The External Debt Situation in Indonesia: Performance and Prospects

In interviews with bankers, government economists and academic observers, most of them attributed the absence of an Indonesian debt crisis during 1982–84 to the fact that a significant portion of external public debt, an average of 37 percent, was long-term concessionary loans from foreign governments and international agencies. Our analysis challenges this conventional explanation. We show that if Indonesia (1) had paid the same effective interest rate as Mexico, (2) had the same maturity structure as Mexican debt, and (3) had the same export-GNP ratio as Mexico, then its average 1980–82 total debt service-export ratio would have been 84.4% instead of the actual 30.1%. Our decomposition shows that concessional interest rates account for 5.8 percentage points of the gap, maturity structure for 17.7 percentage points and export orientation for 30.8 percentage points.
We have concluded that the major cause for the favorable 1982–84 outcome is competent management of the exchange rate. The absence of protracted exchange rate overvaluation from 1979 onward was fundamental in maintaining a strong nonoil tradeable sector. The nonoil tradeable sector was able to earn enough foreign exchange to service Indonesian debts when the external shock of high interest rates increased debt service payments and the recession in industrialized countries lowered the price of oil. The absence of extended exchange rate overvaluation also kept the external debt down and the maturity structure on the long side by not encouraging capital flight. We ascribe this use of the exchange rate to protect the tradeable sector as much to the existence of an influential political constituency consisting of neoclassical economists, Javanese peasants and Outer Island residents as to balance-of-payments considerations.
We recommend an aggressive exchange rate policy and two sets of supplementary measures to reduce the probability of a debt crisis in the medium run.     

国际保理对我国中小出口企业贸易融资的适用性分析

金融危机以来,如何解决我国中小企业贸易融资难的问题已成为国家政府、企业界以及学者和专家的研究焦点之一。本文通过文献整理与分析,比照西方国家的中小企业贸易融资政策,系统的总结了目前关于我国中小出口企业融资难的问题和对策的研究,特别是针对其在不同层面上提出的对策,指出对策的局限性以及可能带来的反作用。要从根本上解决这些信息不对称导致中小出口企业融资难的问题,可以加大国际保理业务的发展,建立中小企业信用数据库和评级机制,在风险可控的情况下,有效地帮助有竞争力的中小出口企业实现长足的发展。     

Of Positivism and the History of Economic Thought

The rhetoric of positivism had a profound effect on the worldview and practice of economists in the middle of the last century. Though this influence has greatly diminished, it still may be found in the attitude of many economists toward the history of their discipline. This article traces the effects of positivism in economics and then argues that the history of economics is a critical component of both the undergraduate teaching and the graduate training of economists, and that as such, it should be reintroduced into the economics curriculum. It concludes by documenting some recent hopeful signs of change.     

我国电子信息产品国际竞争力的影响因素分析——基于进口状况的实证研究

电子信息产业是我国重点扶持发展的行业,上世纪九十年代以来,电子信息产业得到了快速发展,出口贸易额不断提高。本文通过经济学模型工具对影响我国电子信息产业进口的相关要素进行研究,并针对问题提出合理的对策建议。     

Liquidity support to banks during Indonesia's financial crisis

During the 1997–98 financial crisis, Bank Indonesia provided liquidity support to many banks experiencing difficulties. This policy became controversial because of the magnitude of the likely losses to the government, which in the end would have to be borne by the general public. Suspicions of corruption involving bankers and officials of Bank Indonesia fuelled the debate. Surprisingly, however, concerns of this kind have not been raised in relation to the far larger amount of support provided to banks by the government in the form of recapitalisation bonds. The public's lack of understanding of the operations of the banking sector further complicated the debate. This paper attempts to shed some light on the central bank's actions and on the proposed solutions to the problems that arose from them.     

Deflation: When Austrians become interventionists

Conclusion The aforementioned six Austrian economists, especially Rothbard, refute most arguments that mainstream economists mention against deflation. To differing degrees they are much less deflation-phobic than the mainstream. Nevertheless, when it comes to deflation, they diverge very much and do not staunchly champion the free market. In contrast to their laissez-faire views on most other subjects, in order to fight deflation, they come up with an arsenal of state interventions, like government bailouts, redistribution of gold, amnesty and privileges for the banking system, government-planned monetary reforms, public works, credit expansion, and inflation. Curiously, with these interventions they want to prevent the liberating deflation, i.e., the free market reaction to an abstention of all government interventions into the monetary system, especially the fractional reserve banks’ privileges and amnesty. They fail to see that deflation is a fast, smooth, direct, and ethical way to a sound financial system.     

