农村劳动力转移的二元经济内生增长模型

通过引入城乡劳动力转移的二元经济结构，吸收内生增长理论的思想，本文提出一个农村劳动力转移的二元经济内生增长模型。在此基础上对中国的经济增长从二元经济结构转换的角度进行了分析。本文认为，加大对农业的投入和加快资本积累是推动农村劳动力转移、实现二元经济结构转换和经济持续增长的关键；在中国工业部门技术进步有限的情况下，通过促进农村劳动力向工业部门转移可以推动中国经济的持续增长。     

经济增长速度与农村劳动力转移

经济增长与农村劳动力转移相辅相成，但归根到底，经济增长是剩余劳动力转移的助推器，解决农村劳动力转移最终要靠经济增长。根据世界部分国家和地区以及我国近几年的数据分析，农村劳动力转移速度与名义GDP的增长率之间存在着很明显的正相关关系。今年国家制定了“压经济增长、保体制改革”以及2005年“转移农业劳动力800万至1000万”的宏观调控目标，对这二者之间关系的正确解读是经济快速平稳发展的关键。通过分析我们得知，适宜经济结构下的经济高速增长是迅速转移农村劳动力的必要条件。     

试论农村信息化对农业经济增长的影响

在时代发展的过程中,我国农村经济有了进一步的发展,随着科学技术手段的创新,加强农村信息化的发展之路才能进一步带动农村地区的经济发展,对农业经济起到增长性的作用,因此农村信息化的建设与农业的经济增长是具有密切联系的,文章重点对这方面的问题展开了研究,希望通过文章的论述,可以对今后的工作带来一定的帮助。     

农村劳动力转移对安徽省经济发展的若干影响

任何与经济发展有关的政策都会直接或间接地影响农村劳动力转移，而且这一过程又反过来影响经济的发展进程。农业剩余劳动力转向非农产业所带来就业结构变动以及因此而产生的现代经济的推进。农村劳动力的转移和流动就业，可以降低农业生产总成本。农村劳动力的转移不仅会减少单位土地劳动力的绝对量，更重要的可以减少过剩在农业内部的滞存量，减少制约土地集中使用的因素，有利于今后土地的规模化经营。农村劳动力的转移不仅在一定程度上提高了自身劳动力的素质，也有利于形成农业生产无形而巨大的生产能力。农村劳动力的转移不仅提高了农民收入和发展了农村经济，对经济发展的另一个重要贡献是满足了非农产业部门对劳动力的大量需求。     

劳动力有限供给、人口转变与中国经济增长可持续性

本文从结构转化视角分析"刘易斯拐点"和人口转变对于中国经济增长可持续性的影响.通过对跨国面板数据分析,结果表明:劳动力比率对资本形成率产生显著的正向影响,劳动力与资本的有效结合是人口红利得以发挥和经济持续增长的重要条件;总抚养比提高不利于资本积累,将对经济增长产生不利影响.中国经验数据分析显示:经济结构转化,劳动力跨部门转移,是中国经济得以长期、高速增长的关键,高投资率是该增长模式的必然结果;"刘易斯拐点"即将到来,农村剩余劳动力逐渐消失,人口年龄结构变化将使新增劳动力明显减少;如果继续保持较高的资本形成率,资本进一步深化,将使资本边际报酬率快速递减,现有的高投资增长模式难以维持,中国经济将逐步进入低速增长阶段.     

长江经济带农业碳排放与经济高质量发展耦合协调度分析

为厘清长江经济带农业碳排放与农业经济之间的关系,缓解农业碳减排压力,文章基于2010—2018年长江经济带11个省(市)省级面板数据,通过构建农业碳排放与经济发展水平综合评价指标体系,利用综合发展水平评价模型对农业碳排放水平与经济发展水平进行评价研究,并通过耦合协调模型对长江经济带农业碳排放与经济高质量发展之间的耦合度、协调度以及其区域差异进行分析研究。文章研究发现:碳排放水平和经济增长存在正相关关系;碳排放水平和经济增长两个子系统长期处于高级耦合阶段;由于区域差异,二者之间并非呈绝对的正向关系,需因地制宜完善农业碳排放管理机制,从而加快我国农业碳减排,推进农村经济现代化。     

