当今经济条件下对FDI在中国的思考

在过去经济改革的30年里,中国急需资金和技术,FDI对中国经济发展做出了巨大贡献。但随着中国经济条件的改变,FDI对中国经济的影响作用慢慢在减弱,因此,在今后的FDI引进中不能继续按原来的方针政策,而要在环保、技术等方面给予准入的限制,从而提高进入我国的FDI质量。     

中国与东南亚国家吸收FDI相互影响关系的实证研究

中国与东南亚国家在吸收FDI方面是否存在着竞争关系是东南亚国家普遍关注的一个问题,本文运用格兰杰因果检验及协整方法对中国与东南亚国家吸收FDI之间的相互影响关系进行了实证研究,结果表明,中国吸收FDI对东南亚国家吸收FDI负面影响较小,中国吸收FDI的激增在一定程度上还促进了部分国家的FDI流入。     

中国FDI流入的决定因素：基于国际面板数据的实证研究

本文基于1992—2005年我国14个FDI主要来源国和地区的数据分析了FDI流入我国的原因。无论是在所有国家样本中还是在欧关发达国家样本中,资本来源国的市场规模和双边贸易都是重要的影响因素。而资本来源国相对劳动成本的提高会增加亚洲国家对我国的直接投资,资本来源国贷款成本的相对降低会增加欧美发达国家对我国的直接投资。     

劳动力供给、生产率与外商直接投资工资外溢效应

本文利用中国1999-2007年441个四位码工业行业数据,考察外商直接投资在产业内部和产业之间,通过直接影响劳动力市场供给方式和间接生产率外溢方式对中国内资行业的工资外溢效应。研究结果表明:(1)外商直接投资(FDI)通过直接和间接方式对中国内资行业工资在产业内部和产业之间都产生了显著的正向外溢效应;(2)国有行业比重提高会显著促进FDI通过劳动力供给方式对内资行业产生工资外溢效应,但同样会显著阻碍FDI通过间接的生产率外溢方式对内资行业产生工资外溢效应;(3)FDI对内资劳动密集型行业的工资外溢效应显著高于资本密集型行业,FDI进入显著缩小了中国不同劳动生产率工业部门的工资收入差距。     

中国FDI空间集聚与趋势面

改革开放以来,我国FDI的空间分布呈现出明显的集聚特征,FDI空间集聚对区域发展差距扩大产生重要影响。究竟空间因素多大程度上能解释FDI的空间分布?本文应用空间计量经济学与趋势面分析相结合方法,以601个县级以上城市人均FDI和空间位置坐标数据研究了FDI的空间集聚与趋势面。研究发现,空间因素对FDI集聚分布的相关性极其显著。从空间因素看,中国人均FDI分布可分成5个集聚区域,北部和西南地区难以吸引FDI入驻。这意味着,更有效地促进FDI北上,尤其是西进应当作为今后较长时期内我国FDI政策的导向。     

Location choice in low-income countries: Evidence from Japanese investments in East Asia

Unlike most existing studies, this paper examines the location choices of multinational enterprises (MNEs) in low-income countries. Specifically, we investigate the location choices of Japanese MNEs among East Asian developing countries by estimating a four-stage nested logit model and a mixed logit model at the province level. Our findings are as follows. First, Japanese MNEs consider Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, and Vietnam to be host countries different from China and the forerunners of ASEAN. In other words, for Japanese investors, ASEAN forerunners are countries replaceable by China. Second, the mechanics of vertical FDI are more likely to appear in FDIs in low-income countries. For example, rather than the market size of the host country, tariff rates on products from investing countries are more crucial location elements.     

Reviving Foreign Direct Investments in Southern Africa: Constraints and Policies

Abstract: The objective of this paper is to examine the factors that determine the inflow of foreign direct investment (FDI) to SADC member states, which is critical for introducing widespread technological change, complementing domestic investment, improving the agility and competitiveness of firms, and providing access to skills and global markets. Since the end of apartheid in 1994, FDI flows to SADC have improved significantly increasing from an annual average of only $660 million in 1985–95 to about $5.9 billion in 2000–04. A number of countries in the region have taken additional steps to reform their policy stance in order to boost prospects for increased FDI inflows, while South Africa has now become an important growth pole for attracting foreign investment to the region. However, despite the economic and institutional reforms, especially by some of the low‐income countries in the region, the flow of FDI to SADC member states remains low and concentrated in few countries and sectors. The paper identifies a number of factors constraining FDI inflows, including the small size of the regional economy, persistent macroeconomic uncertainty in some important economies, high administrative barriers, inadequate physical infrastructure, weak financial systems, and growing perception of corruption. The paper argues that SADC member states need to strengthen efforts to enhance policy frameworks, both individually and collectively, in order to make the region attractive for foreign investors. More progress is required on improving the efficiency of institutions, macroeconomic policy co‐ordination and harmonization, opening up to trade, strengthening energy, transport and telecommunications infrastructure, putting more resources in developing local skills, reducing bureaucratic red tape and curbing corruption. Importantly, SADC member states should avoid heated competition or “bidding wars” for FDI, where countries seek to outbid each other in offering fiscal and financial subsidies to attract foreign investors. Competition for FDI between neighbouring countries is not only wasteful and costly, but may also weaken regional co‐operation and integration. Co‐operation at a SADC level may therefore help avoid costly bidding wars.     

