What can be learned from China’s success?

Since 1978, China has experienced the most rapid economic growth of any country in world history, and the most rapid growth in living standards of any major economy. Following the latest international financial crisis, China outperformed any other major economy – from the second quarter of 2007 to the second quarter of 2014, China’s economy grew by 78% and the USA by 8%. In a single generation, China has gone from a ‘low income economy’ to the verge of achieving ‘high income’ status by World Bank criteria. Achieving this would double the population living in ‘high income’ economies globally. This extremely rapid development is sometimes explained in terms of unique ‘Chinese characteristics’, but research over the last 30 years suggests it is rooted in universal economic processes. While the combination of global forces producing economic growth is unique in China and produces unique ‘Chinese characteristics’, they can operate throughout the world economy. If other developing economies could achieve the scale of China’s economic success, global problems of poverty and its consequences would be solved. China’s policy response to the international financial crisis was far more effective than that of other major economies. This paper examines the chief strategic lessons to be drawn from China’s success.     

The Rise (and Decline?) of Arab Aid: Generosity and Allocation in the Oil Era

Among non-DAC donors, wealthy Arab states are some of the most prolific contributors of foreign aid. Despite this, relatively little is known about Arab foreign aid. The OECD development database offers a paucity of information, aggregating data for “Arab countries” and “Arab agencies,” without identifying the constituent units of either. A further complication is that Arab donors are not uniformly transparent about their aid efforts, publicizing some of them while keeping other donations secret. In this paper, we advance the state of knowledge of Arab foreign aid in a number of ways. We use AidData to document the trends in reported donations from specific bilateral donors (Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates) and multilateral agencies (Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development, Arab Bank for Economic Development in Africa, OPEC’s Fund for International Development, and the Islamic Development Bank). Notably, Arab bilateral donors have given less generously over time with aid levels remaining relatively stable despite skyrocketing national wealth. We explore reasons for this decline, including that Arab donors have: shifted their giving from bilateral to multilateral channels, given less as DAC donors have given more, and increased domestic spending at the expense of foreign aid with a view to safeguarding regime security. In addition, we look at the sectoral allocations of Arab bilateral and multilateral organizations, and compare the aid practices of Arab donors to their DAC counterparts. Finally, we suggest why an exclusive focus on aid commitments is problematic where Arab aid is concerned.     

论加快我国商业银行碳金融业务创新的对策

自上世纪90年代末碳金融活动兴起以来,全球碳金融市场已经不断发展壮大,中国的碳金融交易也日益活跃,做为碳金融市场的重要参与主体,我国商业银行只有不断地创新才能在更好地为低碳经济服务的同时提升自身的综合竞争力。本文通过对我国商业银行开展碳金融业务现状的分析,提出了加快其碳金融业务创新的对策。     

Has China displaced the outward investments of OECD countries?

As China has rapidly emerged as one of the world's largest investors abroad, there has been a hectic debate in the literature on whether its emergence as a major foreign investor may have undermined the importance of western industrialised economies, including those in the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). This paper aims to investigate whether this is the case. The study uses a panel dataset covering 155 countries, including 33 in the OECD, where China had invested during 2003–09. This is by far the most comprehensive dataset of China's outward foreign direct investment (OFDI). A two-stage least squared (TSLS) regression approach is adopted for our econometric models according to an established augmented gravity model in the literature. The empirical results show clear evidence that China's OFDI displaces that of the OECD countries, but the argument that China's emergence is a ‘new colonialism’ is not supported as OECD countries' OFDI in resource abundant host countries, particularly that in Africa and Latin America, does not appear to have been displaced by China's OFDI.     

中国平安并购深发展的经济后果研究

文章从资本市场的市场反应和财务指标变动趋势来检验该并购的经济后果。研究发现,在并购公告期间中国平安的累计超额收益率跑赢了大市,投资者看好这次并购事件;从财务指标变动趋势发现,中国平安和深发展的盈利能力稳健,成长能力和营运能力逐渐增强,企业现金流顺畅,财务风险水平下降,长期将产生协同效应。并购双方达到了双赢的经济后果,利好双方。案例启示：并购为金融企业分散经营风险、实现综合经营和实现外延式增长提供机会;综合经营战略下我国金融企业可以适时稳健地开展并购在内的资本运作。     

Not an ordinary bank but a great engine of state: The Bank of England and the British economy, 1694–1844

From its foundation as a private corporation in 1694, the Bank of England extended large amounts of credit to support the British private economy and to support an increasingly centralised British state. The Bank helped the British state reach a position of geopolitical and economic hegemony in the international economic order. In this paper, we deploy recalibrated financial data to analyse an evolving trajectory of connections between the British economy, the state, and the Bank of England. We show how these connections contributed to form an effective and efficient fiscal–naval state and promote the development of a system of financial intermediation for the economy. This symbiotic relationship became stronger after 1793. The evidence that we consider here shows that although the Bank was nominally a private institution and profits were paid to its shareholders, it was playing a public role well before Bagehot's doctrine.     

