银行危机经济代价的影响因素研究

选取77个国家发生的89次银行危机为样本,分别以危机后的经济衰退程度和通胀成本作为银行危机经济代价的度量标准,采用简单线性回归模型对银行危机经济代价的影响因素进行了分析。研究发现,危机前的经常账户表现越差、房地产价格下降幅度越大,则危机后的经济衰退程度越严重。危机前的股票价格指数上涨越快,银行危机的通胀成本则越高。危机中政府财政支出的增加可以显著的降低危机后的经济衰退程度,危机中贬值策略的实施能够显著降低银行危机的通胀成本,危机中货币供应的增长则会显著提高危机后的通胀水平。     

商业银行服务小额收费行为的博弈研究

近年来,我国商业银行逐步改变了以往对存款、查询等个人业务实行免费的政策,开始对这些服务项目采取小额收费。本文用博弈论方法对银行的小额收费和消费者行为进行了经济学分析,认为银行小额收费虽然符合市场经济的特征,但其定价行为需要规范,并就此提出应当实行价格听证制度和最低服务制度,同时建议政府出台政策鼓励银行机构创新和银行业务创新。     

图景动态博弈分析法在中外资银行网上人民币业务竞争战略选择中的应用

将图景分析思维模式和动态博弈模型理论结合分析竞争双方在战略制定过程中的博弈过程和可能性结论的这一方法目前成为国外战略管理领域新兴出现的热点。由于网上银行和人民币业务将成为入世后中外资银行的主要金融营运手段和竞争业务 ,因此本文选取中外资银行入世后网上人民币     

建立存款保险制度的博弈分析与我国的选择

存款保险制度对一个国家金融体系的稳定具有一定的作用。文章用一个完全信息的动态博弈模型对建立存款保险制度防止银行挤兑的机理进行探讨,结合我国的实际对我国建立存款保险制度的选择提出了建议,认为现在是建立存款保险制度的最佳时机。     

资产证券化中信用评级机构道德风险研究——基于演化博弈分析

首先针对信用评级机构在资产证券化中的重要作用,分析了信用评级机构道德风险对资产证券化产生的不良影响,并由此论述了信用评级机构的道德风险产生原因;其次通过构建信用评级机构博弈支付矩阵,运用演化博弈论对评级机构的演化趋势做出分析,得到其演化的三种不同的稳定策略;最后从建立声誉机制、保证评级机构独立性、加强监管力度三个方面给出政策建议。     

Do Interest Rate Liberalization and Fintech Mix? Impact on Shadow Deposits in China

In this paper we attempt to characterize the stability of shadow deposits in China with interest rate liberalization and fintech developments. We emphasize that shadow banks provide higher but riskier returns and such characteristics affect the stability of shadow deposits. In our setting, the stability of shadow deposits is influenced by two offsetting effects, namely: the patience effect, which makes investors more willing to wait because of the potentially higher returns; and the uncertainty effect, which makes investors more likely to withdraw as a result of higher risk. Under liberalized interest rates, the patience effect will erode and the uncertainty effect will be heightened because the post‐liberalization higher return of traditional banks undermines the importance of the extra return of shadow deposits to depositors, while preserving the importance of the risk aspect. Fintech development is modeled as a reduction in the withdrawal cost that facilitates runs. This affects the stability of shadow deposits because of their wider fintech reliance. Regulators should be cautious in pushing interest rate liberalization and fintech application alongside building a safety net for shadow banking.     

International environmental agreements under different evolutionary imitation mechanisms

This paper explores how the formation and stability of international environmental agreements vary with two often adopted mechanisms: imitating-the-best-average and imitating-the-best-total rules. We first show that the possible long-run equilibria of two dynamics are the same. They are countries' full participation, no-participation, and the two equilibria combined. However, the occurring conditions of these equilibria under two dynamics may differ. Then, we prove that countries' full participation is more likely to be long-run equilibrium in international environmental agreements when imitating-the-best-average rule is adopted. Moreover, all findings of this study hold whatever the function forms of countries' abnoatement benefits and costs are, and are unaffected by the positive affine transformation of countries' total payoffs.     

