THE DEMAND FOR FOOD IN SOUTH AFRICA1

Food consumption is an important issue in South Africa, given its relation to poverty and deprivation. With the pressing need to increase food security, understanding the determinants of the demand for food and having some estimates of the likely impact of price and income changes has become a vital task. There is, however, surprisingly little economic research on this topic and almost none in recent times. This paper provides a comprehensive empirical analysis of the demand for food in South Africa for the years 1970‐2002. It moves beyond the usual static modelling approach in using a general dynamic log‐linear demand equation and a dynamic version of the almost ideal demand system, to provide estimates of the short‐ and long‐run price and expenditure demand elasticities.     

Estimating the Impact of Transgenic Bt Cotton on West and Central Africa: A General Equilibrium Approach

West and Central Africa (WCA)’s cotton sector is experiencing rising production costs and lower yields, reversing decades of growth. Declining input use, soil fertility and inefficient chemical pest controls are contributing factors. We evaluate the potential impact of Bt cotton on WCA using a multiregion general equilibrium model and multicountry estimates of Bt-induced productivity. We find that Bt cotton raises growers’ returns, land value and welfare. Released labor from cotton is shifted to food crops hence reducing labor shortage constraints. Overall, results indicate that potential gross benefits from Bt cotton are substantial for WCA cotton sector, and that the economic costs of nonadoption are equally significant.     

The land rental of Chinese rural households and its welfare effects

By using the survey data of China’s rural households from 2003 to 2009, we identified the determinants of renting in and out the plots and estimated their impact on household welfare. First, we developed a bivariate dynamic probit model for the behaviors of renting in and out to manage the impact of the intertemporal decision-making that has been somewhat ignored by the literature; next, we developed a panel multiple endogenous treatment effect model for land rental impact to manage the self-selection problem stemming from the unobserved variables. The results show that regardless of renting in or out, both scenarios have statistically significant positive effects on the net income and balance of disposable financial assets, and renting out also has a significant positive effect on consumption expenditure.     

Optimising balance using covariate balancing propensity score: The case of South African child support grant

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we explore the use of covariate balancing propensity scores (CBPS) in estimating the impact of the South African child support grant (CSG) on the height-for-age score of benefiting children. CBPS is a different approach to estimating propensity score, under CBPS the scores are estimated such that the estimation incorporates covariate balancing condition. This approach is therefore relatively robust to misspecification of the propensity score model which makes it ideal for this case study. We show that utilising the CBPS leads to treatment effect estimate that is larger and more precisely estimated than estimates that have been reported in the literature because the method exploits the dual function of propensity score. The effect of CSG under CBPS is as large as 44% of standard deviation on average. This implies that the effect of the grant cannot be regarded as small as previously reported in the literature.     

Finding the Benefits: Estimating the Impact of The South African Child Support Grant

This paper estimates the impact of the South African Child Support Grant (CSG) on child health, nutrition and education. Data from the 2008 South African National Income Dynamics Study are used to estimate the impact of the CSG on six different outcomes measuring child well‐being. We find a positive treatment effect of the CSG on children's height‐for‐age, progress through the school system, as well as household expenditure on food items using a continuous treatment estimator developed by Hirano and Imbens. Robustness analysis using the inverse probability weighting approach by Flores and Mitnik is also implemented. Although these estimates provide some evidence of a positive impact resulting from the CSG, they are not conclusive in showing that the cash transfers are spent mainly on improving the lives of beneficiary children, as the treatment effects are quite small.     

Negative economic shocks and child schooling: Evidence from rural Malawi

This study investigates the impacts of negative economic shocks on child schooling in households of rural Malawi, one of the poorest countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Both individually-reported and community-level shocks are investigated. There is evidence that community-level shocks negatively impact the school enrolment of children. The point estimates suggest that this effect is larger when shocks and school enrolment are reported by men as compared with women. However, we cannot conclude with statistical confidence that the impact of idiosyncratic shocks is larger when reported by males than when reported by females. Similarly, although the point estimates suggest that the impact of community-level shocks on the school enrolment of children is larger than that of idiosyncratic shocks, we cannot conclude with statistical significance that the impacts of community-level and idiosyncratic shocks are different.     

Gender inequality in asset ownership and women's food security in sub-Saharan Africa

Unequal asset rights remain an important driver of gender inequality and food insecurity in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Using cross-sectional data from 31 SSA countries, this study examines the effect of gender inequality in asset ownership on women's food security in the region. The seemingly unrelated (SUR) bivariate probit framework has been adopted in analysing the data. This approach is used for addressing the possible endogeneity bias that occurs when the dependent variable and regressor are both endogenous and binary. The major finding of this study reveals that gender inequality in asset ownership increases women's risk of facing food insecurity. The aforementioned is more pronounced for women who are undereducated, live in rural areas, and suffer various forms of discrimination. It is therefore important that more egalitarian laws on asset ownership and inheritance be adopted in all SSA countries. This will significantly increase women's specific food security and thus contribute to improving inclusiveness in these countries.     

