Balance of payments deficits,the adjustment cost and the optimum level of international reserves

Zusammenfassung Zahlungsbilanzdefizite, die Ausgleichskosten und die optimale H?he der internationalen Reserven. — Die Kosten des Ausgleichs eines Zahlungsbilanzdefizits durch eine Politik der Einkommenskürzung, eine Abwertung und induzierte kompensatorische Kapitalzuflüsse werden für eine Auswahl von fünfzehn L?ndern gesch?tzt. In dieser Stichprobe sind die Abwertungskosten und die Kosten von induzierten Kapitalzuflüssen niedriger als die Kosten einer reinen Einkommensdrosselungspolitik. Für Kanada, D?nemark und Südafrika stellt die Abwertung die billigste Anpassungspolitik dar. Das bedeutet, da\ es für diese L?nder vorteilhaft ist, flexible Wechselkurse zu haben. Anschlie\end wird die optimale H?he der internationalen Reserven auf der Grundlage der Formel von H. R. Heller berechnet; sie ist dann erreicht, wenn die marginalen Kosten des Ausgleichs des Zahlungsbilanzdefizits durch eine der drei Arten der Anpassungspolitik, die in dem Aufsatz beschrieben werden, gleich sind den Alternativkosten, die durch das Halten von internationalen Reserven entstehen. Die Verfasser stellen abschlie\end fest, da\ in ihrer Stichprobe die entwickelten L?nder, deren W?hrungen keine Leitw?hrungen sind, überschu\reserven besitzen, w?hrend die Entwicklungsl?nder über weniger Reserven verfügen, als optimal w?re.

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Résumé Les déficits de balance des paiements, les coüts d’ajustement et le niveau optimal des réserves internationales. — Sont estimés, pour un échantillon de quinze pays choisis, les coüts de l’ajustement d’un déficit de balance des paiements, ajustement au moyen d’une politique de réduction du revenu, d’une dévaluation et d’un afflux induit de capitaux compensatoires. Dans cet échantillon, les coüts de dévaluation et les coüts de l’afflux induit de capitaux sont plus bas que les coüts d’une pure politique de réduction du revenu. Pour le Canada, le Danemark et l’Union Sud-Africaine, la dévaluation représente la politique d’ajustement la moins coüteuse. Cela veut dire qu’il est avantageux pour ces pays de maintenir un système de cours des changes flexibles. Ensuite, le niveau optimal des réserves internationales est calculé sur la base de la formule de H. R. Heller. Ce niveau est atteint quand — au moyen d’une des trois politiques d’ajustement décrites dans cet article — le coüt marginal de l’ajustement du déficit de balance des paiements égale les coüts alternatifs d’une détention de réserves internationales. Finalement, les auteurs constatent que, dans leur échantillon, les pays développés, dont les monnaies ne sont pas des monnaies clef, possèdent un surplus de réserves, tandis que les réserves des pays á développer sont en dessous du niveau optimal.

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Resumen Déficit de balanza de pagos, el coste de compensatión y el volumen óptimo de réservas internationales. — El coste de compensación de un déficit de balanza de pagos mediante retractión de ingresos, devaluatión cambiaria o influjo de capital inducido se estima para una muestra de quince paises. Para esta muestra son los costos de devaluatión y de influjo de capital inducido menores que el coste de un pura retraction de ingresos. Para el Canadá, Dinamarca y Suráfrica la devaluation résulta ser la forma de ajuste más económica. Esto significa que séria ventajoso para estos paises tener tipos de cambio flexibles. A continuatión se calcula el volumen óptimo de réservas internacionales mediante la fórmula de H. R. Heller; el volumen es óptimo cuandoel coste marginal de compensaci?n del déficit de balanza de pagos mediante una de las très formas de ajuste, que se discuten en este artfculo, es igual a los costos alternatives que implica el mantenimiento de réservas internacionales. Los autores subrayan que en la muestra los paises desarrollados, cuyas monedas no son monedas de réserva, tienen réservas excesivas, mientras que los paises en desarrollo disponen de menos réservas de lo que séria óptimo.

