甘肃省金融发展与乡镇企业技术进步关系分析

文章基于Granger因果检验,对甘肃省金融发展与乡镇企业技术进步关系进行计量分析。结果显示,金融发展是乡镇企业技术进步的原因,同时乡镇企业技术进步也是金融发展的原因。据此提出,目前解决甘肃省乡镇企业尤其是中小乡镇企业的融资困境、推动金融发展及促进经济增长的根本渠道是在国家积极引导下,继续大力发展民间借贷。     

农业保险与农村信贷协同发展研究——以长三角为例

随着中国经济的腾飞与农村金融改革,我国的农业也迎来了快速发展的新机遇,但相应的农业保险和农村信贷制度尚未得到完善。文章通过单位根检验法、协整检验法和Granger因果检验法对江浙沪三省市的农业保险与农村信贷的发展关系进行研究,找出农业保险与农村信贷制度中存在的问题,并提出对策建议。     

港资对广东技术进步的影响分析

本文首先测算广东技术进步的基本情况,然后检验技术进步与来源地分别为香港特区、欧洲、美国、日本和其他地区的FDI及内资的Granger因果关系,找出与技术进步因果关系最强的变量,并围绕着这一变量进行协整分析,建立协整方程及误差修正模型。得出的结论是:港资与广东技术进步的因果关系最强,1988至2002年,港资是推动广东技术进步的最主要动力。而港资主要是通过技术溢出效应促进广东的技术进步。从长期来看,港资对广东技术进步的作用存在较大波动性,不能成为广东技术进步的可靠来源。     

加工贸易技术溢出效应的实证研究——以山东省为例

改革开放以来，我国加工贸易发展十分迅速。加工贸易的迅猛增长及其对国民经济的作用引起了人们越来越多的关注和研究。本文对山东省技术进步和加工贸易技术进步之间关系的实证分析发现，山东省技术进步率与加工贸易技术进步率之间存在一个长期的动态关系，并且山东的技术进步率与其加工贸易技术进步率之间呈现显著的正相关性；同时，Granger因果关系检验的结果表明，加工贸易技术进步是导致山东技术进步的原因，这说明，山东加工贸易具有明显的“技术溢出效应”。     

山西省农村金融发展对城乡居民收入差距的影响分析

通过农村金融效率、金融相关率、储蓄投资转化率等一系列指标衡量山西省农村金融发展水平,并基于协整检验、格兰杰因果关系检验、脉冲响应分析等理论,研究了山西省农村金融发展与城乡居民收入差距之间关系。研究结果表明：①协整检验表明农村金融效率、农村金融相关率、储蓄投资转化率与城乡居民收入差距之间存在协整关系;②格兰杰因果关系表明山西省农村金融效率、农村金融相关率是城乡居民收入差距的格兰杰原因,储蓄投资转化率与城乡居民收入差距彼此不是格兰杰原因;③脉冲响应分析表明,山西省农村金融效率、农村金融相关率对城乡居民收入差距的影响主要体现为长期正向效应,而储蓄投资转化率对城乡居民收入差距的影响相应较小。     

广东农业科技创新效率研究 ——基于超效率DEA模型和M almquist指数法

基于2010—2016年广东省各市的面板数据,运用超效率DEA模型和Malmquist指数法对广东农业科技创新效率和全要素生产率进行了实证分析。结果表明:广东省农业科技创新水平较高,但区域发展不平衡问题突出,粤北与珠三角、粤西、粤东有较大差距;广东全要素生产率指数平均值大于1,农业科技创新效率呈上升趋势,技术进步是全要素生产率增长的动力所在。因此,农业科技创新效率的提高关键在于提升农业技术水平,同时还需注意技术效率,科学调整农业科技资源配置,提升农业科技资源经营和管理水平。     

