China’s new lost generation: the casualty of China’s economic transformation

China’s surge into global middle-income status over the space of three decades has been spectacular. However, a potentially large and burdensome cost has been imposed on a generation of adolescents and young adults who abandoned the countryside, and with it access to basic education, in order to seek the anticipated advantages of jobs in the country’s burgeoning urban-industrial sector. This large swath of off-farm migrants transformed China. It propelled China to the status of the ‘world’s factory’ and created the scale and accumulated learning-by-doing enabling China’s transition to a ‘knowledge economy’ that no longer depends on the labor of China’s new ‘Lost Generation.’ As the Lost Generation and its left-behind children, who suffer from a chronic lack of schooling, thicken the lower tail of China’s income distribution, it may be the rising, prosperous urban middle class that ultimately incurs the social, economic, and political challenges associated with China’s generation of off-farm migrant households once essential for launching China’s economic ascent.     

American agricultural assistance and the new international economic order

Combining ethical, political and economic elements, this paper studies the relationship between American food aid and agricultural assistance and the evolution of demands made by developing countries for a new international economic order. The ethical viewpoint is based on John Rawls' theory of ‘distributive justice’ and argues that the ‘Right to Food Resolution’ does not meet the developing countries' calls for redistribution. After analysing the political and economic differences in outlook of the developed and developing countries, it is concluded that the conduct of American agricultural assistance policies towards the developing countries has failed to appreciate the needs expressed in their demands for a new order.     

Explaining nineteenth‐century bilateralism: economic and political determinants of the Cobden–Chevalier network1

This study investigates the empirical determinants of the treaty network of the 1860s and 1870s. It makes use of three central theories about the determinants of Preferential Trade Agreement (PTA) formation, considering economic fundamentals from neoclassical and ‘new’ trade theory, political‐economy variables, and international interaction due to trade diversion fears (dependence of later PTAs on former). These possible determinants are operationalized using a newly constructed dataset for bilateral cooperation and non‐cooperation among 13 European countries and the US. The results of logistic regression analysis show that the treaty network can be explained by a combination of ‘pure’ welfare‐oriented economic theory with political economy and international interaction models.     

Socializing adaptation: A perspective on world capitalism

This paper proposes a hypothesis on world capitalist development: capitalist societies have responded to the major economic problems which they have generated by ‘socializing adaptation’; now, in response to the development of a world economy with world economic problems, there is emerging a new process of global socializing adaptation. The paper discusses the nature of socializing adaptation in response to national problems, the nature of global socializing adaptation, and possible LDC development orientations.     

全球低碳经济潮流与中国的响应对策

基于对目前全球面临的经济危机和气候变化危机及其共同根源的分析,作者认为低碳经济成为破解这一双重危机的必然选择,协调经济发展与保护全球气候推动全球形成低碳经济发展潮流。全球低碳经济潮流在近期表现为绿色复苏,从长期而言,将推动新的全球竞争格局,具体表现为激烈的国际政治、经济、技术、贸易、金融竞争。全球低碳经济潮流对中国的影响不容忽视,它既是对中国现状的挑战,也是中国未来的发展机遇。通过对中国、美国、欧盟与日本的低碳经济进行比较研究,作者提出中国应走有中国特色的低碳发展道路,并分别从国家、企业与社会公众层面提出了中国应对全球低碳经济潮流的发展对策。     

国际环境新趋势对跨国品牌生态系统演化的影响分析

文章就全球金融危机爆发以来世界的经济与政治环境发生的一系列的变化进行了分析,就其中呈现出的新特点与新趋势包括:品牌营销进入了web3.0的变革时代、金融帝国主义与新自由主义遇到困境、文化本土化与全球化驱动以及认知盈余与时间过剩等内容进行了分析,提出了如何在新趋势下保持跨国品牌生态系统的发展的建议。     

国际金融危机对世界及中国经济的影响

国际金融危机对全球经济的冲击仍在持续,对全球经济增长、国际金融市场、全球版图和治理模式将继续产生深远影响。在此背景下,本文分析了危机后全球经济增长率下滑的成因、国际金融市场的可能变化、全球政治经济权力的分配和运行的深刻调整,综合研判了国际金融危机对我国经济将会产生的长期影响。     

Indonesia's economic performance in comparative perspective and a new policy framework for 2049

This is the first paper of a planned ‘Indonesia 2049’ project, which asks how far Indonesia's economy will have developed 100 years after actual political independence in 1949. We compare dimensions of Indonesia's economy with those of two oil exporters (Mexico and Nigeria), three large populous developing economies (China, India and Brazil) and three Southeast Asian neighbours (Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines). Under Soeharto, Indonesia's economic performance was better than it had been under Soekarno, and above the average of the eight comparator countries, but below that of the East Asian economies. Our view is that Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's second administration must adopt a new economic policy framework to ensure successful transition to knowledge-based growth. This proposed new framework goes beyond the Washington Consensus of ‘getting prices right’ and ‘getting institutions right’ to include ‘getting the role of science right’ and ‘getting the conception of the reform process right’.     