晋升激励与中国经济增长研究综述

政治晋升是中国地方官员治理的重要内容。如何从晋升激励的视角出发阐释地方政府的经济行为,从而对中国经济增长进行“政治——经济”的分析,这正受到越来越多经济学者的关注。文章结合中国地方官员治理机制中与政治晋升相关的三方面重要制度安排（晋升集权、相对绩效考核、隐性治理机制）,对晋升激励增长绩效的经济学文献进行了一个系统的梳理。     

中央银行沟通及其在美联储应对2007～2009金融危机过程中的应用

近十几年来,中央银行沟通(CBC)作为一种新型货币政策工具正日益受到学者和决策者的重视。本文在阐释CBC基本内涵基础上,从中央银行管理预期的角度深入论证了CBC调控经济的作用机制和沟通兴起的内在原因,并分析了CBC作为美联储的新武器在应对2007~2009年金融危机过程中的应用。本文主要结论如下:1.CBC以交流信息影响预期的方式调控经济,具有管理预期的独特优势;2.美联储的沟通在危机时期发挥了重要作用。本文的初步研究有助于把握CBC基本理论,对改善人民银行的沟通实践具有一定指导意义。     

Financial Globalization in Botswana and Nigeria: A Critique of the Thresholds Paradigm

Since the Asian financial crises, economists are more circumspect in their advocacy of ‘financial globalization’. A new consensus emerged which contends that increased financial liberalization and capital account openness may only produce economic benefits when countries are open to trade and have good institutions and policies in place. This paper critically reviews this consensus, which we term the ‘thresholds paradigm’, through a survey of the available literature and a comparative case study of two African countries that have undertaken financial and capital account liberalization: Nigeria and Botswana. The paper argues that the thresholds paradigm leaves important theoretical and policy-related questions unresolved, in particular, the origins of good institutions and policies. Further, while at first glance the paradigm appears to capture the divergent outcomes of financial globalization policies in Nigeria and Botswana, a deeper investigation reveals important factors that are neglected and occluded. The paper concludes that economists need to be more methodologically ambidextrous and must integrate institutional factors in their theoretical frameworks in order to better understand the outcomes of ‘financial globalization’ and to provide useful policy advice to developing countries contemplating financial reforms in the future.     

The Four Little Dragons: An Enthusiast's Reading Guide

This article surveys literature which attempts to explain the success of east Asia's four little dragons - Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore. The approach is chronological, with the period 1960–88 divided into phases marked by shifts in economic thought.
In general, the explanations of economists have lagged years behind events, with predictive exercises usually proving spectacular failures. On the whole, the neo-classical economists have had the best of the arguments, as they have been able to show that good policies are of crucial importance.     

The Political Economy of Interwar Egyptian Cotton Policy

The optimal tariff was a central concern to economists and policymakers in interwar Egypt. The government took the position that Egypt conformed to the small-country assumption in world cotton markets. Using time-series and panel data for the period 1895–1939, this article demonstrates that Egyptian long-staple cotton commanded significant market power in international markets. An optimal export tariff would have encouraged economic diversification and generated huge government revenues, making it possible to finance industrialization plans. However, the burden of taxation would have been shared by Egyptian landlords and British interests. Thus, an optimal export tariff was incompatible with the goals of Egypt's ruling elite, who dictated the orientation of trade policy until the 1950s.     

Trade Liberalization in Thailand: Income Distributional Impact and Financing Problem*

The relationship between industrial protection and income distribution has been of considerable interest among economists. Although the literature generally focuses on the returns to primary factors of production as measures of income distribution, this paper attempts to clarify the relationship in terms of poverty and income inequality. Simulation results of a general equilibrium model based on Thai data show that a move toward free trade would lead to a more equal distribution of income. However, it would also lead to a government budget deficit. The way the government chooses to finance the deficit could have important consequences for income distribution and economic growth.     

