Chinese Outward Foreign Direct Investment and Industrial Upgrading from the Perspective of Differences among Countries

This paper constructs a two‐sector model to identify the effects of outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) in different countries on China's industrial upgrading and conducts an empirical analysis using provincial‐level panel data from 2003–2015. The results show that China can benefit from industrial upgrading via OFDI in developed countries by way of reverse technology spillover. This effect is significant in the eastern region, but not in the central and western regions. China can also benefit from industrial upgrading via OFDI in developing countries and countries along the Belt and Road through marginal industrial transfer. This effect is more significant in the central region, followed by the western and eastern regions. Our results imply that China should promote technology‐seeking OFDI in developed countries, and enhance efficiency‐seeking OFDI in developing countries, especially in countries along the Belt and Road.     

数字经济对产业层面就业结构的影响——基于产业结构升级的中介效应

结合已有研究从理论层面梳理数字经济、产业结构、就业结构之间的关系，并用我国2010—2021年省级面板数据，实证分析数字经济对产业层面就业结构的影响。结果表明，数字经济能够促进就业结构优化，且产业结构升级起到了中介作用。具体来说，数字经济能够通过促进产业结构服务化来促进就业结构优化。此外，数字经济对不同地区的就业结构有异质性影响。基于理论和实证分析结果，提出促进我国就业结构优化的政策建议。     

Impact of China's Outward Foreign Direct Investment on Its Regional Economic Growth

This paper investigates the impact of China's outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) on its economic growth. By using a provincial‐level panel dataset and applying fixed‐effects and instrumental variable regression techniques, the study finds that both OFDI from provincial firms and OFDI from state‐owned enterprises have a positive impact on China's provincial economic growth. The positive impact of OFDI on provincial economic growth may be the result of reverse knowledge spillovers from OFDI to the home provincial economy through demonstration and imitation, labor movement, and backward and forward industrial linkages, thus increasing the productivity and the efficiency of home firms and promoting the growth of the home economy.     

人口老龄化、技术创新与产业结构升级

人口老龄化是当前中国面临的挑战，能够对产业结构升级产生重要影响。基于长江经济带11省市2009—2019年的省级面板数据，实证研究人口老龄化、技术创新与产业结构升级的关系。结果表明：人口老龄化对产业结构高级化和产业结构合理化产生积极影响。当以技术创新作为门槛变量时，人口老龄化与产业结构升级的关系呈现单门槛特征，在技术创新跨越门槛值后，人口老龄化的正向作用变得更强。     

The impact of outward FDI on the performance of Chinese firms

Using new firm-level data from the Emerging Multinationals' Events and Networks DATAbase (EMENDATA), this paper investigates the effects on Chinese firms of Outward FDI (OFDI) into advanced European countries. Propensity score matching is combined with a difference-in-difference (DiD) estimator to reduce the problem of self-selection of treated firms in foreign markets, and to eliminate time-invariant and unobservable differences between those firms and the controls. The results provide robust evidence supporting the view that China's OFDI so far have had a positive impact on domestic activities in enhancing firms' productivity and scales of operation, measured by sales and employment. When we distinguish among investments on the basis of entry mode, accounting for endogeneity in the selection process, acquisitions facilitate early access to intangible assets, but are detrimental to financial performance, while greenfield investments have a stronger impact on the scale and productivity of Chinese multinationals investing in Europe.     

对外直接投资对企业创新的影响分析

文章基于中国快速增长的对外投资和技术升级与结构转型的背景，考察对外投资对企业创新的影响及其作用机制。基于对外投资影响企业创新的理论机制分析，文章利用中国上市公司财务与专利数据检验了对外投资对企业创新的影响，为克服样本选择和内生性问题，文章采用了倾向匹配得分法和双重差分法进行估计，研究发现，对外投资显著地提高了企业的创新产出，随着时间的推移，对外投资对发明专利申请的贡献具有持续性，对非发明专利的贡献较小且不具有持续性。仅进行海外并购投资的企业，对外投资对其发明专利没有影响。影响机制检验结果表明，对外投资会通过提高研发投入和外部学习效应来促进企业创新。     

“凿空之旅”泽万民:“一带一路”对外直接投资如何提高劳动收入份额

文章基于2003-2016年中国上市公司数据,采用倾向得分匹配和双重差分法（PSM-DID）探讨"一带一路"沿线对外直接投资与母国劳动收入份额之间的因果关系。实证发现,企业对外直接投资长期内整体上提高了职工的工资份额。考虑企业所处地区、行业和劳动者的异质性后,结论仍然稳健。具体而言,企业通过对外直接投资的逆向技术溢出提高了创新能力、研发投入和全要素生产率,从而提高了母国职工工资份额。此外,企业的技术进步具有高技能劳动力的偏向性,母国高技能劳动者的工资份额在企业对外直接投资中得以显著提升,但对于母国低技能劳动者的工资份额影响不显著。文章研究发现"一带一路"沿线对外直接投资对母国劳动收入份额的影响机制和具体效应提供了微观证据。     

