Short and Long Effects of Productivity on Unemployment

Okun’s (1962) seminal paper is an important study on economic growth and unemployment but a detailed exploration of the effect of productivity growth on unemployment has been left aside. Yet, the relationship between productivity growth and unemployment has been debated since long. In this paper we present stylized facts on the link between productivity growth and unemployment for the short and long run, and present model variants that demonstrate that in the short run productivity growth may increase unemployment while in the long run the relationship between productivity growth and unemployment are likely to co-vary negatively. Using US data, empirically we decompose the time series of unemployment rate and productivity growth into long run and short run components and show empirical evidence that the long run and short run components co-vary as predicted by some theories.     

Can We Still Lean Against the Wind?

In an overlapping generations model without financial frictions, Gali (Am Econ Rev 104(3):721–752, 2014) observed that a ‘leaning against the wind’ monetary policy is likely to aggravate the fluctuations in the bubble. He found that optimal monetary policy in such an economy must strike a balance between stabilization of the bubble and stabilization of aggregate demand. This paper extends Gali (Am Econ Rev 104(3):721–752, 2014)’s model by introducing various financial frictions in the bubbly economy with a Samuelson 2-period overlapping agents and examine how ‘leaning against the wind’ macro-prudential policies like capital adequacy affect the size and volatility of bubble, inflation and aggregate demand. While the results of the model with financial frictions vindicate Gali (Am Econ Rev 104(3):721–752, 2014) that a leaning against the wind monetary policy generates a larger volatility in the bubble than a policy of benign neglect, the paper finds that minimisation of bubble volatility requires an active macro-prudential policy. It is also observed that stronger interest rate response of monetary policy to the bubble necessitates a stronger macroprudential response possibly to absorb the excess volatility generated by the monetary policy. However, the paper also finds that tightening macroprudential policy parameter beyond a threshold value may encourage banks to take more risks and increase credit supply, aggravating the bubble in the process. With respect to macroprudential policy, there is no conflict between stabilization of current aggregate demand and stabilization of future aggregate demand and both call for a strong macroprudential response, at least until the macroprudential parameter attains the threshold value, although the conflict between the two objectives persists with respect to monetary policy as in Gali (Am Econ Rev 104(3):721–752, 2014). Empirical verification of the provisioning cost channel through structural vector autoregression confirm that a positive provisions shock can contract asset bubbles by restricting credit, output and a delayed marginal response of interest rate spreads.     

Do Trade Unions Deteriorate International Competitiveness? Reconciliation of the Discrepancy Between Theory and Practice

Brander and Spencer (Journal of International Economics 24:217–234, 1988) and Mezzetti and Dinopoulos (Journal of International Economics 31:79–100, 1991) provide different theoretical viewpoints on the following issue: Do trade unions deteriorate international competitiveness? Some discrepancies have been found to exist between their arguments and empirical findings. This paper attempts to provide plausible explanations and solutions to reconcile these discrepancies.     

Ludwig Von Mises’ Neoclassical Analysis of Dumping

The paper explores similarity in the analysis of dumping by Ludwig von Mises, which he labels as margin monopoly, in Human Action: A Treatise on Economics (1949), and by Joan Robinson in The Economics of Imperfect Competition (1933). Mises, though, does not admit to similarity with Robinson, and five reasons are suggested why he was unwilling to acknowledge Robinson. Robinson’s analysis is neoclassical, and so is that of Mises, which is an anomaly for Mises, an Austrian economist who generally focuses on activity in disequilibrium.     

Who Bears the Burden of Social Security Contributions in Germany? Evidence from 35 Years of Administrative Data

This paper provides evidence on the question of who bears the burden of social security contributions (SSC) in Germany over a long-term horizon. Following Alvaredo et al. (De Econ, 2017) we exploit kinks in the budget set generated by a drop in the marginal SSC rate at earnings caps for health and long-term care insurance. These concave kinks lead to discontinuities in the distributions of gross earnings, net earnings, or labor costs which—in the absence of labor supply responses—are informative about economic incidence. Administrative data for West Germany from 1975 to 2010 facilitate a comprehensive incidence analysis. Finding no evidence for labor supply responses and no significant discontinuities in gross earnings distributions, we conclude that neither employers nor employees shift a substantial part of their SSC burden. These results are consistent over the whole time period and hold for several robustness checks corroborating previous findings for Germany. A small trend towards a slight increase in the SSC burden for employees is not statistically significant.     