Non-income effect of land ownership and tenure on subjective wellbeing in South Africa

Aside from the very high inequality of land ownership, South Africa is characterised by a dual land tenure system comprising of private ownership and communal land ownership. Using waves 4 and 5 of the National Income Dynamics Study longitudinal data set, a set of econometric methodologies is employed to quantify the impact of ownership and tenure on an index of subjective wellbeing (SWB) constructed from eight self-reported responses covering general life satisfaction, contrast, social capital, mental health and hope for future. Controlling for the income effect and other pertinent drivers of SWB, the study highlights the non-income impact of land ownership and tenure on the subjective wellbeing of individuals. To account for possible endogeneity and self-selection, instrumental variable and matching method-based treatment effects are computed. This paper has two main findings in relation to land tenure in South Africa: (a) land owners have on average a higher index of SWB compared to those not owning land, and (b) owning land privately, compared to owning land communally, has a positive impact on subjective wellbeing within land owners. These results are consistent and statistically significant across the various estimation strategies and provide additional motivation for expediting land reforms in South Africa.     

An Analysis of Childhood Malnutrition in Rural India: Role of Gender,Income and Other Household Characteristics

There are controversies regarding the role of individual and household characteristics in childhood nutritional status measured by anthropometric indicators. Using a nutrition index based on weight-for-age of children in rural India, the paper re-examines this issue. Ordered probit estimates of nutritional status suggest female literacy improves the nutritional status of boys at the cost of girls while higher per capita current income improves that of both boys and girls, though the impact is higher for boys; however, effect of income is not robust when we use instruments of longer-run income. But more income and literacy give more ways to discriminate between boys and girls.     

土地流转非粮化形成的原因及对策

由于粮食生产的比较效益较低,农村土地在流转过程中出现了非粮化的倾向。土地非粮化虽然取得了眼前的经济效益,但从长远上看严重影响了我国粮食安全。只有采取相应的对策,才能从根本上解决土地非粮化的问题。     

What are the Determinants of Large‐scale Farming in China?

The Chinese Government has increased its focus on expanding farm scale to promote agricultural development since 2010. A series of favorable polices has been adopted to support large‐scale farming. Using a multivariate probit model and 2015 and 2016 rural household survey data, the present paper examines the factors that influence small farmers' decision to become large‐scale farmers. The empirical regression results suggest that the decision to become a large‐scale farmer is significantly influenced by household human capital, cooperative membership, marketing channels, land‐transfer contracts and government policies. However, the influence of these factors differs with respect to becoming large‐scale grain and non‐grain farmers. These results imply that policy tools should target these factors and the appropriate group of small‐scale farmers. Generally, both central and local governments should promote large‐scale farming by enhancing rural households' human capital, improving marketing channels and providing agricultural social services, as well as encouraging returning migrant workers to engage in large‐scale farming.     

Modelling the impact of the ‘fast track’ land reform policy on Zimbabwe's maize sector

Zimbabwe has recently gone through a widely criticised land reform process that is argued to be the cause of subdued agricultural production. This paper attempts to present a counterfactual picture of the maize market in Zimbabwe had land reform been managed appropriately. The counterfactual is developed through a partial equilibrium framework in order to quantify the impact of the land reform programme. This, to our knowledge, is the first attempt at applying a partial equilibrium framework to an analysis of the impact of land reform. The results of the post-2000 land reform policy simulation showed that actual total maize output was lower than what could have been produced if it was under a pre-2000 land reform system. The study validates the assertion that land reforms contributed to the contraction of output. These results suggest the need for a well planned and executed land reform process, which can still play an important role in output growth and food security.     

Impact of Tariffs on Industries and Prices in Finland during the Interwar Period

Abstract

While there has been some analysis of the role of tariffs in Finland during the interwar period, quantitative estimates of the benefits and drawbacks are quite rare. This article examines the impact of tariffs on industries value added and prices during the interwar period calculating the effective rate of protection as well as using an input-output price model. The basis for both calculations is an input-output table describing the Finnish economy in 1928. It is argued that the Finnish tariff policy was basically a contra-price-fall policy, directed merely towards agricultural and food products. The focus was on securing the domestic supply of food products. The results also suggest that tariffs did not provide sufficient protection to new industries – contradicting the infant industry argument repeated in some of the earlier studies.     

The impact of cash transfers on household welfare in Namibia

Namibia has a long history of providing a universal and non-contributory old age pension, child grants using means testing and quasi-conditionalities, and other cash transfers. Multivariate analysis presented in this paper confirms that these transfers play an important role in alleviating poverty, especially for the very poor. The poverty-reducing effects of the child grants are likely to increase further as access is being rapidly expanded. However, the impact in terms of reducing Namibia's extremely high inequality is limited. The targeting of the cash transfers towards the poorest groups takes place through two main channels. For the child grant, targeting occurs as a result of the orphan status eligibility criteria, as orphans are over-represented in lower-income households. For the universal social pension, it appears that some of the relatively less poor do not receive it even if they are eligible. Means testing of child grants appears ineffective, even without considering administrative costs.     

