基于TPP的亚太经济一体化前景分析及中国的对策

作为亚太地区新的区域合作政策之一的TPP被看作是美国实现重返亚洲的有力工具,一直以来受到美国的关注和力推,必然对已经存在多种经济合作形式的亚太区域经济一体化进程产生重要的影响。文章首先梳理亚太区域经济一体化进程,提出TPP的由来和发展,并对TPP能否实现多边性区域主义进行剖析,以此作为预测亚太区域经济一体化前景的依据,并为中国进一步参与区域经济一体化提供对策建议。     

东盟与东亚经济合作

20世纪90年代以来，东亚出现新地区主义发展趋势，其基本思想是在加强南北合作的基础上，在本地区建立一个开放的、多层次、有大国参与的多边自由贸易区，同时加强双边合作。在此背景下，东盟不断调整其区域经济一体化战略，重视开放的、发展的地区主义，并在推动东亚区域合作进程中发挥了重要作用。     

Multilateralism,Regionalism, Bilateral and Crossregional Free Trade Arrangements: All Paved with Good Intentions for ASEAN?

Current initiatives in Asia and Asia Pacific regionalism are responses to regionalism happening elsewhere in the context of globalization, information communication technology and knowledge-based economy. The conclusion is that many economies are 'having it both ways' in multilateralism under World Trade Organization (WTO) and new regionalism. The argument is that the 'first best' theory of free trade under multilateralism and WTO have fallen short. A 'second best' theory of new regionalism has been acknowledged by the Doha ministerial declaration to complement and supplement WTO. Both Asia challenged Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) and the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) are challenged by ASEAN Plus Three (APT), which originated from the Asian crisis in the failed Asian Monetary Fund (AMF).
  Singapore has responded to these challenges in bilateral trading agreements, driven by its idiosyncratic features of a small, city–state economy and frustrated by laggard ASEAN. Increasingly, there is a divergence in macroeconomic policy between Singapore and ASEAN in terms of openness and competition. The dilemma in Singapore's strategy of bilateral trading agreements and foreign economic trade policy is precisely this divergence in macroeconomic philosophy and policy. The pressure on ASEAN is no less from APT, China and regionalism elsewhere than from Singapore. However, the present paper concedes that bilateral and crossregional trading arrangements are still second best, and that broader regionalism and multilateralism are still superior. With so many regional trading arrangements and emerging competition policy there may be rules of origin or 'spaghetti bowl' effects for Singapore. In 'realpolitiks' and real political economy, the balancing of gains and benefits is not easy.     

China, Asia, and the World Economy： The Implications of an Emerging Asian Core and Periphery

I. IntroductionThe effect of China’s rapid growth on other Asian economies is felt most directly through itsimpact on international trade and foreign investment. However, not only is the magnitude of this impact uncertain, even its direction is disputed. Some authors emphasize that China’s emergence as an economic power is applying intense competitive pressure to its neighbors. China’s immense reserves of cheap labor enable it to out-compete neighboring economies in the production of low-…     

"断裂的全球化"与南亚区域合作

全球化是一个复杂的自相矛盾的进程,"断裂的全球化"是区域化的成因。以"断裂的全球化"思维模式对南亚区域合作进行的分析发现,南亚合作对实现经济和福利的跨越式增长存在很大机会,而建立冲突解决机制、实行公平贸易、开展能源合作、整合劳动力市场等措施有助于南亚推动迈向合作的进程。     

Asian trade: long‐term patterns and key policy issues

Fragmentation‐based specialisation has become an integral part of the economic landscape of East Asia. Dependence on this new form of international specialisation is proportionately larger in East Asia, in particular in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, than in North America and Europe. In this regard, an important recent development has been the rapid integration of China into regional production networks. This development is a counterpoint to the popular belief that China's global integration would crowd out other countries' opportunities for international specialisation. The rise of product fragmentation has strengthened the case for a global, rather than a regional, approach to trade and investment policymaking. Given the global orientation of the region's economies, we question whether there would be a significant benefit from current efforts to promote regional cooperation, unless the principle of ‘open regionalism’ is recognised. With both the Doha Round and APEC floundering, this is one of the major multilateral policy challenges of our time.     

