Relative export prices and firm size in imperfect markets

This paper contributes to the rising field in international trade and industrial organization. A vast sample of Italian micro data is used to study the behavior of relative export prices in imperfect markets. It is shown that relative export prices, the relation of prices a firm charges on export and domestic markets, are, in general, downward biased. Moreover, relative export prices depend negatively on firm size and market concentration, but positively on the average export share of the industry. This indicates that markets are segmented and firms are able to discriminate prices.     

The Japanese–U.S. trade balance and the yen: Evidence from industry data

While it is often assumed that a country's trade balance will improve in the long-run if its currency is allowed to depreciate, this is not necessarily the case for specific goods. In the short run, the opposite might even take place, as fixed quantities and rising import prices cause the trade balance to deteriorate. In this paper, we apply cointegration methodology to assess the short- and long-run impact of fluctuations in the yen–dollar real exchange rate on Japan's trade balance with the U.S. for 117 industries. We find that depreciation causes the trade balance to improve in the long-run for about one-third of Japanese industries. Most short-run effects are in the same direction, indicating a quick improvement in these industries’ trade balance, rather than a period of deterioration such as a “J-curve.”     

Vertical Trade,Exchange Rate Pass-Through,and the Exchange Rate Regime

We compare the welfare of different combinations of monetary and currency policies in an open-economy macroeconomic model that incorporates two important features of many small open economies: a high level of vertical international trade and a high degree of exchange rate pass-through. In this environment, a small economy prefers a fixed exchange rate regime over a flexible regime, while the larger economy prefers a flexible exchange rate regime. There are two main causes underlying our results. First, in the presence of sticky prices, relative prices adjust through changes in the exchange rate. Multiple stages of production and trade make it more difficult for one exchange rate to balance the whole economy by adjusting several relative prices simultaneously throughout the vertical chain of production and trade. More specifically, there is a tradeoff between delivering an efficient relative price between home and foreign final goods and delivering an efficient relative price between home and foreign intermediate goods. Second, because the small economy faces a high degree of exchange rate pass-through under a flexible regime, it suffers from a lack of efficient relative prices in vertical trade. The larger economy, however, does not face this problem because its level of exchange rate pass-through is low.     

比较优势、贸易结构与资本积累：对Mazumdar假说适用性的检验及其扩展

Mazumdar（1996）的研究认为：当一国为资本品净进口国和消费品净出口国时,资本品的进口将导致资本品价格的下降进而引致折旧率的下降,结合Solow增长模型,折旧率的下降将促使一国投资率的上升并引致资本积累。本文运用中国数据对这一假说检验后认为：该理论只适用于小国贸易模式,对于诸如中国这样的贸易大国,比较优势决定下的贸易结构完全符合Mazumdar条件,但资本品进口和消费品出口并没有对中国资本积累起到促进作用,根本原因在于这样的贸易结构往往提高了资本品一消费品的相对甚至绝对价格,并最终恶化了中国的贸易条件,使得贸易收益并不明显。本文围绕这些这些问题进行了一定层次的论证。     

中国粮食贸易新政策的经济效应分析

目前国际粮食供应趋紧，为保证国内粮食供给充足，世界各国纷纷采用取消农产品出口退税、征收出口关税等限制粮食出口的措施。中国从2007年12月始，相继出台了一系列旨在增加国内市场供应，遏制粮食价格上涨的政策。文章从粮农、消费者等角度综合研究新政策的经济效应，分析中国粮食贸易新政策效果，探求影响实施效果的问题所在并给出政策建议。     

Responding to High Commodity Prices

The recent commodity price boom resulted from rising demand in the face of a long period of low supply growth and market distortions. Structural factors are expected to return international commodity prices to relatively high levels as the global economy recovers. The Asian and Pacific economies and the region's poor will be among the most exposed to a rebound in prices. The recent response to high commodity prices can be improved upon. At the global level, the priority for Asian and Pacific governments is to seek a commitment to lessening distortions favouring bio-fuels. At the regional level, there is a need to address the use of trade restrictions on food commodities in Asia, notably rice. At a national level, the long-term neglect of the rural economy warrants correction; and efforts to expand and make social safety nets more 'market friendly' are called for.     

Climate change impacts on China's agriculture: The responses from market and trade

China's food security has been facing several challenges, which are likely to be worsened due to climate change. The purpose of this paper is to provide an evidence on the impacts of climate change on China's agriculture, with particular attention to the market and trade responses. Using projected crop yield changes for China and its' main trading partners under changing climate, we employ an agricultural partial equilibrium model (CAPSiM) and a linked national and global equilibrium model (CAPSiM-GTAP) to assess the impacts on food production, price, trade and self-sufficiency of China. Our results show that climate change will have significant effects on crop production though with large differences among crops. Under the worst climate change scenario RCP 8.5, wheat yield in China is projected to decline by 9.4% by 2050, which is the biggest yield reduction among the crops. However, the market can also respond to the climate change, as farmers can change inputs in response to reduced yields and rising prices. As a result, production losses for most crops are dampened. For example, wheat production loss under RCP8.5 reduces to only 4.3% due to market response. The adverse impacts on crop production will be further reduced after accounting for the trade response as farmers adjust production to much higher prices in the more severely affected countries. The paper concludes that we need to learn more from farmers who optimize their production decisions in response to the market and trade signals during climate change. A major policy implication is that policymakers need to mainstream the market and trade responses into national plans for climate adaptation.     

