Trading Land Development Rights under a Planned Land Use System： The ＂Zhejiang Model＂

China＇ s state planned land use system, including regulations such as setting planned quotas for land use, basic cropland preservation, and pursuing a balance between the conversion of arable land into non-agricultural use and the supplement of new agricultural land, has substantially constrained the economic growth of industrial provinces in China. This article explores the innovative reforms adopted by Zhejiang Province through land development rights （LDR） transfer within a locality and LDR trading across localities. We argue that there is a ＂Zhejiang model of LDR transferring and trading,＂ which, we believe, has significant implications not only for fostering an efficiency-enhancing market for land development rights and agricultural land preservation, but also for optimal use of land and a more balanced regional development. One important policy issue relating to China＇s rural land system is that under China＇ s land requisition system, farmers are usually under compensated for urban land-taking.     

Analysis of China＇s Overheated Economy and Macroeconomic Policy Options

Based on macroeconomic analysis since 2003, this article holds mat a trena towaras overheating has surfaced in China‘s economy. China‘s rapid economic expansion has affected the quality of its growth, with rising material and energy consumption and imbalanced economic structure as the main manifestations. Regarding macroeconomic policy options in 2004, decision-makers should shift the policy focus from control of deflation to prevention of inflation; the pace of economic growth should be properly set; a balance between consumption and investment should be strengthened by controlling excessive expansion of investment, and industrial restructuring should be conducted in a coordinated manner on the basis of properly controlling the overly rapid indastrial growth; policies should be continued to boost exports and sustainable growth of foreign investment; and more efforts should be made to accelerate the change in the mode of economic growth.     

2003年以来中国的宏观经济形势分析

The Chinese economy has emerged from deflation and entered a new stage of economic growth in late 2002 and early 2003. The sudden pick up of the economy has led to a worsening of structural imbalance and inflation is rising. The Chinese government has to find a fine trade-off between growth and inflation. While the central bank needs to tighten its monetary policy, the government may need to use a more expansionary fiscal policy to offset the contracting effect created by the tightened monetary policy. The structural imbalance and partial overheating remind us that China‘s economic reform still has a long way to go. The Chinese government must speed up its reform process. While the long-term prospect for China‘s economic rise is promising, it may be necessary for the Chinese people to prepare themselves for a harder time ahead.     

China＇s ApprOach to Rebalancing： A Conceptual and Policy Framework

This article seeks to develop a conceptual and policy framework for understanding China’s role in the global economic imbalances.China’s contribution to these imbalances via recurrent trade and financial surpluses corresponds with a phase of deepening structural risks to China s economic growth and development.These structural challenges include:the composition of growth resulting from China’s dynamic internal transformation,China’s trade orientation,the trajectory of resource use and Commissions,welfare problems relating to distribution and international constraints.This article develops a conceptual framework for examining the relationship between the processes of long-run structural transformation in China,its economic imbalances,and the role of institutional reform in dealing with these structural challenges.As such,economic policy should extend beyond short-term macro management to pursue an institutional reform agenda to facilitate broader structural change to mitigate constraints to future growth and to improve economic welfare.     

Is the Export-led Growth Hypothesis Enough to Account for China＇s Growth？

One of the missing pieces preventing us from understanding recent Chinese economic development is the role played by openness and capital accumulation in this process. The question is whether the sharp economic＇ growth that the Chinese economy has experienced is another case of export-led growth due to the open-door policy or whether, on the contrary, this growth has been caused by high domestic savings and investment rates （and the consequent capital accumulation）. To answer this question, we employed an empirical framework of the cointegrated vector autoregressive model. The empirical results show that both investment （in physieal capital and R＆D） and exports, as well as the exchange rate policy, are relevant factors in explaining China＇s long-run economic growth over the past 4 decades.     

