石油项目投资的风险评估

石油项目是典型的风险项目,石油项目的投资风险在石油项目投资的筹划、实施过程中是客观存在的,风险分析是石油项目评估的重要内容之一。本文在分析石油风险因素的基础上建立了石油项目风险评估指标体系,用层次分析法确定风险指标权重,再运用灰色评估方法对石油项目投资的风险进行了定量评估,其结果能为石油项目投资提供决策参考依据。     

石油企业项目投资管理中的问题与对策

石油企业的项目投资管理的好坏是关乎企业生死存亡的大事，如果石油企业的项目投资管理不善将使得企业损失惨重，因此加强对石油企业项目投资管理的研究意义非常。本文主要阐述了石油企业项目投资管理的内容、问题以及对策，试图有效的促进石油企业项目投资管理的成功运行。     

融资约束、不确定性与公司投资:基于制造业上市公司面板数据的证据

针对我国制造业上市公司1998-2009年的面板数据,以厂商面临的不确定性水平为阈值变量建立分类指标函数,应用Hansen阈值估计法和system GMM估计法分析了融资约束和不确定性的交互关系对厂商投资行为的影响.研究发现:厂商投资行为存在显著的单一闯值效应,由模型内生决定的不确定性阈值所划分的两个样本组中,厂商固定投资与其现金流显著正相关,并且低不确定状态组别厂商的现金流估计系数远小于高不确定状态组别厂商的这一系数,表明厂商面临的不确定性程度越高,投资支出受融资约束程度越严重.上述结论不仅为融资约束假说提供了经验支持,也证实了不确定性会通过影响厂商受融资约束程度进而影响厂商投资行为.最后,讨论了实证结论的政策含义.     

论石油企业投资项目可行性研究策略

石油是国民经济的血液与命脉,它作为一种战略性资源,越来越成为全球关注和争夺的焦点。石油行业成为国家经济发展的支柱性产业,石油开采企业的可持续发展是确保国家经济发展的重要保证。石油企业投资必须做好投资项目论证评估、重视投资项目估算、编制项目可行性研究报告、加强投资项目风险防范。     

基于B-S模型的合同能源管理项目评价

合同能源管理是一种实现企业节能改造的有效方式.文章通过对合同能源管理项目不确定性分析,给出了基于B-S模型的合同能源管理项目评价原理,构建了合同能源管理项目B-S评价模型,讨论了合同能源管理项目B-S评价模型的精确性与输入数据的准确性,为不确定环境条件下合同能源管理项目的投资评价提供了一个新的思路和定量分析方法.     

“煤制油”：“中国特色”的能源战

放着现有的能源优势不利用,却因石油问题在政治、军事、外交上处处被动就不应该了最近,随着世界石油价格不断高企, 各界对石油问题高度敏感和关注。为了突围石油困局,中国舆论纷纷热炒“煤制油”项目,有报道指出,目前中国已经出现了“煤变油”的“千亿大跃进”。同时,有专家认为,“煤制油”与其发展机遇相比,更像是一个陷阱,因为它投资大、不可预计的风险高,前景并不乐观。“煤制油”项目目前在中国究竟处于什么状况,企业的投资价值如何,又在中国能源战略中处于什么样的位置呢?     

成本收益差异的房地产不对称双头期权博弈模型分析

文章运用不对称双寡头期权博弈模型考察在房地产开发项目中企业的策略投资决策。模型中,房地产开发企业的项目投资有固定的建设周期,项目产生现金流是在建成以后;并且,投资具有投资成本先动优势和投资收益后动优势,即追随企业的投资成本和租金流均高于领先企业。分析表明,建设周期、投资成本、投资成本先动优势、垄断投资收益、后动投资收益、商品房市场需求波动度等因素都影响企业的投资决策。存在投资成本差异的阈值,将两企业均衡投资策略划分为先占均衡、序列均衡和等待均衡。     

西伯利亚的秋明油田需要大量投资

拥有石油和天然气巨大储藏量的秋明州，已成为俄罗斯具有良好投资环境的地区之一。该地区投资积极性的显著增长，与俄罗斯联邦政府的政策、国际金融组织增加资金以及区域性投资网络的形成有失著名的“科尔梅斯”康采恩专家的评估认为，在迅速补偿大量投资的条件下，到2000年秋明地区完全能恢复原有的石油、天然气开采能力。该地区不同于塔尔斯坦和巴什科尔多斯坦自治共和国的石油开采。秋明在出口资源预算中，州的提成比例相当小，国家的投资也非常有限，同时独联体其它国家对发展能源项目还不太感兴趣，在此情况下，积极吸引外部资金已成为…     

国内石油工程企业开拓国际市场的探讨

随着世界经济走势的总体企稳,国际石油工程市场逐步转暖,呈现出新的发展趋势。文章通过对42个国家石油投资风险指数、投资吸引力指数排列区域分析,确定出国内石油工程企业开拓海外石油市场的重点国家,并提出具体的措施与建议。     

基于财务视角的投资项目决策研究

企业项目投资决策关系着企业的生存和发展。投资项目具有时间长、风险较高、不确定原因较多等特征。这就要求企业应该构建符合标准的评价制度,对于投资项目之后的社会经济效益与决策程度展开研究并总结,对企业日后道路上的发展奠定基础。文章主要研究了企业对于投资项目决策的原则,并且根据企业投资项目策略中产生的问题,提出通过财务管理增强内部管控和增强风险管控等完善企业项目投资决策的具体措施,为企业在进行投资决策时提供参考。     

A real options study on cook stove CDM project under emission allowance price uncertainty

South Korea is one of the countries that have been actively involved in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and global climate action as a party to the Paris Agreement. As the national emissions reduction target has been getting reinforced, an increasing number of South Korean firms have been participating into the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects to secure CER credits, one of which is the ‘improved energy-efficient cook-stove distribution project’ in developing countries. The purpose of this paper is to develop a real options model to analyze investment decisions on cook-stove distribution CDM project in Myanmar, where we estimate the optimal threshold CER price that makes the investment economically feasible. We also analyze the sensitivity of the threshold price across the investment parameters. The results show that our project was economically feasible at the time the project was launched, as the KOC prices were generally higher than the investment threshold price. The sharp decline of the KOC prices in 2020, however, deteriorated the economic feasibility of the project. The results suggest that various risk factors should be incorporated before making investment decisions.     

