杠杆率的持续性与溢出效应:基于四部门的实证研究

文章采用TVP-VAR模型系统考察了我国非金融企业部门、金融部门、居民部门、政府部门四部门杠杆分别对总产出和资产价格波动的时变影响，从产出效应和潜在风险两方面实证检验了各部门杠杆率的可持续性。研究发现：杠杆率过快增长会加重资产价格波动，使金融不稳定性上升，削弱杠杆率对产出增长的促进作用。当前，非金融企业部门、政府部门、居民部门杠杆对产出仍有较显著的正向影响，而金融部门杠杆上升对产出的正向影响最小，对资产价格波动的正向影响最大。进一步，文章实证研究了杠杆率变动在部门间的信息溢出，发现政府部门加杠杆将显著推升全社会杠杆率，金融部门杠杆率上升对非金融企业部门杠杆有挤出作用，居民部门杠杆则可以分担部分非金融企业和政府部门的过剩杠杆。因此，当前应优先调控金融部门杠杆，减少资金在金融体系内空转套利，其他三个部门则应保持杠杆率总量的平稳。研究结论对于宏观金融稳定和结构性去杠杆政策的实施有重要的实践意义。     

Effect of promotion pressure and financial burden on investment in public–private partnership infrastructure projects in China

By identifying the political motives of officials and local governments, this study aims to provide a new political economic analysis framework for understanding China's incentives for investing in public–private partnership (PPP) infrastructure projects. Chinese urban panel data for the period 2013–17 were used to examine the mechanisms of promotion pressure and financial burden in relation to investments in PPP infrastructure projects. Based on our findings, the following policy recommendations are proposed: standardise the behaviour of local government officials in promoting PPP projects, establish a lifelong accountability mechanism for PPP project performance, establish a mechanism for local government debt risk assessment and prevention, and avoid the risk of local debt arising from over‐investment in PPP infrastructure projects. Moreover, a match should be formed between local economic infrastructure planning and investment plans to avoid over‐ or under‐investment.     

政府投资公益性项目全过程风险研究

政府投资公益性项目组织关系复杂,参与主体众多。为降低项目风险、减少损失以及控制成本,基于风险管理和全生命周期管理理论,首先对公益性项目各阶段风险事件进行识别以及风险因素和其所属主体进行分析;通过构建了公益性项目全过程风险管理体系,并运用故障树分析（FTA）方法对全过程风险进行定性和定量分析。研究表明：在公益性项目全生命周期内,项目外部环境、计划制定不合理、运营管理方式不当、项目维护不当、业主方管理不当等因素是导致政府投资项目风险事件的主要因素,基于此提出相应的风险应对措施,同时为政府投资决策提供了更丰富的信息。     

Understanding the Growth of African Financial Markets*

Abstract: This paper examines empirically the determinants of financial market development in Africa with an emphasis on banking systems and stock markets. The results show that income level, creditor rights protection, financial repression, and political risk are the main determinants of banking sector development in Africa, and that stock market liquidity, domestic savings, banking sector development, and political risk are the main determinants of stock market development. We also find that liberalizing the capital account promotes financial market development only in countries with high incomes, well‐developed institutions, or both. The powerful impacts of political risk on both banking sector and stock market development suggest that resolution of political risk may be important to the development of African financial markets.     

我国区域金融风险的时空演化及驱动机制——基于经济四部门视角

文章基于我国2005至2016年的分省数据，采用SMR和基尼系数法刻画了区域金融风险的时空演化趋势，并通过构建多样化空间关联模式，运用空间偏微分方法，从经济四部门视角验证了区域金融风险时空演化的驱动机制。研究发现：从我国区域金融风险的时空演化来看，在时间维度上，大部分省份仍存在较高的金融风险，在空间维度上，样本考察期内东部地区和西部地区金融风险地区内差异较大，中部较小，东部地区和中部地区金融风险的地区间差异最大，东部地区和西部地区次之，中部地区和西部地区最小；区域内政府、企业和家庭部门是导致区域金融风险时空演化的主要原因，且区域间的风险外溢效应加大了对区域金融风险的冲击作用。因此，国家防控金融风险要切中要害，从区域金融风险的源头抓起，充分考虑地区之间的空间关联，防止区域内外驱动机制对区域金融风险的放大作用，避免决策偏误。     

What can we learn on Chinese aid allocation motivations from available data? A sectorial analysis of Chinese aid to African countries

