东中西地区城市不同年龄组劳动生产率的比较研究

本文借鉴Lindh和Malmberg的方法,在生产函数中引入年龄结构,利用第五次人口普查、2005年1%人口抽样调查数据和城市经济数据,研究中国东中西地区城市劳动生产率,发现地区之间存在差异,年龄组的生产率受到经济发展、产业结构、劳动力教育水平和劳动力流入的影响。因而,人口老龄化带来的劳动力老化对劳动生产率的影响,并不是如通常所认为的简单负线性关系。另外,研究还发现中部城市退休前一个年龄组的生产率出现反弹,东部和中部城市60-64岁年龄的生产率高于15-19岁组,甚至会高于20-24岁组。因此,高年龄组的劳动力存在开发潜力,这为退休年龄延长提供了依据。     

农村社会养老保险资金筹集问题研究

人口老龄化指人口年龄结构中60岁以上或65岁以上老年人口在总人口中所占的比重超过一定数量后并继续增长的过程。第五次人口普查数据显示,我国65岁以上人口占总人口的比重为6.96％,接近老龄化的标准。而占全国人口70％的农村,老龄化问题更加严重,目前农村老年人口按照“五普”的数据估计大约有8000万。十六大报告对农村社会保障问题已发出明确信号——有条件的地方要带头建立农村养老、医疗保险和最低生活保障制度。     

劳动力供给、生产率与外商直接投资工资外溢效应

本文利用中国1999-2007年441个四位码工业行业数据,考察外商直接投资在产业内部和产业之间,通过直接影响劳动力市场供给方式和间接生产率外溢方式对中国内资行业的工资外溢效应。研究结果表明:(1)外商直接投资(FDI)通过直接和间接方式对中国内资行业工资在产业内部和产业之间都产生了显著的正向外溢效应;(2)国有行业比重提高会显著促进FDI通过劳动力供给方式对内资行业产生工资外溢效应,但同样会显著阻碍FDI通过间接的生产率外溢方式对内资行业产生工资外溢效应;(3)FDI对内资劳动密集型行业的工资外溢效应显著高于资本密集型行业,FDI进入显著缩小了中国不同劳动生产率工业部门的工资收入差距。     

因地制宜优化劳动力配置

我国劳动年龄人口的数量和比重已连续多年出现"双降".第七次全国人口普查主要数据结果显示,2020年15岁-64岁劳动年龄人口规模比2010年下降3162万人,占比下降6.8个百分点.劳动年龄人口的减少,意味着劳动力供给的萎缩.我国正处于全面推进乡村振兴,加快农业农村现代化的关键时期,劳动力供给的萎缩不可避免地对劳动密集...     

内蒙古人口年龄结构变化对经济发展的影响

人口问题是影响社会经济可持续发展的首要因素.人口年龄结构对一个区域的经济发展有着相当重要的作用.了解人口年龄结构变动的规律及趋势,在编制经济与社会发展规划,制订人口政策和社会经济政策等方面,有着重要的意义.本文基于2000年中国第五次人口普查资料、2010年中国第六次人口普查资料及2015年抽样调查数据分析内蒙古人口年龄结构变动的趋势与经济社会发展的影响,并提出政策建议.     

积极应对人口老龄化加速辽宁养老产业发展

辽宁省是全国人口老龄化程度最高的省份之一,人口老龄化是辽宁未来较长时间内面临的社会现实问题。人口老龄化的不断加深,对社会进步、经济发展都产生深远的影响。本文基于第七次全国人口普查辽宁省数据,深入分析辽宁省老年人口年龄结构、健康状况、收入来源、代际层次和受教育程度,结合部门数据研究辽宁养老事业、养老产业现状和市场供需矛盾,旨在根据辽宁的优势走一条促进辽宁产业发展的道路,为辽宁经济发展提供决策依据。     

珠海市人口性别结构与年龄结构对经济社会发展的影响

本文主要利用珠海市第六次人口普查的截面数据,以珠海市人口性别结构、年龄结构与经济发展的关联作为研究的焦点,深入分析珠海市当前人口结构特点以及对经济发展的影响。     

抓住人口红利黄金期促进经济可持续发展

人口红利作为衡量人口年龄结构变化对经济增长的影响因素，已越来越多地受到人们的讨论和关注。本文以第六次人口普查常住人口数据为基础，研究临沂市人口年龄结构的现状以及人口红利对经济增长的促进作用，探寻延长人口红利期的对策和建议。     

