中国股市收益和交易量动态引导关系的实证分析

实证检验沪深A、B股市场日收益和交易量之间的线性和非线性Granger因果关系。由于序列存在非线性结构可能使检验发现的仅是一种伪Granger因果。我们着重考察运用APGARCH模型过滤后股市收益和交易量之间的线性和非线性Granger因果。研究表明，上证A、B和深证A股市场收益和交易量之间互为线性Granger因果，深证B股仅存在从收益到交易量的线性Granger因果；上证A股市场交易量是收益的非线性Granger引导，深证B股市场收益和交易量之间互为非线性Granger引导。研究发现沪深A、B股市场收益和交易量之间具有相互的动态引导关系。     

零杠杆上市公司的股票长期收益趋势研究

与国际发达的资本市场类似,我国资本市场也存在企业零（低）杠杆现象。基于1992-2014年沪深两市全部A股上市公司的财务报表数据及股票收益数据,文章使用事件研究法与日历时间组合法,实证检验了零（低）杠杆公司的财务特征及股票长期收益情况。研究表明,我国A股市场中的零（低）杠杆现象呈现扩大化及增长趋势,且零（低）杠杆公司具有规模小、上市年限短、市账比高、投资水平低及盈利性好等共同特征。研究也发现相较非零（低）杠杆公司,连续三（五）年零（低）杠杆公司具有显著的长期超额收益,说明持续的极端财务保守政策对于股票收益具有重要的影响作用。     

Stock return seasonalities and investor structure: Evidence from China's B-share markets

This paper investigates whether seasonalities in daily stock returns are related to the trading behavior of individual and institutional investors. The change in the investor structure of B-share markets in Shanghai and Shenzhen after the abolition of ownership restrictions in 2001 provides a unique testing environment. We show that day-of-the-week effects are attenuated after the market entrance of Chinese individual investors who had previously not been allowed to trade in B-shares. Our empirical results suggest that institutional rather than individual investors are a main driving force behind such anomalies. In addition, we find evidence of reduced index return autocorrelation and US spillover effects in the post-liberalization period.     

Examining Stock Volatility in the Segmented Chinese Stock Markets: A SWARCH Approach

Abstract

This study adopts the SWARCH model to examine the volatile behavior and volatility linkages among the four major segmented Chinese stock indices. We find strong evidence of a regime shift in the volatility of the four markets, and the SWARCH model appears to outperform standard generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) family models. The evidence suggests that, compared with the A-share markets, B-share markets stay in a high-volatility state longer and are more volatile and shift more frequently between high- and low-volatility states. In addition, the relative magnitude of the high-volatility compared with that of the low-volatility state in the B-share markets is much greater than the case in the two A-share markets. B-share markets are found to be more sensitive to international shocks, while A-share markets seem immune to international spillovers of volatility. Finally, analyses of the volatility spillover effect among the four stock markets indicate that the A-share markets play a dominant role in volatility in Chinese stock markets.     

The relationship between liquidity and returns on the Chinese stock market

The goal of this paper is to examine the impact of liquidity on returns on the Shanghai stock exchange (SHSE) and the Shenzhen stock exchange (SZSE). We proxy liquidity with the trading volume (TV), the turnover rate (TR), and the trading probability (TP). Using daily data for the period January 1997 and December 2003, we find mixed results on the relationship between liquidity and returns. There is greater evidence of liquidity having a negative effect on returns on the SHSE than on the SZSE. However, this evidence is not robust across the three proxies for liquidity that we use.     

上市公司规模效应、节日效应与投资者交易时机

利用1996~2010年沪深A股按流通市值分组数据,实证研究了公司规模与节日效应的关系。结果表明:仅大规模组存在节前效应,任何一个规模组都存在节后效应;所有规模组的节前或节后收益率不存在显著差异,但最大和最小规模组的收益率差异存在节前效应,而非节后效应;星期效应、月度更替效应和风险不能完全解释节日效应。这说明规模因素仅能为节前效应提供一定的解释。     

Volatility and Volume in Chinese Stock Markets

The fact that stock market returns in Europe and the USA are characterised by conditional heteroscedasticity is by now well documented in a large literature. We address the question of whether the same is true of the four Chinese stock markets (Shanghai and Shenzhen A and B) over the period from 25 November 1994 to 27 April 2001. Using daily index data, we make two departures from the standard GARCH(1,1) model. First, we use exponential GARCH (EGARCH) to allow for asymmetry in the volatility, which may be present as a result of leverage effects. Second, we respond to evidence of two-way causality between volume and return (and return volatility) by introducing a simultaneous equation model of the relationship. The results of estimating the model indicate that asymmetry does not seem to be present to a significant degree, possibly as a result of lack of information or concern among Chinese investors. We find that volume appears to play a significant part in determining index volatility, which may reflect information arrival effects or may alternatively result from the direct impact of trading on volatility. At the same time, we also find that both the level of returns and their conditional variance have an impact on trade volume, probably because positive (negative) returns tend to attract (deter) investors into the markets.     

