Poor health as a precursor to consumer debt distress in South Africa

While it is well documented that severe consumer indebtedness can lead to mental and physical health problems including unhealthy coping mechanisms, the pathways from poor health to financial strain is still an understudied area. Using the National Income Dynamics Study (NIDS) data, this study examines the relationship between poor health and debt distress while controlling for the possible endogeneity between these two conditions and some health-related variables. The results indicate that poor health significantly increases the probability of financial strain. Insofar as poor health is associated with catastrophic healthcare costs and income deprivation, for instance through inability to work, other factors affecting health such as socioeconomic status and insurance might shape the contours of consumers’ debt performances in the face of health risk. Ultimately, health may be creating a vicious circle in which poor health affects the capacity to earn income and accumulate assets, which limits access to quality healthcare.     

金融危机下家庭消费心理意识对扩大内需的影响

金融危机以来,各国纷纷采取宽松的财政政策来刺激经济,加之欧洲债券危机的影响,我国经济面临非常严峻的考验。我国近14亿居民消费群,转变家庭的消费意识对于扩大内需而言的意义是不言而喻的。本文通过对于我国居民消费潜力的分析,研究我国家庭消费行为以及影响消费者心理意识的因素,浅谈金融危机下家庭消费心理意识对扩大内需的影响？     

中国国债研究综述

自从1981年我国恢复国债发行以来,国债市场在摸索中不断发展和完善,国债市场在金融市场中的地位日益重要,学术界对国债发行方式、国债适度规模、国债流动性等方面的讨论也日益增多。本文主要对国债发行、国债规模、国债流动性、国债收益率、国债风险、国债回购等6个问题进行研究的文献进行综述。     

风险管理理论综述

随着世界金融体系的完善和发展,金融风险管理的重要性也逐渐凸现。金融风险管理理论从20世纪30年代开始萌芽,80年代末开始蓬勃发展。本文对风险管理理论发展各阶段的重要理论进行了梳理揭示了金融风险管理理论逐渐发展和成熟的过程。     

珠三角地区家电产业转型升级路径研究

经过30多年的发展,我国家用电器行业已成为具有较强国际竞争力的产业之一。但由于全球金融危机的频繁爆发,其国际市场需求疲软。为此,家电行业转型升级很有必要。本文首先基于全球价值链、产品空间结构等产业升级理论,指出改革开放前30年我国家电行业,通过实施制度创新、人力资源以及技术创新三大升级战略,遵循一条线性升级路径(OEA→OEM→ODM→OBM);其次,细分和拓展"微笑曲线",从理论上得出我国家电行业二次升级有必要以科技创新为动力,沿着家电业技术距离较短的路径升级。     

洪灾风险及其可保性拓展

洪灾风险事件是小概率大损失的事件，从洪灾风险的特点看，其承保风险很大。按照建立在风险组合理论基础上的传统可保条件，洪灾风险同其他巨灾风险一样不具有可保性。随着承保技术及保险经营管理技术的进步，洪灾风险等巨灾风险具有了一定的可保性。世界上许多国家都视洪灾保险为特殊形式的保险．而给予各种政策支持，使其成为“政策性保险”。本文最后提出了拓展洪灾风险的可保性的途径。     

接受赤道原则 促进金融和谐

赤道原则是国际银行界首次制订和认可的全球项目融资的环境与社会标准。中国银行界接受赤道原则有利于国内银行加强全面风险管理和金融风险评级,有利于国内银行获得或保持良好声誉,保护或增加市场份额,有利于国内银行业设立行业标准,平整游戏场地,有利于银行界形成良性循环,促进可持续发展,也有利于国内银行融入金融全球化的浪潮中,参与国际金融规则的制订和修改,从而最终促进金融的和谐发展。     

略论发展我国天气衍生产品市场

作为金融工程创新的结晶,天气衍生产品在防范由非灾难性天气因素产生的风险方面显示了巨大的活力和创造性。在我国发展天气风险市场,将有利于保障我国重要行业的发展,推动金融市场和资本市场的繁荣,提高我国在国际市场的竞争力。     

