Analysis of Chinese Manufacturing Export Duration

This paper studies the duration of Chinese manufacturing exports and its determinants, using disaggregated 6‐digit level Harmonized System product trade data from 1995 to 2007. Cox proportional hazard, Weibull and exponential models are used to examine the effects of various factors on export duration. It is revealed that export duration tends to be rather short‐lived. It is also found that GDP and GDP per capita of the export destination have positive effects on export duration, while trade relationships with distant and landlocked countries are generally of shorter duration. In addition, export duration is longer for differentiated and parts and components products, as well as products with large initial trade values. WTO membership is also important for longer export duration. Our empirical analysis suggests that developed markets, such as the USA and the EU, are important to China, and should still be the major sources for Chinese export growth in the long run. Moreover, technical innovation of firms and free trade agreement negotiations will be helpful for sustainable export growth.     

Input Trade Liberalization and the Export Duration of Products: Evidence from China

This paper introduces a quasi‐natural experimental framework into trade policy evaluation and reassesses China's trade liberalization through the survival of export products. We use propensity score matching and China's dual trade system to design a quasi‐natural experiment based on Chinese industrial enterprises, customs import and export, and tariff data over the period of 2000–2006; we then use survival analysis to study the impacts of China's trade liberalization on the export duration of manufacturing firms’ products. We find that the substantial reduction in import tariffs after China's accession to the World Trade Organization enhances the export duration of firm products, indicating that trade liberalization ameliorates the survival of export products. The promotion effects of tariff reduction on export duration are obviously stronger for core products than for noncore products.     

Adjusting to Trade Liberalisation: The Case of Firms in the South African Textile Sector

This paper examines the responses of firms in the textile industryof South Africa to that country's rapid liberalisation of tradesince the early 1990s. The data reveal that there have beenincreased exports accompanied by reductions in employment andcontraction of production of yarns and fabrics. Drawing on asurvey of companies, followed by interviews, it documents howcompetitive pressures from imports have led firms to increasetheir exports. Exporting is not, however, directly associatedwith better performance. This is due to its being a responseby many firms to weak domestic demand and the need to maintainproduction capacity. But, liberalisation has also been accompaniedby much upgrading of equipment and by increased specialisationand vertical disintegration in order to develop competitiveniches despite South Africa's manufacturing wage levels beinghigher than those of many of its international competitors.Firms focusing on non-price factors of export competitivenesshave been better performing. Firms have also been most successfulwhere technological capabilities based on the domestic marketprovided a foundation for export competitiveness. There areindications that with the restructuring induced by liberalisationthe sector is in a position more effectively to exploit itscompetitive strengths in international markets. In addition,the United States' African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA)offers some stimulus for the textile industry to supply fabricsto firms in the export garment sector which previously importedthem.     

The impact of exchange rate movements on multi-product firms' export performance: Evidence from China

This paper investigates the effects of RMB exchange rate movements on Chinese multi-product firms' export behavior using China's firm-level micro data and highly disaggregated customs data over 2000–2007. We find that real appreciation of RMB exerts negative effects on Chinese multi-product firms' export prices and export quantities, and the effects are significantly different across firms with different productivity as well as the product ladder within multi-product firms. In addition, we document that real appreciation of RMB narrows multi-product firms' export scope and induces firms to skew their export sales towards the best performing products. Finally, the paper explores the effects of RMB exchange rate movements on firms' export duration, and shows that real appreciation of RMB lengthens the export duration of core products but shortens the export duration of non-core products.     

Extreme heat and exports: Evidence from Chinese exporters

Does extreme heat have causal effects on exports? If so, how do the effects evolve? This paper exploits monthly fluctuations in the number of extremely hot days within a city to identify their effects on firm-level exports in that city. We find robust evidence that hot temperatures have persistent adverse effects on firm-level exports. Specifically, export losses gradually arise following a heat shock, beginning from an undetectable impact and eventually accumulating to a large and significant impact. An additional >30 °C day in a month could generate cumulative losses up to 0.83% of a firm's annual exports twenty-four months later. The negative effects of extreme heat are mainly through its adverse impacts on the firm's investment, capital, and production output. Capital-intensive sectors and FDI-related enterprises are among the most affected by high temperatures. Our findings support the “no-recovery” hypothesis after weather extremes and have implications for future climate change policies.     

Do trade agreements increase Vietnam's exports to RCEP markets?

The paper reviews recent developments in trade relations between Vietnam and members of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement, and analyses the impacts on Vietnam's exports of tariff reductions in RCEP trading partners. The margin of tariff preferences is adopted as a proxy for the degree of trade liberalisation and a gravity model is used to assess the impacts of the tariff preferences under the AFTA and ASEAN+1 FTAs on Vietnam's major exports. The results show that the effects of tariff preferences differ between the types of preferences and products. The FTA tariff preferences do not exert a stimulating effect on the export of agricultural products but they have positive effects on several manufacturing exports such as garments and footwear.     

