货币政策的信贷传导与我国商业银行体制改革

本文首先分析我国货币政策传导的现状是以信贷传导为主渠道,随后分析现有商业银行体制对信贷传导的制约,最后指出通过商业银行体制改革,才能提高货币政策传导的效率。     

中小企业信贷配给存在性的争论与实证检验方法探析

信贷配给与信贷资源配置、货币政策传导以及企业投资决策均密切相关,因此得到了大量关注,但是信贷配给是否显著仍然是理论界争论的问题。检验信贷配给是否存在不仅具有理论意义,而且对政府财政货币政策以及商业银行的信贷管理具有重要指导作用。当前我国大量中小企业受到信贷约束,严重制约了中小企业的发展,因此需要实证检验中小企业信贷配给是否存在。     

货币政策冲击对中小企业信贷约束影响的实证研究

中小企业融资难是国内外普遍存在的问题,其重要原因之一是商业银行对中小企业实行信贷配给,以致中小企业普遍面临较大的信贷约束。本文以此为出发点,利用向量自回归、格兰杰因果检验以及脉冲响应函数,对我国2010年1月至2013年7月的货币供应量、大型国有企业贷款总量、中小企业贷款总量的月度数据进行实证分析,结果表明我国货币政策传导过程中存在信贷渠道;且货币政策效应对国有企业和中小企业的非对称效应明显。     

信息不对称、信贷配给与我国货币政策传导

信贷渠道是我国货币政策传导的主要渠道。本文从信贷市场上信息不对称和信贷配给的角度分析了我国货币政策传导的障碍，信息不对称和信贷配给的存在影响货币政策效力的原因，并对货币政策传导机制的改进提出对策探讨。     

我国货币政策传导的有效性——基于四种途径的实证分析

货币政策的传导渠道一般分为货币和信贷两大渠道。本文采用相关系数、单位根检验、协整理论和格兰杰因果检验对我国转轨经济下2000～2007年季度数据进行实证分析,结果表明货币渠道或信贷渠道不能独立对货币政策的传导发挥作用而是需要共同作用影响经济总产出,且相比而言货币渠道更为重要。在转轨经济下,短期完善信贷渠道长期规划货币渠道成为提高货币政策传导有效性的关键。     

以我国房地产市场为载体的货币政策传导机制分析:1998-2010

本文在梳理货币政策的货币传导渠道和信贷传导渠道的基础上,对以房地产市场为载体的货币政策传导途径进行了总结,并采用我国1998年-2010年的相关数据对房地产市场的货币政策传导渠道进行了实证检验。本文认为我国房地产市场的投资规模和国内贷款对我国货币政策的中介目标存在显著正相关关系,对我国货币政策的最终目标的正相关关系不显著,并得出我国房地产市场对货币政策传导途径并不通畅的结论。在现阶段,我国对房地产市场的调控对引导宏观经济在预定目标区间内波动的作用不大。     

我国近年货币政策信贷传导有效性探析

我国近年货币政策实施的效果不是很显著。许多现有的文献大多是从货币政策的利率传导途径以及非货币资产价格传导途径上找原因。认为利率尚未市场化、资本市场和货币市场的发展滞后是很重要的制约因素。但从我国现实来看，要解除这些制约因素是个长期过程。信贷渠道仍然是当前货币政策传导的主机制。1998年初我国取消银行贷款规模限制也使得信贷渠道的传导发生了一些变化。因此．本文将结合近年来货币政策的实施，对我国货币政策传导的信贷传导途径作一些探讨。     

商业银行对货币政策的信贷行为反应与分布特征北大核心CSSCISSCI

本文研究了全国性商业银行、城市商业银行和外资银行对货币政策冲击的信贷行为反应与分布特征,发现货币政策仅对全国性商业银行的信贷供给有显著影响,且规模越大、股权资本越多的银行对货币紧缩姿态有更大的信贷行为反应,这隐含当银行业结构高度集中或监管当局实施严格的监管资本约束时,货币紧缩政策能较大地降低银行业的信贷供给。在政府普遍的隐性保险保护或支持下,全国性商业银行的储蓄资金均由准备性的"保险"储蓄构成,货币紧缩未能显著降低或改变其储蓄基础与构成,其信贷缩减与银行借贷渠道隐含的微观传导机制有所不同。在央行货币政策的冲击下,即使市场观测到的银行信贷供给有重大调整或变动,那很可能是在央行货币政策姿态的暗示或督导下,全国性商业银行对其信贷供给计划的主动调适,而非对其资金来源结构进行被动调整以适应信贷供给的需要。     