国际金融话语权及中国方略

结合话语和话语权的相关理论,作者解读了国际金融话语权所涉及的谁对谁说、说什么和如何说等层面的内涵意义,分析了国家中心主义、建构主义、国际金融属性、国际金融利益指涉性、国际话语支配性、国际货币权力相关性的六大本质特征。其中,谁对谁说主要指谁是话语实施者、谁是话语对象以及国际金融"现实"建构权归谁所有的问题;说什么包括了游戏规则的制定权、国际身份的定义权、话题选择权和事务的主导权等国际金融话语的主要内容;如何说则关系到话语平台和话语效果等问题。在现有国际金融话语权的格局中,存在霸权-非霸权的话语分布结构,其功能包括维护国际金融秩序与稳定的积极作用和制造发展幻觉、用假象替代真实、安排等级、树立国际权威等四个方面的消极作用。作者认为,由于国际金融话语霸权在可预见的未来还将继续保持单极,中国应该理性选择沟通、交流与对话的方式,从强化话语权意识、构建本土化金融理论、增加国际金融组织投票权、主动设置国际金融议题、推进人民币国际化以及争夺国际金融定价权等六个方面来有效提升自己的国际金融话语权。     

赤道原则-国际金融公司政策的延伸

赤道原则是国际项目融资的环境与社会的最低行业标准。它的制订与执行由国际金融公司主导,它的核心内容基本上援引了国际金融公司的政策和指南,国际金融公司环境与社会政策的评审结果关乎着赤道原则的命运。国际金融公司也帮助赤道银行培训赤道原则专家,国际金融公司的政策与实践直接影响赤道原则的性质。它把自己定位为开发性金融规则的提倡者,是由于现实因素的推动,客观上提高了银行的公众形象,也提高了国际金融公司自身的形象。     

大珠三角金融产业圈的发展现状、问题与对策

大珠三角金融产业圈具有金融合作的紧密性不断加强、合作内容和层次不断提高,香港核心有秩序金融空间扩散、金融圈从小到大的扩展路径正在形成等特点。同时,存在金融协调机制不健全、金融合作层次不高、体制磨擦性较大,银行业务合作面临诸多障碍等问题。主在对策:建立多层次金融合作机制,加快金融产业一体化,加强金融业务的全面合作,穗深港三地的定位上应各有侧重分工协作,推动金融人才交流等。     

Time variation paths of factors affecting financial institutions and stock returns

This study finds evidence that three risk factors relating to the stock market, bond market, and real estate market are important in explaining the risk premiums included in financial institutions and bank stock returns. Stock returns for insurance companies are not sensitive to changes in the bond market. The Flexible Least Squares (FLS) results indicate that the stock market factor has the most important and stable impact on risk premiums for financial institutions, banks, and insurance companies. The bond market is the primary source of instability in stock returns for these three groups of stocks. This research adds further support for using market discipline, especially as it relates to equity returns to enhance the prudential regulation of the financial sector.     

金融控股公司内控机制的法律监管研究

为了应对国际竞争,我国现在已经出现了大量的金融控股公司,其业务的多元化增强了金融机构的竞争力,带来了诱人的利润,但是同时也给金融市场带来了高度的风险。这就对金融监管者提出了更高的要求,如何有效防范这些金融风险,对金融控股公司进行监管,发挥金融控股公司的积极性,维护金融秩序的稳定,是立法者必须考虑的问题,也是亟需解决的问题。本文着重从内控机制方面进行论述,建议监管者从这个角度加强对金融控股公司的监管。     

中国国债利率期限结构突变与动因分析——基于无套利宏观金融模型的视角

已有研究表明中国宏观经济和金融市场近20年来表现出区制转换和非线性特征,在此背景下国债市场是否也存在结构性变化,将关系到利率模型的稳定性和经济政策的效果。文章基于未知间断点的结构突变方法实证检验2002年到2015年间中国国债利率期限结构,并通过把新凯恩斯动态一般均衡框架嵌入仿射无套利期限结构模型中,解释突变的宏观动因。结果认为,受2005年金融市场一系列重大改革的累积和联动影响,中国国债利率期限结构于2005年11月发生了显著的结构变化;间断后由于市场风险水平降低,货币政策波动性减小,所以利率偏离预期假说的程度锐减;与货币政策相关的斜率因子风险价格的减小是突变的关键动因。     

我国发行高等教育债券的几点思考

随着我国高等学校规模的不断扩大,仅靠现有财政拨款和银行信贷资金为主的融资方式显然是不足的。一方面,过于单一的融资渠道不足以补充教育经费的投入不足且风险过高。另一方面,金融体系的功能无非是在资金的富裕方和资金的短缺方之间提供中介功能。由于不同资金的供给方和需求方的风险偏好存在差异,因而就决定了融资的渠道也应当是多元化的。事实上,通过金融体系实现高等学校的融资需求绝不止银行信贷资金一个内容。如果能够开辟各类新型的教育融资方式,无疑对高校获得资金和分散风险具有帮助。文章旨在从研究发行高等教育债券融资方式的意义入手,进一步提出完善我国现有高等教育债券融资方式．以期对实现高等教育经费来源多元化提供一定的参考。     

