中日为何都购买美国国债

中日两国是世界上外汇储备最多的经济体，同时也是购买美国国债第一和第二多的国家。近年来在美元不断贬值时期中国增持美国国债一直受到广泛关注，众家评论不一。其中争议最大的就是在美联储和美国财政部默契配合下，美元贬值预期已经十分明确，     

2005年影响福建出口市场因素分析

随着全球经济贸易一体化进程的加快，受油价飙升、美元贬值、世界通货膨胀等众多不利因素的影响，世界经济贸易发展面临着巨大的挑战，并呈现出新的特点和趋势：世界主要经济体经济贸易发展不平衡、贸易摩擦加剧、区域贸易增加及新一轮外资转移等。     

美元虽已低估，跌势仍将持续

目前，美元虽已被低估，但很可能会继续贬值。鉴于我们的美国经济分析师下调了美国经济增长的预期值，情况就更是如此。未来两个季度，欧元区、日本和英国的经济增长很可能也会减速，但这不会改变“经济脱钩”的主题。也就是说，世界其他经济体将比过去更好地适应美国经济减速。     

货币战争是与非

2011年国际汇率变动将主要表现为新兴经济体货币升值，美元、欧元与日元不可能出现某种货币的单边大幅升值或贬值的趋势     

全球性通胀亟需共同应对

2007年下半年以来,世界经济增长明显放缓,全球主要经济体都面临着不同程度的通货膨胀压力。目前已经有50个国家正在经历两位数左右的通货膨胀率,涵盖全球42%的人口,总数达30亿人,全球经济高增长低通胀时代行将结束。引发此次全球性通货膨胀的深层次原因在于美元的特殊地位和美元的不断贬值,以及全球能源、粮食和原材料价格的大幅上涨。而在经济全球     

人民币汇率贬值仅是一种测试

人民币贬值的幅度会有多大,这完全取决于中国央行对各国货币汇率关系的评估与取舍,市场根本就不用过度解读。最近“人民币贬值”成了一个热词,这个“贬值”主要是指人民币兑换美元的贬值。就目前人民币与其他国家货币的汇率关系来说,尽管政府希望人民币汇率是由市场供求关系决定的均衡汇率,但是仍然无法摆脱主要是与美元汇率挂钩的路径。没跳出央行掌心这波人民币对美元的贬值是1月22日欧洲央行     

汇率制度与宏观政策

在现代经济条件下，一国政府对经济进行干预的手段主要有财政政策和货币政策。而对一个经济体来说，只有同时达到内部均衡和外部均衡，经济形势才会稳定。其中，产品市场和货币市场是内部均衡两个主要的组成部分，而国际收支平衡代表了外部均衡。     

美元贬值利耶?弊耶?

自2004年下半年以来,美元兑主要货币一直呈现颓势。美元贬值对世界经济的影响短期内因地而异。它对欧元区的经济增长和对日本虚弱的经济复苏极为不利,但对亚洲一些和美元保持联系汇率制度的东盟国家是有利的,因为这些国家的货币会跟随美元一起贬值,从而增加出口的竞争力,同时国际资本也会流向这些国家或地区。据摩根士丹利的一份研究报告显示,如果美元对欧元和日元贬值20％,     

东南亚货币年底可望走坚

东南亚货币年底可望走坚今年上半年东南亚新兴经济体货币兑美元的汇率，大多不是持平就是贬值，不过，有关分析家预测到年底这些国家的货币对美元可望升值。ＭＭＳ新加坡国际公司总经理陈安迪称，今年上半年，马元对美元共升值１．７％，印尼盾对美元贬值１．６５％，秦铢...     

美第二轮量化宽松或致全球经济“二次探底”

新兴经济体将通过加息来抵御本币贬值和输入型通胀,这样就会导致新兴经济体经济增长动能减弱,经济发展减速甚至中断,从而导致全球经济再次陷入危机     

The dollar in the turmoil

We study the impact of the global financial crisis on the equilibrium exchange rate of the US dollar. We first simulate the impact of the crisis on the US net foreign asset position. Then, we calculate the equilibrium value of the dollar according both to a BEER and to a FEER approach. We find the case for a strong, although temporary, depreciation of the dollar even more acute than before the crisis. This suggests that the strength of the dollar in late 2008 and early 2009 may be short-lived.     

Exchange rates,global imbalances,and interdependence in East Asia

The paper analyzes East Asian interdependence in the face of global imbalances. A macro-econometric multinational model is used, describing Korea, Japan, China and the rest of East Asia in their respective relations with the United States as well as with the rest of the world. US imbalances and their expected consequences, notably a depreciation of the dollar and the slowdown of US demand, have rather contrasted effects on East Asian economies, depending on relative magnitudes of the two components. Korea is more affected by the dollar depreciation while China is more exposed to the US slowdown. Japan, less open and less dependent on the US market, is less touched. The correction of East Asian exchange-rate misalignments, which have prevailed since the beginning of the 2000s, would badly affect East Asian economies if undertaken too abruptly. Lastly, the perspective of creating an area of stabilised exchange rates between won, yen and other currencies, organized either as a common currencies basket system or in a regime based on the ACU, is explored preliminarily. Sets of simulations comparing adjustment mechanisms between East Asian countries, with or without the possibility of monetary adjustment, illustrate the cost of precluding exchange-rate adjustments in the case of asymmetric demand shocks.     