Financial Development, Economic Growth and Adaptive Efficiency： A Comparison between China and Pakistan

The strong economic growth in China is difficult to reconcile with its inefficient financial system. The puzzle of China＇s financial development and growth can be explained through a dynamic criterion of adaptive efficiency, rather than through allocative efficiency. Using the framework of an autoregressive distributed lag model, the present paper tests the hypothesis that the GDP growth rate is dependent on financial development along with other variables in China and Pakistan. The hypothesis cannot be rejected in both cases. However, the results show that economic growth has a negative relationship with credit to the private sector in China. We conclude that financial development is a source of China＇s high growth rate and that the banking system is still under an evolutionary process, involving the pursuit of social objectives instead of the sole objective of profit maximization. Our results provide some implications for other developing countries like Pakistan.     

Financial Market Turmoil： Implications for Monetary Policy Transmission in China

The recent financial market turmoil has initiated another search for insightful understanding of the interactions between the financial market and monetary policy. This paper explores these interactions in terms of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in China. We argue that evolving financial development, enhanced by the expansion of the financial market, has altered the conventional channel for monetary transmission in China. Analyzing marked changes in the financial landscape and taking into account policy regime shifts in China, the paper provides clear evidence showing that the financial market has become a new and important channel for transmission of monetary policy in China.     

Is China up to the Test？ A Review of Theories and Priorities for Education Investment for a Modern China

This paper reviews the key theories relating to the role of education in economic development and social change and how education, as a critical component of total factor productivity, contributes to sustained economic growth. It examines how China ＂s education policy reflects the country＇s unique dual economy. Focusing on the post-reform period, the paper contends that while progress has been made, there are risks to China＇s future growth prospects from failing to reap the benefits of sound education policy. It argues that if the Chinese education system is to continue to be a driver of rather than a drain on economic growth, and if China is to successfully manage its transition towards more inclusive, sustainable and equitable growth, reforms will be needed to improve the quality of education at all levels and to create an environment in which China＇s extensive human capital is duly recognized and respected. Crucially, the education system should be transformed to ensure it promotes a comprehensive range of human capabilities, including those that go beyond the part humans play in augmenting production possibilities.     

Local ＂Land Finance＂ in China＇s Urban Expansion： Challenges and Solutions

This paper considers the issue of local ＂land finance＇＂ in the context of China ＂s fast urban expansion. In an analysis of China ＂s land requisition and public leasing system we argue that low-cost land acquisition is the fundamental cause of land-related distortions that have occurred during China ＂s urbanization. Granting farmers the power to negotiate directly with land users during urban expansion, combined with coordinated land tax reforms to consolidate local tax bases is the key to China achieving both equity and land use efficiency in urban expansion.     

Effect of Money Supply on Real Output and Price in China

Over the past 30 years, China has achieved remarkable long-term economic growth. Using quarterly data, we study the effects of money supply on real output and inflation in China between 1993 and 2008. To this end, we use money supply shocks afler filtering out the expected component of the money supply. Our findings provide evidence supporting the asymmetric effect of positive and negative money supply shocks on real output and inflation in China. That is, real GDP growth in China responds to negative money supply shocks but not positive money supply shocks. In addition, inflation responds to positive money supply shocks but not negative money supply shocks. We conclude that the People＇s Bank of China＇ s policy of steady monetary growth appears to be appropriate. Our study offers important policy implications for China.     

Is There a ＂Middle-income Trap＂？ Theories, Experiences and Relevance to China

Through review of relevant studies and analysis,this article indicates that the "middle-income trap " is in line with the framework of the mainstream economic growth theories, and,therefore,it is a useful concept through which we can analyze economic growth phenomena in specific economic growth phases.The empirical experiences of many countries also indicate that at specific middle-income stages,economies with high rates of growth tend to encounter economic slowdown or even stagnation.The article shows that China is facing the challenge of determining how to move smoothly beyond the middle-income stage of economic development,while taking into account the shifting population structure,changing resource endowment and growth patterns.The article,drawing on international experiences, puts forward several policy suggestions relating to improvement in total factor productivity, expansion of human capital accumulation and deepening of system and government function reforms.     