发展中国家地区主义的政治经济学——以南太平洋地区为例

自20世纪60年代起,地区主义在发展中国家广泛兴起。在长期的地区主义实践中,发展中国家逐步形成了多层次、开放性、经济和安全优先的地区主义发展路径,并且正朝着综合性、多功能、外向型的方向发展。这一路径的形成主要取决于发展中国家所拥有的地区秩序的双层结构。从地区内部看,对于发展中国家而言,地区主义的发展有其特有的战略考虑。在政治上,通过对话与协商维护国家独立与主权平等,维护国内稳定和地区安全;在经济上,通过贸易、金融、货币等政策的协调,来化解内部经济矛盾与冲击。从对外联系看,尽管很多时候外部大国介入地区事务能够增进地区利益,但由于在客观上存在的对外不对称依赖关系,这种介入很可能会成为组建排他性的地区政治经济集团的制约因素。总之,由于地区内的优先政治经济考虑以及对地区外力量的借重与依赖,在可以预见的未来,发展中国家地区主义难以发展成为欧洲式的政治经济联盟。     

地区主义与东盟的制度变迁相关性分析

地区主义的发展推动着东盟自身的制度构建，东盟制度变迁的动力来源于地区经济合作和内部政治、经济整合的压力。东盟扩大、经济一体化、冲突的管理与解决、地区架构之形成，都反映了地区主义与制度变迁的深刻相关性。这种相关性必将影响到亚太地区的整合与国际关系。     

Economic integration in northeast Asia: Preconditions and possible trajectories

When in November 2001, the leaders of the Southeast Asian and Northeast Asian states met for the “ASEAN (Association of South East Asian Nations) plus three (China, Japan and Korea),” President Kim Dae‐Jung of South Korea proposed the exploration for an East Asian Free Trade Area (EAFTA) and thereby opened a new chapter of East Asian integration. The special Northeast Asian perspective on regional co‐operation became clear by the simultaneous decision to hold annual meetings of finance and trade ministers of China, Japan and Korea. At the same time, bilateral agreements, like a free trade area between Japan and Singapore, the tentative large free trade area between ASEAN and China and the work‐in‐progress on a Korean‐Japanese Free Trade Area, show the devotion and sometimes even obsession of current policy‐making with reaching regional trade agreements. Regional integration, it seems, is finally on the Northeast Asian agenda. In this paper, the preconditions and perspectives of economic integration in Northeast Asia will be explored. Since economic integration is in various ways linked to political factors, the second section discusses the geo‐political situation of Northeast Asia today. The third section deals with the economic perspectives of different forms of trade integration, followed by an analysis of various attempts for greater macro‐economic and financial co‐operation and a short conclusion.     

Can East Asia rise again?

In recent times, the economies of East Asia have been confronted by two major economic recessions, the first caused by the East Asian financial crisis, and the second by the slump in the ‘new economy.’ The causes of these two recessions, their scope and their influences differ significantly and during these periods of economic downturn the economies affected have adopted various monetary policies aimed at reducing interest rates and tax rates, and pursuing the expansion of government expenditure. However, these policies have obviously not yet been as effective as expected.This paper sets out to determine those factors affecting the possibility of East Asia rising again from the recent economic slump, a slump which has stemmed from excessive investment in the electronics and information industries. The paper begins with an overview of the East Asian economy, with particular reference to the recent serious decline following the steady recovery from the East Asian financial crisis and a review of the measures taken to counter it. Proposals are then made with regard to a number of lessons to be learned from the recent slump.There are three major issues involved in the question of whether East Asia can rise again from the current economic slump. First of all, many of the economies of East Asia have tried their utmost to upgrade their industrial structures from labor- to technology-intensive, or towards a knowledge-based economy and, to some extent, have actually been quite successful in achieving their goals. Secondly, almost all of the East Asian economies have paid particular attention to educational development, with many families having sent their children to foreign countries to receive advanced education in the hope that when they return they can make a substantial contribution to the progress of their home economies—examples of this trend are provided by Taiwan and India. Thirdly, there are abundant natural resources in East Asia along with rich sources of manpower with a hard-working spirit; these two factors can create comparative advantages and strengthen the competitiveness of these economies.In view of the recent developments towards regionalism, it is imperative for the economies of East Asia to form an East Asian Community in the near future, and many of the economies in this region are currently endeavoring to realize this vision, despite many obstacles still facing East Asia which will ultimately need to be overcome.     

The economics of ASEM: Success formula for Europe and Asia

The creation of ASEM raises a basic question on the co‐existence of two seemingly contradictory phenomena: the strengthening of multilateralism and the deepening of regionalism. In light of such view, ASEM provides an important momentum in restructuring the world economy. This paper discusses the relationship between ASEM and regionalism in the new world economic order. It attempts to find basic principles and proper approaches to turn ASEM into a successful framework for economic cooperation between Europe and Asia.     