Since the creation of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) in 2000, Chinese official development assistance (ODA) to Africa has increased drastically. Only few analyses on the determinants of Chinese ODA allocation to African countries are available. Moreover, existing literature mainly focused on total aid flows while Chinese motivations for aid allocation might differ depending on the ODA sector considered. Our objective is to study the factors associated with Chinese aid allocation to African countries by sector between 2000 and 2014. We consider three ODA broad sectors as defined by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD): the social infrastructure and services sector, the economic infrastructure and services sector and the production sector. Chinese ODA is measured using AidData's Global Chinese Official Finance Dataset, 2000–2014, Version 1.0. Over the 2000–2014 period, China allocated 971, 218 and 138 ODA projects to African countries in the social infrastructure and services sector, the economic infrastructure and services sector and the production sector respectively. Between 2000 and 2014, the economic infrastructure and services sector was the first sector in terms of ODA amount with a total of US$18.9 billion ahead from the social infrastructure and services sector with US$7 billion or the production sector with US$3.1 billion. Results of our analysis suggest that the motivations of Chinese aid allocation to African countries differ by sector. Chinese ODA in the social infrastructure and services sector appears more responsive to the economic needs of recipient countries but is also more driven by foreign policy considerations. Chinese economic interest, in particular for natural resources acquisition, is associated with China's ODA allocation in the economic infrastructure and services sector. Finally, while governance quality in recipient countries is not related to Chinese ODA in the social infrastructure and services sector, we find that China allocates more ODA in the economic infrastructure and services sector and the production sector to African countries with weaker institutions. One of the strong conclusions of this study is to show that considering only China's overall aid to Africa can be misleading as to its underlying determinants, and therefore to point out the need to disaggregate the analysis by ODA sectors.     

The Asian crisis,private sector saving,and policy implications

The Asian financial crisis has several critical implications for the saving behavior in the crisis-hit economies as well as in other Asian economies, which are summarized as follows: increase in economic uncertainty; increase in poverty; decrease in public confidence in financial institutions; financial liberalization; and reduction in corporate leverage ratio. Putting these together, the postcrisis saving rates in the crisis economies are likely to decrease without government interventions. Although the uncertainity factor may contribute to an increase in short-term saving, an abated level in household income and corporate output and slow GDP growth will lead to a contraction in saving rates. Increased poverty, diminished public confidence in banking institutions, and the increased variability of business sales will further contribute to a reduction in saving rates of the household and corporate sectors. Keeping this in mind, the postcrisis saving policy should consider stronger macroeconomic stabilization policies to reduce the underlying economic uncertainty to encourage long-term savings/investments; improving the public confidence in financial institutions through financial restructuring and a proper deposit insurance scheme in place; channeling informal sector saving into the formal financial institutions; and promoting propoor saving policies.     

National and provincial PPPs: Issues of supervision and accountability

This article focuses on the key requirements for an enabling framework for the implementation of public‐private partnerships (PPPs) in South Africa. It contends that such an enabling framework should facilitate coherent government policies and legislation, secure procurement reform, enhance capacity, foster stringent ‐ albeit not constraining ‐financial regulation and put in place supportive institutional arrangements. Arguing that PPPs revolve around risk sharing between the public and private sector, value for money and affordability, key features of the South African policy environment as it affects PPPs are discussed. Amid considerable progress, policies across sectors could still be better aligned, legislative inconsistencies straightened out, procurement procedures and approaches updated to focus more sharply on value for money (rather than lowest price) and financial uncertainties countered. It is also noted that PPPs currently occur in an institutional vacuum in the public sector. It is therefore proposed that a dedicated institutional capacity be created to support PPPs more effectively.     

Squatters,collective action,and participation: Learning from Lusaka

There are few large self-help housing projects that endeavour to have real squatter participation in the decision-making processes. Because of the substantial community building skills of the Zambians involved, the Lusaka Housing Project in Zambia may be a worthwhile example of what can be done. Utilizing the rational-actor model, this article identifies the core obstacles to collective action. Where collective action is necessary to deal with a problem, collective effort will rarely be rational and, hence, will rarely take place. If and when it does occur, it means increased leverage. At another level, therefore, this project raises a paradox. There is an intricate interdependence between rural and urban sectors in national development. Increased leverage for previously powerless urban squatters can add to the pressures for an urban bias in public expenditures and have negative consequences for rural development. If, however, there is no increased leverage, then one must question the reality of the participation.     