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Riassunto Deficit délia bilancia dei pagamento, i costi di compensazione e le altezze ottimali délie riserve internazionali. — I costi délia compensazione di un deficit délia bilancia dei pagamenti per mezzo di una politica délia riduzione dei redditi, di una svalutazione ed afflussi compensativi indotti di capitale vengono valutati per una selezione di quindici Paesi. In questa prova a caso, i costi di svalutazione e quelli di afflussi indotti di capitale sono più bassi dei costi di una pura politica di strozzatura dei redditi. Per il Canadá, la Danimarca e il Sudafrica, la svalutazione rappresenta la politica di adattamento più a buon mercato. Ció significa che per questi Paesi è vantaggioso avère cambi flessibili. Successivamente viene calcolata l’altezza ottimale délie riserve internazionali sulla base délia formula di H. R. Heller; essa è allora raggiunta quando i costi marginali délia compensazione del deficit della bilancia dei pagamenti mediante uno dei tre modi della politica di adattamento che sono descritti nell’articolo sono uguali ai costi alternativi che sorgono per il mantenimento di riserve internazionali. Gli autori constatant) infine che nella loro prova a caso i Paesi sviluppati, le cui valute non sono monete guida, possiedono eccedenze di riserve, mentre i Paesi in sviluppo dispongono di minori riserve di quanto sia ottimale.

     

Empowering communities: The experience of the church urban fund

This article seeks to report on ways of empowering local communities who are suffering multiple deprivation. It is set within the context created by the requirement for partnership in the submission of funding applications to City Challenge and the Single Regeneration Budget. This exploration draws upon an evaluation of the Church Urban Fund undertaken by the authors in 1993-4 funded by the Department of the Environment, the Church Urban Fund, the Paul S. Cadbury Trust and the Wates Foundation (Farnell et al, 1994).     

The global monetaristic variant of the monetary approach to the balance of payments: an empirical study of the Netherlands

Summary The global monetaristic variant of the monetary approach in which the characteristic of the balance of payments being an essentially monetary phenomenon comes to the fore most strongly has been tested. Criticism of a theoretical nature regarding the monetary approach appears not to hold good for this variant. From the characteristics a reduced-form equation for the rate of growth of the stock of international monetary reserves has been derived. Moreover, simultaneous-equation systems have been developed to give substance to a possible mutual influencing of the variables in the money stock equation resulting from a sterilization policy. Estimations lead to a rejection of this variant for the Netherlands.My thanks are due to the members of the International Economics Section of Groningen State University for their comments and suggestions.     

Trade policies,macroeconomic adjustment,and manufactured exports: The Latin American experience

Conclusions Changes in trade policy, especially in quantitative import restrictions, have played an important role in the macroeconomic adjustment in all six countries. For long periods, trade policy tightenings and occasional liberalizations were the main instruments of balance-of-payments policy. Most tightenings were preceded by a deterioration in the current account. In several cases tight import restrictions had adverse effects on output and, hence, on investment and growth. Since changes in trade policies, referred to here as episodes, were usually part of a policy package, it is difficult to isolate the effects of the episodes themselves. Sometimes they have been followed by current account improvements and other times by deteriorations.     

The Rise and Decline of an International Zinc and Lead Cartel, 1945–75

From the late 1940s to the early 1970s major firms in the international zinc and lead industries organized cartels to stabilize the prices of the metals at above market levels. The attempts of the Zinc Producers Group and the Lead Producers Group to secure above-market-level prices met with limited success because of divisions within each cartel over strategy, the large number of producers and source countries, and the lack of international market power and comprehensive vertical integration. Limited barriers to entry, external competition, and the impact of anti-monopoly and restrictive trade practices legislation further weakened the cartels.     

The german inflation 1914–1923 Carl-Ludwig Holtfrerich New York: Walter de Gruyter, 1986, 369 pp.

The views expressed are those of the author and are not to be read as the views of either the Congressional Research Service or the Library of Congress.     

国际收支顺差、外商投资与我国房地产投资的失衡分析

全球金融海啸以前,我国经济失衡的基本特征是：国际收支顺差透过储备资产引发基础货币供给增加,导致国内房地产投资过热。文章通过对国际收支顺差、外商投资与国内房地产投资之间关系进行实证分析,认为国际收支顺差与外商投资是我国房地产投资过热的主要原因,并依此提出扭转经济对出口与投资依赖的格局、增强人民币汇率弹性、引导外资流向、规范管理房地产投资等标本兼治的政策建议。     

International experience in the organization of science, with special reference to the USA

The organization of academic science in the United States and its relationship with the economy and private business are analyzed. The extent to which organizational measures taken and methods used are adequate to the actual trends of the evolution of world science is examined. It is suggested that some international experience can be borrowed for the benefit of reform of Russian science.     