东亚参与全球经济治理的发展前景

东亚地区已经成为全球经济体系中的重要力量,对维护全球经济秩序稳定和健康发展承担着越来越大的责任。东亚地区的最大两个经济体中国和日本参与全球经济治理的进程充分说明,国家经济实力与全球治理能力和话语权之间并不存在必然的正相关关系,东亚地区对全球经济治理的规范选择及其影响力仍然有限,东亚参与全球经济治理的发展前景仍存在一定的不确定性。     

后危机时代中日韩自由贸易区发展中的机遇与挑战

东北亚是全球超强博弈的重要场所,甚至可以作为全球政治经济发展的一个风向标,这使当地的区域合作变数更大。本文从政治经济学角度分析后金融危机时代中日韩区域合作发展的新契机和挑战,为三国经济健康发展提供建设性政策参考。     

Mexico from bust to boom: A political evaluation of the 1976–1979 stabilization programme

This paper evaluates Mexico's recent experience of economic stabilization policies (under the the 3-yr Extended Fund Facility arranged with the IMF in September 1976) from a comparative politics standpoint. By comparison with various South American experiences of inflation and stabilization that were discussed in the same Wilson Centre workshop, Mexico's short-term performance must be rated quite favourably. This was not a case in which Fund orthodoxy prevailed at every point, nor was the Fund analysis accepted without qualification by Mexico's policy-markers. At the end of the period, economic disequilibria, as measured by IMF criteria, remained considerably larger than the 3-yr plan had envisaged, but ‘confidence’ had been restored and rapid growth was in prospect. The interpretation offered in the paper is that Mexico's cyclical pattern of presidential politics largely determined the effective contents of the stabilization package, and that the resilience of the Mexican system of political management goes far to explain why the economic outcome was more favourable than in the South American cases. An accident of geological endowment (the nation's huge oil resources) certainly accentuated the process of recovery from ‘bust’ to ‘boom’, but this factor did not operate in isolation, and should not be considered an adequate explanation on its own. The impact of a geological endowment upon economic conditions depends upon political mediation. However, although this paper seeks to highlight the contribution of Mexican political management to the recent short-term economic improvement, it concludes with some qualifications. The final section considers some constraints on the scope and efficacy of Mexican ‘reformism’, particularly in relation to longer-term and more structural problems.     

Mixing Family Business with Politics in Thailand*

This paper uses newly compiled data on Thai family businesses and their direct participation in politics to examine whether the political participation of family business yields private economic payoff. The paper finds that the political participa‐tion of family members is positively associated with the profitability of family businesses. Furthermore, this ‘political benefit’ is found to be particularly large when firms are connected to cabinet members. These results support the crony capitalism view that powerful business groups in Thailand have an incentive to directly hold influential public offices to influence economic policy in their favor.     

Convergence crisis: economic crisis and convergence in the European Union

The success of the integration process of the new EU Member States is reflected by the convergence performance. Sustainable convergence assumes that potential growth rates of the less developed countries continuously exceed the dynamics of the potential output of the developed countries. However, the financial and economic crisis of 2008 has resulted in a fundamentally new situation as regards these issues. This paper considers real convergence, catch-up processes and in terms of these the main economic growth trends. The study focuses mainly on the potential growth trends. The recession has, however, affected the individual countries to different degrees. The study classified the Member States into four groups based on the initial circumstances and the vulnerability originating from them; these are ‘Developed’ countries and ‘Convergence’ countries, three groups of the latter are ‘Mediterranean’ countries, ‘Catch-up’ countries and ‘Vulnerable’ countries. Potential growth and the contribution of the individual growth factors might follow significantly different paths in these country groups. The convergence countries might face especially great challenges. Potential growth rate of the ‘Convergence’ countries—according to simulations—is expected to recover less in the mid-term, than that of the ‘Developed’ countries, i.e. convergence slows down, it might come to a halt or even divergence might occur in certain countries. It might result in a ‘Convergence Crisis’ particularly in certain ‘Mediterranean’ and ‘Vulnerable’ new Member States. Also, longer term simulations indicate that the European convergence processes might slow down and stop in certain countries. These trends may have significant effects on economic policies facilitating potential growth. We apply extensive quantitative analysis, production function and growth accounting approaches in the study.     

