The price of poverty: The association between childhood poverty and adult income and education in Sweden, 1947–2015

Childhood poverty increases the likelihood of being poor as an adult. We know relatively little about this persistence of poverty in the past and whether it changed as modern welfare societies developed. This study both analyses determinants of childhood poverty and assesses the association between childhood poverty and economic outcomes in adulthood for men and women who grew up in southern Sweden, and who were followed to adulthood regardless of where in Sweden they resided. Poverty is measured in relative terms. Being raised by a single mother, foreign origin, and being raised in a context where the household head was not employed were important risk factors for childhood poverty. Growing up in relative poverty was in turn associated with low income and education in adulthood. Both the persistence and intensity of childhood poverty mattered, and so did the age during which poverty was experienced. Patterns were similar for men and women, and there was no consistent change over time as the Swedish welfare state expanded.     

Effect of Stress on Later-Life Health: Evidence from the Vietnam War Draft

This article contributes to the literature examining how stress during the early stages of life impacts later-life health using a novel proxy for stress: risk of military induction during the Vietnam War. The article estimates that an increase in induction risk in young adulthood is associated with higher rates of obesity, endocrine disease, and hypertension later in life. These findings do not appear to be cohort effects; these associations exist only for men who did not serve in the war, not for same-aged women. These results suggest stress experienced during early adulthood can have adverse health consequences later in life.     

The determinants of poverty dynamics in Indonesia: evidence from panel data

We use the ‘spell’ approach to identifying poverty and apply an ordered logit model to examine the determinants of poverty dynamics in Indonesia, categorising households as poor, transient poor (–), transient poor (+) or non-poor. Observing the National Socio-Economic Survey (Susenas) balanced-panel data sets of 2005 and 2007, we found that 28% of poor households are classified as chronically poor (that is, remaining poor in two periods) while 7% of non-poor households are vulnerable to being transient poor (–). Our estimations confirmed that the determinants of poverty dynamics in Indonesia are educational attainment, the number of household members, physical assets, employment status, health shocks, the microcredit program, access to electricity, and changes in employment sector, employment status and the number of household members. We also found that households in Java–Bali are more vulnerable to negative shocks than those outside Java–Bali.     

Geography and educational inequality in China

Since the 1980s, educational reforms in China have decentralized administration and finance and privatized costs. These changes have emerged in the context of rapid economic growth and rising regional economic disparities. The reforms have mobilized new resources in support of education, but they have also exacerbated regional disparities in funding for schools. Analyses of trends in school finance and expenditures have emerged, but detailed studies of the shifting ties between geography and educational outcomes in the population have not.Using 2000 census data on year and location of birth and educational attainment, we begin to address this gap. We compare the links between birth province and educational outcomes across 5-year birth cohorts to illuminate trends in region-based inequalities. Results show that the percent of variation in years of schooling explained by birth province declined for cohorts born through the early 1960s, and then increased thereafter.Additional analyses use a dissimilarity index to characterize the strength of the link between geography and access to each level of schooling. This index indicates that the link between geography and access to primary school has greatly increased across cohorts, as the few without access to primary school are ever more concentrated in poor areas. The link between birth province and access to subsequent levels of schooling shows mixed trends through cohorts born in the early 1960s: stability for junior high school and a weakening trend for senior high school and college. Thereafter, the dissimilarity index increased, substantially for junior high school and slightly for senior high school and college.Results attest to the enduring significance of geography as an educational stratifier in China. More broadly, results suggest the importance of regional inequalities in conditioning the relationship between development and educational stratification.     

Rural Poverty Dynamics and Impact of Intervention Programs upon Chronic and Transitory Poverty in Northern Ethiopia*

Abstract: Using a three‐year panel data set of rural households in the Tigray region of northern Ethiopia, we examine the dynamics of poverty and the impact of two intervention measures—the food for work (FFW) and the food security package (FSP) programs—upon poverty by disaggregating total poverty into its transient and chronic components. Poverty in the region is predominantly chronic. Results of matching estimators indicate that the FSP program has a significant negative effect on total and chronic poverty, but not on transient poverty. Households involved in the program have on average lower levels of total and chronic poverty than households not involved in the program. The FFW on the other hand does not significantly influence any of the three forms of poverty. Tertile regressions, however, reveal that the FFW benefits households in the richest and the middle tertiles.     