Inflation,interest rates,and the balance of payments during a financial reform: The case of Argentina

In order to evaluate the impact of recent financial reforms on the Argentine economy, this paper presents the results of estimating a small, monthly structural model of the Argentine economy which emphasizes the linkages between the financial system, inflation and the balance of payments. The results are used to examine the portfolio interest rate elasticities of both the financial and non-financial sectors, the determinants of the real levels of and spread between the loan and deposit interest rates, and the responsiveness of inflation and the balance of payments to various policy measures.     

国际货币政策溢出效应、人民币汇率与中国贸易差额——基于TVP-VAR-SV模型的动态影响关系分析

文章应用贝叶斯框架下的TVP-VAR-SV模型分析了金融危机以来美、日、欧等主要国际货币区的货币政策(文章简称为国际货币政策)变化对中国经济溢出效应的传导机制。我们发现国际货币政策在方向和力度方面的调整和变化能够通过其与中国的利率之差表现出来,进而对人民币汇率以及中国贸易差额产生溢出效应。这种溢出效应具有显著的时变特征:首先,从影响的程度来看,国际货币政策在推出或退出等方向性变化时溢出效应尤其明显;其次,从时间上来看,国际货币政策的变化会对人民币汇率和中国贸易差额在不同时期造成不同程度的影响,人民币汇率对中外利差的变化非常敏感,而人民币汇率和贸易差额的变化也会引起中外利差随时间不同程度的变化,但是人民币汇率对中国贸易差额的影响呈现出显著的倒J曲线效应,显示汇率弹性理论在中国并不成立。     

Unit Labour Costs, International Competitiveness, and Exports: The Case of Senegal

Despite some favourable conditions and a number of policy reforms,Senegal's participation in the global economy remains tenuous.This paper uses a Ricardian framework to study Senegal's internationalcompetitiveness in manufacturing. Wages, productivity and unitlabour costs in Senegal are compared to those of other developingcountries. Senegal's labour productivity has grown much moreslowly than in successful emerging economies. The 1994 devaluationof the CFA franc has dramatically improved Senegal's internationalcompetitiveness but further improvements in competitivenessdepend on productivity growth given the constraint of the fixedexchange rate. We find a significant effect of relative unitlabour costs on exports, particularly of manufactured goods.Sustained export-led growth, however, requires additional structuralreforms.     

Making America poorer: The cost of labor law Morgan O. Reynolds Washington,DC: Cato Institute, 1987, 218 pp.

Conclusion None of the above suggests that Reynolds is incorrect in finding monopoly power in unions; neither is it suggested that labor relations law should not be considered as one source of that power. Reynolds is correct on both counts. However, his study is incomplete. There are additional sources which should also be identified and evaluated.Making America Poorer presents viewpoints held by some economists, some business groups, and some segments of the public. These views will be part of any national debate. The author is grateful to Jack E. Adams for many helpful comments.     

The circulating medium of exchange in colonial Pennsylvania, 1729–1775: new estimates of monetary composition, performance, and economic growth

Market transaction data are used to estimate the quantity of specie in circulation. This estimate is used to provide the first comprehensive measure of a colony's money supply and, along with data on population and prices, to retest the quantity theory of money and measure output growth using the equation of exchange. Output growth is found to depend on periodization and the extent that rising commercialization increased the velocity of circulation. Specie was becoming relatively less scarce as the Revolution approached, and movements in specie and paper currency both offset and reinforced each other depending on the period of analysis. (JEL N11, N21, E42, E51)     

The English monetary economy,c. 973–1100: the contribution of single‐finds1

A body of nearly 2,000 English finds of individual coins minted c. 973–1100 is surveyed as evidence for the scale and form of the monetary economy. A long‐term view indicates that this was a period of expansion in coin use, although growth in this area remained limited compared to the later middle ages, or even the eighth century. Within the eleventh century single‐finds suggest more specific developments, including a decline in coin use after the Norman Conquest, and substantial short‐term fluctuations related to various economic and monetary factors. Comparison with estimates of coin production suggests a general trend for more of mints' output to enter domestic circulation after c. 1030/40, though this need not solely reflect an increase in monetization. These chronological changes are compared with the pattern of circulation within England. Overall, the kingdom enjoyed a unified currency which did not see marked localization of coin circulation. Parts of northern England were less integrated with the south, but not so far as to suggest active exclusion of non‐local coin. More striking was a general trend for both production and circulation to be concentrated in the east and the south.