深圳市加工贸易发展与转型升级研究

改革开放以来,深圳市的加工贸易迅速发展,对深圳工业化进程和城市发展作出了巨大的贡献。深圳加工贸易正面临着经济要素和资源价格上涨、人民币升值、外贸摩擦等困难,亟需进行转型升级以适应变化了的经济环境。为此,深圳要转移低端加工贸易企业,同时严把审批关,重点引进高技术和附加值的外资企业;加强对本土加工贸易企业的技术、资金和服务的支持;改革和完善加工贸易管理制度,提高服务效率。     

DEREGULATION OF INDONESIA'S INTERREGIONAL AGRICULTURAL TRADE

In January 1998 a significant policy reform deregulated agriculture in Indonesia. It sought to eliminate distorting local monopolies, monopsonies, trade restrictions, interisland maximum shipment quotas and other barriers that effectively lowered farmgate prices. Many of these had been constructed to benefit the Soeharto family and their business cronies. The reform also sought to lower local taxes and levies targeted at agriculture. This paper demonstrates that deregulation eliminated many of the distorting taxes and levies, and dismantled many (but not all) local monopolies, monopsonies and quotas. Farmers typically now receive a higher percentage of the destination market price. Many also receive significantly higher real prices for their products, although this differs dramatically across commodities. Local governments complained about local revenues lost through the reforms. Detailed budget analyses reveal that deregulation did not substantially harm local government budgets; instead, other factors caused a decline in the local-source revenue contribution to local budgets.     

"货币幻觉"与房价虚涨实涨——质疑"房价虚涨论"

在房价不断上涨的现象面前,房价上涨源于货币幻觉的观点具有一定影响。通过对房价上涨是虚涨还是实涨的分析,从而说明房价虚涨论的片面性。实际情况是,货币幻觉对房价上涨的影响是短暂的;收入的增长幅度低于房价的上涨幅度等因素,决定了房价是实涨而非虚涨。房价虚涨论的危害在于,如果房价上涨被房价虚涨论所误导,将会影响政府抑制房价过快上涨政策措施的制定和实施,也将对居民的住房投资和消费产生负面影响。     

高校扩招、人口迁移与房价上涨

基于高校扩招背景下人口迁移的新视角对房价上涨的机理进行分析,并采用全国35个大中城市的面板数据对命题进行检验,结果表明,城市房价上涨的最主要推动力来源于迁移人口的新增住房需求,而随着高校扩招政策实施,在所有迁移人口当中,高校毕业大学生成为了其中购买能力较高、人口最多、自由迁移能力和动力最强的一个群体。他们来自全国各地,从高校毕业后却集中向一些大中城市迁移,对当地房价形成了显著的正向影响。由于受购买力等因素限制,大学生人口迁移对房价的影响存在滞后性,毕业后第3年的影响最大,之后第4、第5年影响有所缩小。文章也证实了反映居民收入的工资收入、反映货币因素的信贷量、反映人口增长的人口密度、反映投资性需求的上一期房价等变量对城市房价上涨具有显著正向影响。     

中国输出通货膨胀吗——基于贸易数据的实证检验

近年来中国的物价水平上涨较快,少数国家认为中国的出口扩张正在对外输出通货膨胀,引发全球性的通胀压力。针对这种言论指责,本文基于详实的数据资料,对中国的出口增长与进口国通胀之间的关系进行了实证检验。结果表明,中国的出口扩张不仅没有输出通胀,反而是稳定全球价格的重要力量。最后,对全球通胀的影响因素作了进一步的计量分析,发现进口国自身的宽松货币政策和国际市场中能源、原材料及运输价格的上涨才是全球通胀之源。     

是土地供应量与房地产税赋提高了房价吗

自分税制实施后,“土地财政”成为我国地方政府获取收入以支撑财政支出的主要选择,而与此同时房价也在不断上涨。中央政府从民生角度要求地方政府对房价实施调控,地方政府则主要通过调整土地供给量和房地产税税赋来施加影响。土地供应量和税赋会影响供需双方从而影响房价,反过来房价又会影响税收收入及开发商对土地的需求,进而影响社会民生。本文对我国东、中、西部地区住房价格和土地供给量、房地产税税赋之间的关系进行分析,探讨各地区的住房价格上涨原因。通过构建住房价格和土地供给量、房地产税税赋之间的PVAR模型,利用格兰杰因果检验、脉冲分析和方差分解方法来透视地方政府行为对住房价格的影响。分析结果显示,地方政府行为和房价之间存在着联动关系,但在推动住房价格上涨的原因上存在着区域差异：在东部地区,土地供应量影响房价;中部地区,二者联合推动了房价上涨。而在西部地区,房地产税税赋对房价的影响明显。在政策建议上,对地价推动房价的地区要从丰富住房来源和数量入手,而税赋影响房价的地区则要完善相关税制改革。     

