现代服务业的演化机制

现代服务业的领域不断在扩展,在经济建设中发挥的作用不断增长,正日益创造着巨大的经济价值。文章运用企业管理的理论和分析方法,对现代服务业的演化机制进行研究。首先分析了国际上现代服务业的现状和发展集群,从国际整体的发展背景,概述现代服务业的演化机制。其次分析在国际现代服务业发展的大背景下,中国的服务业的发展和演化机制。最后预测现代服务业的演化机制。     

基于演化经济学的创新集群形成动力机制研究

创新集群是复杂的创新网络,是实施创新驱动发展战略的重要载体。地理临近性、空间集聚是形成创新集群的前提条件,并通过一定的动力机制演化形成创新集群。文章借鉴演化经济学相关理论,探讨创新集群中各个经济行为主体在时空条件下的演化路径,研究空间集聚、专业化分工、社会网络、交易成本、规模经济等创新集群演化动力机制及过程。     

国有企业“供给侧改革”的阶段与着力点

要使中国国有经济重新恢复增长动力，必须从供给侧发力：新供给的主体是谁？是提供产品与服务的经济组织--企业。新供给的形态是什么？是生产，是实体经济。     

多重异质性与经济演化关系的系统化研究

经济演化是多个异质主体与环境相互作用的过程。异质性是演化理论研究的逻辑起点,但是对于经济演化过程当中涉及到的多重异质性及其在演化过程中的地位和作用,目前缺乏系统研究。为了深化多重异质性与经济演化关系的认知,文章基于系统视角对多重异质性在经济演化中的作用机理进行重新梳理,并提出了异质性经济演化前沿研究领域的展望。研究增进了对地方经济演化的基础、动力和路径的理解,为经济提质增效提供了新的视角。     

内蒙古的出路在供给侧结构性改革

习近平总书记在中央财经领导小组第十一次会议的讲话中指出:“在适度扩大总需求的同时,着力加强供给侧结构性改革,着力提高供给质量和效率,增强经济持续增长动力”.中央经济工作会议要求:“稳定经济增长,要更加注重供给侧结构性改革”.分析我国经济减速换挡的原因,有需求不足的周期性因素,但更根本的是供给侧的结构性因素,由于生产要素条件变化导致中长期潜在经济增长率下降.     

供给侧视角下FDI与经济增长方式关系研究

在以需求侧驱动转向供给侧驱动为主导的经济新常态下，FDI作为综合性投资方式成为推动经济增长的重要引擎之一。基于供给侧视角，论证了C-D生产函数机理，量化经济增长方式；从而通过协整检验以及VEC模型探究FDI与量化的经济增长方式之间的长期均衡效应和短期动态波动机制；进而基于VAR模型对变量进行脉冲响应函数和方差分解分析。结果表明：FDI与全要素生产率贡献率的长期均衡对短期动态波动具有反向修正机制；FDI受到单位冲击后引起全要素生产率贡献率的强烈正向响应，并且FDI对经济增长方式转变的贡献率达到了11%。     

改革开放以来中国财政政策演化的动力研究

文章在梳理大量文献的基础上,探索了中国财政政策演化的阶段性,认为宏观经济发展的反周期需要、自适应、经济主体的变化是中国财政政策演化的动力,最后提出了中国财政政策演化的启示.     

产业集群生命周期演化的动力机制研究

本文探讨了产业集群生命周期阶段与主导动力机制的关联方式与逻辑演绎、并构建了由区位指向、集聚经济、创新网络和锁定效应四个变量决定的产业集群生命周期演化的动力机制模型，进而探讨了关于动力机制模型的应用及其量化方法问题。     

金融支持内蒙古供给侧改革的几点思考

一、供给侧改革实施背景 2015年11月10日,习近平总书记在中央财经领导小组第十一次会议上强调:"在适度扩大总需求的同时,着力加强供给侧结构性改革,着力提高供给体系质量和效率,增强经济持续增长动力,推动我国社会生产力水平实现整体跃升."长期以来,我国宏观调控较为侧重于需求侧,即消费、投资、出口"三驾马车".随着国际国内宏观经济形势的转变,传统经济增长方式后继乏力,从需求侧来看,投资和出口大幅放缓,传统扩张式的增量发展动能不足,积累的过剩存量问题在改革过程中集中暴露.因此,近两年来,中国主动放慢经济增速,着力于结构调整转型,从供给侧入手直面累积多年的存量问题,特别是实体经济产能过剩、房地产高库存、基础设施超前超大超量建设、地方政府高债务、银行不良资产较多等存量问题.     

