Royal African Company Share Prices during the South Sea Bubble

Price bubbles provide a unique opportunity to test whether investors act rationally and have sufficient knowledge of the economic environment in which they trade. We focus our attention on the 1720 South Sea bubble episode as experienced by a company not involved in governmental debt financing—the Royal African Company. Following the example of the South Sea Company, the Royal African Company lent its funds to equityholders at a preferential rate. Recognizing this benefit along with the announced dividends explains a large portion of the bubble. Furthermore, the unexplained residual does not behave like an exploding bubble, casting doubt that speculative excess motivated market participants in 1720. Our findings are indeed consistent with investor rationality, and the unexplained residual suggests that we are missing information that was available to the British financial market in 1720.     

中国南海安全的战略思考

文章从"海洋观和安全观"、"地位和作用"、"海洋强国和南海强国"、"战略统筹"、"中国南海战略"、"立法"、"维权博弈"、"挑战和机遇"等八个方面,对中国南海安全进行了系统论述,提出了一些维护中国南海主权、确保中国南海安全的新思考、新思路、新观念、新观点。研究认为,中国南海安全态势日趋紧张、复杂多变,需要从战略的高度来运筹中国南海安全,需要从建设南海强国的角度来统筹中国南海安全。文章建议,将中国南海作为维护中国国家海洋主权和安全的实验区和示范区。     

融资租赁出租人初始直接费用的国际比较研究

为规范我国租赁业务的核算,2006年颁布了《企业会计准则第21号—租赁》准则和准则指南,财政部及时组织专家编写了准则讲解,它们进一步完善了我国租赁业发展必需的政策支柱,推动了我国租赁的核算和信息披露的国际趋同。但对其中融资租赁出租人初始直接费用的确认方法,准则及讲解中均将其作为应收融资租赁款的单独计加项目;另外租赁投资净额中没有包括初始直接费用。这对理论和实务中的理解带来一定的困难,也与国际会计准则第17号租赁准则的处理不同。本文就融资租赁出租人初始直接费用的确认与计量提出自己的看法。     

Sudden Stops and Current Account Reversals: Potential Macroeconomic Consequences for South Africa

South Africa is one of the emerging market countries that have received a relatively large amount of foreign capital since the mid‐2000s. In South Africa's case, these inflows were partly used to build the country's foreign exchange reserves, but more particularly to finance continued large current account deficits. During the course of the past two years, however, adverse domestic political developments, combined with the potential negative impacts of the unwinding of quantitative easing policies and the normalising of monetary policy in the United States on emerging markets in general, has raised the spectre of a sharp slowdown in foreign capital flows to South Africa and an associated reversal of the current deficit. This paper explores the potential impact of such a development on macroeconomic conditions in South Africa. The analysis consists of macroeconometric model‐based alternative scenarios backed up by both the international evidence on the impact of such events and South Africa's own history.     

Reflexivity,business cycles,and the new economy

Conclusion Markets are not efficient as that term is currently used in academic finance. Rather, markets are reflexive in that market behavior and the fundamentals reflect each other via a two-way, interactive feedback loop. Free markets remain reflexive unless market participants close the feedback loop, which they can do, and have done, to justify and perpetuate a boom. Practical finance theory was clear on the market behavior boom-bust cycles generate, but it was silent regarding the cause of such cycles. Austrian business cycle theory, on the other hand, provides a clear theoretical explanation of the cause and effects of business cycles. By utilizing both theories in a unified manner it is possible to track each stage of a business cycle, which was demonstrated in an analysis of the recent new economy business cycle. Such an approach could be enormously beneficial to both academicians and practitioners during the next business cycle. A Second Vice President of the General Star Management Company, a subsidiary of Berkshire Hathaway. The opinions expressed in this paper are mine, and do not necessarily represent the views of General Star Management Company or Berkshire Hathaway.     