农业政策与农业经济增长的关系研究

二十世纪初五六十年代,农业现代化在全世界基本上实现。我国农业现代化伴随新中国工业化的进程可划分为三个阶段,农业政策相应经历了农业剥夺、农业支持和农业多予三种取向。随着"十二五"规划的实施,"工业支持农业、城市反哺农村",使得农村经济增长获得了前所未有的历史发展机遇。根据我国现在经济发展新阶段的形势来判断,应该构建农业收入支持、农业营销支持、农业生产支持和农业基础设施支持四大农业政策系统。     

有效经济增长与中国经济发展阶段再判断——从日本与我国台湾地区的经验谈起

本文提出有效经济增长的概念,构建了有效经济增长动态模型,建立了超额人均收入等相关变量的测定方法,试图从一个全新的角度考察经济发展的阶段性规律,并定位当前大陆有效经济增长阶段.基本结论是:有效经济增长大体分为中低速稳定增长阶段、高速波动增长阶段与停滞或小幅下降阶段三个阶段;其中中低速稳定增长阶段为"起飞前准备阶段",高速波动增长阶段为"新起飞阶段";1978 年以来我国一直处于"起飞前准备阶段",但当前已接近中低速稳定增长阶段与高速波动增长阶段的转折点,即正向"新起飞"阶段跨越.对此我们应充分借鉴日本与我国台湾地区的成功经验,在新的实践逻辑起点上为祖国大陆制定相关政策提供新思路.     

农村青壮年劳动力大量转移对农村的影响

农村青壮年劳动力的转移,已成为发展中国家实现工业化和现代化的一个必然趋势和重要途径.中国是农业大国,长期以来农业与农村经济发展始终是我国经济社会发展中的重大问题.认真研究农村青壮年劳动力转移对社会主义新农村建设的影响,探索妥善解决农村剩余劳动力转移问题的对策,对我国经济可持续发展和社会主义新农村建设具有十分重要的意义.     

我国经济增长与农村社会保障制度变迁

新中国成立以来,我国农村社会保障制度的变迁与经济增长密切相关,农村社会保障制度是随着我国经济的增长而逐渐完善的。我国农村社会保障制度的变迁取得了一定成绩,但也存在许多问题,严重制约了我国社会主义新农村建设和社会主义和谐社会的构建。为了更好地促进农村社会保障事业的发展,必须从社会保障制度的变迁中进一步探讨我国农村社会保障制度存在的问题,深入探讨制约农村社会保障制度创新的原因,提出创新农村社会保障制度的对策建议。     

On the Major Transformation of the Asia-Pacific Regional Structure北大核心CSSCISSCI

Recent years have witnessedsignificant changes in the Asia-Pacific regionalstructure featuring the shift in power balance among related countries as well as adjust-ments in their respective regional strategies. So what is the prevailing trend in thistransformation and what kind of regional order will likely emerge in the future？ To an-swer these questions, the paper tries to explore the following dimensions： the evolvingregional context, shift in power balance and power conversion, geo-political and geo-e-conomic developments and interactions between them, and evolving regional order. Asthe study shows, the broadening of regional geographical scope, the rise in the numberof actors involved, as well as changesin the relations among them, have combined tocast a pluralistic and complex flavor to the regional structure. While the power balanceamong China, the United States and Japan shifts, and power conversion is also occur-ring. China and Japan are paying increasing attention to their security roles, whereasthe United States under the Obama administration laid more stress on expanding itsgeo-economic clout. In spite of the intensifying geopolitical competition among China,the United States and Japan in recent years, a Sino-US strategic compromise-whichholds the key to regional geopolitics-isother front, some kind of geo-economicmore likely to take place in the future. On thecooperation will probably emerge. In the longerterm, it will be the geo-economic trend thatwill prevail over the geopolitical trend inthe region. Finally, the future evolution of regional order wiI1 mainly follow the eco-nomic logic, accompanied by the dilutionof its hegemonic and hierarchical nature.Hence, a pluralistic and complex regional community will emerge.     