商业银行参与PPP项目的风险分担研究——基于三方静态博弈模型

在我国地方债问题日趋严重的背景下,PPP模式是未来我国基础设施建设的发展方向,而商业银行作为资金融通最重要的中介,势必在PPP项目中发挥较大的作用。首先概述了PPP的内涵和参与PP项目的三方主体,其次对PPP项目中的各类风险进行了分类,然后利用三方静态博弈模型讨论了政府、私营企业和银行的风险分担模式,得出应由风险偏好系数大的一方承担风险的结论,最后对商业银行在参与PPP项目中的风险分担的策略提出建议。     

互联网普及如何影响中国家庭债务杠杆率

互联网技术的普及推动了数字金融、移动支付、金融科技等一系列金融创新的发展，基于此，文章利用中国家庭金融调查（CHFS）2017年的数据，细致探讨了互联网这一最基础的技术普及与家庭债务杠杆率的关系及内在作用机理。结果发现：（1）互联网的使用将显著推高家庭的债务杠杆率。在使用工具变量回归、处理效应模型与PSM匹配纠正内生性问题后，这一结论依然成立。（2）除通过促进电子支付、增加金融可及性外，互联网的使用还将通过提高信息搜寻与增强社会互动这两种渠道而带来家庭债务杠杆率的累积。（3）互联网的使用与家庭债务杠杆率间存在显著的非线性关系，即意味着只有当对互联网的使用达到一定程度后，其才会带来家庭债务风险。（4）对于受需求型信贷约束、低收入与中老年群体，互联网使用对这类群体债务杠杆率的影响程度更大。进一步地，除网络平台借款将推高家庭债务杠杆外，文章还考察了互联网的使用对民间借贷的影响，并发现其对家庭非正规借贷杠杆率的影响更为突出。而对于金融知识欠缺的家庭，其债务杠杆率更高。这说明，在鼓励使用互联网推动家庭参与金融市场的同时，也要注意防范过度使用互联网所带来的金融风险，而其中一种有效的途径便是普及金融知识教育，提高居民的金融素养。     

China's sovereign debt: A balance-sheet perspective

We analyze China's sovereign debt by constructing balance sheets for China's government and public sector. We find that China's government debt-to-GDP ratio is lower than that of most large developed economies. We also find the debt-to-asset ratio of China's government and public sector significantly lower than its own historical height (1998–2002). Local government debt is mainly to finance infrastructure investments. Local government debt risk is amplified by two mismatches. The first is the income-expenditure mismatch between central and local governments. The second is the maturity mismatch of short-term debt and long-term infrastructure investments. The maturity mismatch may cause short-term repayment difficulties.     

Redefining and Containing Systemic Risk

Official definitions of systemic risk leave out the role of government officials in generating it. Policymakers’ support of creative forms of risk-taking and their proclivity for absorbing losses in crisis situations encourage opportunistic firms to foster and exploit incentive conflicts within the supervisory sector. To restore faith in the diligence, competence, and integrity of officials responsible for managing the financial safety net, reforms need to rework incentives in the government and financial sectors. The goal should be to align the incentives of private risk managers, accountants, credit-rating firms, and government supervisors with those of ordinary taxpayers. This article describes a series of complementary ways of advancing toward this goal. The most important steps would be to measure regulatory performance in terms of its effect on the loss exposures that the safety net passes through to taxpayers and to require institutions that benefit from the net to produce information that would support this effort. This entails estimating the explicit and implicit safety-net benefits individual institutions receive and issuing extended-liability securities whose prices would improve the accuracy of these estimates.     

地方政府融资平台贷款的形成原因分析

地方政府融资平台是我国特定历史条件下的产物,从1984年十二届三中全会通过《改革经济体制的决定》,拓宽重大基础设施建设项目的投融资渠道成为迫切需要,始于1994年的分税制改革将地方税与国家税分开收支管理,进一步加大了地方政府在"事权"与"财权"上的不匹配,为应对美国"次贷危机"影响,地方政府融资平台开始了大规模、实质性的探索实践。从地方政府融资平台的融资结构看,银行借款无疑是最重要的来源,由于地方政府融资平台债务余额不断膨胀且运作机制不够规范,地方财政的偿债风险日益加大。因此,梳理出地方政府融资平台贷款的成因对构建健康的基础设施领域投融资渠道、规范地方政府的负债行为具有重要的现实意义。本文主要是通过对地方政府融资平台的产生背景和发展脉络入手,找出地方政府融资平台贷款形成的原因。     

Liberalisation and Financial Sector Competition: A Critical Contribution to the Empirics with an African Assessment

This paper investigates how financial, trade, institutional and political liberalisation policies have affected financial sector competition in Africa using updated data to appraise second‐generation reforms. The “freedom to trade” and “economic freedom” indices are employed. Hitherto, unexplored financial sector concepts of formalisation, semi‐formalisation, informalisation and non‐formalisation are also introduced. The following findings are established. First, relative to money supply, (i) with the exception of the economic freedom mechanism, liberalisation policies have generally decreased the growth of the formal financial sector to the benefit of other financial sectors; (ii) apart from the foreign direct investment and economic freedom channels, liberalisation policies have been fruitful for semi‐formal financial development at the cost of other financial sectors and; (iii) with the exception of economic freedom, both the informal and non‐formal sectors have developed owing to liberalisation to the detriment of the formal financial sector. Second, relative to gross domestic product, the semi‐formal, informal and/or non‐formal financial sectors have also generally improved as a result of liberalisation. Policy implications are discussed.     

