The causes of Japan's ‘lost decade’: The role of household consumption

In this paper, I analyze the causes of the prolonged slowdown of the Japanese economy in the 1990s and find that the stagnation of investment, especially private fixed investment, was the primary culprit. I then investigate the causes of the stagnation of household consumption during the 1990s and find that the stagnation of household disposable income, the decline in household wealth, and increased uncertainty about the future are among the contributing factors. Finally, I consider whether demand side factors or supply side factors were more important as causes of the prolonged slowdown of the Japanese economy in the 1990s and conclude that the former (especially misguided government policies) were probably more important.     

China： Unscathed through the Global Financial Tsunami

This paper investigates the reasons behind the resilience of China＇s economy to the global financial tsunami. China ＇s economy is lowly leveraged in its banking, household, public and external sectors and, therefore, is less plagued by the global deleveraging than most developed economies. Chinese domestic sectors have improved significantly over the past decade, giving them larger capacity to cope with external shocks than during the Asian financial crisis a decade ago. Contrary to the conventional wisdom that China＇s economic growth is highly dependent on exports, we find that the main growth engine for China is domestic demand. Destocking, rather than falling exports, was the main cause of the sharp economic slowdown in China in late 2008 and early 2009. Therefore, the global economic slowdown should have limited impact on China＇s economy. We forecast a sustained eeonomic recovery in China in 2009-2011, with real GDP growth exceeding 10 percent in 2010.     

日本经济如何走出衰退？

20世纪的最后10年是日本经济“失去的10年”,“衰退的10年”,在经历了世纪之交的短暂恢复之后,日本经济再次陷入衰退,本文分析了日本经济10年衰退期的增长特征,再次陷入衰退的表现及原因;并在此基础上探索日本经济新生的路径。     

转型中的日本对华直接投资

近10年来日本对华直接投资出现过两次高潮,中国已经成为日本最重要的投资对象国之一。制造业占到了日本对华投资的80%以上,运输机械、电机、机械、铁和有色金属、化学工业等5大产业是日本对华直接投资的主体。在中国经济周期变动、中日关系、日本国内经济形势和中国经济政策调整等因素的影响下,日本对华直接投资正处在新转折之中。今后一段时间内,日本对华直接投资额难以出现急剧的增长,但其结构将会进一步改善。     

China in Asia

China's surge to become the world's second largest economy and largest trading nation contributes greatly to Asia becoming the world's largest economic system. China is the nexus of intra-Asian trade and direct investment flows. China's rapid growth in the recent decade relied on a state-directed investment model, akin to the state-run Big Push growth model. As in most big push experiences, intermediate term success leads to economic stresses. China's leaders can no longer ignore obvious signs of rising malinvestment, corporate debts, environmental degradation, and social disparity, all amid an aging population and tightening resource constraints. China's economic slowdown also forces economic adjustment upon its neighbors, rendered more difficult by China's policy ambiguity and volatility. Sill, China can be a positive long term influence in Asia, especially as it carries its market reforms to completion.     

China's Trade Slowdown: Cyclical or Structural?

This paper analyzes whether the slowdown of China's trade in 2012–2015 was cyclical or structural, and further discusses the effects of structural factors, including trade structure, trade protectionism and global value chain participation. Using the national panel data from 2000 to 2015, based on the error correction model and import‐intensity‐adjusted demand model, our results show that the slowdown of China's trade growth in 2012–2015 was mainly a result of cyclical factors. Using 2000–2015 industry‐level data, we also find that the structure of trade goods had an inhibitory effect on the import slowdown but a positive effect on the export slowdown. Trade protectionism had an adverse effect on the trade growth slowdown. The global value chain participation marginally contributed to the slowdown in trade growth. Therefore, the impacts of structural factors on trade growth slowdown cannot be ignored, and related policies should receive greater attention from policy‐makers.     

日本财政危机的走势及根源分析

自泡沫经济崩溃以来,日本财政赤字危机日渐严重,虽然2006年稍事好转,却于全球金融危机中,再次深陷财政危机的泥沼。2011年,日本政府为东海岸地震而额外增加的财政支出又使日本雪上加霜。日本陷入财政危机困境的原因主要在于:经济景气、人口老龄化、制度因素、欧美反衬因素、公共投资乘数下降以及维持庞大公共支出规模等6个方面。文末预测日本在今后的几年中,仍无法阻止国债余额的增长,赤字财政危机状况令人担忧。     