对山东省企业工资增长情况分析

本文以人民银行577户景气监测企业数据为基础，分析了近10年来的企业工资的增长规律，以及对不同规模企业的工资增长与全员劳动生产率进行比较。基本观点：企业工资增幅低于ODP和全员劳动生产率提升幅度；工资总额占主营业务成本的比重呈不断下降的趋势，对物价上涨的压力和影响总体较小；今年以来小型企业工资增速明显快干全员劳动生产率的增长，导致小型企业盈利水平降低和经营压力加大。     

关于产品单位成本中工资含量和比重问题

在工业管理体制改革中,规定劳动者收入的增长幅度、不能高于劳动生产率、利润增长率和人平上交税利增长率,是完全必要的。但规定“单位成本中的工资含量和比重不能提高”,似乎还应具体分析,值得进一步研究。实行经营责任制是为了提高经济效益,并保证实现“三多”(国家多收,得大头,企业多留,得中头,个人多得,得小头)。其根本途径是要使适销对路的产品增加产量和降低成本。那末,成本中的工资含量和工资占成本的比重,与上述二者的关系是什么呢? 从提高产品产量来看,一是提高劳动生产率,一是增加劳动量。用提高劳动生产率的办     

Real-time analysis on Japan’s labor productivity

This paper analyzes the revision to Japan’s labor productivity, measured using Japan’s System of National Accounts (SNA) data. We draw three main findings from our analysis. First, SNA data has been substantially revised in and after the second comprehensive revisions, as well as at the earlier stage of revisions. We find that the past absolute revisions to the annual growth rate of labor productivity often went beyond 1% point. Second, the annual growth rate of labor productivity has been revised upward by 0.4% points on average. We show that part of its upward revisions reflects an underestimation of employment through an increase in ‘non-response people,’ people who do not respond in the Population Census. Third, revisions to source data such as the Population Census and the Employment Status Survey are helpful to predict revisions to labor productivity growth. Our regression results suggest that labor productivity is likely to be revised upward during expansions or with low real-time estimates of value added. We conclude that the three findings indicate that labor productivity during the 2000s will experience substantial revisions in the future. This conclusion takes into account the fact that the SNA after 2000 has experienced at most one comprehensive revision. The upcoming revisions to labor productivity can be positive rather than negative.     

Aging Workforce,Firm Productivity and Labor Costs in Korea: Are Older Workers Costly to Firms?

Are older workers costly to firms? This study aims to investigate the relationship between an aging workforce on firm productivity and labor costs using a unique Korean firm‐level panel dataset (WPS) covering the period from 2007 to 2011. The primary results show no evidence of a negative relationship between the proportion of older workers and firm productivity, and no significant relationship between the proportion of older workers and labor costs. In addition, the findings of this study implies that failure to account for unobserved firm heterogeneity and endogeneity of changes in age structure biases the results toward finding a correlation between the age structure of workers and firm productivity and labor costs. Consequently, there is a tendency to underestimate the true value of older workers for firms.     

Can older workers stay productive? The role of ICT skills and training

This paper quantitatively examines the effects of aging on labor productivity using individual worker data in Korea. We find that information and communications technology (ICT) skills and participation in job-related training can help older workers stay productive. The estimation results present that ICT skills, a measure incorporating an individual’s proficiency in ICT skills and their utilization in the workplace, has a positive effect on the wages of the older workers aged 50–64 with a high level of education or in a skill-intensive occupation. Job training also has a significant positive effect on the wages of older workers. These results imply that compared to younger workers, well-educated older workers can obtain greater productivity increase through ICT skill attainment and their adequate use, and job-training. The evidence suggests that a productivity decrease in line with the aging process can be mitigated by training aging workers to equip themselves with ICT skills.     

Aging,automation, and productivity in Korea

This paper examines the impact of aging in the Republic of Korea on productivity as measured by labor productivity or total factor productivity (TFP). It also assesses the effect of robot adoption on the relation between aging and productivity using industrial level data. We find that aging is negatively associated with labor productivity and TFP growth. This is true particularly when aging is measured by increases in shares of old workers. If aging is measured by increases in the median age of workers, the negative effect is weaker. Evidence also suggests that robot technology mitigates aging's negative effect on productivity growth, particularly when productivity is measured by TFP. However, there is no evidence that robots are more heavily adopted in aged industries. While robot technology does not directly contribute to higher productivity growth, our findings suggest that the robot adoption can alleviate the negative impact of aging by helping workers in their 50s and 60s contribute less adversly to productivity growth.     