退耕还林工程对农户生产要素投入与收入的影响——基于长期连续跟踪大样本农户数据

利用6省区、15县市、2707个样本农户1995—2016年连续跟踪调研数据,在充分考虑相关政策和市场因素等动态变化的基础上,定量估计退耕还林工程对农户生产要素投入的影响,采用递归方程模型估计了退耕还林工程对农户收入的直接影响(退耕还林补助与放弃的退耕地种植业收益之差)和间接影响(退耕还林工程引起生产要素配置调整带来的收入变化)。结果表明:第一,农户参与退耕还林使其耕地经营面积减少25.06%,林地经营面积增加57.88%,以土地为基础的生产费用减少11.41%,非农劳动力投入增加9.99%;退耕还林工程对样本农户以土地为基础的劳动力投入和种植业集约经营未产生显著影响。第二,退耕还林工程直接增加了样本农户3.73%的以土地为基础的收入,间接增加了8.57%的以土地为基础的收入和7.85%的非农收入。第三,相对于黄河流域,退耕还林工程对长江流域样本农户收入的直接影响较大,但间接影响较小。在退耕还林工程后续政策设计中,需充分重视退耕还林工程对农户生产要素投入和收入的影响及其路径,强化因地制宜的理念。     

The effect of internet usage on perceptions of social fairness: Evidence from rural China

Using Chinese Social Survey data for 6205 geographically distributed rural households, this paper assesses the impact of Internet usage on social fairness perceptions (SFPs) among Chinese farmers. To address the potential selection bias associated with voluntary Internet usage, the analysis employs an endogenous ordered probit model whose results suggest that, in general, Internet usage has a statistically significant and negative impact on farmer SFPs. Nonetheless, an additional disaggregated analysis reveals that this impact is heterogeneous among different age groups and geographic regions, as well as between male and female household heads.     

The dis-incentive effects of food aid and agricultural policies on local land allocation in developing countries: The case of Malawi

Food aid and other agricultural policies can create incentives/disincentives in local agricultural production. This paper provides empirical evidence on the disincentive effects of both food aid and some agricultural policies in Malawi. In contrast to previous studies, this paper analyses the impact of food aid on the proportion of land allocated to cereal crops and the interplay of both food aid and other agricultural policies in creating disincentive effects. Data were analysed using the logit transformation regression. It was found that, in addition to the disincentive effects of food aid, agricultural policies including price controls and sustained reliance on imported cereals were also undermining incentives to sustain local agricultural production. Therefore, both food aid and agricultural price policies need to be aligned to farmers' incentives to optimcally allocate land to food production.     

Changes in Chinese Competitiveness in Major Food Products: Implications for WTO Membership

Chinese entry to the WTO in December 2001 marks a new phase in agricultural trade, both nationally and globally. After a context review of Chinese agriculture and WTO-related policy issues, this paper first uses a Balassa index approach to examine China's relative competitiveness in some major food products over the period since 1985, followed by an analysis of price-cost ratios and production cost structures for these products. It is found that China has revealed comparative advantages in meat products but disadvantages in cereals. With limited land resources, its production and trade competitiveness has declined despite rapid substitution of capital for labour, due to a marked rise in relative labour price in agriculture. In the long run, it is expected that WTO membership will boost Chinese agricultural trade, but its impact on competitiveness will probably depend more on production costs, and will differ between crops and animal products.     

社会认同、环境认知与农户绿色生产行为

基于江西省微观农户调查数据，用有序Probit模型考察社会认同对农户绿色生产行为采纳的影响，检验环境认知在二者间的中介效应及异质性分析。结果表明：社会认同对农户绿色生产行为采纳程度有显著正向影响；环境认知在社会认同对农户绿色生产行为采纳程度具有部分中介效应；异质性分析发现，环境认知对老年组和男性农户具有显著影响，而对非老年组和女性农户未起到显著影响。社会认同对老年组农户更具有显著影响。据此提出培育农户环境认知、激发农户主体意识、加强政策引导宣传等建议。     

Capitalization of local government grants on land values: Evidence from Tokyo metropolitan area,Japan

This study investigates the capitalization effect of intergovernmental fiscal transfers from central to local governments on land prices. Using a drop in the size number of fiscal transfers following fiscal reform in the early 2000 s, this study examines the extent to which unconditional fiscal transfers to municipalities in the Tokyo metropolitan area are attributed to land prices. The result shows that the decline in the transfer has decreased the land prices in the municipalities. Furthermore, reducing one unit in the per capita grant reduced the value of housing area per capita by one or more units, even if the real discount rate was assumed to be as low as 2%. Therefore, the fiscal transfer reform more negatively affects the benefits of residing in a municipality in the area than the reduction amount in the transfer.