基于实物期权的地铁项目可行性研究

本文对地铁地产物业投资特性进行分析,从中找出地铁地产物业投资中所蕴涵的实物期权特性,提出地铁地产物业投资为一个欧氏看涨期权,并通过对B-S模型进行修正,得到地铁地产物业投资的实物期权模型,并对其进行实证,得出考虑了项目期权价值在内的项目总价值大于传统的净现值评估价值。因此,将实物期权运用于地铁地产物业投资决策领域,是充分地考虑了开发商的决策灵活性,使项目投资决策更接近于项目实际情况,也将有助于提高投资决策的正确性。期权价格对开发商和政府双方都更有利的是混合补偿的形式,能够在保障开发商利益的同时解决他们的在单纯地铁运营的亏损问题。     

Asymmetric effects of the exchange rate on domestic corporate goods prices

This paper empirically examines whether there are asymmetric effects of the exchange rate on domestic corporate goods prices when the exchange rate is more volatile. To identify different volatilities in the exchange rate, we employ a threshold regression model. In other words, we define exchange rate volatility as a threshold variable. By using monthly data from Japan, we estimate a threshold parameter and calculate its confidence interval by following Hansen (2000). The results substantiate that the degree of exchange rate pass-through to the aggregated corporate goods price index is higher and more gradually adjusted in a higher exchange rate volatility regime. Furthermore, such asymmetric relationships are clearly found in three disaggregated corporate goods prices: petroleum and coal products, nonferrous metals, and chemicals and related products.     

投资决策的线性规划模型及其应用

投资决策方案方法种类繁多,规划理论和数学模型是处理某些类型的投资方案决策问题的有效工具。针对投资方案是否相互独立,分别建立了独立型投资方案的线性规划模型和非独立型投资方案的0-1规划模型。实例分析表明,所建立的数学模型有效地解决了使投资方案净现值总和最大的优化求解问题。     

Expensing Versus Capitalization

We develop a theoretical framework to study the effects of expensing versus capitalization of investment expenditures on capital market asset prices, corporate investment, and investment efficiency. We use a two‐period model in which the financial reports at the end of the first period influence the price of the firm. In the first period, the current owner makes an investment decision that yields returns during the first and the second periods. We highlight the benefits and costs of the matching principle in GAAP and identify conditions under which less disclosure improves investment efficiency. We find that, in terms of investment efficiency, expensing beats capitalization if and only if the expected growth rate is high, the growth volatility is large, or the earnings persistence is small. We also offer testable empirical implications for accounting choice and for real earnings management.     

The Research of the Construction Time on City Infrastructure Projects

The project construction time is not sufficiently considered in the decision-making procedure of the extant city infrastructure project all over the world. From the principle to increase benefit from the investment, the paper discusses the influence of construction time on benefit from investment, the condition of the optimal construction time, the method to confirm the optimal construction time, etc., under the increases of market demand, the paper establishes mathematics model between the construction time and the project benefit, and the model involves the project age, the construction time, the capital cost, the market demand, the discount rate and so on. Finally, the paper quantitatively analyzes the influence characteristics and degrees of construction time to the project profits, and the method to determine the optimal construction time of a project under different market demand .To emphasize that, the paper researches on Chinese cases, but, the conclusion put forward has the widespread significance to the time choice on city infrastructure project of other countries.     

Application of Real Option Theory on Investment Decision of Mineral Resources Exploration Project

Mineral resources exploration projects always have long periods, large investments and high risks. At present NPV is a generally accepted method for investment decision of mineral resources exploration project; however, traditional NPV method is very limited to deal with uncertainties and flexibilities of mineral resources exploration projects, which can increase the value of the project. The real option theory provides a new way and quantitative tool for investors to consider the option and flexibility and gain management flexibility on their investment decision-making. This paper applies the real option theory to analyze a case of simplified mineral resources exploration project and discusses its application conditions in China.     

对生产资料价格指数作为先行指标的有效性分析

风险项目投资常常采用分阶段投资的形式 ,它为项目创造了一个追加投资的机会 ,本文引入期权理论、利用B—S期权定价模型来评估这个机会的价值 ,从而有效克服了传统净现值法的局限 ,增加了风险项目投资决策的合理性和科学性。     

基于外部性与经营期电价的风电经济性研究

风电的外部影响主体主要包括环境、电网和用户。将外部成本和收益内部化是研究风电经济性的前提条件。考虑了风电的减排效益及对电网备用的影响,基于经营期电价,测算其在预期收益下合理的上网电价,并提出经济发电利用小时数概念,为研究风电投资可行性提供参考。结果表明,在综合考虑内外部成本和收益的前提下,在目前技术条件下,风电合理的上网电价与我国现行风电标杆电价一致,仍高于常规能源电价。结果证明了方法的有效性。