An SVAR Approach to Evaluation of Monetary Policy in India: Solution to the Exchange Rate Puzzles in an Open Economy

Following the exchange-rate paper by Kim and Roubini (J Monet Econ 45(3):561–586, 2000), we revisit the questions on monetary policy, exchange rate delayed overshooting, the inflationary puzzle, and the weak monetary transmission mechanism; but we do so for the open Indian economy. We further incorporate a superior monetary measure, the aggregation-theoretic Divisia monetary aggregate. Our paper confirms the efficacy of the Kim and Roubini (J Monet Econ 45(3):561–586, 2000) contemporaneous restriction, customized for the Indian economy, especially when compared with recursive structure, which is damaged by the price puzzle and the exchange rate puzzle. The importance of incorporating correctly measured money into the exchange rate model is illustrated, when we compare models with no-money, simple-sum monetary measures, and Divisia monetary measures. Our results are confirmed in terms of impulse response, variance decomposition analysis, and out-of-sample forecasting. In addition, we do a flip-flop variance decomposition analysis, finding two important phenomena in the Indian economy: (i) the existence of a weak link between the nominal-policy variable and real-economic activity, and (ii) the use of inflation-targeting as a primary goal of the Indian monetary authority. These two main results are robust, holding across different time period, dissimilar monetary aggregates, and diverse exogenous model designs.     

Is Foreign Technological Advance Harmful in the Melitz Model?

Foreign technological advance unambiguously reduces home welfare in a popular variant of the Melitz (Econometrica 71(6):1695–1725, 2003) model that assumes the presence of a costlessly traded homogeneous (outside) good (Demidova in Int Econ Rev 49(4):1437–1462, 2008). The present paper shows that this result is sensitive to the presence of the outside good and is, in fact, reversed in its absence: foreign technological advance always improves home welfare in the Melitz model without the outside good. Improvement in home welfare occurs via changes in the numbers and prices of domestic and imported varieties. For quantitative analysis of welfare effects, we calibrate an international trade model for the United States and its major trading partners. US is found to gain less from foreign technological improvements than its trading partners from US improvements. In either case, the magnitude of gains is modest.     

South Africa’s Economic Transformation Since 1994: What Influence has the National Democratic Revolution (NDR) Had?

When the African National Congress (ANC) became the democratic government of South Africa in 1994, it faced the challenge of transforming the economy. How this was to be done, however, revolved around two divergent views of the National Democratic Revolution (NDR) which forms the underlying ideology or glue that binds together the Tripartite Alliance comprising the ANC, the South African Communist Party (SACP) and the Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU), the largest workers’ union in the country. Transformation could be achieved either radically through measures such as nationalisation where political control would be transposed into economic power, or via a more liberal route involving the promotion of macro-economic development and the growth of company earnings. This article investigates how the ANC government has sought to bring about the much-needed transformation by providing summary analyses of the following macro-economic policies: the Reconstruction and Development Programme (RDP), the Growth, Employment and Redistribution (GEAR) strategy, the Accelerated and Shared Growth Initiative - South Africa (ASGISA), the New Growth Path (NGP) and the National Development Plan (NDP). Evidence suggests that while the NDR promised radical results, the economic transformation that has been taking place in South Africa since 1994 has been driven largely by neo-liberal principles. This is in contrast to what the ANC claims in various policy documents and what various scholars, such as Jeffery (2010:5) and Venter (2012), have also claimed. As South Africa’s economic fortunes have declined in recent years in the face of mounting external pressures and internal policy uncertainty, this deviation from the original ideology and plan is causing significant discord in the country.     