Who Plays the Key Role among Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong Stock Markets？

In this paper we examine the daily frequency stock market indices of Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong from January 2000 to June 2012, and use the Morlet wavelet coherence model to determine who is playing the most important role in the financial markets of China. We find that there are significant comovements between these stock markets in the medium and long run. This provides investors with opportunities to increase their capital gains. The Hong Kong stock market plays a leading role in the long run, but its leader position is threatened by fast‐growing Chinese mainland stock markets, especially the Shanghai Stock Exchange. Based on our analysis, the following suggestions apply to the Chinese stock markets: establish and improve international and regional finance centers in Chinese mainland; encourage more qualified institutional investors; reposition the market relations among Hong Kong, Shanghai and Shenzhen; and increase deregulation and internationalization to speed up the integration of financial resources.     

The co-movement of stock markets in East Asia: Did the 1997–1998 Asian financial crisis really strengthen stock market integration?

This paper examines the integration and causality of interdependencies among seven major East Asian stock exchanges before, during, and after the 1997–1998 Asian financial crisis. For this purpose, we use daily stock market data from July 1, 1992 to June 30, 2003 in local currency as well as US dollar terms. The data reveal that the relationships among East Asian stock markets are time varying. While stock market interactions are limited before the Asian financial crisis, we find that Hong Kong and Singapore respond significantly to shocks in most other East Asian markets, including Shanghai and Shenzhen, during this crisis. After the crisis, shocks in Hong Kong and Singapore largely affect other East Asian stock markets, except for those in Mainland China. Finally, considering the role of the USA shows that it strongly influences stock returns in East Asia – except for Mainland China – in all periods, while the reverse does not hold true.     

Are Fundamentals Priced in the Bond Market?*

To date, the discussion of the Lev and Thiagarajan 1993 fundamentals in the prior literature has been exclusively in the context of the stock market. Our study is the first to examine the value‐relevance of these fundamentals for default risk. By focusing on the market for new bond issues, we examine the value‐relevance of the fundamental score using expected rather than realized returns. Also, by focusing on the bond market we provide a different perspective than that brought by prior studies relying solely on stock prices. We find the fundamentals to be priced in the market for new bond issues as indicators of expected future earnings and to be value‐relevant in enabling the market to discern differences in bond credit quality over and above the published bond ratings.     

文化多样性与企业绿色创新

中国具有5000 多年的历史沉淀，文化是影响企业行为的重要非正式制度因素之一。基于此，聚焦中国情境，从文化多样性视角，选取2007-2018 年沪深两市A 股上市公司，利用城市方言分化指数度量地域文化多样性，探究非正式制度对企业绿色创新的影响。通过检验发现，文化多样性通过抑制企业高管的短视行为、激发本地人力资本创造力促进绿色创新。在非重点监控的污染企业、短期机构投资者持股比例更高的企业以及民营企业中文化多样性对绿色创新的促进作用表现的更加明显。同时，进一步考察了可能的内生性问题及可能的遗漏变量等问题后，研究发现依然稳健。研究有助于探究文化多样性的本质在企业治理场景中的映射，为从非正式制度角度理解企业绿色发展差异性提供了实证证据。     

The choice of financing with public debt versus private debt: New evidence from Japan after critical binding regulations were removed

The complete removal of binding regulatory constraints on bond issuance till 1993 provides an opportunity ripe enough to test hypotheses on the choice of financing with public debt and bank debt, comparing with the partial deregulation of Japanese financial markets in the late 1980s. Regardless of further deregulation, there is a U-turning to bank debt in Japan's corporate financing as the 1990s’ recession prolonging. In particular, we find high quality Japanese firms leave banks to the bond market, while low quality firms U-turn to bank debt. We also provide new evidence that Japanese banks tend to lend loans to wealthy firms. Because of a shift from equity-linked bond to straight bond during 1993–1997, our study provides a complement to evidence on financing choices of equity-linked public debt versus bank debt with the late 1980s’ bull stock market.     

