Is it really more dispersed?

The ECB’s one size monetary policy is unlikely to fit all euro area members at all times, which raises the question of how much monetary policy stress this causes at the national level. I measure monetary policy stress as the difference between actual ECB interest rates and Taylor-rule implied rates at the member state level. These rates explicitly take into account the natural rate of interest to capture changes in trend growth. I find that monetary policy stress within the euro area has been steadily decreasing prior to the recent financial crisis. Current stress levels are not only lower today than in the late 1990s, they are also in line with what is commonly observed among U.S. states or pre-euro German Länder.     

Whatever happened to the Kuznets curve? Is it really upside down?

Kuznets (1955) embarked on a research program whose goal was to find the determinants of the long run levels and trends in income inequality and the relationship between income inequality and economic growth. Recently a small body of theoretical work has developed which tries to obtain the inverted U hypothesis as an equilibrium outcome in dynamic general equilibrium model. One of the types of general equilibrium models which can deliver a Kuznets curve is a model which allows for persistent migration out of one sector, e.g. agriculture, into another—e.g., manufacturing. Most industrialized countries have not only experienced shifts from agriculture to manufacturing, but also into services, especially associated with information technologies. This is responsible for the rise in inequality. If such a model of the arrival of new opportunities is correct, we would not expect to find a Kuznets curve, right side up or up-side down. Here we review the empirical evidence regarding the Kuzuets curve.     

Dutch Disease Scare in Kazakhstan: Is it real?

In this paper we explore the evidence that would establish that Dutch disease is at work in, or poses a threat to, the Kazakh economy. Assessing the mechanism by which fluctuations in the price of oil can damage non-oil manufacturing—and thus long-term growth prospects in an economy that relies heavily on oil production—we find that non-oil manufacturing has so far been spared the perverse effects of oil price increases from 1996 to 2005. The real exchange rate in the open sector has appreciated over the last couple of years, largely due to the appreciation of the nominal exchange rate. We analyze to what extent this appreciation is linked to movements in oil prices and oil revenues. Econometric evidence from the monetary model of the exchange rate and a variety of real exchange rate models show that the rise in the price of oil and in oil revenues might be linked to an appreciation of the U.S. dollar exchange rate of the oil and non-oil sectors. But appreciation is mainly limited to the real effective exchange rate for oil sector and is statistically insignificant for non-oil manufacturing.

Where has the rum gone? The impact of maritime piracy on trade and transport

Review of World Economics - Despite a general agreement that piracy poses a significant threat to maritime shipping, empirical evidence regarding its economic consequences remains scarce. This...     

The establishment of the danish windmill industry—Was it worthwhile?

The paper examines the welfare effects of the Danish subsidies granted for the electricity production from wind power. This policy has induced a remarkable development of the Danish windmill industry resulting in a dominant position on the world market. The article demonstrates a strong learning-by-doing productivity growth in the Danish windmill industry and it analyzes the costs and benefits of this infant industry case. The costs consist of the efficiency loss from diverting electricity production from using fossil fuels to utilizing wind power. Benefits are the reductions in the environmental damage of using fossil fuels, however, the main benefits are related to the emergence of a new export sector. As the value of the windmill firms at the stock exchange by far exceeds that of the accumulated distorted losses in electricity production, this case demonstrates a successful infant industry strategy. JEL no. D2, L5, L6     

From Skills Revolution to Productivity Miracle--Not as easy as it Sounds?

This article surveys the potential impact of skill on productivity.It opens with a review of the utility of productivity as a measureof systemic economic performance, and then goes on to explorethe oft-assumed close and strong relationship between skillsand productivity. The importance of other factors and typesof investment is stressed. These complementary elements maybe at least as important as skill in boosting performance, andtheir absence may negate the impact of public investment ineducation and training. The ability of economic developmentpolicy, particularly as it relates to the Regional DevelopmentAgencies, to address skills and economic development is assessed,and questions are raised about what type and level of skillmight have the largest impact on economic performance. In conclusion,we discuss the demands that new policy approaches are makingupon the machinery and personnel of government. Footnotes ¹ E-mail addresses: keepej{at}cardiff.ac.uk; ken.mayhew{at}pmb.ox.ac.uk;paynej3{at}cardiff.ac.uk     

Public assets and services delivery in South Africa: Is it really a success?