US vs. euro area: Who drives cross-border bank lending to EMs?

This paper analyzes the drivers of cross-border bank lending to 49 Emerging Markets (EMs) during the period 1990Q1–2014Q4, by assessing the impact of monetary, financial and real sector shocks in both the US and the euro area. The literature has traditionally highlighted the influence of US monetary policy on driving cross-border bank flows, and more recently the importance of both US and Euro Area (EA) financial/banking sectors’ related variables. Our contribution is the simultaneous analysis of the role of these US and EA drivers, as well as their interactions with real sector shocks. We corroborate the negative impact of US monetary policy tightening on cross-border lending to EMs, but we find that EA monetary policy seems to have an impact mostly on Emerging Europe, reflecting the fact that cross-border lending to most other EM regions is dollar denominated. We also find that real sector shocks in both the US and EA trigger an increase in cross-border lending, but less in EA when modeling the financial sector. Finally, for financial sector shocks, such as those associated with a decrease in bank leverage, our results indicate a broad-based overall contraction of cross-border lending if the shock originates in the US, and heterogenous effects across borrowing regions if the shock originates in the EA.     

Wage Determination Differences between Chinese State and Non-State Firms

Market-oriented economic reform has given much greater autonomy to state and collective enterprises' managers to make production, investment and marketing decisions. However, as the assets of these enterprises are still owned by government at different levels, the decision-making and risk-bearing functions of enter-prises may be divorced, firms are more likely to maximize income per employee rather than firm's profits. This hypothesis is tested in this paper by analysing Chinese enterprises' earnings determination behaviour using a data set encompassing state, collective and private sectors. The main findings are that the state and the collective sectors behave more like labour managed firms in that they try to maximize income per worker rather than profit, whereas private-sector firms are profit maximizers. Furthermore, collective-sector firms which bear a higher degree of risk, appear to base their profit sharing decisions more on enterprises' economic and financial performance, than do state-owned enterprises. Hence collective enterprises' bonus payments improve productivity more than do state-sector bonuses.     

An Index‐Based Model for Determining the Investment Benchmark of Renewable Energy Projects in South Africa

In a globalised world, financial markets observe the optimal level of asset allocation and returns based on risk inherent in the economies. Whether public or private investors, they need to have an optimal return on their investment given the finite resources. In relatively new sectors like grid‐connected renewable energy, many investors face difficulty in assessing proper return, making them more averse to financing such projects, affecting transborder project development opportunities. In developing countries like South Africa, which has tremendous potential for renewable energy projects, an arbitrary choice of the required rate of return for project evaluations can negatively affect funding decisions. This paper explores an index‐based model to make fair estimates of the required equity benchmark internal rate of return (IRR) using financial markets observation for renewable energy projects in South Africa. The index‐based model is parsimonious and captures common macroeconomic factors. More specifically, it provides a simple and effective mechanism to calculate IRR for renewable energy projects given different gestation periods.     

实体经济杠杆率、影子银行规模与系统性金融风险——基于TVP-VAR模型的实证研究

防范系统性金融风险、维持金融体系的稳定是中国经济工作的重中之重.通过时变参数向量自回归模型(TVP-VAR)分析实体经济杠杆率、影子银行规模对系统性金融风险的时变影响.研究发现,实体经济杠杆率与影子银行规模之间存在相互促进的关系,并且两者对系统性金融风险的冲击响应具有时变性和实滞效应.鉴于此,应加强实体经济部门去杠杆、影子银行监管,注重各金融风险防范政策之间的联动反应,以维护金融体系的稳定.     

Does “skin in the game” reduce risk taking? Leverage,liability and the long-run consequences of new deal banking reforms

This essay examines how the Banking Acts of the 1933 and 1935 and related New Deal legislation influenced risk taking in the financial sector of the U.S. economy. The analysis focuses on contingent liability of bank owners for losses incurred by their firms and how the elimination of this liability influenced leverage and lending by commercial banks. Using a new panel data set, we find contingent liability reduced risk taking. In states with contingent liability, banks used less leverage and converted each dollar of capital into fewer loans, and thus could survive larger loan losses (as a fraction of their portfolio) than banks in limited liability states. In states with limited liability, banks took on more leverage and risk, particularly in states that required banks with limited liability to join the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. In the long run, the New Deal replaced a regime of contingent liability with deposit insurance, stricter balance sheet regulation, and increased capital requirements, shifting the onus of risk management from bankers to state and federal regulators.