商业银行对货币政策的信贷行为反应与分布特征

本文研究了全国性商业银行、城市商业银行和外资银行对货币政策冲击的信贷行为反应与分布特征,发现货币政策仅对全国性商业银行的信贷供给有显著影响,且规模越大、股权资本越多的银行对货币紧缩姿态有更大的信贷行为反应,这隐含当银行业结构高度集中或监管当局实施严格的监管资本约束时,货币紧缩政策能较大地降低银行业的信贷供给。在政府普遍的隐性保险保护或支持下,全国性商业银行的储蓄资金均由准备性的"保险"储蓄构成,货币紧缩未能显著降低或改变其储蓄基础与构成,其信贷缩减与银行借贷渠道隐含的微观传导机制有所不同。在央行货币政策的冲击下,即使市场观测到的银行信贷供给有重大调整或变动,那很可能是在央行货币政策姿态的暗示或督导下,全国性商业银行对其信贷供给计划的主动调适,而非对其资金来源结构进行被动调整以适应信贷供给的需要。     

论环境变迁对我国货币政策传导渠道效率的影响

对我国货币政策传导渠道低效的问题，许多学者进行了有益的探索。本文认为，随着我国经济改革的深入，支撑我国传统的以信贷渠道为主的货币政策传导机制的环境条件发生了改变，是我国货币政策传导低效的主要原因。加快金融领域的改革，特别是利率市场化的改革，在完善信贷传导渠道的同时，尽快建立以货币渠道为主的传导机制，才是提高我国货币政策传导效率的有效途径。     

美联储货币政策对中国货币政策的溢出效应研究

文章主要研究了美国货币政策对中国货币政策的溢出效应,理论部分分析了在开放经济条件下两国模型关于货币政策跨国传输等相关问题。货币供给分为国内供给和外部输入,通过中央银行资产负债表中资产负债的变化可以分析外部货币的输入影响到基础货币的被动投放,在流通过程中由于乘数效应影响了货币供给量。外部货币的输入影响央行调控独立性的发挥,外部货币的输入容易形成对国内货币市场和产品市场某种程度的冲击,央行货币政策调控的难度增加。经验分析发现,美元输入对中国货币政策存在溢出效应,影响到中国的基础货币投放,影响到中国的货币政策的独立性以及执行的效果。     

开放条件下货币政策的资产价格传导机制研究

本文研究开放经济条件下货币政策在资本市场、汇率市场和商品市场之间的传导过程。文章首先构建了开放条件下货币政策的资产价格传导模型,并与传统货币政策传导模型进行比较分析,认为它更合适地解释了1999年后中国的货币政策传导机制。最后用VAR方法证明开放条件下货币政策的资产价格传导机制具有系统稳定性。     

The Balance Sheet and the Future of Fed Policy

The size of the Fed’s balance sheet has almost quadrupled since 2007, and the composition of the balance sheet has changed in important ways, with regard to both assets and liabilities. This short paper asseses the implications for how monetary policy works, and the entailed risks. The size of the balance sheet and its composition may not matter economically, but there are significant political risks. The political risk-taking may make monetary policy choices more difficult than they would otherwise be.     

货币政策与家庭金融资产异动的关联:1997～2009

我国货币政策在传导过程中存在明显的有效性缺失问题,家庭金融资产构成的差异与货币政策之间具有一定的效应关联。货币政策作用于按债务比与储蓄率组合划分的不同类型家庭会产生不同的效果,应在货币政策的选择中加以考量。建议完善社会保障和消费信贷制度,切实提高整体收入水平。     

Transmission mechanisms of conventional and unconventional monetary policies in open economies

This paper provides an empirical examination on the transmission mechanisms of conventional and unconventional monetary policies for two non-EMU countries, Switzerland and the United Kingdom, over the period 1990–2017. We investigate the role of stock prices and consumer expectations in the transmission of monetary policy. We propose two distinct structural VAR models. The model for the case of conventional monetary policy covers the pre-2009 period, while the model for the case of unconventional monetary policy covers the post-2009 period. The official bank policy rate and central bank’s reserve assets are used as instruments for conventional and unconventional monetary policy. The analysis reveals that the inclusion of a forward-looking informational variable of near-term development in economic activity and a financial variable such as the stock prices is of key importance for the monetary policy assessment. We provide evidence for the existence of a consumer confidence channel in the transmission of conventional monetary policy. Moreover, the long-term government bond yields, the exchange rate and stock prices have an important role in the transmission of unconventional monetary policy. Our findings indicate that conventional and unconventional monetary policies have short-run expansionary effects in both countries by increasing output, consumption, investment, stock prices and wages, while reducing unemployment.