Assessing the Extent and Nature of Chronic Poverty in Low Income Countries: Issues and Evidence

Discussions of chronic poverty have mostly considered its monetary dimensions, with current evidence suggesting that such poverty is much more transient than chronic. But chronic poverty is a real and important phenomenon, potentially more important quantitatively than it first appears once account is taken of different methodological approaches and inevitable measurement difficulties. The chronic poor have distinctive characteristics, such as lack of assets or high dependency rates, which may account for their persistent poverty. The paper argues that it is also necessary to develop concepts of chronic poverty further, covering relevant nonmonetary dimensions and not just relying on panel data.     

Is Informal Job Experience of Youth Undermining their Labor-Market Prospects in Transition Economies?

The objective of the paper is to investigate if previous informal employment experience of youth affects later labor-market outcomes in transition economies. We consider the effects on employment, decent job and wages. Some theories suggest that previous informal job experience may extend informality later and negatively impact decent employment and wages, while others argue that informal jobs may provide training, networks and working attitudes to young workers hence improving their formal employment and wage potential. We rely on the newly-produced School to Work Transition Surveys for seven transition economies of Southeast Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States. Our results robustly suggest that early informality of youth is negative for the later labor-market outcomes. However, for the wage, there is limited evidence that the negative effect potentially turns positive for long informal job experiences. The negative effect of informal job on later outcomes is stronger for females, while any differences between the two regions of transition economies are neither systematic nor robust.     

Censored Quantile Regressions of Chronic and Transient Seasonal Poverty in Rwanda

It is crucial for social policy in Less Developed Countriesto identify correlates of poverty at the household level. Thishas been done in the literature by estimating household povertyequations typically with Tobit and Probit models. However, whenthe errors in these equations are non-normal and heteroscedastic,which is usually expected, these models deliver biased estimates.Using quarterly data from Rwanda in 1983, we reject the normalityand homoscedasticity assumptions for household chronic and transientlatent poverty equations. We treat this problem by estimatingcensored quantile regressions. Our results of censored quantileregressions and of inconsistent Tobit regressions are substantiallydifferent. However, in the case of chronic poverty the signsof the apparently significant coefficients are generally inagreement, while for seasonal transient poverty different variableshave significant effects for the two estimation methods. Oursecond contribution is to study, for the first time, correlatesof poverty indicators based on quarterly consumptions. Our resultsshow that in Rwanda different correlates are significant forchronic poverty and for transient seasonal poverty. The effectsof the main inputs (land and labour) are more important forthe chronic component of poverty than for the transient one.Household location and socio-demographic characteristics playimportant roles that are consistent with usual explanationsof poverty in the literature.     

When left-behind children become adults and parents: The long-term human capital consequences of parental absence in China

This study examines the long-term effects of childhood left-behind experience on human capital outcomes across two generations in China. Using data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), we find evidence that adults with left-behind experience in early life have fewer schooling years, lower cognitive test scores, a lower Big Five personality traits index, but a higher internal locus of control. Meanwhile, they are more likely to report underweight, chronic diseases, depression, and lower levels of perceived health and happiness. Our findings of the negative consequences on personality traits and health outcomes are robust to a battery of specification and validity tests. These effects also differ markedly by adults' gender, birth cohort, hukou status, and the characteristics of left-behind experience (i.e., type, timing, and duration). Further, our results also suggest a potential intergenerational transmission mechanism in which human capital loss is induced by one's early-life exposure to parental absence. Specifically, one's childhood left-behind experience is also inversely associated with their offspring's outcomes such as Big Five noncognitive skills, birth weight, and height-for-age z-score. Although adults with left-behind experience are inclined to spend more time with offspring compared with their non-left-behind counterparts, they also tend to have significantly poorer household socioeconomic outcomes and less offspring educational investment.     

