Price Rigidity and the Selection of the Exchange Rate Regime

We evaluate and qualify Friedman's, 1953, “case for flexible exchange rates” in the presence of sticky prices in a two country model. We find that a flexible regime performs indeed better when the degree of nominal price rigidity is high while a bilateral peg does better when prices are fairly flexible. This result obtains independent of whether monetary policy is activistic or not and is mostly due to the negative relationship between employment and productivity shocks when prices are relatively sluggish (Gali, 1999). A unilateral peg tends to produce the lowest level of world welfare but it sometimes represents the best monetary arrangement for the pegger. JEL Classification Numbers: E32, E52, F33, F42     

Hub-and-Spokes Free Trade Agreements in the Presence of Technology Spillovers: An Application to the Western Hemisphere

Using a comparative-static general equilibrium model in the context of the Western Hemisphere, this paper compares the economic effects of a “hub-and-spokes” type of bilateral trade configuration (with Chile being the hub) with those of a more comprehensive regional FTA (namely, the FTAA). The model is augmented to account for the possibility of technology spillovers and its effective assimilation among participating economies. In particular, absorptive capacity, governance factor, proximity and socio-institutional congruence conjointly determine an economy’s capacity to capture the technology that is transmitted from the developed spoke United States to other regions. JEL no. D58, F13, O33     

Regional integration in East Asia. From market-driven regionalisation to institutionalised regionalism?

Conclusions The analyses have shown that ESACs unprecedented emergence in world trade and capital transactions has been accompanied by a growing share of intra-area transactions. At least for the goods sector, the evidence is clear. Intra-area transactions grew faster than those to the rest of world, and the latter rose faster than world trade. Given this “double growth” performance, there was no trade diversion in the static zero sum meaning. Driving forces of fast growing intra-area transactions were basically internal conditions, such as “natural” trading partnership (geographical and cultural proximity, size, and complementarity in resource endowment and production structure), rising income levels fostering intra-industry trade, the economic opening of China, and unilateral liberalisation of trade and capital transactions on a non-discriminatory basis. It cannot be denied that external factors as protectionism and recession in non-Asian OECD countries have also contributed to this performance. Yet, it seems safe to assume that even without the US and European recession in the early eighties and early nineties and without the spread on non-tariff barriers, intraarea transactions would have received sufficient fuels from the internal factors to grow more rapidly than transactions with the rest of the world.¹⁷ Furthermore, a base effect of a low initial level of intra-area trade cannot be neglected.     

The Dutch Grey Market

When-issued trading concerns transactions in securities that have not yet been issued. This paper investigates the Dutch “grey market” for when-issued shares prior to stock splits, using a unique hand-collected data set. Market makers are more likely to set up a when-issued market when the underlying firm is larger, the relative trading volume of the stock is higher, and the stock return is less volatile. The when-issued securities trade at a small premium over the regular shares during the weeks prior to the stock split, but this when-issued premium disappears in the last days of trading.     

Entrepreneurship and intra-industry trade

Entrepreneurship and Intra-Industry Trade. — The paper introduces entrepreneurs into the theories of intra-industry trade and investigates the role of a country ’s “entrepreneurship” in international trade. It is shown that therelative entrepreneurship between countries determines the terms of trade but the welfare effects are not obvious. Among other things, it is found that (1) an increase in exports improves the terms of trade and (2) an increase in country size is not always beneficial.     

U.S. Antidumping Enforcement and Macroeconomic Indicators Revisited: Do Petitioners Learn?

We contribute to the literature on the political economy of U.S. antidumping enforcement through an analysis of the pattern—and macroeconomic determinants—of country-specific antidumping petitions filed by U.S. firms against 15 countries between 1981 and 1998 (examining quarterly data). We reconcile some seemingly inconsistent results from the prior literature by suggesting that “learning” by petitioners about the administration—in practice—of the U.S. trade laws has led to changes in the roles of the macroeconomic determinants over time. JEL no. F13     

Openness and income disparities: does trade explain the “Mezzogiorno effect”?

We use Italian regional data to answer the question whether trade affects within-country income differentials. In Italy, the more affluent Northern regions trade more with the rest of the world than the poorer ones in the Southern “Mezzogiorno” regions. Prima facie, there is a positive correlation between external trade and per capita income. Studying this relationship empirically requires taking into account the endogenous component of trade. We argue that panel cointegration models can complement instrumental variables techniques to account for the endogeneity of trade in a panel context. Both methods show a positive link between trade openness and the level of income per capita.     

