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1.
    
This paper analyzes how pollution control in the recipient developing country affects the flow of multinational capital owned by multinational firms in the source developed country. We find that when pollution control in a developing country becomes stricter, then the amount of multinational capital flowing into the developing country will certainly or conditionally decrease. Through further welfare analysis, we hope to provide some policy suggestions that will allow the government to guarantee the welfare of the labor force while it implements stricter pollution control.  相似文献   

2.
The current global financial and economic crisis is giving new life to initiatives that promote closer economic integration among East Asian countries. A significant example is the ASEAN- China Free Trade Area (.4 CFTA), which is set to come into effect around 2010..4CFTA aims to boost trade between two economies that are partners as well as competitors: ASEAN and China. In the present paper, we use insights from customs union theory in a qualitative analysis considering whether,4CFTA would benefit both sides. We also apply a computable general equilibrium model to perform a quantitative analysis of the same issue. Both our qualitative and quantitative analyses provide grounds for guarded optimism regarding A CFTA 's prospects as a vehicle for strengthening the economic partnership between ASEAN and China.  相似文献   

3.
The role of China in East Asia's recovery from the recent global financial and economic crisis highlights China's position as an engine of growth for this region. From the viewpoint of China, there are many potential gains from entering into free trade agreements (FTAs) with its neighbors, who collectively form a large and fast‐growing market. In this paper, we qualitatively and quantitatively assess the four main permutations of China's FTAs with East Asian major economies: China–ASEAN, China–Japan, China–Korea and ASEAN+3. We compare the effects of these FTAs on China's output and welfare. Our comparative analysis shows that China will gain from all three bilateral FTAs, while gaining the most from the ASEAN+3. Because forming a region‐wide FTA, such as the ASEAN+3, is expected to be gradual and difficult, China should continue to engage in bilateral FTAs as a medium‐term and alternative strategy. However, in the long term, China should pursue a region‐wide FTA.  相似文献   

4.
This article uses a dynamic computable general equilibrium model to explain the persistence in the high levels of unemployment in the South African economy in spite of modest to relatively strong output growth. We make use of a historical simulation for the period 2006–13 and find that the capital–labour ratio increased despite a relative increase in the rental price of capital. Classical economic theory suggests that changes in industry preferences toward capital and labour lead to adjusted capital–labour ratios. We quantify the changes in industry factor preferences during this period and highlight their impact in explaining observed labour market outcomes. Other changes in the economy over this period are also quantified.  相似文献   

5.
This paper compares the degree of openness to trade of three developed countries markets—the European Union, Japan, the United States—with that of three middle-income countries, namely Brazil, India, and China. A theoretically consistent protection measure—the Mercantilistic Trade Restrictiveness Index (MTRI)—is employed to average tariffs at different levels of aggregation. The computation relies on a comparative static applied general equilibrium model (Global Trade Analysis Project—GTAP) featuring imperfect competition as well as on the bilateral applied tariffs included in the most recent version of the GTAP database. Results provide a different picture from what could have been expected given the widely publicized diffusion of preferential schemes supposedly favoring developing countries exports. JEL no.  F17, C68, Q17  相似文献   

6.
The long-standing severe power shortage in China has provoked much debate on whether China should further promote market-oriented electricity reform. The present paper addresses this issue by analyzing the impacts of deregulation of the electricity generation sector and retailing activities on other sectors, the macroeconomy and electricity users. A countetfactual scenario analysis is used based on a simplified computable general equilibrium framework. We find that deregulation can significantly improve the efficiency of electricity production, increase employment and enhance household welfare. These nontrivial findings can help to resolve many controversies about governmental intervention during China's economic transition. Our findings have two implications relating to policy feasibility and applicability; that is, competition in the electricity retail market shouM be phased in, and the necessary arrangements for unemployment in incumbent firms shouM be considered.  相似文献   

7.
以往计算投资乘数主要采用两种方法,或是建立计量模型并根据乘数的定义来计算从而得到总量的结果,或是利用改进后的投入产出分析法得到结构化的结果.本文尝试利用CGE模型的新算法计算了我国分类居民的投资乘数,得到的结果是城镇居民的投资乘数为2.83,而农村居民的投资乘数为1.35.  相似文献   

8.
    