The Great Depression and the rise of female employment: A new hypothesis

The life-cycle labor supply of women born at the turn of the 20th century diverged sharply from previous cohorts. Although they had similar participation rates in early adulthood, younger cohorts were significantly more likely to work at middle age. This paper documents a link between these changing patterns of female labor supply and the Great Depression. We find that the onset of the Great Depression led to an increase in young women's employment in 1930 via an added-worker effect. Cohorts induced into the workforce in the early 1930s had significantly higher employment rates through the 1940s and 1950s of up to 3 percentage points, suggesting a permanent impact of the Great Depression on women's lifecycle labor supply.     

Measuring poverty with noisy and corrected estimates of annual consumption: Evidence from Nigeria

An opportunity to improve measurement and modelling of poverty in Africa arises from recent intra‐year panel surveys that observe household consumption in post‐planting and post‐harvest periods. Observing the same household twice lets an intra‐year correlation be estimated, which can be used to form a corrected estimate of annual consumption. The usual approach surveys consumption for just one short period, like a week or month, and extrapolates to an annual total. This may adequately estimate mean annual consumption for samples spread over a year but overstates dispersion. The resulting noise in consumption estimates inflates measures of poverty and inequality and creates misclassification errors that bias logit and probit models of poverty determinants. This study uses data from the 2012/2013 Nigeria General Household Survey panel to show effects on poverty measures of using annual estimates extrapolated from short‐period surveys. With the corrected extrapolation method that uses intra‐year correlations to adjust for inflated variances, Nigeria's poverty headcount rate falls by one half. Hence, much of the poverty measured in cross‐sectional surveys is transient poverty, for which different policy interventions are needed than for alleviating chronic poverty.     

Ethnoracial Differences in Early Union Experiences Among Young Adult Women

This paper uses data from the 1997 cohort of National Longitudinal Study of Youth to examine racial differences in the first coresidential union experiences of young adult women in early adulthood. Young adults increasingly choose to delay marriage and opt to live with a significant other during their early adulthood years. Results from early studies of racial differences in relationship formation reported that Blacks had a higher probability that their first coresidential relationship was a cohabiting one despite a lower overall probability of being in a cohabiting relationship. Little is known about whether and how these early relationship experiences changed in the ensuing years, and the underlying causes for the racial differences in young adult union formation behaviors remain poorly understood. I use multivariate analyzes and decomposition techniques on a recent cohort of young women, between the ages of 12 and 18 in 1997, to examine the role of family background characteristics, sexual history, and economic and educational measures on the probability of an early coresidential relationship. I conclude with a brief examination of the fertility patterns surrounding that first union and the state of the union by age 24.     

Childhood health and sibling outcomes: Nurture Reinforcing nature during the 1918 influenza pandemic

This paper uses the 1918 influenza pandemic to test how household resources are reallocated in response to a health shock to one child. Using a new dataset linking census data on childhood household characteristics to adult outcomes from military enlistment records, I show that families with a child in utero during the pandemic shifted resources to the child's older siblings, leading to significantly higher educational attainments for these older siblings. These results suggest that the reallocation of household resources in response to a negative childhood health shock tended to reinforce rather than compensate for differences in endowments across children.     

Memory of famine: The persistent impact of famine experience on food waste behavior

The 1959–1961 Great Famine in China was one of the most devastating events in history and had long-term effects on economic behavior. This paper seeks to provide a novel explanation for heterogeneous food waste behaviors across age cohorts from the perspective of differing famine experiences. Based on 2004–2009 China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) data, this paper constructs a difference-in-difference estimator to explore the long-term effects of the early-life famine experience of the household head on household food waste behavior in later life. The results indicate that the more serious famine that the household head experienced in early life was, the less wasted food and lost calories per capita there were, especially for adolescence during the famine. The mechanism analysis shows that households whose heads experienced the 1959–1961 Great Famine in early life tend to save more than those whose head did not. The findings contribute to a better understanding of the formation of preference and the variation in household food waste behaviors across age cohorts.     