A new look at the impact of U.S. import barriers on corporate profit expectations

A New Look at the Impact of U.S. Import Barriers on Corporate Profit Expectations. — The notion that industries benefit from protection is firmly grounded in trade theory. However, previous “event studies” measuring the impact of trade restrictions on stock prices reveal that shareholders expect no improvement in industry profits from protection. The implication is that barriers designed to promote industry adjustment are considered ineffective by equity holders. This investigation of U.S. “Escape Clause” cases shows that shareholders do expect protection to enhance profits, but not universally. Outcomes are linked to the type of trade measure selected, with industries protected by tariffs or global quotas faring better than those shielded by nonglobal “Orderly Marketing Agreements.”     

Aid-for-trade facilitation

‘Aid for Trade’ is an ongoing and high-profile discussion associated with the Doha negotiations of the World Trade Organization. It also relates to questions of how best to achieve the Millennium Development Goals. Questions remain, however, about whether foreign aid spent on trade facilitation increases trade flows of developing countries. Does it work differently from aid in general? Using detailed data on aid flows from the OECD, the analysis here estimates the relationship between specific types of aid and trade flows, both globally and of the aid recipients. The findings indicate that aid spent on promoting trade is positively associated with global trade. For most types of such aid-for-trade facilitation, it is relatively more strongly associated with recipient exports than their imports. In contrast ‘other’ types of aid are more strongly associated with recipient imports. Based on elasticities estimated over 16 years of trade and aid data for 40 donor countries and about 170 country trading pairs, our results suggest that a 1% increase in aid-for-trade facilitation (of about US220 million in 2008) correlates to about US 220 million in 2008) correlates to about US 290 million of additional exports from the aid receiving countries.     

Foreign direct investment, agglomerations, and demonstration effects: An empirical investigation

Previous studies have shown that the localisation of firms can be an important factor in attracting new foreign direct investment into a host country. The authors distinguish between “efficiency agglomerations” which arise as firms increase their efficiency by locating close to each other, and “demonstration effects” whereby existing firms send signals to new investors as to the reliability and attractiveness of the host country. They try to disentangle these two effects by examining the location of US firms in Ireland. They find that both sources of agglomerations have been important determinants of US firm entry into Ireland. JEL no. F23     

Using home-biased demand to test trade theories

Using Home-Biased Demand to Test Trade Theories. — This paper proposes a discriminating hypothesis that distinguishes between two paradigms of international trade: (1) constant returns and perfect competition (CRS-PC) and (2) increasing returns and monopolistic competition (IRS-MC). The discriminating hypothesis rests on the different degree of home bias among “consumers.” It predicts a positive relationship between a country’s share in world output and a country’s share in the world home-biased expenditure if the sector is IRS-MC and no relationship if the sector is CRS-PC. Accordingly, 7 sectors (covering 54.86 per cent of industrial output) of the eight countries under investigation were associated with the IRS-MC and 10 sectors (41.15 per cent) with the CRS-PC paradigm.     

Market Access Asymmetry in Food Trade

Using a bilateral trade equation derived from a monopolistic competition model, we investigate market access reciprocity in food trade among the United States, Canada, the European Union and Japan. We explore country- and industry-specific market access asymmetry through a border effect approach. Our findings reveal marked asymmetries in reciprocal border effects, both across countries and industries. Trade policy measures, particularly non-tariff barriers (NTBs), the degree of product differentiation and a ‘home bias’ in preferences, are important factors in explaining levels in border effects. Asymmetries in border effects are mainly explained by trade policies. JEL no.  F13, F14, Q17     

Learning-by-Exporting: Continuous Productivity Improvements or Capacity Utilization Effects? Evidence from Slovenian Firms

Following along the lines of a growing literature on the causal link between exporting and productivity, this paper analyzes the existence of “learning-by-exporting” using firm-level data for Slovenian manufacturing enterprises between 1994 and 2002. We fail to find conclusive evidence of learning-by-exporting. By matching new exporting firms to “sufficiently” similar non-exporters and using the difference-in-differences method on the matched pairs it is revealed that productivity improvements, although present, are far from permanent and tend to dissipate shortly after initial entry. Confronting the data on factor accumulation with TFP measures indicates that the perceived learning effects may in fact only be a consequence of increased capacity utilization brought about by the opening of an additional market. JEL no. D24, F12, F14     