转型国家外国直接投资的宏观经济效应──关于俄罗斯、中东欧八国和中国的比较

本文通过对俄罗斯、中东欧八国以及中国的比较,对转型国家FDI宏观经济效应的制度因素加以分析。在此基础上,进一步建立转型国家有FDI流入的IS/LM/BP模型,运用一般均衡分析的方法对转型国家FDI的宏观经济效应进行研究。论文指出,无论是在固定汇率下还是在浮动汇率下,FDI流入促进转型国家收入的增长都是确定的。作为转型国家的一个特例,中国兼具转型经济国家、新兴市场经济国家和发展中国家三种特征,其FDI宏观经济效应的传导机制具有一定的特殊性。中国在现行汇率体制下FDI流入的国民收入效应仍然是确定的。但是,与俄罗斯、中东欧八国等转型国家相比,FDI促进中国国民收入的提高相对较少。     

FDI and productivity convergence in Central and Eastern Europe: an industry-level investigation

This paper presents empirical evidence of the effect of FDI inflows on productivity convergence in Central and Eastern Europe, using a new and harmonized industry-level data set. Four conclusions stand out. First, there is a strong convergence effect in productivity, both at the country and at the industry level. Second, FDI inflow plays an important role in accounting for productivity growth. Third, the impact of FDI on productivity critically depends on the absorptive capacity of recipient countries and industries. Fourth, there is important heterogeneity across countries, industries and time with respect to some of the main findings.     

FDI与中国公共行政改革关联性分析

中国公共行政改革的动力源是多元化的,外商直接投资(FDI)与中国行政改革的相互作用不易描述,两者的关联性较为模糊。FDI催生了经济环境中新的非官方政策活动者,间接推动公共行政制度创新,客观要求政府经济治理方式转变,执行"优异治理"或"善政",并通过对思想库的贡献影响公共政策,对这些关联性的分析和认识有助中国公共管理改革进一步发展。     

南南型区域经济一体化能否促进FDI流入?——中国-东盟自由贸易区引资效应分析

随着区域经济一体化程度的加深,发展中国家逐渐将吸引FDI作为参与区域经济一体化的主要目标。本文以古诺数量竞争模型为基础构建了一个三国模型,指出区内贸易壁垒下降可以促进跳过关税型投资和重组性平台投资。通过对中国、东盟地区1992年——2004年FDI影响因素进行检验,指出市场规模、进口额、工资水平、对区内市场的开放程度等因素对FDI流入有影响。中国一东盟自由贸易区通过影响上述因素而提高区位优势,促进区内FDI流入的整体水平,同时中国相对于东盟国家的优势可以使一体化条件下厂商增加在中国的重组性投资。     

Country characteristics and foreign direct investment in China: A panel data analysis

Country Characteristics and Foreign Direct Investment in China: A Panel Data Analysis. — In this paper an error-components model is developed to analyze the economic, political and cultural determinants of both pledged and realized FDI in China which has recently become the second largest host country for FDI. The panel data cover the period 1983–1994 (1984–1994) and 22 (17) home countries/regions in the case of pledged (realized) FDI. The results indicate that bilateral trade, cultural differences, and relative real changes in market size, wage rates, and exchange rates are important determinants of pledged FDI, and that bilateral trade, relative changes in wage rates and exchange rates affect realized FDI.     

The “fifth world”: Regarding the historical dimension and current relevance of the refugee and migration problem

Abstract

This paper empirically tests whether the host country's financial reform promotes the inflow of foreign direct investment (FDI). We test the hypothesis on the reform period Chinese provincial yearly panel data. The system generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation shows that the effect of financial reform on inward FDI to GDP ratios is not statistically significant after controlling for other variables and time and province effects. Consistent with the previous studies, market size and openness to international trade have significant effects on the FDI/GDP ratio in both Least squares dummy variables and system GMM estimations.     