Rethinking the impact of GDP on financial development: Evidence from heterogeneous panels

This paper examines the nonlinear impact of real GDP per capita on financial development in a panel of 125 countries. It also determines the moderating effect of inflation on the impact of GDP on financial development. It employs the dynamic panel system generalized method of moments (GMM) and the dynamic common correlated effects (CCE) to do both panel and country‐specific analysis, as well as control for cross‐sectional dependence, heterogeneity and endogeneity. This study shows that GDP has a positive impact on financial development in the entire panel. However, when we split the panel into different income groups, we find a positive impact in the high‐ and middle‐income groups while the impact is insignificant in the low income group. Although we find no evidence of a nonlinear impact of GDP on financial development in the panel, the country‐specific analysis reveals a significant nonlinear relationship between GDP and financial development in 73 countries. We also show that inflation adversely moderates the positive impact of GDP on financial development in middle‐income countries. This study implies that the relationship between GDP and financial development depends on the levels of GDP and inflation rate. We recommend some policy options based on the findings.     

The human cost of China's industrial growth

This paper examines whether industrial growth during economic development is associated with a high workplace fatality rate by using panel data from China. Controlling for provincial and year fixed effects, our estimations show that provincial industrial growth has a positive impact on the workplace fatality rate. We also find that both the growth of industrial labor productivity and the growth of industrial employment have an impact on workplace fatalities. Our instrumental variable fixed effects estimations, which control for simultaneity, show an even greater effect of industrial growth on the fatality rate. Our empirical findings suggest that the Chinese government ought to reconsider its growth-centered policies to save lives.     

Impact of Outward Foreign Direct Investment on Chinese Manufacturing Firms' Financialization and Servitization

This study examines the impact of outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) on Chinese manufacturing firms' financialization and servitization. Using a difference-in-differences approach with propensity score matching, we found that OFDI encouraged firms' financial and service activities. The effects of OFDI on financialization were stronger for firms specializing in short-term financial assets, operating in labor and technology-intensive sectors, investing overseas to pursue production, resources and markets there, and investing in non-OECD and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries. Meanwhile, firms investing overseas were more likely to provide services at the sale or postsale stages. Outward foreign direct investment has also boosted the service activities of firms operating in the technology-intensive sector by investing overseas to seek resources and markets, as well as investing in non-OECD and BRI countries. Finally, OFDI partially influenced the extent of financialization and servitization of firms by affecting their profit-making ability.     

日本对东盟OFDI的母国产业升级效应

基于2003—2020年日本对东盟十国的直接投资数据，并选取产业结构高级化IS和合理化IR两种指标来衡量日本国内产业结构演进状况，构建向量自回归模型，实证分析日本对东盟对外直接投资（OFDI）对国内产业升级的影响。长期Johansen协整检验和短期向量误差修正VECM模型的研究结果表明，日本对东盟的直接投资对国内产业结构合理化和高级化存在稳定的均衡关系。最后在借鉴日本对东盟直接投资近50年的投资经验的基础上对中国产业发展提出了相关产业合理化和高级化调整建议。     

产业结构升级、能源效率与绿色发展的影响研究

基于SBM-GML指数模型测算中国30个省级地区绿色全要素生产率,衡量中国经济绿色发展状况,采用2005—2020年30个省级地区数据所构成的动态面板SYS-GMM模型,并结合中介效应模型,研究产业结构升级、能源效率对绿色发展的影响及作用机制。研究发现：产业结构升级对绿色发展的影响呈“U”型曲线关系,即随着产业结构升级水平的提高,绿色发展会表现出下降-上升的变化趋势；能源效率提升对绿色发展具有正向的促进作用；能源效率在产业结构升级对绿色发展的影响过程中具有显著的中介效应。据此建议：以供给侧结构性改革推动资源禀赋的产业结构升级,因地制宜实施产业节能减排政策；发展新型清洁能源,优化能源消费结构,促进经济绿色发展。     

Overseas industrial parks and China's outward foreign direct investment

We manually collect data on China's overseas industrial parks from 2007 to 2018, and match it with data on the country’s outward foreign direct investment (OFDI), using the system generalized method of moment (system GMM) approach to test how constructing overseas industrial parks affects China's OFDI. The results indicate that each new overseas industrial park established significantly increases China's OFDI by 2.89%. And the effect only exists in non-high-income host countries, rather than high-income host countries. We also investigate the effects of different types of industrial parks, and find that agricultural, light industrial, high-tech, comprehensive and heavy industrial parks have significant effects, while logistics parks do not. The mechanism analysis suggests that establishing overseas industrial parks increases China’s OFDI by reducing host countries’ economic and financial risks, and improving bilateral political relations. We further find that establishing overseas industrial parks is more likely to promote OFDI in host countries with imperfect infrastructure, impeded capital flows and low levels of unimpeded information. Our findings shed light on how developing countries could enlarge and stabilize OFDI.     