人口流动管制与中国宏观经济波动——基于异质性技能视角分析

人口流动是我国经济的热点问题之一，那么人口流动管制对我国宏观经济波动有什么样的影响?文章在标准RBC一般均衡模型中引入了异质性高低技能劳动，考察了人口流动管制对宏观经济波动的影响。研究发现：（1）劳动人口流动管制对总产出和总消费都有负向影响，会增加低技能工资，降低高技能工资；（2）资本质量冲击、政府购买冲击不仅会使消费和工资水平下降，同时也会造成福利下降，其中单位政府购买冲击会使居民福利下降最大，低技能总福利损失大于高技能总福利损失；（3）通过方差分解发现人口流动冲击能解释产出波动的7.83%和投资波动的5.60%，同时还发现随着经济中高技能比重加大，单位人口流动负冲击对社会福利损失越大。文章基于人口流动管制异质性视角研究得出流动人口管制不利于经济增长和社会总福利，为我国流动人口研究提供了新的研究视角。     

Employer-provided training and productivity: Evidence from a panel of Japanese Firms

This study presents evidence on the relationship between employer-provided training and productivity. The important contributions of this study are its comparison of the relative contribution of training to productivity and wages and its distinction between manufacturing and service firms. The results indicate that training significantly contributes to the labor productivity, particularly for firms in the service sector. The elasticities of productivity and wages to training stock are similar in size, meaning that the returns to firms’ training investments are shared by their workers in proportion to the wage share of the value-added.     

Effects of birth spacing and timing on mothers' labor force participation

Data from the March 1991Current Population Survey [Bureau of the Census, 1992] were used to investigate the effects of children on single and married mothers' labor force participation decisions. Logit results indicated that for both single and married mothers, an increase in education and market experience increases the probability of market participation while an increase in income has a negative effect on the likelihood of mothers' labor market participation. The number of children present in the household negatively affected participation while an increase in the age of children positively influenced the mother's labor market participation. The spacing effect in the married group and the timing effect in the single group were significant. Furthermore, an increase in the number of older children in the household (between the ages of 12 and 17 years) increased the probability of labor market participation by single mothers but decreased that of married mothers.     

Increasing Wages,Factor Substitution,and Cropping Pattern Changes in China

This article analyzed the influence of increasing wages on cropping patterns from theoretical and empirical perspectives. The results showed that the increasing labor cost provided a significant incentive to adjust the grain cropping pattern, which increased the production of the three major cereal grains but reduced the production of other grain crops. Increasing wages had a significant negative impact on cash crops. More labor-intensive cash crops experienced a larger negative impact in the context of increasing wages. The increase in labor costs also had a negative impact on the proportion of vegetables produced, which was more evident in northern China. A further mechanism test indicated that factor substitution was a significant reason for cropping pattern changes; this illustrated the substitution of labor by machinery not only between grain crops and cash crops but also among different cash crops.     

服务业创新发展：基于江苏省的实证分析

尽管创新与服务业的发展已经成为我国经济与产业发展的主要内涵,但创新对服务业发展的作用仍较少被关注。综合已有的文献研究表明,我国现阶段"服务业发展之谜"特征显著,服务业劳动生产率增长缓慢已经成为制约服务业发展的重要原因。文章以江苏省服务业发展为例,分析了江苏省服务业发展的总体趋势以及服务业创新发展的现状,并对江苏省服务业创新发展的影响因素进行了实证分析。研究表明,江苏省服务业劳动生产率与服务业比重之间存在着长期的均衡关系,服务业劳动生产率的提高对服务业的发展水平有着显著的促进作用;城市化水平、人力资本等指标对服务业的劳动生产率有着正向的影响,但服务业集聚的作用仍未得到充分发挥,服务业与制造业之间缺乏有效的联动发展机制在一定程度上影响到服务业创新发展水平的提升。     

Is there a trade-off between the employment and wages of unskilled African South Africans?

The possible trade-off between employment and wages has characterised most of South Africa’s labour market debates, particularly with regards to decent wages versus unemployment. In this article we explore the relationship between labour market earnings and the level of employment among African birth cohorts using labour force data from 1997 to 2011. We find that the association between an increase in the proportion of unskilled employed in a birth cohort and earnings is mediated by the sector of employment. While some sectors exhibit the expected negative association, there is a robust positive relationship between the first two quartiles of the earnings distribution within birth cohorts and the proportion of the birth cohort who are employed in unskilled occupations in the manufacturing and trade sectors. Because a range of market forces determine this relationship, further research is needed to unpack the reasons for such varied outcomes in order to better inform the debates on labour market interventions like the proposed National Minimum Wage and to appreciate the potential impact of such policy interventions on wages and employment.