Measuring the national wealth in seventeenth-century England

This article discusses William Petty's 1665 estimate of the wealth of England and Wales—the first set of national accounts—and compares it with Gregory King's (1696), which is shown to be heavily influenced by it. There are conclusions about the methodology of the first political arithmeticians, the kinds of national resources which could be measured for the first time in the seventeenth century, and the lacunae which made it likely that Petty and King underestimated per caput and aggregate incomes. An appendix prints a contemporary analysis of hearth tax returns for every county.     

Dynamic Scoring in a Romer‐Style Economy

This article analyzes how changes in tax rates affect government revenue in a Romer‐style endogenous growth model. Lower tax rates on financial income (returns to physical capital and intellectual property) are partially self‐financing primarily because lower financial income taxes stimulate innovation and enhance labor productivity in the long run. In the baseline calibration, about half of a tax cut is self‐financing in the long run, substantially more than in the Ramsey model. The dynamics of the economy's response to a tax cut are very sluggish and, for some variables, nonmonotonic.     

Regional effects of federal tax shocks

This article studies the effects of federal tax changes on U.S.‐state‐level income. Utilizing an exogenous tax shock series recently proposed in the literature, we find considerable variation in how federal tax changes affect regional income: estimated state income multipliers range between –0.2 in Utah and –3.7 in Hawaii. Analyzing the determinants of differences in regional tax multipliers suggests that size and composition of the state tax base help explain the observed heterogeneity in the transmission of federal tax policy.     

Corporate In‐house Tax Departments*

In‐house human capital tax investment is a significant input to a firm's tax decisions. Yet, due to the lack of data on corporate in‐house tax departments, there is little empirical evidence on how tax departments are associated with tax planning and compliance outcomes. We expect the size of tax departments to be positively associated with the effectiveness of tax planning and compliance. Using hand‐collected data on the number of corporate tax employees in S&P 1500 firms over the 2009–2014 period, we find that firms with larger tax departments are associated with lower and less volatile cash effective tax rates. Furthermore, using tax employees' specialization, we identify tax departments' relative focus on planning or compliance and document a trade‐off between tax avoidance and tax risk. Specifically, tax departments with more of a tax planning focus have incrementally greater tax avoidance but higher tax risk, whereas tax departments with more of a tax compliance focus have incrementally lower tax risk but higher tax rates. Overall, this paper contributes to the literature by looking inside the “black box” of corporate tax departments and shedding light on the importance of human capital tax investment for tax outcomes.     

Illuminations and distortions: Gregory King's Scheme calculated for the year 1688 and the social structure of later Stuart England1

This critique of King's well‐known Scheme of the social order in 1688 examines his purposes, the Scheme's evolutionary process, and the taxation data (hearth, poll, window, and marriage duty) that King used to construct it, before contrasting his conclusions with recent research. His social hierarchy emerges as a rather crude and backward‐looking stereotype based on too many intelligent guesses, with his treatment of the poorer families being least satisfactory. Overall, King's population totals appear sound, his national income estimate low, and various mean household sizes and family and children's totals unreliable.     

个人住房房产税改革研究——基于社会福利保障水平增进的视角

我国要推出的房产税改革,实际上是要对个人住房征收房产持有税,并要对其如何征、征多少的问题进行改革。文章在分析理论界的基本观点与试点方案的基础上总结出我国个人住房房产税改革的基本思路与目标,论证了我国逐步推进并全面开征住宅房产税符合新福利经济学的希克斯效率改进,能增进社会总体福利水平;并从调节收入分配与提升福利保障水平的角度对我国住宅房产税的税收制度进行了设计。     

The politics of social protection expenditure and financing in southern Africa

Social protection is expanding in southern Africa, but consideration of its fiscal base is usually limited to affordability concerns. Little attention is paid to the different sources of revenue or how the interests of contributors to social protection may affect spending priorities. This article suggests there is a link between revenue source and social protection spending. Aid dependent countries' social protection policy is mostly determined by donors. The governments of countries that rely on natural resources or Southern African Customs Union revenue are relatively free to shape social protection policy. Only in countries that rely on domestic tax-based revenue, where the government must consider the interests of the taxpayer, is there something resembling a social contract for social protection, in which the citizens engage with their government through an exchange-based logic. This article concludes that a broad and diversified tax base is an important mechanism for creating a reciprocal relationship of this kind and thus increasing social spending.     