浅析多边化区域主义在亚太区域经济一体化中的影响

多边化区域主义在当前世界经济中已经初显峥嵘,它是新区域主义在当前国际经济环境下的调整与发展。本文分析了多边化区域主义的产生动因和表现形式,并就多边化区域主义对亚太区域经济一体化的影响和其发展趋势进行了深入研究,结论是多边化区域主义符合亚太经济合作的发展趋势,但其前景取决于大国利益的博弈。作为亚太经济一体化的主要利益攸关方,中国须尽早制定对策以应对亚太多边化区域主义的发展。     

东亚经济一体化可行性的分析

在全球化和区域化不断发展的国际政治经济环境下,欧盟和北美自由贸易区向东亚各国的一体化提供了示范效应,同时也提出了迫切的要求。因此,要实现东亚经济的长期发展,东亚经济的一体化已经成为关键因素。本文通过对东亚经济一体化可行性的分析,为以后的发展提出了思路,指出了在以后发展中要着重克服的问题。     

East and South Asia: Managing Difficult Bilateral Relations and Regional Integration Globally

This paper analyzes the economic integration of the East and South Asian economies in the global economy. East Asian economies are shown to be achieving much more of their potential trade than South Asian economies, both in terms of intra‐regional trade and in trade with the rest of the world. Examination of the China–Japan, India–Pakistan and Taiwan–mainland China bilateral relationships shows that integration of these economies into the global economy has allowed economic relations to dominate and constrain difficult bilateral political relations in East Asia while in South Asia adverse political relations have hampered development of bilateral economic relationships.     

中国在东亚经济一体化进程中的战略选择

20世纪90年代以来,世界经济的发展出现了新的趋势:区域经济一体化的发展较为迅猛。资源突破国界限制在世界范围内来实现优化配置,各国、各地区经济的相互依存程度不断提高。近些年来,东亚经济合作有了一定的发展,但是和欧盟及北美自由贸易区比起来,东亚经济一体化的发展明显落后。本文以区域经济一体化理论为基础,对中国在东亚经济一体化进程中的战略进行了研究,指出了中国在东亚经济一体化进程中战略存在的问题,并对中国的一体化战略提出了几点建议。     

Europe and East Asia in the context of regionalization: Theory and economic policy

Much academic interest has recently centered on economic regionalism as a framework of international economic relations. The European Community (EC) has been a focal point. Other regional economic organizations (APEC, NAFTA), have been subjects of debate.This paper discusses three principal arguments: (1) the “natural”/“optimal” regional grouping, (2) transaction cost advantage in a regional model, and (3) the balancing of intraregional and extra-regional economies. Indeed, the argument is most certainly for an international regime of an “open,” not a “fortress” economic regionalism.This paper examines the subject relative to economic theory and policy.     

Regional free-trade areas: sorting out the tangled spaghetti

As a result of the difficulties in negotiating the liberalizationof trade globally, countries seek liberalization among smallergroups. We describe open regionalism as one such attempt todo this, and show why after a decade of success it ran intothe ground as a strategy. The formation of discriminatory regionalfree-trade areas (FTAs) is sometimes seen as another responseto this problem. This paper point outs what is wrong with thisresponse—that it distorts trade patterns and thereby setsup an unpleasant prisoner's dilemma—and suggests someways forward. We propose the formation of open trading arrangements(OTAs) and the establishment of a Trade Transparency Commissionin each country that is participating in an OTA. We also suggestglobal regulation of trade diversions caused by all FTAs, whetherOTAs or not. Ultimately, the return to health of the globaltrading system will require expanded understanding of the basicinsight of economics, that liberalization enhances the welfareof citizens of the liberalizing country.     

东亚区域合作新态势及中国的战略调整

1997年东南亚金融危机使东亚各国认识到域内合作的重要性,东亚区域合作蓬勃发展。十年之后的美国次贷危机演变成全球金融危机,客观上推动东亚区域合作呈现出了一些新态势。与此同时,鉴于中国及东亚各国当前面临的发展问题,东亚区域合作应在遵循东盟主导的基础上开拓互联互通务实合作,增强区域凝聚力和内生发展动力,提升合作的机制化水平,实现区域内经济的可持续发展。     

建立东亚共同体的利弊条件分析

长期以来东亚地区经济一体化进程一直落后于其他地区,随着东亚地区合作的深入发展,建立东亚共同体的构想越来越受到关注。本文介绍了东亚共同体概念的产生和发展,指出了目前建立东亚共同体的有利条件。但迄今为止,东亚共同体还只是一个初步构想,它在逐步形成的过程中又必然面临着诸多挑战。     

A Comparative Evaluation and Prognosis of Asia Pacific Bilateral and Regional Trade Arrangements

This paper provides an evaluation of the growing regional and bilateral trade arrangements in Asia and discusses some plausible scenarios for Asian regionalism. Changes in international relations, information communications technology, the knowledge-based economy and deregulation have altered trade modalities in the international political economy. The 'new regionalism' activities in Asia appear to be a response to these international developments and to be complementary to WTO-managed trade liberalisation.