供需两侧视角下江苏省经济增长动力转换分析

江苏经济已由高速增长阶段转向高质量发展阶段,正处在转换增长动力的关键时期。基于总供给与总需求视角,江苏经济增长新旧动力正在接续转换。文章从供需两侧分析江苏经济增长动力转换。供给侧的要素投入面临瓶颈,表现在人口红利减弱、土地资源制约突出、高资本形成率难以维持;但人力资本积累与自主创新能力增强则有效地提升了要素配置与使用效率。需求侧的传统投资与出口减弱;但中高端消费升级引导投资结构进一步优化。未来江苏应充分把握消费、投资与出口等需求结构的优化升级机遇,促进要素资源的高效使用,扩大有效和中高端供给,从而进一步释放消费潜力、拓展投资空间、提升出口能力。通过提高供给体系对需求结构变化的适应性与灵活性,更好地实现供需动态平衡,形成新的经济增长动力。     

Renminbi in Ordinary Economies: A Demand‐side Study of Currency Globalization

Most studies of renminbi internationalization focus on the supply side, by examining China's own economic and political conditions. In contrast, this study addresses the demand side of renminbi internationalization, by providing an in‐depth analysis of renminbi use in ordinary foreign economies from both economic and political perspectives, with a particular focus on South Korea, China's next‐door neighbor. The study finds that sustainable indigenous market forces facilitating renminbi use in South Korea remain weak, despite the country's close economic ties with China. This research also shows, however, that the Korean Government has itself recently been able, through its policy measures, to generate new domestic support for greater use of the renminbi. These findings ultimately highlight the significant impact on the internationalization of a currency of the politics in the foreign countries using it.     

Haste Makes Waste: Policy Options Facing China after Reaching the Lewis Turning Point

This paper provides a framework for assessing the health of China's macro economy and the sustainability of economic growth by combining supply‐side and demand‐side factors and by considering their relationship at different stages of development. As the Chinese economy passed through its Lewis turning point, weakened supply‐side factors caused its growth to slow. The increasing concern regarding the economic slowdown has induced both the central and local governments to implement various stimulus plans through instruments of macroeconomic, industrial and regional policies. By examining where the imbalances of the Chinese economy really lie and investigating the determinants of the current slowdown and of the enhancement of the potential growth rate, the present paper suggests that the best path of action for the Chinese Government is not to stimulate growth through demand‐side factors but to increase the potential growth rate through reforms in certain key areas.     

Testing policy effectiveness during COVID-19: An NK-DSGE analysis

We examine the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policy in mitigating the impact of COVID-19 in India using the NK-DSGE framework. In terms of policy effectiveness, our findings imply that expansionary monetary policy is effective in reviving economic growth both from the demand side and supply side. In contrast, expansionary fiscal policy is effective only from the supply side. Our findings recommend the implementation of optimal policy mix in a coordinated and staggered framework for effective mitigation of ill-effects of the COVID-19, such as reviving employment and capacity utilization to its pre-pandemic level with minimal inflationary effects.     

The Supply Side of the Race Between Demand and Supply: Policies to Foster Skill in the Modern Economy