Antidumping and foreign divestment: Japanese electronics multinationals in the EU

This paper explores the relationship between the closure of “antidumping jumping” manufacturing plants and the repeal of antidumping measures. Of 67 identified Japanese “antidumping jumping” production lines in the EU in 1990 only 31 remained in operation in 1999. Analysis of the probability of divestment for 209 Japanese plants in the broadly defined electronics industry shows that Japanese plants of manufacturing products for which antidumping duties had been repealed are significantly and substantially more likely to be divested. The results suggest that the potential positive effects of antidumping duties on host economies by inducing inward investment are in many cases short-lived and easily overestimated. JEL no. F23, F13, L11     

The roles of cultural and institutional distance in international trade: Evidence from China's trade with the Belt and Road countries

Cultural distance and institutional distance have been playing increasingly significant roles in international trade. Recently, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) proposed by China has drawn worldwide attention. This paper examines the roles of cultural distance and institutional distance in China's trade relationship with the Belt and Road (B&R) countries. We estimate the extended gravity model using bilateral trade data at product-level during 2002–2016 between China and 99 trading partners, 38 of which are along the Belt and Road. Using Poisson generalized estimating equations (GEE) econometric methods, we find that firstly, cultural distance and institutional distance inhibit China's bilateral trade with the Belt and Road countries. Secondly, China's bilateral trade with the B&R countries is more sensitive to the change of cultural distance than institutional distance by comparing their beta coefficients. Thirdly, compared to Asian countries on the Belt and Road, bilateral trade flows between China and European countries show less sensitivity to changes in cultural distance, except China's imports from its trading partners. While the trade effects of institutional distance show no difference between China's trade with European countries and Asian countries. Lastly, the announcement of BRI does reduce trade-inhibiting effect of cultural distance on China's trade with the Belt and Road countries, while increase China's exports sensitivity to institutional distance. This study finally suggests relevant cultural exchange driven by the BRI eventually assisting unimpeded trade and deepening the cooperation.     

Why Speed Doesn’t Kill: Learning to Believe in Disinflation

Central bankers generally prefer to reduce inflation gradually. We show that a central bank may try to convince the private sector of its commitment to price stability by choosing to reduce inflation quickly. We call this “teaching by doing”. We find that allowing for teaching by doing effects always speeds up the disinflation and leads to lower inflation persistence. So, we clarify why “speed” in the disinflation process does not necessarily “kill” in the sense of creating large output losses.     

Cultural dimensions of marketing strategies

Conclusion Culture marketing involves no new principles not found in marketing to the dominant superculture. It deserves special attention, however, because of the growing importance of subcultural markets such as the $64 billion United States market of 24 million black consumers, or of the massive global Third World market. It deserves special attention also because of the threat of alienation that may accrue from failure to communicate with consumers “in their own language.”     

Environmental Protection by One or Both Trading Partners in a Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson Model

In this Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson model, production of a pollutive good damages production of another good within the same country. Unilateral and bilateral shifts from laissez faire to Pigouvian policy are numerically simulated for cases of low emissions and a high volume of trade, high emissions and a high volume of trade, and finally, high emissions and a low volume of trade. A country can be worse off when it becomes Pigouvian and it can be worse off when its trading partner becomes Pigouvian. Nevertheless, a simple game theory version of the model suggests a race to the top, in which all countries become Pigouvian.     

International Trade, OECD Membership, and Religion

Transaction costs in trade gravity equation are proxied by the distance that separates two trading partners, under the assumption that the distance elasticity is the same across all trading partners. We show that distance elasticity, however, critically depends on whether trading partners are industrial countries (i.e., members of the OECD) or share same religion. These heterogeneities are both statistically and economically significant. For instance, expected trade flows are the largest when an OECD member trades with a non-member and both are non-religious. Expected trade flows fall as much as by 62.9% between two non-religious, non-OECD members. Expected bilateral trade drops by 48.1% when both countries in the pair are OECD members while one is Christian and the other is Islamic. Both religion and OECD membership significantly affect the typical transaction costs implied by the gravity equation. JEL Classification Number: F13