Poverty alleviation remains a pressing concern for South African policy-makers. Implementing effective anti-poverty policies requires a clear understanding of the nature and extent of poverty. The extant literature on South African poverty dynamics shows a decline in the headcount ratio over the first decade of the twenty-first century. However, the prior research largely adopts a narrow money-metric approach, or uses multi-dimensional indices that include welfare indicators based on private assets (e.g. television sets) or those that are provided publicly (e.g. access to water). This paper uses multiple correspondence analysis to measure non-income poverty trends for the period 2005–12. The novelty in this undertaking lies in an attempt to include a measure of the perceived quality of public assets and services to complement the standard indices. This provides some measure of ‘success’ of public service delivery, accounting for both changes in access and quality.     

Quality choice: Does it matter which workers own and manage the cooperative firm?

The information age and the spread of information technology has implications for organizational structure. Accordingly, the age-old issues of product and service quality are put into a new perspective. It is this new perspective that compels analysis and contrast of the joint quality and output choices of a labor-managed (LM) firm with those of its entrepreneurial (PM) twin. It is shown that the LM firm's behavior regarding quality and quantity depends on which workers own and manage the firm and on the way that marginal profit with respect to output is influenced by quality. Similarly, the effects of increases in either fixed costs or demand depend on who owns and manages the LM firm and on the relationship between marginal profit and quality. Thus, whether a cooperative will outperform or underperform its PM counterpart depends on the particulars of the situation. An earlier draft of this paper was presented at seminars at Academia Sinica in Taipei and the Chinese University of Hong Kong. The authors are grateful to the participants in those seminars and most especially to Professors C. C. Mai, Eden Yu, and Dr. Li Tianyou, as well as to an anonymous referee for their comments and helpful suggestions. The authors are responsible for the final version.     

Where is the balance? Implications of adopting Special Products and Sensitive Products in Doha negotiations for world and China's agriculture

This paper analyzes the potential impacts of the agreements of Special Products and Sensitive Products (SPs) in Doha negotiations on world and China's Agriculture. By linking a global trade model to a national policy model which itself is connected to a set of disaggregated household data, we are able to assess the effects of the inclusion of SPs into a Doha agreement on agriculture in China and the rest of the world and different farmers across China. Our results show that since the inclusion of SPs in a Doha agreement adds more protection in agriculture, the total quantity of resources used in world agriculture increases. Although increasing, it is important to note that the total rise is only a fraction of a percent of agricultural value added and the gains to rural income per capita are likewise small. Moreover, an important difference between the apparent benefits of SPs is highlighted when they are considered for one country alone and when they are made available to all WTO members. The benefits to agriculture in China (and other countries) from increases in protection resulting from SPs are typically offset when these flexibilities are made available to all countries. While there are some positive benefits for certain vulnerable groups in society (in China), we show that there are adverse effects on equity and the impacts differ largely among regions.     

Is the European union a natural currency area, or is it held together by policy makers?

Is the European Union a Natural Currency Area, or Is It Held Together by Policymakers? — In 1999, EMU started with 11 members, but with considerable uncertainty about the depth of the convergence between them. The optimal currency area literature stresses the need for shocks which are symmetric and of similar size across countries. Our results show that symmetries in the core are only marginally stronger than those in the periphery; and that these symmetries have been increasingly maintained by policy interventions. Consequently, Europe may evolve into an optimal currency area; but the symmetries will be policy-induced rather than a market phenomenon. This suggests a fragility which could be reflected in the value of the new currency.     

耐克：“Just do it”

“JUST DO IT”——耐克的这句话,大概是体育用品里最著名的广告语,不仅在中国.世界各地都能见到它的身影。配合诸多的体育明星.＂JUST DO IT＂给青年人营造了一种痛快淋漓的酷感。 这句话翻成中文到底是什么意思？耐克似乎也一直没有给出标准答案,有一段的解释是“想做就做”,而最新的演绎是“放胆做”。     

An Assessment of the Singapore Skills Development System: Does it Constitute a Viable Model for Other Developing Countries?

In this paper, we briefly describe the institutional background of Singapore's successful national skills development model. We devise a tentative framework to evaluate national level skills development efforts, and we use it to assess the Singapore model. We argue that the model has the potential to move constantly toward higher skills equilibria. We question however, the long-term sustainability of the model, and whether it is transferable to other developing countries. We conclude with some principles that other countries might use in organizing their own skills development systems.     

耐克:"just do it" 经纬

"JUST DOIT"——耐克的这句话,大概是体育用品里最著名的广告语,不仅在中国,世界各地都能见到它的身影.配合诸的体育明星,"JUST DOIT"给青年人营造了一种痛快淋漓的酷感.