产业空洞化:野田政权面对的经济困局

"3·11"大地震之后,日本国内经济产业环境发生了重大变化:巨大震灾不仅使日本经济遭受重创,而且,还带来了供应链断裂、福岛核危机以及因核电停运而导致的电力紧张。这些新的问题又与内需不足、财政失衡、增长低迷等日本经济长期未能解决的"沉疴"交织在一起,导致日本国内经济产业环境急剧恶化。此外,严峻的全球经济形势更让日本经济雪上加霜:欧债危机、美国经济复苏乏力、新兴经济体增长减速,危机四伏的全球经济环境导致日元不断升值。在上述三重压力的打击之下,是否"离开日本",已经成为日本企业战略重构的关键,所以,日本政府正在面临史无前例的产业空洞化困局。     

Intensified lending competition and search-for-yield under prolonged monetary easing

We present a structural estimation of regionally heterogeneous demand elasticity and the degree of competition in Japanese local loan markets under prolonged monetary easing. Our estimates show that lending competition intensifies in markets where banks hold more slack liquidity caused by monetary easing, and where loan demand is less elastic against lowering interest rates due to a rapidly aging population. We also find evidence for “search-for-yield”, i.e., banks in more competitive markets are driven to extend riskier loans.     

China＇s Economy in 2007/2008： Coping with Problems of Runaway Growth

Fuelled by high domestic investment and rapid export expansion, China ＂s economy grew by ll.4 pereent in 2007, the highest increase since 1994 and the fifth eonseeutive year of double-digit growth. Such spectacular growth performance is unprecedented in the world＇s economic history. However, the Chinese Government is again worried about a possible ＂hard landing＂for the economy, as no economy can sustain very strong growth for extremely long period without overheating. Cracks in China ＂s economy are indeed emerging. The eonsumer priee index shot up to 6.9percent in November 2007, the highest level in a decade, with the annual inflation for 2007 rising to 4.S pereent, well above the government＇s ＂comfort level＂ of 3 percent. This prompted China＇s top leadership to declare that reducing economic overheating and curbing inflation would be the top poliey priorities for 2008. To contain such cost-push inflation, the government has to tackle its root causes, such as excessive liquidity, which is caused by the undervaluation of the renminbi, which in turn is attributable to China＇s chronic external and internal maeroeeonomie imbalances~ High growth is likely to continue in 2008, at around l O pereent, with inflation of S-6 pereent expected, despite the anticipated tighter maeroeeonomie control measures and the more troubled external economic environment （e.g. the expected US economic slowdown）. Regardless, China ＂s fundamental problems associated with runaway growth will largely remain. In addition, if the US economy slips into a serious recession, the Chinese economy will not be able to deeouple from it and escape unscathed.     

市场培育与农村持续发展研究

农村流通体制改革推动了农村市场发育,促进了农村经济发展,农民人均收入快速增加。但是,近来我国许多地区的农村经济增长和农民增收较为缓慢,究其根本原因,不是农业生产效率问题或人口问题,而是农村市场发育水平问题导致的。因此,农村市场的培育已经成为实现农村持续发展重要而紧迫的任务。文章认为,加强政府作用、塑造市场主体、构建交易组织体系、完善市场网络和加快城乡一体化进程等,是培育农村市场的有效途径。     

The case for price level or inflation targeting—What happened to monetary policy effectiveness during the Japanese disinflation?

This paper examines whether price level or inflation targeting would have been appropriate policy choices for Japan during its disinflation and deflation period. We employ Markov switching and structural vector autoregressions, together with structural IS equations, to investigate monetary policy effectiveness during the Japanese disinflation. We find evidence of regime switching in the mid-1990s in a model including the nominal policy interest rate. When monetary policy shocks are identified by using the McCallum rule for monetary base, a monetary expansion is found to have a statistically significant impact on prices. Moreover, a lower real ex ante interest rate can still stimulate the economy despite the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates.     

Growth Slowdown in China since 2008: Will There Be a Hard Landing in the Near Future?

China has witnessed an unprecedented great leap forward in investment since the 2008 global financial crisis, and at the same time real GDP growth has undergone a significant slowdown. This paper examines China's growth slowdown since 2008 up to 2013 using a growth accounting model in a systematic way. It is found that China's growth slowdown since 2008 almost completely comes from a sharp slowdown in total factor productivity growth. During this period, the positive effect on growth from expanding investment has been completely offset by the negative effect of the slowdown in total factor productivity growth. Currently, China's economy has slid into the Solow downward path. Under these circumstances, a soft landing is completely infeasible. Unless the Chinese Government implements substantial rebalancing and comprehensive and in‐depth market‐oriented reform, accompanied by large‐scale de‐investment (decreasing in the ratio of investment in GDP) and massive employment adjustment, China will be unable to avoid the Solow downward path, and a hard landing in investment will be inevitable in the near future.     