Outstanding Female Economists in the Analysis and Practice of Development Economics

This article examines the contributions of five eminent economists, all women, to the analysis and practice of development economics. Irma Adelman, Frances Stewart, and Nancy Birdsall are leading advocates of alternative development strategies that focus on poverty alleviation and investment in human capital. Anne Krueger and Alice Amsden stand at the forefront of two opposing camps in a lively and long-lasting debate on the appropriate role of government in trade and industrialization. We use the storied careers of these economists as a vehicle to convey the big picture of how development economics has evolved and which topics have proved durable.     

刍议我国民营企业红筹上市的法律监管

在国家"走出去"战略的指引下,国内企业——特别是国内的民营企业纷纷采用红筹方式实现海外上市。与此同时,红筹上市引发其监管问题,有待国内政府职能部门的监管方式和监管手段做出适时的调整。本文对我国民营企业红筹上市的监管问题进行了分析,并对我国红筹上市法律监管的完善问题提出了建议。     

The two crises in the Netherlands in 1557

Abstract

It is an axiom of economists of today that in the treatment of the economic conditions of a country the financial policy of the government, insofar as it may possibly react on economic life, must be considered and vice versa, that anybody undertaking an investigation into the finances of a state cannot pass any judgement on measures taken without having adequate knowledge of the prevailing economic conditions. In addition the political situation will for an economic historian form part of the picture. These remarks apply without gainsay I suppose to any treatment of developments of the present century.     

Dealing with bank system failure: Indonesia, 1997–2003

Indonesia's crisis recovery program has failed badly in relation to the two key objectives of development economics policy making: efficiency and equity. The economy went into severe recession within a few months of the IMF appearing on the scene, and six years later output was little higher than before the crisis. The collapse of the banking system and the associated government bailout of depositors has imposed a loss on the public of at least 40% of GDP. This paper describes that collapse and the government's policy response to it, under advice from the IMF. It goes on to propose an alternative scheme that might have been followed—and that could be followed in future banking crises. Its twin objectives are to maintain the integrity of the payments system and to avoid inequitable wealth transfers that result from government bailouts of banks and their depositors.     

浙江省能源消费现状及成因分析

随着浙江经济的迅速发展,浙江省的能源危机已经日益显现,以高投入、高消耗、高污染、高产出为主的粗放型发展模式已使浙江省的可持续发展面临困境。本文就是在浙江政府提出"十一五"期间实现单位国民生产总值能源消耗比"十五"期末降低15%这一目标的背景下,分析了浙江省能源消费现状及成因。     

Bankers on the Board,Market Competition,and Conflicts of Interest

Abstract

Bankers on the board are expected to act as a fund-raiser and to help lowering financial costs, but they can impose conflicts of interest between shareholders and creditors. We empirically analyse the impact of banker-directors on corporate leverage and investment, using Korean firm data during the period from 2000 to 2012. Bankers on the board turn out to play different roles depending on market competition and macroeconomic circumstance. In less competitive industries where banks are less concerned about financial distress as a creditor, the presence of bankers on the board has higher leverage and more active investment, which can align with the interest of shareholders. However, in more competitive environment where firms are more concerned about financial distress and external financing, bankers on the board do not always increase leverage and investment, which can be divergent from the interest of shareholders.     

Towards a new Bradshaw? Economic statistics and the British state in the 1950s and 1960s

This article outlines the attempts of British central government to react to the perceived inadequacy of official economic statistics. A huge amount of work went into this project, the main aim of which was to speed up the production of statistics so that the economy could be analysed in more detail, and thus better managed. If this was to work, more data was required on the labour market, on productivity, on production, and on the interlinkages between those indicators. British official statistics clearly were more comprehensive and more detailed at the end of this period than they had been at the start. Even so, the effort was usually thought to have been a failure by the early 1970s. More detail took time to produce; it was difficult to recruit the necessary staff; successive administrative reorganizations also absorbed energies. The devolved informality of British government hampered the emergence of an overall picture. Businesses and trade unions resisted attempts to collect more data, especially when it showed them in an unflattering light. Above all, the elite, specialist, and technical nature of the reform process meant that very little political and popular pressure built up to force through further changes.