Linking IDC finance to structural transformation and inclusivity in post-apartheid South Africa

ABSTRACT

The need for structural transformation and inclusivity in South Africa is urgent, given poor economic growth, employment and equality outcomes. This article examines the role of South Africa’s main industrial finance institution – the Industrial Development Corporation (IDC) – in providing finance for structural transformation and inclusive economic growth post-apartheid. We find that the IDC’s funding has been concentrated in capital-intensive upstream sectors of the economy, with limited concessional finance to facilitate meaningful entry of SMEs into high-value and labour-absorptive downstream sectors. The IDC’s funding model (in being a self-sustainable institution) is a significant constraining factor in this regard. Furthermore, the lack of a purposeful integrated industrial policy strategy which directs investments clearly means that IDC’s funding priorities are not clearly defined.     

基于共生理论的南海次区域港口物流合作研究

港口是全球供应链的重要环节,港口物流是海上经贸合作的基础,区域间的港口物流合作可降低物流成本、提高物流效率、促进区域经济发展。尝试将共生理论引入到南海次区域港口物流合作中,构建南海次区域港口物流合作共生系统。为了进一步提升港口物流合作共生系统的稳定性,提出港口物流合作的模式及港口物流合作路径,为海上丝绸之路战略下南海次区域港口物流长期合作提供政策参考。     

环南海国家邮轮产业利益相关者均衡机制——基于协同博弈模型的探讨

环南海国家一直在积极推动邮轮产业合作,它们互为域内主要邮轮旅游目的地和客源国。与此同时,作为新兴产业,邮轮产业协同发展及区域合作还存在一定的短板。基于协同博弈的观点对环南海国家邮轮产业协同发展和环南海国家邮轮产业利益相关者均衡机制的构建进行探讨,以期为推动环南海国家邮轮产业、海洋旅游、区域经济的发展建言献策。     

Three stokvel clubs in the urban black township of KwaNdangezi,Natal

Academic studies have neglected the financial aspect of the informal economy. This article examines saving among the poor and their savings institutions (stokvels). The black community is disadvantaged in the financial market by having limited access to formal sources of finance. Stokvels are important in filling this gap. A planning priority for South Africa is adequate financial provision for all its people. In financing the reconstruction of the economy, policies for enhancing savings and redirecting them into investment will prove crucial.     

农村金融改革的历史性思考

由“民工潮”一下子变成了“民工荒”，打破了中国劳动力无限供给的神话，主要发生在东南沿海等加工制造业聚集地区的结构性、局部性的民工短缺，影响了生产，暴露了社会不公，已引起社会的普遍关注。本文运用微观经济学的分析框架，从供给和需求两个方面分析产生“民工荒”的原因，并提出解决的相应对策和措施。     

Market-based incentives in South Africa and Zambia: A comparative analysis of the clean development mechanism

The clean development mechanism (CDM) is intended to serve as a market-based incentive that is both efficient and cost-effective for eligible developing countries. The analysis contained in this article explores why, in theory, such an attractive incentive opportunity has been so under-utilised in sub-Saharan Africa. The paper compares the experience of the CDM in South Africa and Zambia. These two Southern African countries were selected because of their varying levels of statehood, South Africa being an emerging, middle-income economy while Zambia is classified as a least developed country. General challenges affecting the CDM were identified in the literature to be awareness, capacity, eligibility and access to finance. The paper then compares how these overarching issues specifically impact the CDM experience in South Africa and Zambia. The paper finds that common complexities relating to the CDM have varying implications for eligible host countries at different levels of statehood.     