is China＇s Economic Growth Extraordinary or Mediocre？ The Role of the Exchange Rate

Results derived from evaluations using different measures for China＇s economic growth are divergent, especially when the RMB exchange rate has experienced large depreciation. Focusing on the changes in the RMB exchange rate matching the demands of economic development, we offer some plausible explanations for the variations in the evaluation results. The significant gaps between different economic performance evaluation results before the mid-1990s, and evidence from international comparisons of factor productivity indicate that the quality of economic growth in China is different from that of other economies. Evaluation of economic development should take into account both quantitative expansion and qualitative improvement. From this perspective, evaluation results indicate qualitative improvement in the Chinese economy after the mid-1990s.     

Budget Structure and Pollution Control： A Cross-country Analysis and Implications for China

In the published literature, the differences in environmental performance across countries are typically explained using the Environmental Kuznets Curve. The Environmental Kuznets Curve states that pollution initially increases with economic growth. Once GDP per capita reaches a certain level, the relationship reverses. In the present paper, we provide an alternative hypothesis, where budget structure plays an important role in explaining the variations in pollution across the world.＂ the lower the business-related taxes as a share of total tax revenue, the higher the property tax in total tax revenue and the higher the ratio of public health expenditure in total expenditure, then the stronger the incentive of pollution control and the lower the pollution level. Our empirical findings reveal that the budget structure does have an important impact on pollution control. The policy implication of this research is that effective control of environmental pollution requires changes in tax structure and expenditure assignment. This research has important policy implications for China ＂s tax system reform and pollution control efforts.     

Development in China＇s Foreign Trade： 2003-2012

China＇s foreign trade has entered a new stage, marked by some profound changes since 2003. After 5 years ＇consecutive high growth, China＇s foreign trade experienced a significant slowdown in growth following the onset of the global financial crisis in 2008. The purpose of this article is to present a review of the development in China＇s foreign trade over the past l O years, and to explore important changes that have taken place during this period of time. A majorfinding of the presentpaper is that the traditional forces driving the high export growth in China, that is, low-cost labor, low-cost resources and low-cost money, have been disappearing. The policy implication is that over the next l O-15 years, the most important conditions for sustaining high export growth will be promoting the development and export of private enterprises in traditional heaw industries and high-technology industries, and relying on technological progress and high produc6vity to propel export expansion.     

Climate Change and Green Growth： A Perspective of the Division of Labor

This paper presents a new research agenda on climate change and green growth from the perspective of the division of labor in classical economics. The paper covers three major dimensions of green growth （i.e. carbon emissions, environmental proteetion and material resources use） and some related important topics, as well as the fresh policy implications of the new research agenda, Typical marginal analysis in a given structure of the division of labor suggests that ＂green＂ action is a burden to economic development. Therefore, climate negotiation has become a burden-sharing game and has reached a stalemate. New thinking is badly needed to rescue these negotiations and to drive a shift to a new ＂green growth＂ paradigm. The proposed new research agenda represents an effort to create a new narrative on climate change and green growth. Because the new research agenda can theoretically predict the possibility that a more competitive structure of the division of labor could be triggered by ＂＇green ＂＇ policy, it has promising policy implications for various important challenges facing us in the 21st century.     

Business Cycle in China since the Lehman Crisis： Interaction among Macroeconomic Policy,Economic Growth and Inflation

The major objectives of China＇s macroeconomic policy are to stabilize economic growth and inflation, which, in turn, are important factors determining key prices, such as the policy interest rate, the renminbi exchange rate and stockprices. In a framework that distinguishes different phases of the business cycle based on whether the current period＇s economic growth rate and inflation rate are above or below their ＂＇normal＂ values, this paper analyzes the interaction among macroeconomic policy, economic growth and inflation in China since the Lehman crisis, and the implications for these key prices. The path of China＇s economy indicates that stimulus measures taken by the government during the recession phase and tightening measures implemented during the overheating phase have helped minimize the fluctuation over the business cycle. Our analysis shows that Chinese authorities tend to rely more on adjusting the exchange rate than the interest rate to stabilize the economy. Comparing with conditions at the time of the post-Lehman recession, the current slowpace of economie growth in China may reflect not only weakening demand, but also a lowerpotential growth rate associated with the arrival of the Lewis turning point.     