数字金融对碳排放强度的空间效应及影响机制

基于中国2011—2020年省级面板数据，采用双向固定效应模型、中介效应模型、空间计量模型研究数字金融对区域碳排放强度的影响。研究发现：数字金融发展对碳排放强度具有显著的抑制效应，进行内生性处理后结论依然成立；数字金融通过经济发展质量、产业结构升级降低了碳排放强度；空间溢出效应分析表明数字金融对邻近地区碳排放强度具有正向空间溢出效应。因此，各地区之间应保持紧密的合作，不断推进数字金融高质量发展，因地制宜地发展数字金融。     

新基建发展对产业升级的影响机制研究

新基建作为现代化基础设施体系的重要组成部分，已经成为中国经济高质量发展的重要支撑。基于2015—2021年中国71个城市的面板数据，构建双向固定效应、中介效应和调节效应三种回归模型，实证检验新基建发展对城市产业结构水平的影响及内在机制。研究发现：新基建发展能促进产业高级化水平，改善不合理的产业结构状态，提升产业合理化水平；新基建通过发展物联网和激励城市研发创新两种间接路径对产业结构转型升级产生积极影响；新基建对产业结构水平的影响受到地方政府干预行为的调节作用，在地方政府合理的行政管理下，新基建对产业转型升级的积极作用更为明显；新基建发展对产业结构水平的提升作用具有区域异质性和城市规模异质性，在中西部地区和大城市地区的作用效果更为明显。     

数字经济、产业升级与就业质量

数字经济时代就业质量的提升对稳就业的实现至关重要。利用2011—2020年30个省（区、市）面板数据进行分析，通过实证检验产业升级与数字经济和就业质量之间的关系。研究发现，数字经济显著提升了就业质量。同时，产业升级在数字经济发展与就业质量提升方面具有显著中介效应，即数字经济能通过产业升级路径来提升就业质量。因此，为了提高国家当前就业质量，需要推动产业升级，加大数字技术与实体经济融合发展。     

Does Outward Foreign Direct Investment Facilitate China's Export Upgrading?

This paper empirically investigates the impact of China's outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) on its export sophistication. Using a provincial‐level panel dataset and applying fixed effects and instrumental variable regression techniques, the study finds that, on average, OFDI has no significant impact on China's export sophistication. However, after the full sample is divided into different regions, the study finds that OFDI has a positive and significant impact on export sophistication in the developed coastal region, but no such impact is observed in the less developed inland regions. Further investigation using a panel threshold model reveals that only when GDP, per capita GDP, human capital, and the research and development intensity of a home economy reach a certain level can OFDI promote export sophistication. The findings suggest that accelerating eco nomic development and increasing absorptive capacity can facilitate the contribution of OFDI to China's export sophistication.     

产业融合对产业结构升级的效应研究:以上海市为例

产业融合对产业结构升级具有明显的提升作用。本文以上海市六大支柱产业为例并通过大量的统计分析和计量检验,结果支持了这一基本判断。本文研究还发现,产业融合对产业结构升级的提升作用,主要是通过信息技术嵌入和改造传统产业来实现的,并最终在产业结构转换值、就业结构转换值、经济效益转换值、摩尔结构转换值以及结构熵指数等方面有所反映。     

数字化促进产业结构升级的时空格局及机理研究

数字化是我国产业结构升级的重要方向，对新产业增值、要素配置重组、新市场开拓起到重要促进作用。本文从产出结构和就业结构两个方面构建制造业升级评价指数并采用Dagum基尼系数分析我国产业结构升级的区域差异及时空格局，同时将我国产业结构升级影响因素分为内部因素和外部因素，采用空间面板数据模型并基于两种空间权重实证分析了数字化促进我国产业结构升级机理。研究结果表明：2011-2020年我国产业结构升级水平持续提升，产业结构升级指数由0.886增长到1.434，年间增速为5.42%；区域差异呈现下降趋势，区域差距主要来源于组间差距，华北、华东、华南地区的组内差异最大；空间计量模型估计结果显示数字化对产业结构升级的促进作用显著，技术创新、要素禀赋、所有制结构、出口水平有助于产业结构升级，而人力资本、外资技术溢出对产业结构升级存在抑制效应。     

绿色信贷对内蒙古自治区产业结构优化

内蒙古自治区在优化调整产业结构上，在实现碳达峰、碳中和目标上，仍面临着诸多困难和挑战。为研究绿色信贷政策的实施对内蒙古自治区产业结构优化升级的影响，在梳理国内学者研究的基础上，分别分析绿色信贷对产业结构优化升级的影响机理和内蒙古自治区产业结构和绿色信贷发展现状。基于自治区12个盟市面板数据，对绿色信贷与自治区产业结构之间的关系进行实证研究。结果表明：绿色信贷能够促进自治区产业结构优化升级，但对不同区域的促进作用有所差异；绿色信贷对第二产业、第三产业发展分别显现出正向促进和负向抑制作用。最后提出完善绿色信贷政策体制机制、加强金融机构绿色信贷融资机制、强化区域研发能力及技术创新机制的政策建议。