南中国海区域渔业资源合作开发机制研究

渔业资源因其流动性和可再生能力强成为南海周边国家竞相争夺的主要资源之一,由此也产生了一系列的矛盾和纠纷,为此,南海各方建立了相应的合作机制。实践证明,这些机制还存在一定的不足和缺陷。应借鉴渔业共同管理和负责任渔业的有关理论,建立南海渔业资源的合作机制,实现南海渔业资源合作开发与共同保护。     

我国消费金融业务的发展困境及对策刍议

根据2009年银监会文件成立的四家消费金融公司，是我国在拓展内需促进经济发展模式转型过程中作出的有益尝试，在前期发展过程中体现出自身的价值。文章针对消费金融公司前期发展过程中出现的业务发展较慢等问题，进行了简要的分析评述，并结合2014年开始施行的《消费金融公司试点管理办法》，针对发展困境提出了对策与建议。     

The micro‐foundations of the early London capital market: Bank of England shareholders during and after the South Sea Bubble, 1720–251

Using two sources, Bank of England Transfer Books and Stock Ledgers, this article explores the nature of the ‘customer base’ for Bank shares during and after the South Sea Bubble. This examination uncovers the nature of individual participation in this early capital market. The Transfer Ledgers record roughly 7,000 transfers during 1720, while the Ledger Books from 1720–25 record over 8,000 individuals holding stock. The analysis finds the customer base had breadth and depth, comprising individuals from across the social spectrum, from all over England and Europe. The market was diverse and liquid. Activity during the Bubble came from those living in and around London, with most traders participating in the market only twice at most. While the majority of participants were men, there was a sizeable female presence. Men as a group lost money from their market activity, but women made money. In the five years after the Bubble, the customer base was sustained. The analysis argues that the secondary market in financial assets cannot be dismissed as mere gambling devices, and that the basis for a mutually productive interaction between the financial sector and the real sector of the economy was already in existence and was sustained through the shock of the South Sea Bubble and its collapse.     

清末民初上海县城城市财政的形成与构成

城市财政的形成是近代城市史、财政史共同关注的问题。本文透过清末民初上海县城的案例,试图解释城市财政形成的动力机制并分析其收支结构。研究发现,上海县城城市财政形成的动力机制在于:首先,清末上海县城在商业活跃、人口激增的情况下,城市人居环境日益恶化,传统县城基础设施亟待改善,而城市管理制度与经费相对缺失,促使制度需求的出现。其次,地方的公益善举传统与精英势力崛起并广泛参与地方事务,以及官办市政雏形的出现等因素构成了上海县城自身的优势。此外,新政改革为城市财政的形成提供了政策保障。清末民初上海县城城市财政由市政机构作为征税主体,财政.收入主要有城市捐税与规费收入、公产收入、债务收入等,支出则由公共事务性支出、行政性支出、债务支出等几方面构成。积极有效的财政运作是上海县城自治市政成功的基础,也为重新审视与评价近代地方财政制度变革提供了新的角度。     

Municipal bonds as alternatives to PPPs: Facilitating direct municipal access to private capital

The advantages of using municipal bonds to finance urban infrastructure are becoming increasingly evident to policy makers in emerging economies, many of whom are making efforts to accelerate the development of municipal bond markets in their countries. Municipal bonds are sometimes viewed as a less expensive way of financing infrastructure than by public‐private partnerships (PPPs), or methods that maintain greater public control over projects and service provision. The objective of this article is to place current efforts by the South African government to promote municipal bond market development in an international context. This is done by briefly reviewing the advantages local governments experience by issuing municipal bonds to finance infrastructure; discussing some experiences of other countries in trying to accelerate the development of municipal bond markets; and reviewing the need and prospects for an active municipal debt market in South Africa. The article also examines the extent to which municipal bonds should be thought of as alternatives to PPPs in an emerging economy context.     

华侨开拓南美市场的现状与展望

19世纪初华侨开始大规模的移居南美,经过几代人的积累,华人在南美的到了较好的发展。近年来,中国与巴西、阿根廷的经济发展发展较快,为企业进入南美市场提供了一个良好的商贸环境。华人凭借勇于拼闯的精神已经在巴西、阿根廷有了一定的发展,给中国企业开拓南美市场提供了一个良好的商业基础。