‘The city has been wronged and abused!’: institutional corruption in the eighteenth century

Corruption by office holders in eighteenth‐century British institutions, from state to local level, played an instrumental role in the emergence of modern bureaucracy, and the development of accountable, professionalized systems of administration. Due to the similarities between the institutional culture of eighteenth‐century Britain and those within many contemporary developing societies, social scientists have also sought to draw lessons from Britain's historical experience of corruption. Yet little is known about the extent, impact, and causes of corruption by eighteenth‐century office holders. This article presents the first detailed research into the topic. It utilises the rich administrative and financial records associated with the institution charged with funding and undertaking the maintenance of London Bridge—the Bridge House—to conduct a systematic qualitative and quantitative study of corruption by office holders. The article identifies an ingrained culture of corruption amongst Bridge House officers, and provides quantitative evidence of the substantial impact corruption had on the organization's finances. However, contrary to existing studies on corruption, this article concludes that, although extensive and significant, corruption did not perform a functional role in the context of this institution. The article also provides a methodology and comparator for future studies into this topic.     

London in the Poets' Eyes

Although both of them belong to the same school,they do show us different pictures of London.The following discussions focus on how different the London is in the eyes of poets William Blake and William Wordsworth based on their poems London and Composed upon Westminster Bridge.     

Financial Accounting Effects of Tax Aggressiveness: Contracting and Measurement

This study examines a setting in which a tax‐reporting decision is delegated to a firm's tax manager. Using financial accounting measures of tax expense to evaluate the tax manager allows the firm to efficiently attain the level of tax avoidance it prefers, despite the fact that the consequences of the tax‐reporting decision will occur in the future. The study also examines how well two accounting measures of tax aggressiveness — cash taxes paid and the unrecognized tax benefit — distinguish between conservative and aggressive firms.     

Last‐Chance Earnings Management: Using the Tax Expense to Meet Analysts' Forecasts*

We assert that the tax expense is a powerful context in which to study earnings management, because it is one of the last accounts closed prior to earnings announcements. Although many pre‐tax accruals must be posted in the year‐end general ledger, managers estimate and negotiate tax expense with their auditors immediately prior to earnings announcements. We hypothesize that changes from third‐ to fourth‐quarter effective tax rates (ETRs) are negatively related to whether and how much a firm's earnings absent tax expense management miss analysts' consensus forecast, a proxy for target earnings. We measure earnings absent tax expense management as actual pre‐tax earnings adjusted for the annual ETR reported at the third quarter. We provide robust evidence that firms lower their projected ETRs when they miss the consensus forecast, which is consistent with firms decreasing their tax expense if non‐tax sources of earnings management are insufficient to achieve targets. We also find that firms that exceed earnings targets increase their ETR, but this effect is less significant. By studying the tax expense in total, rather than narrow components of deferred tax expense, our results provide general evidence that reported taxes are used to manage earnings.     

Effects of Patent Protection on Optimal Corporate Income and Consumption Taxes in an R&D‐Based Growth Model

Does reducing the corporate income tax accompanied by an increase in the consumption tax to meet the government's budget constraint improve welfare? To respond, we examine the welfare‐maximizing corporate income tax and consumption tax rates in an R&D‐based growth model under the constraint that the government's budget is balanced at each point of time. Further, we consider how welfare‐maximizing tax rates change as patent protection becomes stronger, as seen in many countries. The results show that as patent protection becomes stronger, the corporate income tax rate should be higher and the consumption tax rate should be lower. This implies that under stronger patent protection, recovering production at the expense of innovation by raising corporate income tax and reducing consumption tax improves welfare.     

Consumption externalities,market imperfections and optimal taxation

In a dynamic model with a keeping‐up‐with‐the Joneses preference and market imperfections, we attempt to investigate under what circumstances and for what reason the optimal tax should be state‐varying. We extend the Ljungqvist and Uhlig (2000) proposition to include preferences that exhibit non‐homotheticity. We show that a keeping‐up‐with‐the‐Joneses preference (a non‐intertemporally‐dependent preference) can lead the social planner to commit to a state‐contingent tax on labor income. Moreover, the optimal labor income tax can be either procyclical or countercyclical with respect to economic fluctuations, this crucially depending on whether the level of contemporaneous consumption increases or decreases the wedge between the intertemporal substitution elasticity of households and of the social planner.     

关于提升上海国际航运中心软实力研究

经过十几年的发展,上海国际航运中心硬环境建设在上海已经日渐成熟,但其软件的开发和配套仍然匮乏。本文首先从税收制度、法律环境和金融保险三个方面对伦敦国际航运中心进行了分析,在此基础上,对上海国际航运中心建设的现状、存在的问题进行探讨,并提出了提升上海国际航运中心软实力的对策。     

Information asymmetry and the speed of adjustment: debasements in the mid‐sixteenth century

This article examines the impact of information asymmetry on the movement of London–Antwerp exchange rates against the backdrop of the Great Debasement of 1544–51. The case of the revaluation of gold coins in the Habsburg Netherlands in 1539, about which the sovereign and the public possessed similar information, is used as the benchmark to judge how far the speed of adjustment was affected by information asymmetry. This article is also part of the recent literature that estimates the degree of financial market integration in late medieval and early modern Europe. In the framework of the threshold autoregressive model, the speed of adjustment and the transaction costs associated with arbitrage are estimated, and the results are judged using the speed of communication as a benchmark since the flow of information played a critical role in financial arbitrage. The results reveal that the sixteenth‐century London–Antwerp exchange markets were already as integrated as that during the late nineteenth century, but information asymmetry severely disturbed the effectiveness of exchange arbitrage.     

