Estimating Open Economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve for Korea

We estimate the open economy new Keynesian Philips curve (NKPC) to characterize the inflation dynamics of Korea. While recent studies show that the NKPC holds for the pre‐currency crisis period, the empirical evidence is inconclusive for the post‐crisis period. Has globalization increased the role of global factors relative to domestic factors? Can labor income share still serve as a good measure of real marginal cost following the structural break? To address these issues for the post‐crisis period, we use two types of open NKPC: the relative prices model and the incomplete pass‐through model. The estimation of both models indicates that the forward‐looking behavior is important, and its role is reinforced in an open economy specification. Both NKPC models also show that the external factors are more relevant inflation drivers than the domestic factors.     

Learning and Estimation of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve Models

The extant literature is split on the best measure of marginal cost in the New Keynesian Philips Curve, with the output gap and the labor share being the most commonly advocated proxy measures. Which one is the best measure? In this article, I assume that agents update their understanding and expectation period by period, a learning process. In terms of econometrics, I use a recursive Vector Autoregression approach and conduct a forecasting exercise that considers updating of information sets used for formation of expectation. I find that the traditional output gap measure is a more significant variable explaining the dynamics of the U.S. inflation rate, as compared with a measure of the labor income share. Furthermore, the role of the output gap cannot be replaced using lagged values of inflation. Instead, both the output gap and lags of the actual inflation rate are important determinants of inflation.     

Hours and Wages in the Depression: British Engineering, 1926–1938

On their intensive margins, firms in the British engineering industry adjusted to the severe falls in demand during the 1930s Depression by cutting hours of work. This provided an important means of reducing labor input and marginal labor costs through movements from overtime to short-time schedules. Nominal basic wage rates dropped relatively modestly while their real wage equivalents continued to rise throughout the trough years of the recession. This paper provides detailed labor market and empirical analysis of the hours and wage adjustment processes. Quantitative work is based on cell data from a panel of 28 local labor markets for the period 1926–38.     

Do Multinational Enterprises Relocate Employment to Low-Wage Regions? Evidence from European Multinationals

This paper analyzes the employment behavior of home multinational enterprises (MNEs) in Europe. To this end we use a unique firm-level panel data set of more than 1,000 European multinational parent enterprises and their European affiliates. We find for parent firms operating in the manufacturing sector that the labor cost elasticity of parent employment with respect to North EU affiliates’ labor costs is positive and statistically significant. This implies employment substitution between parents and their North EU based affiliates takes place in response to wage cost differentials between the parent and its North EU based affiliates. In contrast, we find no evidence for such substitution effects between parent employment and its affiliates that are located in low-wage regions in the EU and in Central and Eastern Europe. JEL no. F23, J23     

Nominal Wage Contracts, Adjustment Costs and Real Persistence of Monetary Shocks

This paper describes a model in which monetary shocks have persistent real effects. Starting from the limited participation model of Christiano (1991) with capital adjustment costs as suggested by Dow (1995) it is confirmed that costs of equipment installation and restrictions on consumer portfolio choices alone cannot account for the observed effects of monetary policy. However, after introducing nominal wage contracts as a third friction, the model generates real effects of monetary shocks. It is shown that these real effects are highly persistent for a realistic size of adjustment costs and strongly autocorrelated money growth shocks which are typical for Europe.     

Sectoral and aggregate estimates of the cyclical behavior of markups: Evidence from Germany

Sectoral and Aggregate Estimates of the Cyclical Behavior of Mark-ups: Evidence from Germany. — The paper presents evidence of the cyclical behavior of the price to marginal cost ratio for Germany. Average markups are estimated both for two-digit manufacturing industries and for the aggregate economy, the results being quite similar once the difference between gross output and and value-added markups is accounted for. Over the business cycle, markups appear to be countercyclical for most parameter constellations. This is interpreted as empirical support for business cycle theories that rely on aggregate demand shocks to affect markups inversely, thus producing procyclical real wages and productivity without having to assume technology shocks.     

Relating Product Prices to Long‐Run Marginal Cost: Evidence from Solar Photovoltaic Modules

A basic tenet of microeconomics is that for a competitive industry in equilibrium the market price of a product will be equal to its marginal cost. This paper develops a model framework and a corresponding empirical inference procedure for estimating long‐run marginal cost in industries where production costs decline over time. In the context of the solar photovoltaic (PV) module industry, we rely primarily on firm‐level financial accounting data to estimate the long‐run marginal cost of PV modules for the years 2008–2013. During those years, the industry experienced both unprecedented price declines and significant expansions of manufacturing capacity. We compare the trajectory of average sales prices with the estimated long‐run marginal costs in order to quantify the extent to which actual price declines were attributable to reductions in production costs. The trajectory of estimated product costs is then extrapolated to forecast an equilibrium trend line for future PV module prices.     