中低增长与日本经济发展新时期

2002~2006年及今后的景气恢复与发展,标志着日本已经进入一个以中低增长为特征的新的经济发展时期,而形成这一阶段特征的重要根源则在于日本混在的经济.产业.企业结构。为推进这一时期的持续发展,必须解决伴随"少子老龄化"的深层次经济结构问题。从认识混在结构和提高劳动生产率.工资入手,则是解决问题的关键所在。     

Population Aging and Housing Consumption： A Nonlinear Relationship in China

Mass migration of rural workers to cities will inevitably increase urban housing demand. However, the scale of vacant urban housing will increase in future as a result of the population aging and the rising number of empty nesters. Therefore, demographic transition may not only increase housing demand, but also increase housing supply. Using an overlapping generations model, the present paper investigates＇ the impact of demographic transition on housing consumption. We find that there is a nonlinear relationship between the elderly dependency ratio and housing consumption in China. With the deepening of population aging, housing consumption will increase; when the elderly dependency ratio reaches a turning point, housing consumption will decrease. The turning point of the nonlinear curve also depends on population mobility. A greater degree of population mobility will result in a delayed turning point. Furthermore, the turning point of the nonlinear curve will emerge when China＇s elderly dependency ratio reaches a value of 32 percent in 2025. This means that over the next decade, China should continue to increase the level of housing supply,     

Consumer confidence and economic stagnation in Japan

This paper examines whether self-fulfilling expectations could have been the cause of the economic stagnation experienced by Japan in the 1990s. A real business cycle model with indeterminacy of equilibria and variable capital utilization is used to simulate the economy of Japan. Driven solely by expectation shocks, the model can replicate the economic bubble that occurred in the late 1980s and the prolonged slowdown that occurred in the 1990s. These results suggest that expectations should not be excluded as a possible source of Japan's recent economic difficulties.     

Can IT be Japan's savior?

This paper constructs a multi-sector model to take explicit account of the very sharp change in the relative price between non-IT and IT goods. The model is calibrated to the Japanese economy, and its solution path from 1990 on is compared to Japan's macroeconomic performance in the 1990s. Compared to the one-sector analysis of Japan in the 1990s [Hayashi, F., Prescott, E.C., 2002. The 1990s in Japan: A lost decade. Rev. Econ. Dynam. 5, 206–235], our model does slightly better or just as well in accounting for Japan's output slump and does worse in accounting for the capital–output ratio. We also show that, to revive a 2% long-term growth in per capita GDP, Japan needs to direct 10% of private total hours to the IT sector. J. Japanese Int. Economies 19 (4) (2005) 543–567.     

New,disaggregated, British railway total factor productivity growth estimates, 1875 to 19121

Total factor productivity (TFP) growth in Britain's railways in the last part of the nineteenth century and the first decade of the twentieth has been widely studied, not least because it can throw light on the question of the causes of overall slowdown in industrial growth. This article is concerned with the detailed mechanics of measuring TFP growth and with the use of results to compare growth across different companies. The article disaggregates TFP growth between different activities performed by railway companies (provision of locomotive power, operation of carriages and wagons, provision of permanent way, and working of traffic), and it also develops detailed measures of capital stock and capital costs using disaggregate data on assets employed in each activity. These improvements to existing methodology reduce, rather than increase, existing estimates of TFP growth. Consequently the results confirm the previously observed conclusion that productivity growth was slow. They show that while there were significant increases in goods train operating efficiency in the first decade of the twentieth century, the additional resources that were employed meant that these increases were slow to translate into overall TFP growth.     

The building up of new imbalances in China: the dilemma with ‘rebalancing’

This paper offers a theoretical basis for the concept of rebalancing and applies it to China, where it is currently a topical issue. Rebalancing here means the correction of economic and social imbalances built up during industrialization. This correction is accompanied by a structural transformation towards a more inward- and consumption-driven growth path, associated with growth slowdown. Attempts to mitigate this growth slowdown by either retarding this structural reform process or by using expansionary stimulus programmes as done over the past decade in China create new imbalances that have to be corrected (rebalanced) again. Managing these multiple rebalancing tasks together is a tremendous undertaking, as this paper shows.     

日本经济持续低迷问题研究

日本泡沫经济崩溃至今已经过去20多年,其间日本政府虽然付出了不懈的努力,但是日本经济依然是增长乏力。为了探寻日本经济长期持续低迷的原因,应从影响人们经济行为的文化入手,以宗教为切入点,分析日本独特的模仿文化对经济发展的影响,从而得出文化是造成日本经济持续低迷的真正原因。