How does a Change in the Excise Tax on Beer Impact Beer Retail Prices in South Africa?

This article uses price data, collected by Statistics South Africa, to estimate the effect of a change in the excise tax on the retail price of beer. We find strong evidence that the excise tax on beer is overshifted to consumers. The pass‐through coefficient is estimated at 4.83 (95% CI: 4.02; 5.64) for lager, and at 4.77 (95% CI: 4.04; 5.50) for all beer (which includes dark beer). This implies that for every R1/unit increase in the excise tax, the retail price increases by about R4.80/unit. Of the 23 brand‐packaging combinations considered, the pass‐through coefficients vary between 2.39 and 10.05 (median = 5.30). The majority of the price change in response to a tax change occurs immediately, and prices have fully adjusted two months after the excise tax increase becomes effective. Pass‐through differs substantially across packaging types. The pass‐through coefficient on 750 ml bottles is substantially lower than that of 330 ml (or 340 ml) cans and 6 × 330 ml (or 6 × 340 ml) “six‐packs.” The overshifting of the excise tax has positive implications for public health policy, since they increase the effectiveness of alcohol taxes as a tool to reduce the (excessive) consumption of beer.     

Deciphering Tax Avoidance: Evidence from Credit Rating Disagreements

This study investigates the role of tax avoidance in the credit‐rating process and whether differences exist in how rating agencies account for the risk relevance of tax avoidance. Using a sample of initial credit ratings assigned to public debt issuances during 1994–2013, our evidence is consistent with Moody's Investors Service and Standard & Poor's assessing the costs and benefits associated with tax avoidance differently from one another, resulting in more frequent and pronounced rating agency disagreement. Rating agency disagreement over tax avoidance is most evident when it is accompanied by relatively high levels of uncertain tax positions, foreign activities, research and development activities, or tax footnote opacity. We also find evidence that decreases (increases) in tax avoidance or tax footnote disclosure opacity are positively (negatively) associated with the convergence of split ratings. This suggests that firms can exacerbate or mitigate rating agency disagreement subsequent to bond issuance. Our study complements prior research by examining why sophisticated information intermediaries disagree about the risk relevance of tax avoidance. It also sheds light on how firms can influence rating agencies’ understanding of tax avoidance.     

How Has Rural Tax Reform Affected Farmers and Local Governance in China？

Using nationally representative data, the present paper examines the impact of China's ongoing rural tax reform on farmers. The difficulties in further local governance restructuring are also discussed. It is argued that the issues associated with rural taxation and local governance in China result from inherent tension between an increasingly liberalized economic system and a still centralized political system. Although rural tax reform has helped to reduce farmers' tax burdens in the short term, the establishment of an effective local governance regime requires coordinated reforms to downsize local bureaucracy by providing social security for laid-off cadres, to strengthen local accountability by granting higher local formal tax autonomy, and to promote meaningful participation by expanding local democracy.     

从政府责任角度谈社会保障税的开征

本文分别从税费理论和各国的社会保障税或费的制度实践对社会保障税费进行比较分析,认为社会保障税并没有严格优于社会保障费。就筹资手段而言,无论名税还是费,其实质都是相似的。在我国,社会保障费改税更多的是一种手段,旨在提高社会统筹层次,提高社保资金的利用效率,更深层的原因是更加突出了政府在社会保障中的责任。社保税的开征将使得政府的责任显性化,但即使改征社保税也仅限于社会统筹资金部分。     

Enforcement,Socioeconomic Diversity,and Tax Filing Compliance in the United States

In this article, we examine the determinants of tax filing compliance in the United States. We use county‐level data on non‐filing rates for the tax year 2000, obtained directly from the Internal Revenue Service. We include explanatory variables identified in the “rational compliance” framework, including an enforcement index against identified non‐filers, the audit rate of filers, and the average penalty rate for both filers and non‐filers. We also examine the role of socioeconomic diversity on tax compliance, testing whether within‐county heterogeneity in household income, language, race, and religion can help explain variation in non‐filing rates. We find that non‐filing is increasing with heterogeneity by race, although not by income or language, and that non‐filing is decreasing with heterogeneity by religious membership. As for enforcement variables, we find that non‐filing rates tend to fall with the enforcement index. Other variables have somewhat mixed results.