Interactions of stock markets within the greater China economic bloc

This paper investigates what types of mutual relationships exist among the stock markets of the Greater China economic bloc, which include stock markets in Hong Kong and Taiwan, as well as stock markets in Shanghai and Shenzhen. Using the unit root test, co‐integration analysis, and vector error correction model (VECM), this paper analyzes interrelationships among daily stock indices for the period from the beginning of 1992 to the end of 2001. Test results indicate the existence of one co‐integrating vector, implying that a long‐run equilibrium relationship holds among the four stock indices. Variance decomposition of forecast errors provides evidence that the Shenzhen stock market is the market most heavily influenced by the unexpected variations of other markets in the Greater China economic bloc.     

除息日股票价格波动——基于国际市场的对比实证分析

本文探讨了四个不同地域(美国、英国、日本和中国)的资本市场在金融危机时期,其代表性的蓝筹股在除息日的价格波动行为。实证结果发现:在除息日,对于纽约和上海交易所,股票价格的下跌量等同于红利数额并且没有证据表明超额收益和短期交易的存在;对于东京交易所,股价下跌少于股息量,恰恰相反,伦敦交易所的股票下跌量超过股息额,这表明上述两个交易所的股票在除息日前后存在着异常收益和短期套利交易行为。     

US pressure on China: Silver flows, deflation, and the 1934 Shanghai credit crunch

US pressure for Chinese currency appreciation in the face of a weakening dollar was initially resisted in the post-2003 period. No such option was available in the 1930s, however, when dollar weakness was accompanied by silver purchases that automatically drove up the value of China's old silver-based currency. New empirical evidence suggests a significant link between the policy-induced driving up of US silver prices and Chinese exchange rate appreciation and price deflation. Moreover, the reversal of the silver flow into Shanghai as large-scale US purchases began in 1934 appears to have been met by a credit crunch in that city—as evidenced by bank failures, and real estate and stock market declines. The silver flow from the interior to Shanghai had previously insulated the financial center from the credit shortages faced elsewhere in China after deflation first emerged in 1932–1933.     

印花税政策调整对市场反应影响研究

文章使用中国A股市场的日数据检验了印花税税率的调整对市场流动性、市场的波动和股票异常收益率的影响.实证的结果表明,印花税税率的变化和市场流动性呈反向关系,但并不总是如此.与一般认知不同的是,无论印花税税率的增加还是减少都不会引起市场波动加剧.相应的,股票异常收益率对对印花税税率的变化也并不总是敏感的.基于上述实证结果,文章认为印花税并不是调控证券市场的有效政策工具.     

资本市场开放与企业创新——来自“沪深港通”的经验证据

为了考察资本市场开放对企业创新的影响，基于2010—2017年中国沪深A股上市公司数据，运用沪深港通的经验证据构建多期双重差分（DID）模型。研究发现：沪深港通的实施显著提升了企业的创新水平，但区分产权性质后发现，相比于民营企业，这种提升作用只显著存在于国有企业中；通过检验沪深港通政策对企业创新的具体影响路径，发现沪深港通能够通过缓解融资约束和增加股价信息含量两种路径促进企业创新。     

Seasonal Effect in Stock Market： Evidence from the Chinese Stock Exchange

In recent years, financial economists have provided much evidence of regularities in security market returns, and consequently the notion of market efficiency has been questioned. In this paper, seasonal effects are tested for the stock returns of Chinese A-share price index covering the period 1997-2005. The empirical research is conducted by using the conventional linear regression model. Finally the results obtained in this paper confirm the existence of the February effect and no evidence support for the day-of-the-week effects, and therefore these results provide some support of the informational efficiency aspect of the market efficiency.     

基于最小距离法和协整理论的投资策略研究

随着人民币国际化及A股市场的投资限制逐渐放宽，国内市场的股价波动性进一步加剧，增加了投资者的投资风险。在这种情况下，配对交易作为一种较为稳健的投资组合策略逐渐为投资者所青睐。将上证50指数中的银行成分股作为研究对象，以最小距离法对投资策略进行股票配对，并分别采用最小距离交易策略和协整理论交易策略进行交易绩效实测，对交易策略进行评估。研究发现：配对交易在国内市场可以获得良好的收益。     

环境不确定性对企业研发投入的影响——基于内部控制的调节作用

以2013—2020年深沪两市的A股非金融业上市公司为研究样本，实证分析环境不确定性、内部控制对企业研发投入的影响。研究发现，环境不确定性对企业研发投入产生显著正向影响，内部控制作为调节变量仅能强化环境不确定性与企业研发人员投入之间的正向关系。在低环境不确定性情况下，内部控制发挥的调节作用更为显著；内部控制五要素中信息与沟通要素起关键性作用。最后基于实证研究结论对企业和政府提出相应建议。