recently, the European integration process no longer seems unstoppable or inevitable. Most shockingly, the United Kingdom, a core EU member and the EU's third largest economy, has opted to leave the union, triggering the ‘Brexit’ process. Nor is Brexit the only sign of growing fractures within the EU. The current standoff between the EU and Italy over Italy's unwillingness to rein in its fiscal deficit is just one additional example of the loss of momentum. The central objective of the paper is to examine EU's past successes and current problems from the perspective of Asian countries, in particular ASEAN+3 countries that have achieved some measure of integration, although well below that of the EU. Both past successes and current problems hold valuable lessons for ASEAN+3 countries as they chart their own course towards regional integration. Given that the level of integration among ASEAN+3 is much lower than that of the EU, it would be unwise to draw lessons, positive or negative, without the proper context. Nevertheless, the European experience can provide valuable insights for Asia's integration process.     

制度变迁与小西北区域经济一体化研究

根据制度经济学相关理论,结合小西北地区经济实际,文章认为,制度约束是该地区经济落后的重要原因。区域经济一体化是打破制度约束、促进经济发展的良策,但地方政府的阻碍提高了交易费用,使一体化进程缓慢。文章指出,通过地方政府主动改革打破自身对经济发展的阻碍,在诱致性制度变迁基础上适度推行强制性制度变迁,小西北区域经济一体化进程有望加快。同时中央政府须尽快完善地方政府的激励机制以促进区域经济一体化发展。     

The EMU’s Twisted Foundations: How to Use and Misuse Economic Theory

The creation of common European currency is the most ambitious institutional project of the European Union for decades. The idea of launching this kind of currency has merits. However, the implementation of this idea has already led to very negative consequences, as political considerations had priority over economic ones. The article shows how theoretical approaches to common currencies have been evolving since 1960s and why misuse of economic theory provokes inevitable collapse of the European monetary union.     

关于沈阳经济区城际连接带建设的对策研究

加强区域或城市合作推动区域一体化,是当今世界经济发展的一个重要趋势及适应经济全球化、区域一体化的重要行动。大沈阳经济圈的建立是顺应时代潮流和自身实际的需要。为了实现沈阳经济区一体化发展,城际连接带建设是关键问题。因此,本文从沈阳经济区自身特点出发,深入系统地揭示了城际连接带建设存在问题,并针对问题提出了战略思路及解决办法。     

International Interdependence and Business Cycle Transmission between Turkey and the European Union

This study investigates the economic interdependence between Turkey and the European Union (EU). The main questions addressed are (i) Do Turkish and European business cycles move together? and (ii) Are European business cycles transmitted to Turkey? This investigation is important as Turkey seeks to become a full member of the EU. Trade flows, graphs, correlations, and a principal-components analysis are used to identify possible macroeconomic interdependence and transmissions. A structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model is estimated to determine the effects of European economic fluctuations on the Turkish economy. The SVAR includes GDP, consumer prices, money supplies, interest rates, and the exchange rate for Turkey and Germany. The investigation finds that Turkey's economy is only modestly influenced by European business cycles and is largely determined by domestic economic and political developments and various regional conflicts. The findings of this study have implications for Turkey's increasing economic integration into the EU.     

欧盟区域政策实施效果研究

欧盟是目前各国实现区域经济一体化的典范,但其内部的发展差距也是很大的。欧盟内部发展不平衡既存在于各成员国之间,也存在于成员国内各地区之间。各地区存在着广泛的自然资源差距,不同的区位差异,不同的文化背景和种族差别,这种差别也体现在地区经济发展水平的不平衡上。经过三十多年的实践,欧盟区域政策无论在制度基础,区域划分还是政策工具等方面都是极为成熟和完善的,借鉴欧盟区域政策成熟的运行机理,对我国制定和实施区域政策,缩小地区经济差异有十分重要的意义。     

长吉图区域旅游合作制度基础:跨界治理理论与欧盟旅游一体化经验

区域旅游合作是促进区域旅游产业协调发展的重要形式。破解跨越现有行政区划障碍与合作方经济发展不平衡这"两个难题",就必须以合作的制度基础建设为抓手,形成激励相容的参与合作机制。本文从"跨界治理"的视角,借鉴欧盟旅游一体化的跨界治理经验,研究长吉图区域旅游合作的制度基础,提出建立一个符合市场经济原则的跨界治理体系,为推动区域旅游合作提供一种新的路径参考。     

日本依托区域经济一体化主导国际经贸规则制定权的战略分析

以安倍第二次出任日本首相为分水岭,起步晚、发展迅速的日本区域经济一体化战略发生了巨大的变化:由昔日高度重视通过参与、组建区域经济一体化组织来确保日本经济稳定发展的资源供给、不断开拓的海外市场转向了依托参与、组建区域经济一体化组织来主导国际经贸规则制定权。为此,安倍政府实施了以TPP/CPTPP、RCEP、中日韩FTA等区域多边贸易协定为龙头,以日欧EPA、日美贸易协定、日美数字贸易协定、日英EPA等双边自由贸易协定为两翼的区域经济一体化战略,使日本"成为在区域层面以及双边层面创造规则的国家"。     