江苏省银行业发展与经济增长关系实证分析

依据金融发展与经济增长相关理论,以江苏省为研究对象,选取1995-2012年的年度数据,以实际人均GDP、银行业规模和银行业效率等变量来衡量经济增长与银行金融机构发展的关系。结果表明：江苏省银行业规模与经济增长之间呈正相关关系,而银行业效率与经济增长间呈负相关关系。基于实证分析结果,提出江苏银行业发展的相关建议。     

中国银行业集中度与经济增长关系的实证研究

本文利用1989～2003年的银行数据和经济增长数据,分析了中国银行结构与经济增长之间的关系。其中,选用四大国有银行的市场份额CR4即贷款、存款和资产反映的市场集中度指标衡量银行结构,选用GDP的变动率衡量经济增长。通过单位根检验和协整检验发现,只有CR4资产即用资产反映的银行结构与经济增长之间存在长期稳定关系,对这两个变量继续作相关分析和格兰杰因果检验,发现银行集中度是经济增长的格兰杰原因,但做相反的检验,结论并不能成立。根据中国自身的特点并结合国外的银行结构变迁经验,本文探讨了现阶段适合中国经济增长的银行结构。     

中国银行业结构变迁及现状

银行机构不管在日本和德国等银行主导的金融体系中还是在美国和英国等市场主导型的金融体系中都发挥着重要作用,对于发展中国家而言银行的经济功能更加显著。本文分析了中国银行业结构的变迁及现状,透视中国银行业结构存在的问题,以期建立对中国经济增长最有利的银行业结构。     

Relating Product Prices to Long‐Run Marginal Cost: Evidence from Solar Photovoltaic Modules

A basic tenet of microeconomics is that for a competitive industry in equilibrium the market price of a product will be equal to its marginal cost. This paper develops a model framework and a corresponding empirical inference procedure for estimating long‐run marginal cost in industries where production costs decline over time. In the context of the solar photovoltaic (PV) module industry, we rely primarily on firm‐level financial accounting data to estimate the long‐run marginal cost of PV modules for the years 2008–2013. During those years, the industry experienced both unprecedented price declines and significant expansions of manufacturing capacity. We compare the trajectory of average sales prices with the estimated long‐run marginal costs in order to quantify the extent to which actual price declines were attributable to reductions in production costs. The trajectory of estimated product costs is then extrapolated to forecast an equilibrium trend line for future PV module prices.     

WTO框架下两岸银行业合作现状与趋势及对策探析

尽管受到政治因素和经济因素的影响和制约,大陆与台湾银行业合作仍存在不少障碍,但在WTO框架下,随着两岸经贸合作关系不断加深,两岸银行业的合作将势不可挡.要充分利用WTO规则,加强和规范两岸银行业的交流与合作,朝建立两岸银行业全面的战略伙伴关系和金融合作试验区的方向努力.     

论储备土地抵押贷款风险与对策

目前,我国各地都陆续建立了土地储备机构,储备土地贷款随之逐渐发展起来,各商业银行也把该业务作为房地产金融业务的创新点和一个营销重点。这在推动我国土地市场的发育和完善以及不动产融资方面起到了积极的作用。但由于储备土地抵押处于不断发展和完善之中,储备土地抵押信贷风险也同时存在。本文在简述储备土地抵押历史沿革的基础上对储备土地抵押风险进行了系统分析,并提出了相应的防范对策。     

Designing a central bank: Social player,monetary agent,or banking agent?

This paper reviews recent advances on the role of the central bank in the money supply process and its effects on inflation. The literature is presented according to a three-stage process, with the central bank acting first as social player, then as monetary agent, and finally as a combined monetary and banking agent.     

Non-monetary dimensions of well-being in South Africa, 1993–2004: A post-apartheid dividend?

Existing studies on shifts in income welfare in South Africa since the demise of apartheid suggest that income inequality increased, while headcount poverty rates declined since 2000, after some evidence of an increase or no change in poverty in the 1995–2000 and 1996–2001 periods. This study provides an analysis of the shifts in non-income welfare that have occurred in South Africa between 1993 and 2004. We use factor analysis to construct an asset index as a measure of non-income-based welfare. Variables reflecting household access to a range of services and assets are used in the construction of the index. Significantly different results emerge when non-income welfare shifts are considered: we show statistically significant decreases in the headcount asset poverty rates between 1993 and 2004 across a range of covariates. Finally, asset inequality decreased significantly between 1993 and 2004 – in stark contrast to results based on consumption data.     

发展中国家的政府与利率的决定

本文主要阐述了打击逃废债、维护金融债权的现实意义很强的问题。文章首先介绍了现今企业逃废债严重的基本情况 ,列举了企业通过破产、租赁等方式逃废债的主要类型 ,剖析企业大量逃废债的形成原因 ,最后作者有针对性地提出了防止和打击企业逃废债的有力措施。     

Liquidity provision and optimal bank regulation

We extend the set of regulatory instruments for banks' liquidity provision by adding a policy instrument for controlling the fraction of perfectly-liquid accounts. We demonstrate how this instrument induces self-selection on behalf of depositors who are differentiated according to their probability of facing a liquidity shock. This self-selection leads to a market segmentation, which can break the bundling of deposits with liquidity risk and, thereby, enhance welfare. The optimal regulatory policy is explicitly characterized as a function of banks' investment return, and of depositors' gain from early withdrawals to fund a realized investment opportunity.