全球智能制造产品贸易的新格局及中国应对策略研究

为系统分析当前全球智能制造产品贸易发展格局,塑造我国智能制造产品对外贸易的竞争优势,文章基于2010-2019年80个智能制造产品主要贸易国的多边贸易数据,借助社会网络分析法对现阶段智能制造产品世界贸易发展态势及中国的贸易地位进行研究。实证结果表明,当前我国智能制造产品与世界其它国家之间的网络密度和互惠性较强,在全球智能制造产品贸易社会网络中的中心性程度较高,且聚集系数的结果近年来呈现出上升趋势。当前全球智能制造产品贸易存在明显的"去中心化"发展趋向,我国逐渐成为智能制造产品贸易体系中的重要一极。并基于实证分析结果,提出旨在增强我国智能制造产品贸易竞争力与话语权的实践策略。     

我国央行票据冲销操作的实证研究

随着我国外汇储备的激增,近几年,央行票据已经成为中央银行进行冲销操作、回收基础货币最重要的手段。通过运用VAR模型对央行票据冲销操作进行实证检验,研究表明:央行票据的货币冲销效果在短期内是非中性的,它通过影响基础货币和货币市场利率作用于货币供给量;长期内央行票据冲销操作对货币供给量的影响趋于中性,不具有可持续性。     

福建构建海西创意城市的要素分析与实践探索

21世纪创意已成为全球经济发展与繁荣的源动力,伴随技术的创新和创意产业链的不断完善,创意城市应运而生。本文以创意城市的源泉为切入点,以海西创意城市构建为背景,深入分析了当前福建发展创意城市的五大影响因素,并在此基础上提出推动海西创意城市发展的若干实践措施。     

The North Korean economy seen by satellite: Estimates of national performance,regional gaps based on nighttime light

External estimates must be used to assess North Korea’s economy because Pyongyang authorities withhold economic statistics. The Bank of Korea’s figures are considered the most widely employed estimates. However, they have several limitations. This paper estimates North Korea’s economic growth over a more than 20-year period, by analyzing the nighttime lighting, as recorded by orbiting satellites. The data is more objective and reliable than other data used to evaluate the North Korean economy. It indicates steady growth after 2000, contradicting Bank of Korea estimates. The methodology also has the advantage of being able to gauge regional economic activity. Performance varied widely among regions, the result of internal factors such as market activities and external factors such as trade with China and economic cooperation with South Korea.     

人民币升值经济影响的根源及政策建议

中国人民银行自2010年6月份重启汇改,人民币再次呈现逐步升值态势,且在可预见的未来这一趋势还将持续。在当前全球经济复苏前景不明的情况下,特别需要注意人民币升值对经济产生的负面影响,以及对策。本文依据一般均衡的分析框架,从完全竞争市场假设出发,再根据中国国情逐渐放松假设条件,发现人民币升值并不必然令我国经济受损,其根源在于普遍存在的劳动力市场分割。据此提出的政策建议是,在继续推进人民币汇率形成机制改革的同时,要通过持续政策努力来打破劳动力市场分割的局面。     

The Role of Innovation in Upgrading in Global Value Chains

ABSTRACT

We examine the role of innovative efforts in industries from the perspective of global value chains (GVCs). We set up a simple model and empirically test it using patent and bilateral export decomposition data. The model shows that innovative activities assumed to decrease the cost of conducting high-skilled tasks can upgrade the position of the industry in GVCs. This is also supported by data on patents and GVC-related data from the OECD and the Asian Development Bank. The empirical results reveal that a higher number of patent applications are closely related to more production of intermediate goods rather than assembly.     

Rules versus discretion in Central Bank communication

We propose a theoretical framework to study Central Bank communication and to assess the benefits of commitment to a disclosure rule. Our model features a coordination environment, where agents have dispersed private information and their interests are not aligned with those of the Central Bank. Public information can lead to undesirable coordination among agents. We show that anything goes when the Central Bank cannot commit; both its most and least preferred outcomes can be supported in equilibrium, and so can anything in between. We find that commitment does not necessarily implement the Central Bank's most preferred outcome. However, the Central Bank can avoid the least desirable outcomes by choosing an information structure with only two messages that act as action recommendations for agents. Furthermore, our results suggest a higher correlation between fundamentals and outcomes under commitment.     

中国与世界贸易组织争端解决机制:评估和展望

在多边框架内有效解决贸易争端是中国申请加入世界贸易组织的主要动机之一。作者分析了中国"入世"10年来参与世界贸易组织争端解决活动的具体情况,重点讨论了两个关键性问题:世界贸易组织的争端解决机制能否有效预防成员对协定的违反,维护中国的贸易利益?其他世界贸易组织成员在使用争端解决机制时是否存在针对中国的"好讼"倾向?作者认为,随着经济实力的增长、国际经济交往的加深和对争端解决活动日益积极的参与,中国利用国际经济规则来遏制他国针对性贸易保护主义行为的能力相应增强。在世界贸易组织框架下,中国国际经济地位的相对变化是出现针对中国"好讼"现象的重要原因。因为国家间经济地位的相对变化改变了相互间合作的收益,在多哈回合进展有限的情况下,其他成员希望通过世界贸易组织的申诉强制实施更高水平的国际合作。在信息不对称条件下,出口额和贸易平衡状况等现有观测指标的缺陷进一步加强了其他成员对中国的关注,提高了其对中国申诉的可能性。此外,世界贸易组织成员政府对特定部门利益的偏重以及对争端解决机制的策略性使用都从不同途径提高了贸易伙伴对中国申诉的动力。     