Effect of exchange rate return on volatility spill-over across trading regions

This paper examines the effect of realized exchange rate returns on the volatility spill-over between the euro–US dollar and US dollar–yen currency pairs across the five trading regions: Asia, Asia–Europe overlap, Europe, Europe–America overlap and America. Modelling the interaction between returns and volatility in an autoregressive five-equation system, we find evidence that depreciation of the US dollar against the yen has a greater impact on the US dollar–yen volatility spill-over than appreciation in the subprime crisis period. Appreciation and depreciation of the US dollar against the euro does not appear to have an asymmetric effect on the euro–US dollar volatility spill-over. Our results support the notion that the yen may have been preferred to the euro as a ‘safe-haven’ currency relative to the US dollar during the subprime crisis period.     

A Comparative Analysis of Export Price Pass-through in Three Open Asian Economies: Korea,Singapore and Thailand

Abstract

The degree of exchange rate pass-through is of paramount importance to small and open economies as it has a direct impact on domestic inflation as well as the effectiveness of exchange rate as an adjustment tool. High exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) is often cited as a reason for a “fear of floating”. This article analyzes the degree of ERPT into the export prices of three Asian economies—Korea, Thailand and Singapore for the period 1980: Q1–2006: Q4 using both US dollar bilateral rates as well as nominal effective exchange rates. The study also examines whether there are asymmetries in ERPT between exchange rate appreciation and depreciation.     

美元贬值对美国经常账户影响的估值效应分析

本文运用资产组合模型和协整计量方法,论证了美元汇率变化所带来的估值效应对美国经常账户调节的影响。分析结果表明,美元贬值引致的估值效应很小,再加上美元贬值可能使美国短期债务利率上升,这就很容易抵销掉贬值所带来的估值收益。因此,美国巨大的贸易赤字不可能通过美元贬值所带来的估值效应得以纠正。     

我国央行海外资产运作的风险与策略

面对美国爆发的金融危机向全球传递,我国中央银行需要有效地管理好外汇储备资产,调整多元化币种结构,转换增持美国国债的模式,增加进口与海外并购,不仅能提升我国行业竞争力和结构性调整,还能预防因美国经济衰退和美国政府倡导的全球注资带来的通货膨胀,防止日益增加的外汇储备遭遇贬值的风险。当前需要利用美元升值与资本市场价格暴跌产生的并购机遇,进行资本输出,收购价值被严重低估又有潜力的企业,这不仅是对美国未来经济增长的援助,也是增加海外投资收益促使外汇储备增长的新模式。     

The BW 2 regime: an unstable disequilibrium bound to unravel

The paper presents a critical analysis of the Bretton Woods 2 (BW2) hypothesis. According to this view China, other Asian economies and other emerging market economies follow mercantilist policies of maintaining fixed pegs to the US dollar at undervalued levels as a way to pursue export-led growth. The view in the paper is that there is indeed a BW2 regime in some regions of the world. But it is argued that BW2 is different from the first Bretton Woods system: BW2 is structurally unstable and fragile and will unravel over the horizon of the next few years, not a decade or longer. This unraveling could lead to a sharp fall for the US dollar and the US bond market with high real collateral costs with a disorderly rebalancing of the global economy.     

美元霸权论与我国的应对策略

霸权稳定论是20世纪70年代兴起的西方国际政治经济学主流经济理论之一,它认为具有霸权地位大国的存在,是世界经济稳定和充分发展的必要条件。在经济金融领域,霸权稳定论产生了深远影响,美国通过多种形式推行美元霸权,如金融外交、汇率安排、制定国际规则等。美元霸权给美国带来巨大收益的同时却使世界为之“付费”。本文对霸权稳定论与美元霸权进行评述,并总结归纳了中国应对美元霸权的对策。     

The euro and its consequences: What makes a currency strong?

The creation of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and the introduction of the euro was one of the great events in economic history after World War II. The basic attractiveness of the euro is its large and expanding transaction size and the independent central bank which pursues price stability as its primary goal. The basic strength of the dollar is the hysteresis effect based on economies of scale and network externalities. The conclusion in the paper is that at present the hysteresis effect dominates the sheer size effect and the dollar remains the key vehicle currency while the euro has established itself as the second most widely used currency in the world. The euro depreciated against the dollar in the first three years after its introduction. In the paper the euro weakness is explained by the positive growth differential in favor of the U.S. economy caused by the advance in IC-technology and a pick-up in total factor productivity. In the medium run, the outlook for the euro is favorable. The U.S. current account deficit is unsustainable and improvements require a substantial depreciation of the dollar.Distinguished Address presented at the Fifty-Fourth International Atlantic Economic Conference, Washington D.C., October 10–13, 2002.     

Exchange Rate Regime,Financial Market Bubbles and Long‐term Growth in China: Lessons from Japan

Since 2014, capital inflows into China have turned into capital outflows, reversing the gradual appreciation path of the renminbi against the US dollar into an erratic depreciation path. The paper explains the current capital outflows by comparing China and Japan with respect to the impact of exchange rate expectations on speculative capital flows. It is argued that both in China and Japan, given benign liquidity conditions in the USA, policy‐induced appreciation expectations have generated capital inflows that have contributed to overinvestment and financial market bubbles. The current reversal of capital flows is seen as a signal that the bubble in China has burst. To stabilize growth in China and to discourage speculative capital outflows a fixed exchange rate to the dollar is recommended. Given Japan's experience and given that China's foreign assets remain high, the depreciation pressure on the Chinese renminbi can be expected to abate.