外商直接投资对我国的环境效应分析

改革开放以来,我国FDI流入量逐年增长,FDI在我国快速的经济增长中发挥了巨大的作用。然而,随着近年来我国部分省市环境恶化现象的出现。FDI对我国环境的负面影响也引起了较大关注。部分投资于污染密集型产业的FDI加剧了我国的环境污染,而部分省市盲目吸引FDI的引资政策也忽视了部分FDI对当地环境造成的严重污染。随着我国环境污染的加剧,以及人们环保意识的提高,如何协调FDI与环境之间的关系也成为我国经济发展中面临的重要问题。     

广东省FDI技术外溢效应实证研究

FDI作为当今世界技术转移最重要的载体之一,其溢出效应是推动东道国经济发展的重要动力。广东省是我国经济最发达的地区之一,也是FDI最为集中的地区之一。文章拓展了C-D生产函数模型,对FDI的技术外溢效应进行了实证分析,结果表明:外商直接投资对整个工业的技术溢出效应是存在的,但贡献度低于内资。     

Words vs. actions: International variation in the propensity to fulfil investment pledges in China

We examine whether companies from certain countries are more likely to fulfil investment pledges. Using data on contracted and utilized FDI in China, we find that firms fulfil an average of 59% of their pledges within two years. The propensity to fulfil pledges is lower for firms from countries with greater uncertainty avoidance, power distance, and egalitarianism; higher if the source country is more traditional; and is unaffected by popular attitudes towards China. Prior literature has found that these cultural characteristics are associated with higher levels of utilized FDI. We extend this to show that announcements of planned corporate activity may be more reliable for firms from countries with certain cultures.     

FDI对中国国内投资的挤入和挤出效应及进入壁垒对该效应的影响——基于行业面板数据的重新检验

本文通过构建FDI与东道国国内投资关系的理论模型,利用2003～2006年中国八大行业的面板数据实证检验了FDI对中国国内投资的挤入和挤出效应及进入壁垒对该效应的影响。研究结果表明:从总体上来看,FDI对国内投资产生了显著的挤入效应,在进入壁垒较高的行业存在并不显著的挤出效应,而在进入壁垒较低的行业却存在明显的挤入效应。     

Foreign direct investment in China: Policy,recent trend and impact 1

One of the most important elements of China's economic reform has been the promotion of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow. Government polices on FDI have gone through different stages in their main objectives since the late‐1970s, from gradually opening to foreign investors, to actively encouraging inward investment, directing FDI in accordance with domestic industrial restructuring, and complying with China's World Trade Organization (WTO) obligations. FDI in China has experienced rapid growth especially since the mid‐1990s, as well as structural change. Most of the earlier investments were small scale, labor‐intensive and export‐oriented. In recent years, more investment has been large scale and more capital and technology intensive, aiming at both domestic and export markets. Moreover, increasingly more investment has come from the industrial world, and has located along the eastern coastal regions, in additional to the two southeastern provinces. FDI has played a crucial role in China's rapid growth, economic transition, and, mostly importantly, integration with the world. China's recent accession to the WTO provides more incentives to foreign investors. At the same time, it will also result in more intense competition for domestic firms.     

China's outward foreign direct investment in the Belt and Road Initiative: What are the motives for Chinese firms to invest?

Because of the potentially large and important effects of the extremely ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) launched by China in late 2013, considerable attention has been given to the motives for, and repercussions of, the BRI-driven infrastructural projects. Yet, the non-infrastructural outward foreign direct investment (FDI) from China to BRI countries, which varies quite substantially across different sectors and different countries, has not yet received much attention. In contrast to some recent studies showing that the massive initiative has increased China's total FDI outflows to fellow BRI countries, in this paper, based on our sector-level difference-in-differences models, we find that effect to be statistically insignificant. Yet, at the same time, we provide empirical evidence on the sectoral pattern of China's outward FDI before and after 2014 indicating that China's FDI outflows to BRI countries have significantly increased in sectors characterized by overcapacity and contributing to pollution in China, thereby demonstrating that China's BRI-driven outward FDI has been very selective in terms of sectors. We confirm these findings with a variety of robustness checks and show that it is BRI countries with relatively low institutional quality that have been more likely to receive these types of FDI from China. We thus speculate that Chinese firms have been motivated to place FDI investments in BRI countries for the sake of alleviating China's own overcapacity and pollution problems. Our findings lead us to suggest that, although these sectoral patterns are consistent with the different stages of economic development in which China and its fellow BRI-identified countries find themselves, Chinese investors and host country governments should be more concerned with the potential for unwanted side-effects of the FDI investments so that the mutually beneficial effects of the BRI can be sustained into the indefinite future among all countries involved.     

中印两国利用外国直接投资比较——基于美国直接投资流入的视角

本文从美国直接投资流入中印两国的现状、对中印两国的影响及影响美国直接投资流入的因素等三方面,对中印两国利用外国直接投资进行了比较研究。