The age of mass migration in Latin America

The experiences of Latin American countries are not fully incorporated into current debates concerning the age of mass migration, even though 13 million Europeans migrated to the region between 1870 and 1930. This survey draws together different aspects of the Latin America immigration experience. Its main objective is to rethink the role of European migration to the region, addressing several major questions in the economics of migration: whether immigrants were positively selected from their sending countries, how immigrants assimilated into the host economies, the role of immigration policies, and the long‐run effects of immigration. Immigrants came from the economically backward areas of southern and eastern Europe, yet their adjustment to the host labour markets in Latin America seems to have been successful. The possibility of rapid social upgrading made Latin America attractive for European immigrants. Migrants were positively selected from origin according to literacy. The most revealing aspect of new research is showing the positive long‐run effects that European immigrants had in Latin American countries. The political economy of immigration policies deserves new research, particularly for Brazil and Cuba. The case of Argentina shows a more complex scenario than the classic representation of landowners constantly supporting an open‐door policy.     

论世界经济体系向板块与网络状并存结构转型

近年来,世界经济体系开始从“中心-边缘”结构向板块与网络状并存结构转型。目前,世界上形成一种新型的三极贸易体系,它不仅与过去中心地区与边缘地区之间贸易有所不同,而且是人类历史上几乎从未有过的。世界经济体系向板块与网络并存结构转型的主要原因包括:区域化与区域主义相互促进;亚非拉国家独立和其中部分国家走上适合本国国情发展道路使一些边缘地区国家实现跨越式发展;新科技革命发展和经济全球化趋势加快。世界经济体系向板块与网络并存结构转型将产生的主要影响包括:既刺激又抑制贸易保护主义;世界经济重心开始由大西洋地区向亚太地区转移;发展中国家在国际经济机制中将会有更大的发言权;促进整个国际体系的转型。     

Achieving greater financial independence for Latin America: A proposal

Financial intermediation development in Latin America illustrates the various ways in which the financial system may influence growth, efficiency, and welfare. Though the financial repression of earlier years has begun to be alleviated, much of the resulting growth of finance in Latin America has been concentrated within the countries or between them and the now-developed regions. Intraregional financial flows have been largely overlooked as an avenue for the increase of financial savings and of regional control over the mobilization and allocation of financial resources. This paper proposes the creation of new instruments designed to further the development of financial intermediation on a regional basis. A Latin American Development Bond programme is suggested which would increase the level of voluntary financial savings for regional development purposes and would reduce the present triangulation of credit flows through financial intermediaries outside of Latin America.     

国际区域一体化发展战略研究综述

区域一体化是促进经济快速发展、转变国家和地区发展方式的重要经济形式。对国际区域一体化的概念进行详细阐述,基于新经济地理学的角度对区域一体化在推动国家和地区经济发展上起到的作用以及出现的问题进行分析。同时,对区域一体化和经济全球化的关系进行论述。区域一体化是经济全球化发展的重要桥梁,对促进全球经济格局转变、经济全球化以及贸易自由化具有重要意义。最后,针对区域一体化发展形式下对中国经济发展提出建议,对经济发展过程中面临的机遇与挑战进行分析,并对中国未来的经济发展进行展望。     

On Regional Monetary Arrangements for ASEAN

This paper analyzes the extent to which ASEAN may be suitable for a regional monetary arrangement. On the economic front, we review evidence on patterns of trade, economic shocks, the extent of factor mobility, and the monetary transmission mechanism. We find that ASEAN today is less suitable for a regional monetary arrangement than the Euro area was before the Maastricht Treaty, but the differences are not large. On the political front, we analyze the prerequisites for monetary integration in light of 50 years of European experience. We conclude that a firm political commitment would be key to ensuring that an attempt to form a regional monetary arrangement is not viewed as simply another fixed exchange rate system open to speculative attack. That commitment would have to be strong enough to survive for an extended period and to support difficult decisions such as rendering the central bank independent, adhering to fiscal and exchange rate arrangements even if the policy stance conflicts with that which would be adopted on the basis of purely domestic considerations, and accepting supranational directives. These are very considerable prerequisites for success. J. Japan. Int. Econ., June 2000, 14(2), pp. 121–148. International Monetary Fund; University of California, Berkeley; and International Monetary Fund. Copyright 2000 Academic Press.Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: F33, F36, F41, F42.     

The Cuban revolution and infant mortality: A synthetic control approach

The Cuban government often boasts that the country’s infant mortality rate has been low and falling since Fidel Castro’s revolution in 1959. However, because many Latin American countries have experienced similar decreases, and because Cuba historically enjoyed lower infant mortality rates than the rest of Latin America, it is unclear whether the government should get credit. We use the fact that Cuba underwent momentous and unique political changes to consider the effect of Castro’s regime on infant mortality. We employ a synthetic control method to ascertain how much of the reduction, if any, can be attributed to the regime. We find that in the first decade of the regime, infant mortality increased relative to the counterfactual, but that—after the introduction of Soviet subsidies—infant mortality partially reverted to trend. To measure the effect of the subsidies, we run a second synthetic control test concerning the collapse of the Soviet Union and the accompanying end of the subsidies. This control suggests that the subsidies played no important role.