福建省农产品出口与农业经济增长关系的实证分析

改革开放以来,福建省的农产品出口和农业经济发展迅速,但两者之间的关系尚不明确。结合计量经济学的平稳性检验、协整检验和Granger因果检验等方法,我们对福建省的农产品出口和农业经济增长关系进行实证研究,结果表明农产品出口能促进农业经济增长,且两者互为Granger原因。最后,根据研究结果从产业发展、质量管理、人才培养和资金投入等方面提出了对策建议。     

海南热带农业发展的策略选择——基于“冬交会”的分析

"冬交会"的发展已成为海南热带农业发展的"晴雨表"与"方向标"。海南热带农业发展路径选择既要服务于国际旅游岛发展的战略实施,又要契合21世纪"海上丝绸之路"的国家战略。文章分析了"冬交会"影响海南热带农业发展的机理,运用E-views5.0对2007-2014年"冬交会"与海南热带农业发展相关数据进行了回归分析和Granger因果关系检验,分析结果表明:"冬交会"与热带农业发展间存在协整关系,"冬交会"是热带农业发展的Granger单向原因。在此分析基础上,探索有效推动海南热带农业发展的策略选择。     

甘肃省农村金融发展与农民收入关系实证研究

完善的金融体系对于农业经济发展、农民收入提升和农村社会进步至关重要。利用1990-2009年相关金融统计数据通过实证分析发现,甘肃省农村金融发展与农民收入之间存在着长期稳定的协整关系,农村金融发展对农民收入存在长期性促进作用,农村金融信贷促进了农民收入的增长,而农村储蓄对于农民收入的增加具有负效应。因此,积极发展农村金融市场,拓宽农民投资渠道,并不断加大对农村小额信贷的政策支持,提高农村金融企业融资能力,优化农村金融发展结构,仍然是未来时期甘肃省和类似欠发达区域农村金融发展支持农民收入提升的必要之举。     

金融发展不平衡与城乡收入差距关系的经验研究

根据中国金融发展不平衡的现实,金融发展指标可分解为城市金融发展规模、效率和农村金融发展规模、效率指标。本文基于VAR模型,利用1978-2004年的时间序列数据对我国当前的城乡金融发展不平衡与城乡收入差距,进行了协整关系检验,建立相应的VEC模型并进行了格兰杰因果关系检验和脉冲反应分析。得出结论:在我国当前金融发展不平衡的背景下,城市和农村金融发展规模的扩大和城市金融发展效率的提高是城乡收入差距持续扩大的格兰杰原因;农村金融发展效率的提高能够缩小城乡收入差距,两者存在统计学意义上的格兰杰因果关系。     

On the Major Transformation of the Asia-Pacific Regional Structure北大核心CSSCISSCI

Recent years have witnessedsignificant changes in the Asia-Pacific regionalstructure featuring the shift in power balance among related countries as well as adjust-ments in their respective regional strategies. So what is the prevailing trend in thistransformation and what kind of regional order will likely emerge in the future？ To an-swer these questions, the paper tries to explore the following dimensions： the evolvingregional context, shift in power balance and power conversion, geo-political and geo-e-conomic developments and interactions between them, and evolving regional order. Asthe study shows, the broadening of regional geographical scope, the rise in the numberof actors involved, as well as changesin the relations among them, have combined tocast a pluralistic and complex flavor to the regional structure. While the power balanceamong China, the United States and Japan shifts, and power conversion is also occur-ring. China and Japan are paying increasing attention to their security roles, whereasthe United States under the Obama administration laid more stress on expanding itsgeo-economic clout. In spite of the intensifying geopolitical competition among China,the United States and Japan in recent years, a Sino-US strategic compromise-whichholds the key to regional geopolitics-isother front, some kind of geo-economicmore likely to take place in the future. On thecooperation will probably emerge. In the longerterm, it will be the geo-economic trend thatwill prevail over the geopolitical trend inthe region. Finally, the future evolution of regional order wiI1 mainly follow the eco-nomic logic, accompanied by the dilutionof its hegemonic and hierarchical nature.Hence, a pluralistic and complex regional community will emerge.     