区域工业产业竞争力指标体系的构建及其评价方法研究

文章通过建立省级区域工业产业竞争力评价指标体系,设计竞争力模型,利用SPSS统计软件,对各省工业产业竞争力进行了评价测定。     

文化传播中电视暴力对青少年侵犯行为的影响

伴随当代传媒产业的蓬勃发展,暴力也成为影视艺术基本的叙事类型及消费主义文化日趋盛行的现实语境。＂电视暴力＂是作为＂媒介暴力＂的一个子概念存在的;从文化传播看电视暴力,其覆盖面大,且易于接触;电视暴力对受众特别是青少年的影响巨大而深刻。要从制作者、传播者和观众三个方面的自律出发,建立适应我国国情的影视分级制。     

理性与先验的完美整合——论笛卡尔的"上帝"观

笛卡尔是西方近代主体性哲学的先驱,是近代唯理论学说的创始人,他使人们从中世纪宗教势力的禁锢中解放了出来.虽然"上帝"这个被人们视为理性最大敌人的概念在他的哲学中大量存在,但他极力证明上帝存在的最终目的却是为了证明理性的伟大;作为真理化身的上帝,归根到底是为他的理性主义服务的.     

Organization and incentives in the age of sail

The British Navy in the age of sail was the most successful bureaucracy of its time. Its organization and incentive structures differed importantly from contemporaneous private sailing ventures, but closely resembled those of today’s large corporations. To induce efficient effort, the navy used a hierarchical tournament, in which sailors competed for higher pay that came with promotions based on relative performance. Promotion probabilities, the option value of future promotions, and the higher effort required of men in higher ranks and on larger vessels, combined to yield a highly skewed pay structure.     

The German Hanse and Bergen – new perspectives on an old subject

Abstract

The Hanseatic League and her kontors (trading posts) were an integral part of the medieval trade system in Northern Europe. Hanse merchants dominated many markets in this region and managed to maintain a monopoly-like role in towns like Novgorod and Bergen for many centuries. Consequently, one focus of historical research about the Hanseatic League lay on the mechanisms that enabled the Hanse merchants to keep that strong of a position for such a long time.

This article is part of the discussion about this topic. Based on Lübeck merchants with business interest in the Norwegian town of Bergen, the so-called Bergenfahrers (Bergen travellers), it will give new insights into the Hansards' economical and social organization. The three main points are (a) the integration of the Bergen market in the Hanseatic trade network as an intermediary trading place on the vivid East–West route of Hanse trade; (b) the importance of the Bergenfahrers within the Hanse merchants' economical, social and political networks; and (c) the structure of the Bergenfahrers network patterns in the late Middle Ages.

In addition to new insights into the important role of Bergen and the Bergenfahrers within Lübeck's and the other Wendish Hanse towns' trading system, this articles provides further proof for the usefulness of the methods of Social Network Analysis in medieval economic research.     

Financial Reporting and Trade Credit: Evidence from Mandatory IFRS Adoption*

We investigate the effect of mandatory IFRS adoption on trade credit. We document that firms in countries that adopt IFRS receive more trade credit from their suppliers, consistent with improved financial reporting quality and comparability playing a role in facilitating informal financing. This increase is larger for countries with a low level of societal trust, a poor pre‐IFRS‐adoption information environment, and stronger legal enforcement. These cross‐sectional results suggest that the conditions under which higher‐quality information is made publicly available affect suppliers' decisions to provide trade credit. This increase is also larger for firms with greater exposure to foreign markets, a finding that highlights the importance of more comparable international financial reporting standards in facilitating cross‐country trade credit. We also find that IFRS adoption has a stronger positive effect on trade credit for firms with greater liquidity needs. Finally, we find that firms in countries that adopt IFRS also extend more trade credit to their customers. Overall, our results support the notion that financial reporting can have a causal effect on trade credit.