In his celebrated book on income inequality, Jan Tinbergen (1975) wrote about the race between demand and supply in determining the evolution of wages and inequality. The demand side of the recent labor market is well understood. Skill-biased technical change favors skilled workers in many different economic environments. The supply side is less well understood. In the Netherlands, until recently, the supply side was winning and the returns to education were declining or stagnant. The exact reasons for this phenomenon are not well understood. Recently, however, there is evidence that suggests that the returns to schooling are increasing and that demand is outstripping supply, as it has done in most developed countries around the world. This has produced rising wage inequality. Unless more active supply side measures are undertaken, this trend is likely to continue. This problem, joined with the persistent problem of immigrant assimilation and the growing role of immigrants in the Dutch economy, renews interest in the supply side of the labor market. This lecture examines the determinants of the supply of skills in the short run and the long run. It examines the roles of short- term credit constraints and long-term family factors in fostering or retarding skill accumulation. It summarizes the evidence on a number of policy proposals to foster skills including early childhood programs, programs to alleviate short-term financial pressure, job training and second chance programs, and tax policies. This lecture stresses the cumulative dynamic nature of skill production and the importance of recognizing that skill begets skill in designing suitable policies to reduce inequality and foster economic growth. While the evidence is based on American data, the lessons are relevant for economies around the world. Specific lessons for the Netherlands are emphasized.     

Errors-in-variables, supply side effects, and price elasticities in foreign trade

Errors-in-Variables, Supply Side Effects, and Price Elasticities in Foreign Trade.—Previous estimates of price elasticities in foreign trade are likely to be biased upward due to errors-in-variables, omission of supply side influences, aggregation, bad measurement of price competitiveness, and misspecification of the estimation equations. This paper incorporates the supply side into the traditional demand for export equation and uses a panel data approach for OECD manufacturing to provide unbiased estimates of price elasticities. The estimates indicate that the sum of the absolute import and export price elasticities is close to one and that currency depreciations are likely to adversely affect trade balances in the long run due to supply side influences. JEL no. E3, F1, F4     

Credit Conditions in Pakistan: Supply Constraints or Demand Deficiencies?

This paper attempts to pin down the key drivers of demand for and supply of real private sector credit in Pakistan. I use both the equilibrium and disequilibrium econometric frameworks, specifically tackling the issue of lack of consistency and/or efficiency of joint estimators in the former via the three‐stage least squares technique. On the demand side, I find that higher economic activity provides stimulus to credit whereas inflation dampens it. The stock market seems to play a dual role: as a source of alternative financing, a bullish market negatively impacts credit while, as an indicator of economic expectations, it provides a positive impetus. On the supply side, banks' lending capacity is found to be the major driver of credit while government borrowing has a crowding‐out effect. Pakistan currently faces supply constraints, which might put an additional check on capacity utilization by firms, thus damaging growth prospects. The results have important policy implications.     

制度经济学的理论发展与前沿理论展望

自从沃尔顿·汉密尔顿1918年在美国经济学年会提出的"经济理论的制度分析方法"以来,制度经济学的理论发展已经历经百年。文章尝试对制度经济学主要理论发展脉络进行梳理和剖析,着重阐述制度均衡分析从完全合同理论到不完全合同理论的发展,以及制度演化分析从演化到共同演化理论的发展,并基于均衡分析和演化分析的范式融合与超越,展望前沿理论的发展方向。制度经济学的前沿理论发展需要将制度的激励功能和认知功能、将个体的选择行为和被环境选择行为、将均衡的产生和内生演变等纳入统一分析中。     

Optimal flat-rate taxes on capital - a re-examination of Lucas' supply side model

We examine the transitional dynamics of Lucas' supply side modelof the US economy in order to specify the effects of capitaltaxation on economic growth and welfare. We restrict the analysisto policy plans characterized by constant capital taxes andrequire the government to maintain a balanced budget. Underthese restrictions, the optimal tax rate on capital is shownto be positive and sensitive to the government expenditure rule.Welfare can be further increased by the introduction of a taxon asset holdings.     

Supply and demand macro-econometric model of a small economy: evidence from Namibia

This study develops a macro-econometric model for the Namibian economy. This macro-econometric model estimates both the demand and supply sides of the Namibian economy. This model incorporates the price sector, in order to serve as a link between the supply and demand sides of the economy. The model consists of behavioural equations, linked by identities and definitions. These behavioural equations were estimated and simulated individually. They were then combined together to form a full macro-econometric model of the Namibian economy. The full macro-econometric model was closed using two models. The first model activates the supply side and marginalises the demand side. The second model is demand side orientated, which activates the demand side and marginalises the supply side. The results indicate that the estimated values closely approximate the actual values. This macro-econometric model can be used to apply policy simulations, in order to determine appropriate economic policies for Namibia.