ABSTRACT

Potential biofuel demand in South Africa is estimated to increase to 1550 million litres by 2025 due to mandatory blending rates. Land and water constraints, however, limit the ability for domestic production. Zambia, due to its abundance in land, suitable climate, supportive set of bioenergy incentives and close geographical location to South Africa, has the potential to meet this increase in demand. Using a dynamic recursive computable general equilibrium model, we estimate the macro- and socio-economic impacts of bioethanol production in Zambia from three potential crops: sugarcane, cassava and sweet sorghum. The results show that the development of a single product bioethanol industry has the potential to increase economic growth without negatively affecting overall food security. Further expansion of the industry to multiple products results in larger gains to growth and welfare.  相似文献   

9.
The present paper examines the economic consequences of the most recent reform of Vietnam's rice policy, the removal of the rice-export quota. The reform is analyzed in light of domestic policy barriers, such as restrictions on cross-sectoral land mobility, as well as international policy barriers, such as distortions introduced by preferential trade agreements. The analysis expands and amends a global computable general equilibrium model to represent these features. The analysis shows that the export quota has been a very restrictive policy tool that has kept Vietnamese rice production and exports well below potential. Both the domestic and international policy constraints contribute to this situation.  相似文献   

10.
    
A computable general equilibrium model linked to a microsimulation model is applied to assess the potential short-term effects on the South African economy of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. With a particular focus on distributional outcomes, two simulations are run, a mild and a severe scenario. The findings show significant evidence of decline in economic growth and employment, with the decline harsher for the severe scenario. The microeconomic results show that the pandemic moves the income distribution curve such that more households fall under the poverty line while at the same time, inequality declines. The latter result is driven by the disproportionate decline in incomes of richer households while the poorest of the poor are cushioned by government social grants that are kept intact during the pandemic. The COVID-19 pandemic is still unfolding and its economic modelling as well as the data used to operationalise the model will need to be updated and improved upon as more information about the disease and the economy becomes available.  相似文献   

11.
12.
    
ABSTRACT

Mozambique is one of the most promising African countries for producing biofuels and the national biofuel policy of 2009 identifies measures to incentivize biofuel production. Demand for biofuels in the Southern African Development Community is expected to increase over the next few years as 7 of its 15 member states have implemented or proposed the implementation of blending mandates by 2020. South Africa is one of these countries. Using a dynamic recursive computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, we estimate the impacts of expanding biofuel production in Mozambique under both commercial and smallholder-type farming models, including and excluding bagasse cogeneration.  相似文献   

13.
Via computable general equilibrium modeling we find that as a result of economic growth, Yuan appreciation, and logging restrictions in China, China’s imports and exports of forest products would dramatically increase, and China’s imports would have displacement effects as timber-exporting countries would increase their exports to China while reducing their shipments to other countries. Such displacement effects would make pressure on forests in supplying countries less than they otherwise might be. Global economic growth is a dominant driving force for China’s imports. Russia, Southeast Asia, and Africa would remain major foreign suppliers of logs to China, while supply sources for Chinese imported lumber and paper products would be relatively diverse.  相似文献   

14.
We examine whether or not affiliate production in Central and Eastern Europe (CEEC) affects factor demand in the EU, at the investing firm and sector levels. Using firm level data, we estimate parent labor demand elasticities for a number of manufacturing sectors, following a flexible cost function approach. We find evidence of inter-sector heterogeneity, but not of a substantially greater impact in low-skilled intensive sectors. Labor demand in the EU is affected by FDI in the CEEC, both at the investing firm and sector levels. It has a significant sector and non-sector component.  相似文献   