Consumption Behavior,Annuity Income and Mortality Risk of Retirees

Previous empirical studies have found that individuals do not draw down their assets after retirement which is at odds with the predictions of a simple life cycle model without uncertainty. Hurd (Econometrica 57(4):779–813, 1989; Mortality risk and consumption by couples, 1999) explains such saving behavior of retired singles and couples by adding lifetime uncertainty to the simple life cycle model. We tested whether predictions about consumption during retirement of this extended life cycle model hold for a sample of older Americans. We used data from the Health and Retirement Study supplemented with data from the Consumption and Activities Mail Survey. In line with theory we found that, on average, total consumption is greater than their annuity income after retirement and that this difference increases with the level of initial wealth. For older singles but not for couples our results suggest that, as predicted by the extended theoretical model of Hurd, the on average negative consumption growth decreases with higher mortality rates.     

Determinants of Housing Prices and Bubble Detection: Evidence from Seven Advanced Economies

This paper provides empirical evidence on the relationship between residential property prices and the business cycle for seven advanced Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development economies over the period 2002–2015 using quarterly data. To this end, panel data and time series methodologies are adopted as a means of providing a contextual framework on the extant relationship. The panel methodological framework explores the interaction between economic fundamentals and financial variables while the use of time series methodologies developed by Phillips et al. (2011 and 2015) provide novel evidence on the detection of property price bubbles that have been manifested in each individual country of the sample. In particular, the short-run dynamic panel framework provides a robust exploratory platform thus, shedding light on the determinants of property prices (i.e. real gross domestic product, bank credit growth, long-term bond yields and real effective exchange rate) whilst the bubble detection methodologies provide evidence of the impact of credit-driven economies on the propagation of housing booms which can serve as warning signals of the potential formation of housing bubbles.     

Estimating sectoral product quality under quality heterogeneity

This paper estimates product quality at the sectoral level using data from a panel of twelve manufacturing sectors in nineteen OECD countries during the years 1995–2006. The author first derives a gravity model from a firm-heterogeneity model of trade, then measures product quality as the residual of the gravity model. In estimating the gravity model, the author employs the two-step procedure of Helpman et al. (Q J Econ 123(2):441–487, 2008) to correct for biases caused by selection in trade and firm heterogeneity. When aggregated into the country level, the used overall quality metrics do not systematically differ from Hallak and Schott’s (Q J Econ 126(1):417–474, 2011). In line with existing literature, sectoral quality estimates are found positively correlated with sectoral unit prices as well as countries’ income per capita. And the quality gap between rich and poor countries is more pronounced in capital- and skill-intensive sectors. In addition, the autor finds beta- and sigma-convergence in sectoral product quality across countries.     

Portfolio Implications of Cointegration Between Labor Income and Dividends

This paper analyzes the implications of cointegration between labor income and dividends for the optimal portfolio weight for stocks. In a recent paper, Benzoni et al. (J Finance 62:2123–2167, 2007) claim that, as a result of cointegration, the optimal weight in stocks may be smaller for young investors than for older investors. This contradicts the traditional life-cycle models which typically imply portfolio weights that decrease with age. This paper shows that when stock returns are affected by other factors than dividend growth, for example due to time-varying discount rates, the portfolio implications of cointegration are much less severe. In a realistically calibrated model, the life-cycle pattern for the portfolio weight of stocks is flat, except for very young investors.     

The aggregate exports-GDP relation under the prism of infrequent trend breaks and multi-horizon causality

This paper re-examines the relationship between exports and economic growth in OECD countries. We apply the multi-horizon causality method developed by Dufour et al. (J Econ 132(2):337–362, 2006) for the first time, taking into account the possibility of infrequent structural trend breaks. Econometric techniques that avoid the circular problem when testing for segmented trends and unit roots have been employed along with a hybrid estimator of break location. The empirical evidence indicates that there is a unidirectional causal relationship from exports to economic growth for Finland, Germany, and the United States in the short run horizon, and directly in the cases of Austria and Ireland. We verify a direct causal relation from economic growth to real exports in France, Luxembourg and Portugal in various continuous horizons. Bidirectional causal relations between exports and economic growth were detected in Greece and Norway.     

The London Monetary and Economic Conference of 1933 and the End of the Great Depression

In this paper I analyze the London Monetary and Economic Conference of 1933, an almost forgotten episode in U.S. monetary history. I study how the Conference shaped dollar policy during the second half of 1933 and early 1934. I use daily data to investigate the way in which the Conference and related policies associated to the gold standard affected commodity prices, bond prices, and the stock market. My results show that the Conference itself did not impact commodity prices or the stock market. However, it had a small effect on bond prices. I do find that the events associated with the abandonment of the gold standard impacted prices in a significant way, even before the actual monetary and currency channels were at work. These results are consistent with the “change in regime” hypothesis of Sargent (1983).     