区域工业产业竞争力指标体系的构建及其评价方法研究

文章通过建立省级区域工业产业竞争力评价指标体系,设计竞争力模型,利用SPSS统计软件,对各省工业产业竞争力进行了评价测定。     

文化传播中电视暴力对青少年侵犯行为的影响

伴随当代传媒产业的蓬勃发展,暴力也成为影视艺术基本的叙事类型及消费主义文化日趋盛行的现实语境。＂电视暴力＂是作为＂媒介暴力＂的一个子概念存在的;从文化传播看电视暴力,其覆盖面大,且易于接触;电视暴力对受众特别是青少年的影响巨大而深刻。要从制作者、传播者和观众三个方面的自律出发,建立适应我国国情的影视分级制。     

理性与先验的完美整合——论笛卡尔的"上帝"观

笛卡尔是西方近代主体性哲学的先驱,是近代唯理论学说的创始人,他使人们从中世纪宗教势力的禁锢中解放了出来.虽然"上帝"这个被人们视为理性最大敌人的概念在他的哲学中大量存在,但他极力证明上帝存在的最终目的却是为了证明理性的伟大;作为真理化身的上帝,归根到底是为他的理性主义服务的.     

Organization and incentives in the age of sail

The British Navy in the age of sail was the most successful bureaucracy of its time. Its organization and incentive structures differed importantly from contemporaneous private sailing ventures, but closely resembled those of today’s large corporations. To induce efficient effort, the navy used a hierarchical tournament, in which sailors competed for higher pay that came with promotions based on relative performance. Promotion probabilities, the option value of future promotions, and the higher effort required of men in higher ranks and on larger vessels, combined to yield a highly skewed pay structure.     

The German Hanse and Bergen – new perspectives on an old subject

Abstract

The Hanseatic League and her kontors (trading posts) were an integral part of the medieval trade system in Northern Europe. Hanse merchants dominated many markets in this region and managed to maintain a monopoly-like role in towns like Novgorod and Bergen for many centuries. Consequently, one focus of historical research about the Hanseatic League lay on the mechanisms that enabled the Hanse merchants to keep that strong of a position for such a long time.

This article is part of the discussion about this topic. Based on Lübeck merchants with business interest in the Norwegian town of Bergen, the so-called Bergenfahrers (Bergen travellers), it will give new insights into the Hansards' economical and social organization. The three main points are (a) the integration of the Bergen market in the Hanseatic trade network as an intermediary trading place on the vivid East–West route of Hanse trade; (b) the importance of the Bergenfahrers within the Hanse merchants' economical, social and political networks; and (c) the structure of the Bergenfahrers network patterns in the late Middle Ages.

In addition to new insights into the important role of Bergen and the Bergenfahrers within Lübeck's and the other Wendish Hanse towns' trading system, this articles provides further proof for the usefulness of the methods of Social Network Analysis in medieval economic research.     

Financial Reporting and Trade Credit: Evidence from Mandatory IFRS Adoption*

We investigate the effect of mandatory IFRS adoption on trade credit. We document that firms in countries that adopt IFRS receive more trade credit from their suppliers, consistent with improved financial reporting quality and comparability playing a role in facilitating informal financing. This increase is larger for countries with a low level of societal trust, a poor pre‐IFRS‐adoption information environment, and stronger legal enforcement. These cross‐sectional results suggest that the conditions under which higher‐quality information is made publicly available affect suppliers' decisions to provide trade credit. This increase is also larger for firms with greater exposure to foreign markets, a finding that highlights the importance of more comparable international financial reporting standards in facilitating cross‐country trade credit. We also find that IFRS adoption has a stronger positive effect on trade credit for firms with greater liquidity needs. Finally, we find that firms in countries that adopt IFRS also extend more trade credit to their customers. Overall, our results support the notion that financial reporting can have a causal effect on trade credit.