Smaller Real Regional Income Gap than Nominal Income Gap： A Price-adjusted Study

I. IntroductionSince China’s reform and opening-up, its economy has witnessed rapid growth togetherReal Regional Income Gap39 ?2006 The Authors Journal compilation ?2006 Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences with a substantial increase in household income. Sustained rapid economic growth has led to an increasingly larger “pie” for distribution. According to the National Bureau of Statistics of China preliminary estimation indicated that GDP …     

Retesting the Separability of China＇s Rural Households

This article retests the separability of China’s rural households in light of growing doubt about the sustainability of high economic growth in China.If a household’s production decisions are "separable "from the household’s consumption decisions,generally this suggests there is no surplus labor.Many scholars aver that China’s surplus rural labor has spurred rapid economic growth,but concerns have arisen as to whether China still has surplus labor available.We investigate this issue using rural household panel data from 1993 to 2009.The regression results confirm that households in rural China have progressed from being non-separable to separable.The estimation results for both the entire country and regions reject the separability hypothesis before 2004 but fail to reject the hypothesis after 2004(with the exception of the central region).These results suggest that China ’s surplus labor supply is dwindling,especially in the eastern and the western regions.The sustainability of China’s high economic growth is questionable in the absence of a large reservoir of surplus rural labor.     

Developmental Constraints Adversely Affecting New Entrants Into the Construction Industry of the Limpopo Province of South Africa

Although political transformation has occurred in South Africa in April 1994, the pace at which economic transformation has occurred has been slow. A review of the literature has shown that economic transformation has been slowed by an acute shortage of technical skills among Black South Africans working in business, government, and industry. A case in point is the construction industry of Limpopo Province of South Africa in which emerging contractors have failed to compete adequately with well-established contractors in the construction industry due to shortage of technical skills, capital, and lack of access to markets. The study is based on a random sample of 104 emerging contractors operating in the Province of Limpopo. A combination of quantitative and qualitative methods of data collection and analyses was used in the study in order to identify and quantify key obstacles to growth and development in emerging contractors. Eigen values estimated from factor analysis showed that the viability of emerging contractors in the construction industry of Limpopo Province was significantly influenced by three factors （lack of entrepreneurial skills, lack of capital, and lack of transparency in the award of construction tenders）. Based on results obtained from multilevel analysis, differences among the five districts of Limpopo Province accounted for 13.18% of the total variation in viability. Differences in entrepreneurial skills between viable and non-viable businesses accounted for 33.49% of total variation. Findings of the study show that entrepreneurial skills are no less important than financial capital for ensuring viability in emerging contractors currently operating in Limpopo Province. The study has also found that the fundamental principles of good governance such as transparency and accountability are not adhered to in the administration and award of government tenders, and that this predicament was working to the detriment of emerging contractors in the province.     

External Demand Decline-caused Industry Collapse in China

Industry collapse has become an importantphenomenon in China＇s recent economic growth fluctuation. This paper develops a simple model to analyze this phenomenon. Our analysis focuses on an external demand decline-caused industry collapse. The model reveals that the combination of large-scale decline in external demand with a horizontal domestic supply curve causes the domestic export industry to undergo a sharp decrease in output in a short period of time, which further leads to a sharp decline in employment. The conventional stabilization policy is less effective in coping with this sudden industry collapse. The Chinese Government needs to formulate an appropriate structural industry stabilization policy to cope with the sudden industry collapse, and, in particular, to implement a direct employment aid program to deal with unemployment resulting from the industry collapse.