Promise,trust, and betrayal: Costs of breaching an implicit contract

We study the cost of breaching an implicit contract in a goods market. Young and Levy (2014) document an implicit contract between the Coca‐Cola Company and its consumers. This implicit contract included a promise of constant quality. We offer two types of evidence of the costs of breach. First, we document a case in 1930 when the Coca‐Cola Company chose to avoid quality adjustment by incurring a permanently higher marginal cost of production, instead of a one‐time increase in the fixed cost. Second, we explore the consequences of the company's 1985 introduction of “New Coke” to replace the original beverage. Using the Hirschman's (1970) model of Exit, Voice, and Loyalty, we argue that the public outcry that followed New Coke's introduction was a response to the implicit contract breach.     

Declining Labor Share： Is China＇s Case Different？

This paper explores why labor share in China has declined since the middle of the 1990s. Existing literature usually ascribes the labor share decline in developed countries to biased technological progress. However, our investigation shows that China ＂s case is different. Using a simultaneous equation model estimated with three-stage least squares, we find that FD1, levels of economic development and privatization have negative effects on the labor share. The negative influence of FDl on labor share results from regional competition for FD1, which weakens labor forces＂ bargaining power. A U-shaped relationship exists between labor share and the level of economic development, and China is now on the declining part of the curve. The negative effects of privatization on the labor share stem from the elimination of the so-called ＂wage costs eroding profit ＂ situation and the positive supply shock on the labor market.     

The value-added tax reform and labor market outcomes: Firm-level evidence from China

The tax incentives designed to stimulate firm investment may have a large and unexpected impact on labor market outcomes. Using a comprehensive data set on Chinese manufacturing firms during the period 1998–2007 with a difference-in-differences approach, we examine the impact of the value-added tax reform in 2004 on the firm-level labor market outcomes. We find that firms in eligible industries and pilot regions (treated firms) enjoying lower costs of purchasing fixed assets under the reform tended to increase capital investment and reduce employment simultaneously relative to firms that did not have tax incentives (the control firms). Compared with the control firms, the treated firms became more capital intensive but had declines in labor share in value added and average wage. We also find that the employment adjustment is associated with increase in the share of skilled workers in terms of engineers and technicians, but not workers with a college degree or higher.     

Impact of trade cost on China-EU agri-food trade

In this research, we investigate trade costs in relation to China-EU trade in agri-food products during 2001–2015. Major components of trade cost include transportation costs, border-related policy barriers such as tariffs, and local distribution costs. Our results indicate that trade costs between China and EU involving agri-food products, although falling, remain abnormally high. Consequently, we find that trade cost reductions contribute to over half of the overall China-EU trade growth. Our decomposition technique demonstrates that economic growth and trade cost reductions are the key drivers of China-EU trade expansion. Implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) would reduce high trade costs to increase EU-China bilateral agricultural trade significantly. This is not fully captured in the gravity models where a static distance is usually used as a proxy to trade cost. The BRI will not reduce the distance, but it will cut transportation and other components of trade cost for China-EU trade.     

Monopoly aspects of political parties

Conclusions The standard economic model of a natural monopoly offers a useful conceptual means to examine some of the characteristics of political parties. The declining cost curves for producing political products are attributable to the indivisible nature of the majority asset. In the absence of subsidies, political parties can be expected to produce at the point where their marginal evaluation equals average cost. Thus, they have an incentive to seek subsidies in order to expand production to the point where marginal evaluation equals marginal cost. While this is optimizing behavior on the part of the individual party, it may not be optimal in competing for the majority asset, because this process decreases the value of resources that the other party has expended towards acquiring the asset. Parties will determine their optimal output calculating only the private costs and benefits to be secured through party competition, but will ignore the social costs caused by the externality they generate in competing for a fixed percentage of votes. As a result, optimizing behavior by the individual parties may lead to an excess of resources devoted to producing political decisions.     

Separating shocks from cyclicality in Indian aggregate supply

Simultaneity issues as well as incorrect measurement of shocks and of the cyclical variable bias estimated slopes of the Indian aggregate supply curve (AS). Our initial Generalised Method of Moments estimation, based on a filtered output gap variable and including supply shocks, also gives an unrealistic downward sloping AS. But we find measures of asymmetries in price changes outperform traditional measures of supply shocks. Estimation using marginal costs as a proxy for the output gap gives a positive coefficient that reduces in size on including our comprehensive supply shock variable, implying the correct AS has a small positive slope, but is subject to multiple shifts. The semi-structural specification, closer to firms’ actual decisions, gives estimates of structural parameters such as degree of price stickiness and extent of forward-looking price adjustment. The results more correctly separate shocks from cyclicality, help to interpret India's growth and inflation experience, and have implications for policy.     