15.
16.
李鹏姬  钟山  张丽丽 《科技和产业》2025,25(11):243-250
新质生产力依托科技创新,通过战略新兴产业实现高效生产,研发投入是其形成的关键。通过构建可计算一般均衡模型在理论层面探讨研发投入影响新质生产力发展的内在逻辑,并使用2000—2019年上市公司数据进行实证分析。结果表明:研发投入显著提升高技术产业的全要素生产率;经济市场化程度在这一过程中起调节作用,其中中部地区受影响最显著,其次是东部,西部影响最小。此外,东部地区的政府与市场关系在调节高技术企业研发投入对全要素生产率的影响中发挥重要作用。研究结论揭示了不同地区研发投入对全要素生产率的差异化影响,建议持续增加对战略新兴产业的研发资本,并因地制宜差异化施策,以促进经济发展。  相似文献   

17.
This paper analyzes welfare implications of protecting intellectual property rights (IPR) in the framework of TRIPS for developing countries (South) through its impact on innovation, market structure and technology transfer. In a North-South trade environment, the South sets its IPR policy strategically to manipulate multinationals’ decisions on innovation and location. Firms can protect their technology by exporting or risk spillovers by undertaking FDI to avoid tariffs. A stringent IPR regime is always optimal for the South as it triggers technology transfer by inducing FDI in less R&D-intensive industries and stimulates innovation by pushing multinationals to deter entry in high-technology sectors. JEL no. O34, F23, F13, L13, O32, L11, O38  相似文献   

18.
    
An important new issue on the international scene is the upsurge in market and non-market South–South relations. The aim of this paper is to understand the dynamics that lie behind the recent Chinese move into Africa by empirically exploring the determinants of Sino-African relationships. In order to have a comprehensive picture, the analysis takes into consideration the main channels of commercial and political interactions: outward foreign direct investment (OFDI), trade and aid (international economic cooperation). The empirical analysis utilises a panel data set, from 1998 to 2005, for 43 African countries. The econometric estimates for three simultaneous equations are based on an instrumental variables method. Results show that the Chinese move into Africa is driven by strategic interaction among the three channels (FDI, trade and economic cooperation) as well as by pull factors, i.e. the characteristics of the receiving countries in terms of natural resource endowments and their market potential.  相似文献   

19.
Wage subsidies have been used in both developed and developing countries to raise employment. After a decade of deliberation, the South African Government recently announced the introduction of a wage subsidy scheme. Given the intrinsic link between unemployment and poverty in South Africa, the belief is that a wage subsidy programme sufficient in scope will also make inroads into poverty. However, the way in which jobs are distributed among poor and non-poor jobseekers is crucial. Our general equilibrium microsimulation model confirms the expectation that a higher wage elasticity of labour demand is associated with larger reductions in poverty. We also find that a greater proportion of new jobs accrue to poor jobseekers when the elasticity is high. While youth-targeting does not improve the poverty-reducing effect of the policy, sectors such as textiles, accommodation, and construction services with their pro-poor employment profiles are good candidates for targeting.  相似文献   

20.
By assessing the sustainability of regional trade agreements (RTAs) for East Asia, we quantitatively evaluate the likely impact of proposed East Asian RTA strategies on the East Asian economies and the world economy with respect to consumption, production, volume of trade and terms of trade effects by applying a multi‐country and multi‐sector computable general equilibrium model. These strategies include: (i) the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA: a being‐left‐alone strategy); (ii) an ASEAN Hub RTA (a hub‐and‐spoke type of overlapping RTA strategy); (iii) the AFTA versus a China–Japan–Korea RTA (a duplicating or competing RTA strategy); and (iv) an ASEAN+3 RTA (an expansionary RTA strategy). We find that an expansionary ASEAN+3 RTA could be a sustainable policy option because the members’ gains would be significantly positive, with more equitably distributed gains between members than when using other strategies. The effect on world welfare would also be positive and the negative effect on nonmembers would not be very strong. More interestingly, if the East Asian countries cooperate with Pacific Basin countries to form an APEC‐level RTA, such as a free trade area of the Asia‐Pacific, the extension of the regional trade bloc might be considered a more desirable policy option than the proposed East Asian RTAs for East Asian economies, even though countries excluded from the free trade area of the Asia Pacific are worse off.  相似文献   

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