全球经济危机的政治经济学解读

当前蔓延全球的经济危机依然源于世界贫富差距不断扩大导致的供需严重失衡,次贷危机只是偶然的爆发点。只要全球政治一体化依然严重落后于全球经济一体化,世界性经济危机必然会长期存在。只有不断完善新自由主义经济发展政策,加强全球治理,缩小全球贫富差距,维护全球贸易、收支平衡,世界性的经济危机才能逐步缓解。     

The New Roles of Japan in the Global Political Economy

Now that Japan is the world's largest creditor nation, her economic responsibility is the biggest ever. By examining the nature of the three revolutions in Japanese society since the Meiji Restoration, it is apparent that while the speed of economic structural change has been remarkably high, other aspects of the Japanese social framework have remained archaic and premodern.
After discussing the structural changes in the Japanese, Asian, and U.S. economies, this paper makes a case for structural changes in the Japanese political, bureaucratic, and diplomatic world. The new perspective to be suggested is (1) to change the system to utilize more of individuals' initiatives, less of the regulated, restrained, and group-shackled way of management, and (2) for Japan to take positive leadership in a new global political economy based on the principle of independent and equal partnership in the world for world peace and stability.     

The political economy of stabilization: Commitment,capacity, and public response

Political pressures are generally recognized as important in determining success or failure of economic stabilization and adjustment programs. But there has been little comparative analysis of the politics of stabilization. This study examines the factors affecting (i) political leaders' commitment to stabilization measures (often called ‘political will’); (ii) governmental ability to implement stabilization measures; and (iii) the responses of key interest groups and the public at large to those measures. The study also discusses political implications of the design of programs and the attempted speed of stabilization, and sketches the tactics available to governments to manage political risk, including partial compensation, persuasion, diversion or obfuscation, and containment of protest. The discussion is based on case studies of stabilization efforts in five fairly poor, small, highly trade-dependent countries; Ghana in the late 1960s and early 1970s, and Zambia, Kenya, Sri Lanka and Jamaica in the late 1970s and early 1980s. A subsidiary theme within the broader discussion is the ways in which the political economy of stabilization may differ in such countries, as compared to larger, semi-industrialized economies.     

The historiography of French economic growth in the nineteenth century

There has been a long-standing debate about French nineteenth-century economic growth. After 1945 the ‘retardation—stagnation’ thesis dominated. From the 1960s ‘revisionists’ painted a more optimistic view. Recently, ‘anti-revisionism’ has revived gloomy ideas. New research has been primarily responsible for changes of view. National income estimates, and later cliometric studies, bolstered the revisionist argument. Work on the ‘great depression’ stimulated anti-revisionism. Scholars have also been influenced by the economic and political state of France at the time they were writing and the debate has been somewhat politicized. The article ends by surveying the ‘moderate revisionism’ which now prevails.     

States and economic growth: Capacity and constraints

State capacity has become one of the most discussed concepts in development economics and political economy. In this survey we argue that the study of economic history provides vital insights into the process through which modern states have acquired ‘state capacity’. By evaluating the process of state building across a range of different countries in Europe and Asia, we are able to ‘decompress’ the relationship between state capacity and economic growth. Our analysis emphasizes the variegated nature of the state building process. We focus on recent research that helps to elucidate the mechanisms that relate state capacity to economic growth.     

青海“沿湟水发展带”县域经济发展的现状及对策分析——以海东四县为例

"四区两带一线"发展战略是青海省经过多年来的探索与实践,根据省内各地发展要素禀赋差异大、发展基础不同,区域协调发展问题表现突出的省情所提出的区域发展新思路。其中"沿湟水发展带"为青海省主要的人口聚居区,集中了全省70%以上的人口,是全省政治、经济发展的中心,也是"四区两带一线"区域发展战略的重心,此发展带县域经济的发展关系到"四区两带一线"发展战略的成败。本文以沿黄河发展带内海东四县(平安、乐都、互助和民和)为例,探讨了县域经济的健康发展的对策。     

The global faces of China’s incomplete reforms: a perspective from China’s new intellectual property regime

ABSTRACT

The paper probes into an antithetical aspect of China’s economic reforms in the global context by focusing on the recent developments of China’s intellectual property regime. By analyzing this cutting-edge legal system, it highlights China’s political divergence against its economic convergence in its decade-long reforms, in particular, its state-oriented innovation system as against the world’s neo-liberal economic order. The last decade witnessed China’s preeminent transformation from a passive follower to a proactive advocator of IP standards. However, certain entrenched limits characterizing China’s state-oriented economy and cultural systems such as information blockade and coercive technology transfer serve as catalysts that are apt to provoke acrimonious confrontation between China and major economies. In this sense, China’s incomplete reforms have taken on a new form: as China’s influence on the global economy grows, conflicts of diverse national priorities become more palpable than simple-minded economic cooperation.