中国金融市场风险与宏观经济景气之间的关联动态研究

为了揭示中国金融体系与宏观经济运行的系列结构性变化及其关联动态,文章分别基于货币流动性宽松程度、剩余收益模型以及银行资产负债表,对中国货币市场、股票市场与银行体系的风险进行了测度和评估;并在分析上述三个金融子市场风险变动规律及其传递机制的基础上,运用时变参数向量自回归模型实证检验了各金融市场风险与宏观经济景气之间的关联动态。研究发现:在金融危机爆发前后,不同金融市场风险之间的传递关系发生了重要转变,并且与宏观经济景气变动之间的交互影响也存在显著的阶段性差异,呈现出"良性循环"与"恶性螺旋"的非对称性切换。这些研究为中国新时期积极转变宏观经济调控政策决策机制、创新宏观经济调控与金融监管模式,实现宏观经济与金融体系的双重稳定提供了有益的经验依据与政策启示。     

Sovereign Spreads and Contagion Risks in Asia

In the aftermath of the recent global financial turmoil, sovereign spreads have exhibited a significant degree of volatility. This paper explores how much of these movements in the spreads of Asian economies reflected shifts in global risk aversion or country‐specific risks, directly from worsening fundamentals, or indirectly from spillovers originating in other sovereigns, or risks and uncertainty surrounding their exchange rates. This analysis finds that earlier in the crisis, the increase in market‐implied contagion led to an increase of sovereign bond yields relative to the swaps. Higher‐rated sovereign bonds in Asia benefited from the flight to quality that accompanied the increase in global risk aversion during this period. Once the systemic risks in the financial sectors worldwide were contained, the risk of sovereign spillovers eased, which, together with a fall in perceived currency‐related risks, led to a fall in sovereign bond yields relative to swaps yields across the board. Comparing the situation to that of Europe, the present paper concludes that the debt crisis in the euro area has not affected the perception of sovereign risks of Asian economies. In fact, a fall in exchange rate and spillover risks, combined with stronger fundamentals, have led to a continued normalization of Asian sovereign spreads since the height of the financial crisis.     

从银行管理体制的完善谈金融风险的防范

防范和化解金融风险、维护金融稳定是实现国民经济全面、协调、可持续发展的需要。文章从金融体系、金融机构、政府职能、外资银行的进入等几个方面对产生金融风险的因素进行了分析,进而从完善银行管理体制的角度对金融风险的防范措施进行了相应的思考与探讨。     

The Effect of Limited Liability on the Informativeness of Earnings: Evidence from the Stock and Bond Markets*

Previous empirical research on the informativeness of earnings has focused on stockholders, and has not examined differences in earnings' informativeness for stockholders and bondholders. Because stockholders are residual claimants and bondholders are fixed claimants, the informativeness of earnings should differ for these two types of investors. When a firm's default risk is low, changes in its financial condition should be of limited relevance to bondholders, but should be relevant to stockholders. In contrast, as the likelihood of financial distress increases, stockholders' limited liability allows them to abandon the firm to the bondholders (Fischer and Verrecchia 1997). Accordingly, as a firm's default risk increases, changes in its financial condition should be increasingly important to bondholders and less important to shareholders. Because earnings provide information on firm value, the stock return-earnings association should decrease as the firm's financial strength declines, while the bond return-earnings association should increase. We use two measures of a firm's financial strength: the firm's bond rating and its reporting of a loss. Consistent with our hypotheses, we find that the association between stock returns and changes in annual earnings decreases as bond ratings decline, while the association between bond returns and changes in annual earnings increases. These results suggest that as the company's financial condition deteriorates, earnings become less relevant for stock valuation and more relevant for bond valuation. When we partition firms based on their loss status, we find a stronger association between stock returns and annual earnings changes for firms with positive earnings (profit firms) than for firms with losses, consistent with earlier studies. In contrast, we find that the association between bond returns and earnings changes is greater for loss firms than for profit firms. These results suggest that losses reduce the informativeness of earnings for stockholders but increase informativeness for bondholders, suggesting that investors view losses as indicating increased credit risk.     

金融危机对我国经济的影响及对策

金融危机对我国的金融安全和经济增长造成了一定的影响。中国高额的外汇储备和居民储蓄存款虽然能够帮助中国的金融机构渡过金融危机。但是我国的外汇储备和大量的金融资产遭到贬值或资产损失的风险。中国的经济增长、投资、就业和物价水平等实体经济也受到金融危机的冲击。扩大内需、促进就业和经济增长,化解金融危机的影响,是我国目前面临的当务之急。