房价波动对居民消费影响分析

近十年来,房地产价格不断上涨,而居民消费在国内生产总值中的占比却不升反降。这说明和大多外国学者研究得出的结究有所不同,在我国,房地产价格上涨对居民消费出支主要表现为挤出效应。这里本文对房价波动对居民消费影响进行深入分析,并提出相关有助于发挥房地产价格财富效应,从而带动国家经济增长的建议与对策。     

Dynamic Links Between Unexpected Exchange Rate Variation, Prices, and International Trade

This paper investigates dynamic interrelations between exchange rate uncertainty, international trade, and trading competitiveness in prices, using UK data. The empirical results derived from vector autoregressive (VAR) models show that a shock to exchange rate volatility negatively affects trade volumes, and such negative effects are greater than the effects on trade price levels. JEL Classification Numbers: F14, F31, F41     

Slave prices,the African slave trade,and productivity in the Caribbean, 1674–18071

We draw wide‐ranging implications about slave productivity change by making use of newly collected data on the prices paid for nearly 230,000 slaves as they arrived in the Americas from Africa between 1674 and 1807. Prices for the product that most slaves were destined to produce‐sugar‐are also available. Together the comprehensive series allow us to derive annual measures of average slave productivity and to compare productivity trends across different sectors of the Caribbean. Average productivity rose throughout the Caribbean, and the pattern of average productivity change across regions was similar, indicating an open slave market. These averages mask sharp differences in the growth of demand for slaves among regions, as reflected by their slave populations. Between 1700 and 1790 the increase in demand ranged from 90 per cent in Barbados to 600 per cent in Jamaica and Cuba; while total factor productivity overall may have doubled. The slave trade accommodated the rising demand. It also served to offset population attrition among the slaves.     

WhatDrives China＇s House Prices： Marriage or Money？

The high and rising house prices in China are not adequately accounted for the traditional explanations emphasizing demand‐driven or cost‐push factors. Recent published studies claim that gender imbalance increases competition among men in the marriage market, which has pushed Chinese, especially parents with a son, to buy houses as a signal of relative status in the marriage market; this marriage competition then causes high demand for houses and eventually leads to rising house prices in China. Empirical results in this paper, however, provide little support for this hypothesis and we find that a rise in the sex ratios for most age cohorts accounts for very small percentage variations in house price movements in China during 1998–2009. Further investigation suggests that excess demand driven by high monetary growth was a significant cause of the rising house prices in China during 1998–2009. Therefore, the impact of gender imbalance on house prices should not be exaggerated and monetary dynamics remains an important leading indicator for house price movements in China.     

Financial innovation and European housing and mortgage markets

In this paper we assess the recent history of house prices andof mortgage lending across Europe. We develop a simple economicframework to estimate the likely contributions of fundamentalfactors, such as changes in real incomes and population growth,to house price appreciation. We also try to quantify how muchof price rises might have been driven by rising expectationsof future capital gains. We estimate that this might have playeda significant role in several countries, including Spain, Sweden,Belgium, and the UK. We then consider what different types ofmortgage arrangement might become attractive in a world of higherhouse prices, analysing types of indexed mortgage that haveadvantages where prices are higher relative to incomes and wherehouse prices may be volatile and cannot be assumed to carryon rising.     

Exchange Rate Pass-through in a Small Open Economy: the Importance of the Distribution Sector

The degree of exchange rate pass-through to domestic goods prices has important implications for monetary policy in small open economies with floating exchange rates. Evidence indicates that pass-through is faster to import prices than to consumer prices. Price setting behaviour in the distribution sector is suggested as one important explanation. If distribution costs and trade margins are important price components of imported consumer goods, adjustment of import prices and consumer prices to exchange rate movements may differ. We present evidence on these issues for Norway by estimating a cointegrated VAR model for the pricing behaviour in the distribution sector, paying particular attention to exchange rate channels likely to operate through trade margins. Embedding this model into a large scale macroeconometric model of the Norwegian economy, which inter alia includes the pricing-to-market hypothesis and price-wage and wage-wage spirals between industries, we find exchange rate pass-through to be quite rapid to import prices and fairly slow to consumer prices. We show the importance of the pricing behaviour in the distribution sector in that trade margins act as cushions to exchange rate fluctuations, thereby delaying pass-through significantly to consumer prices. A forecasting exercise demonstrates that exchange rate pass-through to trade margins has not changed in the wake of the financial crises and the switch to inflation targeting. We also find significant inflationary effects of exchange rate changes even in the short run, an insight important for inflation targeting central banks.     

Monetary Union, institutions and financial market integration: Italy, 1862–1905

Years into the single currency, EMU financial markets are not fully integrated. We argue that the phenomenon can be better understood by looking at financial markets’ behavior in the wake of Italy’s monetary unification (1862). Variables such as the spread of the telegraph, trade volumes, and the diffusion of the ‘single currency’ fail to explain why it took 25 years for prices across regional stock exchanges to converge. A single Italian financial market appeared only when the State prevailed upon local vested interests by enforcing nation-wide financial market legislation.