Exports and labor costs: evidence from a French policy

We investigate the role that labor costs hold in exporters’ performance. To do so, we exploit a large-scale French reform that granted most firms a tax credit proportional to the wagebill of their employees paid below a given threshold. This policy effectively translated into a cut in labor cost whose magnitude varies depending on firm-specific wage structures. We use the predicted treatment intensity based on pre-reform composition of the labor force as an instrument for the actual policy-induced firm-level change in labor costs. Although our point estimates are consistent with commonly estimated firm-level trade elasticities combined with reasonable labor shares in total costs, coefficients are found to be very noisy, suggesting lack of robust evidence of a causal effect of the policy. We discuss several potential explanations for our results as well as their implications.     

The theory of optimum currency areas,trade adjustment,and trade

This article seeks to provide a closer integration of the theory of optimum currency areas with the theory of international trade. A currency area is treated as a continuous variable ranging from zero to one: zero if there is no enlargement, and some positive value otherwise, corresponding exactly to the percentge of trade in the enlarged area. The benefits of widening a currency area are then regarded, in terms of conventional trade theory, as equivalent to a reduction in transportation cost. The costs of widening a currency area are seen, instead, with reference to open economy macroeconomics, as a drop in the speed of adjustment of the terms of trade to their long-run equilibrium level. On this basis, it is shown that the marginal benefits of enlarging a currency area fall, the marginal costs rise, and an optimum size arises. But this size depends heavily on the optimal composition of the members.CEPR     

Inventories and real rigidities in New Keynesian business cycle models

Kryvtsov and Midrigan (2008) study the behavior of inventories in an economy with menu costs, fixed ordering costs and the possibility of stockouts. This paper extends their analysis to a richer setting that is capable of more closely accounting for the dynamics of the US business cycle. We find that the original conclusion survives in this setting: namely, the model requires an elasticity of real marginal cost to output approximately equal to the inverse intertemporal elasticity of substitution in consumption in order to account for the countercyclicality of the aggregate inventory-to-sales ratio in the data.     

Devaluation, Capital Formation, and the Current Account

This paper re-examines the effects of devaluation and a rise in the rate of devaluation on capital formation and the current account in an optimizing monetary model of a small open economy with endogenous labor, investment with adjustment costs, and perfect capital mobility. It is shown that devaluation leads to capital accumulation and a current-account deficit in the long run and during the adjustment process, whereas a rise in the rate of devaluation has an ambiguous impact on capital formation and the current account depending on the relationship between consumption and real balances in the utility function. If consumption and real balances are separable or complements, then a rise in the rate of devaluation produces capital decumulation and a current-account surplus in the long run as well as on the transition path. These results stand in sharp contrast with Calvo (1981). JEL Classification Numbers: F41     

Incentives for cost misrepresentation in supply chains

This paper investigates sequential manufacturer–retailer price determination and channel performance under possible misrepresentation by one member of its privately known cost. To the standard double marginalization game, we add a preliminary stage where the manufacturer (alternately the retailer) announces its privately known constant marginal cost. We prove that the manufacturer has no incentive to misrepresent its cost, and we give respective sufficient conditions on the demand function for the retailer to overreport and to underreport costs. Depending on the shape of the demand function, opportunistic behavior by the retailer may lower or raise the manufacturer’s profit and channel performance.     

The multi-market firm, transportation costs, and the separation of the output and allocation decisions

Despite the documented importance of transport costs for firmswith sales in geographically separated markets, theoreticalanalyses typically ignore such costs. This paper analyzes theeffects of transport costs for a risk averse, competitive firmselling a single good in a domestic (certain) and a foreign(uncertain) market, and shows that these effects are asymmetric.The effects on total output and the inter-market allocationof output depend on the behavior of marginal domestic transportcosts, but are largely independent of the form of the foreigntransport cost function. Moreover, regardless of the latter,if marginal transport costs in the domestic market are constant,the firm's total output is independent of its attitude towardsrisk and the parameters of the risky market. This suggests thatthe firm's activity can be insulated from foreign uncertaintiesby government policies that focus on the shape of the domestictransportation cost function.     

Intertemporal production and asset pricing: a duality approach

This paper analyzes a firm's intertemporal optimization problemunder uncertainty and presents a new asset pricing model fromthe vantage point of the production side of the economy usingthe duality principle. The intertemporal profit-maximizationproblem is formulated using the familiar cost function, andthe production Euler equation that encapsulates the joint behaviorof production and asset returns is derived. An asset's riskis measured by its covariance with the stochastic discount factorrepresented by the ratio of discounted marginal costs. The riskpremium is determined by the conditional covariances of assetreturns with output growth scaled by the degree of scale economiesand with input price changes weighted by the cost share of aninput. The proposed model has the standard structure of a multibetapricing model and suggests four economic risk factors–outputgrowth, the return on human capital, the return on physicalcapital, and technology shocks–for use in empirical analysis.