     

Assets and Liabilities: When Do They Exist?

In this paper, we investigate whether the current references to probability in standard setters' conceptual definitions of assets and liabilities cause individuals to believe that the probability of a future transfer of economic benefits must be above some meaningful threshold for an asset or a liability to exist—a belief that is contrary to standard setters' intent. Results of multiple experiments indicate that the majority of individuals do use a high probability threshold to determine asset existence, whereas for liabilities the majority use a very low threshold. Thus, even under ceteris paribus conditions, liabilities are more frequently judged to exist than assets—a phenomenon analogous to accounting conservatism, as has been discussed in terms of the performance statement. These findings are robust to variation in formal training and in type of liability, and cannot be explained by alternative approaches to judging existence. Consistent with standard setters' intentions, results also suggest that their proposed changes to the definitions of assets and liabilities—changes that attempt to clarify the intended role of probability—do cause a greater proportion of participants to indicate that the relevant financial statement element (asset or liability) exists, relative to participants with no definition. Our study provides important insights for standard setters as they continue work on their missions to update their Conceptual Frameworks and for researchers regarding the role of conservatism on the balance sheet.     

货币供给、通货膨胀与产出波动的动态效应研究：1992—2013

本文基于包含随机波动率的时变参数向量自回归（SV—TVP—VAR）模型研究了货币供给冲击作用下我国货币政策传导的动态响应机制。实证结果表明：我国的货币传导机制具有明显的时变效应,SV—TVP—VAR模型能够很好的刻画货币传导机制中的时变特征。同时,货币政策传导机制中时变效应大于惯性效应。此外,我国的货币供给过程表现为逐渐增强的产出缺口驱动特征。进一步研究发现,增加货币供给量这种扩张性的货币政策在短期内具有真实效应,能够显著的影响实际利率和产出水平,然而从长期来看对实际利率和产出水平却缺乏永久性影响。     

Some Evidence on the Relevance of Bank Behaviour for the Lending Channel in The Netherlands

This paper studies the behaviour of Dutch banks. We test the adjustment of banks' balance sheets in times of monetary policy changes during the period 1957–1991. As a reaction to a policy change, banks basically have two alternatives to adjust their net money creation: (1) sell securities in public capital markets, and/or issue long-term liabilities, and (2) change domestic loan supply. If banks opt for the latter a lending channel may be relevant, even in a small open economy with a fixed exchange rate and a high degree of international capital mobility. We test for the effectiveness of both indirect and direct instruments of monetary policy. It turns out that in case of changes in the official interest rate, the volume of bank loans is not affected and that banks display a kind of buffer-stock behaviour by diminishing their publicly traded assets. In situations with quantity restrictions on the growth of net money creation, however, the volume of loans is affected significantly when the quantity restriction is withdrawn thereby fulfilling a necessary condition for the bank lending channel to be effective.     

Monetary Policy and Borrowers’ Loan Defaults: Research Based on Data from Renrendai

This paper uses Renrendai data to study the relationship between monetary policy and the default behavior of borrowers, and analyzes the transmission channels. The research shows that tight monetary policy will lead to a significant increase in a borrower's probability to default, and this effect will continue for several months. There may be two transmission channels: (i) monetary policy changes a debtor's liquidity through credit and balance sheet channels, which directly affects their current repayment behavior; and (ii) monetary policy may affect a borrower's investment, production and profitability, thus changing their long‐term solvency. The paper also finds that the repayment behavior of productive borrowers is more susceptible to monetary policy than consumptive borrowers, and that the default behavior of borrowers in coastal provinces is more susceptible to monetary policy than of borrowers in inland provinces. These findings provide new evidence for understanding how monetary policy affects individual behavior and its transmission mechanisms.