Pain of disasters: The educational cost of exogenous shocks evidence from Tangshan Earthquake in 1976

Based on a random sample from 1 percent population survey data of 2005, this paper studies the impacts of Tangshan Earthquake on the educational attainment and subsequent labor market outcomes of affected cohorts using the methodology of difference-in-differences model and the local average treatment effect interpretation of instrumental variables technique. We find that the schooling years of the cohorts potentially affected by Tangshan Earthquake is 14%–21% of a year of schooling lower than the non-earthquake cohorts, which can be considered as the shortterm educational cost of Tangshan Earthquake. The rate of returns to years of schooling for the earthquake cohorts is 20.93%–27.85%. The earthquake leads 3.51%–4.77% loss of average income through the reduction of schooling years. A loss of 0.30%–0.41% of GDP in 2005 can be attributed to the lower educational attainment of the earthquake cohorts, which can be considered as the long-term educational cost of Tangshan Earthquake.     

The long-term effects of automatic grade promotion on child development

Grade retention is a common practice in many countries despite the fact that the evidence for its influence on child development is mixed. In 2006, China introduced a new rule that explicitly prohibited grade repetition during the compulsory education period. Exploiting the staggered introduction of this policy across provinces and applying a flexible difference-in-differences strategy, we analyze the causal effects of the reform on various student outcomes, including school completion and cognitive skills, mental health and self-confidence in early adulthood. The results indicate that automatic grade promotion hurts students' educational development, especially for boys and for children with less-educated mothers. On the other hand, however, the reform indeed improved mental health, as noted by the proponents of social promotion. More importantly, we find that all the policy impacts are concentrated solely among students exposed to the reform in an early grade, particularly 1st-3rd grade. The results further indicate that removing the “threat” of grade retention results in a decrease in study time in the long run, which we interpret as a potential mechanism.     

What Does a High School Diploma Get You? Employment, Race, and the Transition to Adulthood

We compare the employment of African American and white youth as they transition to adulthood from age 18 to 22, focusing on high school graduates and high school dropouts who did not attend college. Using OLS and hazard models, we analyze the relative employment rates, and employment consistency, stability, and timing, controlling for a number of factors including family income, academic aptitude, prior work experience, and neighborhood poverty. We find white high school graduates work significantly more than all other youth on most measures; African American high school graduates work as much and sometimes less than white high school dropouts; African American dropouts work significantly less than all other youth. Findings further suggest that the improved labor market participation associated with a high school diploma is higher over time for African Americans than for white youth.     

The Changing Benefits of Early Work Experience

We examine whether the benefits of high school work experience have changed over the last 20 years by comparing effects for the 1979 and 1997 cohorts of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. Our main specifications suggest that the future annual earnings benefits of working 20 h per week in the senior year of high school have fallen from 17.4% for the earlier cohort, measured in 1987–1989, to 12.1% for the later cohort, in 2008–2010. The gains have diminished by similar amounts for men and women but much more substantially for those who do not later attend college than for those who do. We further show that most of the differential between cohorts can be attributed to the way that high school employment is related to subsequent adult work experience and occupational attainment.     

Family Income and Educational Attainment: A Review of Approaches and Evidence for Britain

It is widely recognized that, on average, children from poorerbackgrounds have worse educational outcomes than their better-offpeers. There is less evidence on how this relationship has changedover time and, indeed, what exactly leads to these inequalities.In this paper we demonstrate that the correlation between familybackground (as measured by family income) and educational attainmenthas been rising between children born in the late 1950s andthose born two decades later. We then consider the extent towhich these associations are due to the causal effects of incomerather than the result of other dimensions of family background.We review the approaches taken to answering this question, drawingmainly on the US literature, and then present our own evidencefrom the UK, discussing the plausible range for the true impactof income on education. Our results indicate that income hasa causal relationship with educational attainment.