新冠疫情对中美经贸关系的影响与应对措施

当前,新冠疫情已经演化为"全球性大流行病",对全球经济的威胁和冲击性影响已经变为现实问题。全球新冠疫情的蔓延和升级,很有可能对既有的全球价值链分工和贸易体系造成重要的冲击性影响,迫使地区性生产贸易网络体系发生被动式调整。全球新冠疫情在短期内会对中美经贸关系造成重大影响,从中长期来看,中美之间经贸关系取决于双方战略竞争格局和博弈结果。当前中国新冠疫情已经到了基本可控的阶段,进入刺激国内需求全面恢复的状态,必须充分利用刺激内需政策谋求中国经济在全球主要经济体中率先走出危机的这个先发优势,将之作为应对美国针对中国经济发起的战略竞争和遏制战略的重要手段。     

中国的和平崛起与中美关系的思考

随着中国的综合国力增强,中国经济总量接近美国经济总量的时候,美国加紧构建重返亚太地区新战略即再平衡战略,对和平崛起的中国进行战略上的遏制。中美两国关系的冲突的本质到底是什么?中国应该怎样应对美国这种再平衡战略?本文认为应坚持以经济建设为中心的战略思想不能变;要加强国防力量的建设;要积极备战,加强军事训练;要开展多边外交。     

China and the World Trade Organization

For nine long years China made determined but unsuccessful efforts to rejoin GATT, having gone through 21 rounds of protracted negotiations. China failed to become a founding member of WTO when it superseded GATT in January 1995. In 1989 GATT was about to work out the final terms of protocol for China's entry as a reforming socialist economy. But the Tiananmen event made the developed country members, led by the US, politicize the issue of China's membership. They also wanted to prise open the vast China market as a condition for China's entry; i.e. China to be admitted as a developed economy. China for its part regarded the price of its WTO membership as too exorbitant without being allowed a reasonable timetable for adjustment. Minister Wu Yi considered the US demands ‘absolutely unacceptable’. Hence the impasse over China's WTO membership continued. Apart from the imperative of trade diplomacy, however, the perceived benefits of WTO membership to China are difficult to capture. They are mainly general and long-term in nature, e.g. facilitating China's further economic reform and integrating China into the global economy. However, the costs and risks to China could be considerable, much depending on the exact protocol terms of China's membership. In general many state-owned enterprises and township-village enterprises would suffer from stiffer foreign competition. The effect of WTO on Chinese agriculture would be minimal, while the impact on the manufacturing sector could be quite disruptive. The service sector could fare even worse if no protective measures were to be taken. That explains why China needs to insist on developing-country terms of entry. Without doubt, China will eventually accede to WTO. It is a gross anomaly for this global multilateral trade body to continue excluding China, the world's 11th largest trading nation, on which also hinge the two other great trading entities of Hong Kong and Taiwan. There is increasing awareness of this point in the EU; and it will sooner or later also prevail in Washington.     

The global faces of China’s incomplete reforms: a perspective from China’s new intellectual property regime

ABSTRACT

The paper probes into an antithetical aspect of China’s economic reforms in the global context by focusing on the recent developments of China’s intellectual property regime. By analyzing this cutting-edge legal system, it highlights China’s political divergence against its economic convergence in its decade-long reforms, in particular, its state-oriented innovation system as against the world’s neo-liberal economic order. The last decade witnessed China’s preeminent transformation from a passive follower to a proactive advocator of IP standards. However, certain entrenched limits characterizing China’s state-oriented economy and cultural systems such as information blockade and coercive technology transfer serve as catalysts that are apt to provoke acrimonious confrontation between China and major economies. In this sense, China’s incomplete reforms have taken on a new form: as China’s influence on the global economy grows, conflicts of diverse national priorities become more palpable than simple-minded economic cooperation.     

Is the US quantitative easing more effective than China's? A second thought

We study the balance sheet of the People's Bank of China and the Federal Reserve Bank in a historical context and analyze whether the recent round of global expansionary monetary policy has been effective in achieving its desired economic effects. In particular, we focus on the roles played by excess reserves, monetary aggregates and financing to the real economy and highlight the tension between a liquid financial sector and an illiquid real sector. We show that, while both China and the US have followed reserve-driven growth strategies, the compositions and relative sizes of these quantities are quite different. In relative terms, excess reserves and lackluster corporate lending constitute a big problem for the US, whereas for China the pertinent question is how to further mobilize funds tied up in the real estate and stock market. We provide some thoughts on possible solutions to the current policy dilemma at the end.     

林毅夫:中国经济的发展前景

日前,世界银行首席经济学家兼高级副行长林毅夫发表重要演讲,对我国的改革采取渐进的双轨制的转型方式做了高度肯定,对中国经济发展的未来进行了科学的推论:中国再维持20年平均每年8%的增长的可能性是完全存在的。