Cheaper and More Haircuts After VAT Cut? Evidence from the Netherlands

We study the effect of the reduction in the VAT rate on hairdresser services from 17.5 to 6% in the Netherlands in January 2000. Following Kosonen (J Public Econ 131:87–100, 2015), we use differences-in-differences to estimate the effects of this reform, with beauty salons as the main control group. In our preferred specification, we find close to full pass-through of the VAT cut into lower prices. However, we find no statistically or economically significant effect on the volume of sales or employment.     

Exchange Rate Returns and External Adjustment: Evidence from Switzerland

This paper studies the predictive power of external imbalances for exchange rate returns. We focus on Switzerland, a very open economy where exchange rate movements have a strong effect on external imbalances through valuation effects and trade flows. Using a simple modification of the Gourinchas and Rey (J Polit Econ 115(4):665–703, 2007) approach to make their approximation applicable to Switzerland, we find that measures of deviations from trends in Swiss net foreign assets and net exports help to forecast Swiss franc nominal effective exchange rate movements, both in and out of sample.     

Macroeconomic effects of financial stress and the role of monetary policy: a VAR analysis for the euro area

This paper analyses an otherwise standard macro-financial VAR model for the euro area that includes - apart from conventional measures of output, inflation and monetary policy - a composite indicator of systemic financial stress, namely the CISS index, and total assets of the ECB balance sheet capturing the stance of unconventional monetary policy. I find that the CISS contributes significantly to the dynamics of the macroeconomy and exerts a strong influence on monetary policy when looking at both policy rates and the ECB balance sheet. The significance of the CISS appears robust to the inclusion of a broad set of real and financial control variables. Based on tests of direct versus indirect (Granger-)causality patterns proposed in Hsiao (1982), I also find that unlike unconventional policy as measured by ECB balance sheet growth, the policy rate does not seem to react directly to variations in financial stress but rather indirectly through the impact of financial stress on macroeconomic conditions. These different patterns of reaction are broadly consistent with the ECB’s “separation principle”. The estimated effects of the ECB’s standard and non-standard policy measures on inflation and economic growth are moderate, although an easier stance in both policy tools helps calm down financial stress.     

EU Enlargement and the New Goods Margin in Austrian Trade

Using the methodology developed in Kehoe and Ruhl (J Polit Econ 121(2):358–392, 2013), I measure the change in the extensive, or new goods, margin of trade between Austria and the ten new entrants to the European Union in 2004. On average, the new goods account for 56 % of the bilateral trade flow after enlargement. A time series measure shows growth in the new goods margin coincides with the period surrounding the 2004 enlargement, which provides evidence on the importance of the role played by the new goods margin in the growth in trade during a trade liberalization.     

Volatility spillover effects in interbank money markets

Using daily data from 2006 to 2015, this paper applies alternative multivariate GARCH models and a modified version of the spillover index methodology proposed by Diebold and Yilmaz (Int J Forecast 28(1):57–66, 2012) to test the existence of shock and volatility contagion effects across interbank money markets. Overall, we find evidence that money markets are highly interrelated, exhibiting dynamic cross market effects. Moreover, we emphasize the pertinence of conditional covariances and we show that volatility spillovers are time-varying and very responsive to the major economic events, increasing in periods of higher turbulence, which reinforces the importance of closely monitoring the evolution of money markets.     

A model of trade,task offshoring and social insurance

The purpose of this paper is to study the role of social insurance design in a comparative-advantage model of offshoring and trade. To do so, we incorporate social insurance into a modified version of the Grossman and Rossi-Hansberg (Am Econ Rev 98(5):1978–1997, 2008) model by formalizing its administrative, compensation, cost, labor-supply and productivity effects. The compensation and productivity effects, which are novel, give rise to important offshoring and trade implications that can contribute to explain how social insurance provision can be sustained under globalization pressure and why similar globalization pressure can lead to different skill premia developments in Western economies.