Export Promotion Policies and the Crowding‐out Effect in Developing Countries*

Critics of export promotion policies have pointed out a fallacy of composition, where what is viable for a small country acting in isolation might not be viable when pursued by a group of countries simultaneously. This paper investigates the crowding‐out effect of the fallacy of composition; that is, whether developing countries that specialize in exports of manufactured products compete and crowd out one another's exports. The results of fixed‐effects panel estimation suggest that developing countries are not crowding out one another's exports. Instead, they are crowding out Western European countries’ exports of manufactured products.     

Does Experience Facilitate Entry nto New Export Destinations？

Using a large panel dataset that covers 116 countries and 5013products over the period 1998-2010, this study evaluates the effects of export experience on the geographic expansion of China ＂s exports. The results suggest that past export experience in geographically close and culturally similar markets plays a crucial role in.facilitating new market entry, and the positive spillover effects are more pronounced for incumbent and successful products. The results also indicate that spillovers from export experience are market-specific and product- specific, and they are limited to within the same product class and the same market, with little cross-group effects. Finally, there is no strong evidence that export experience is more important for differentiated products than for homogeneous products, and the positive spillover effects are remarkable for both categories of products.     

企业出口模式与出口产品质量:微观理论与经验证据

文章借鉴Khandelwal et al.（2013）扩展的产品质量异质性模型,构建了一个两国之间产品贸易的一般均衡模型,并推导企业出口模式选择影响产品质量升级的理论框架,再利用2000-2013年中国工业企业和海关数据构建双重差分模型对理论假说进行系统检验。结果发现：（1）直接出口企业对产品质量的提升效应明显高于间接出口企业,"反事实"检验和安慰剂检验的结果依然稳健。（2）通过异质性分析发现,东部地区企业出口的产品质量提升效应显著高于中西部地区企业,而且中西部地区的间接出口抑制出口产品质量提升;民营、外资企业直接出口和间接出口对产品质量提升效应均高于国有企业。（3）进一步研究企业出口模式的动态转换效应发现,企业由间接出口转向直接出口显著提升了出口产品质量,并且生产率较高的企业通过提升出口固定成本效率而加速出口产品质量升级。     

山东省农业科技进步与农产品出口关系实证研究

对山东省农产品出口现状进行分析,利用C-D函数模型对山东省农业科技进步率进行测算,然后构建VAR模型,利用山东省农业科技进步率与农产品出口额两个指标,分析山东省农业科技进步与农产品出口之间的关系。研究结果表明,山东省农业科技进步不是促进农产品出口的主要原因,农产品出口是促进科技进步的原因,农业科技进步与农产品出口之间尚未形成显著的相互促进关系,最后提出相关建议。     

The impact of destination tariffs on China’s exports: Country,firm, and product perspectives

Based on multi-product heterogeneous firm trade theory, we combine China's customs data with the World Integrated Trade Solution’s (WITS) tariff data from 2002 to 2013 and analyze the impact of destination tariffs on China's exports at the country, firm, and product levels. The results reveal that tariffs had a negative effect on country-level exports and their extensive margins. After controlling for the inter-firm composition effect, tariffs had negative effects on firm-level exports and their intensive margins, but positive effects on their extensive margins. After also controlling for the within-firm export composition effect, tariffs had a negative impact on the exports of core products; however, the negative impact diminished as the core grade and technological content of the products increased. Using these elasticities to analyze Sino-U.S. trade frictions, we determine that the additional U.S. tariffs reduced China's exports of high-tech products more than its medium- and low-tech products.     

森林认证对中国林产品出口影响的实证分析

采用引力模型中“单国模式”,利用面板数据研究森林认证对中国林产品出口的影响。实证研究表明,中国对主要出口的24个国家的林产品出口额受到进口国的人口数量、中国与进口国之间的直线距离以及进口国对森林认证的重视程度的综合影响,其中人口数量的增加促进了我林产品出口额的增长,而国与国之间的距离以及进口国对森林认证的重视程度阻碍了中国林产品的出口。     

产出波动、需求转移与出口退税的出口激励效果——一个基于中国出口面板数据的研究

本文在出口竞争模型基础上分析了出口退税、产出波动和需求转移对中国出口的影响,结果发现,出口退税对出口具有显著的促进作用,而这种出口的激励效果在不同的时期有显著的差异。其中,危机时期出口退税的出口激励效果高于承平时期的出口激励效果。这一结果表明,适时提高出口退税率是危机时期我国刺激出口的一条行之有效的措施。     

全球价值链参与对出口产品质量的影响

基于微观企业数据,研究了全球价值链分工对出口产品质量的影响,得到以下结论：从整体上看,企业GVC上游参与程度提高有助于提升出口产品质量,而下游参与程度提高阻碍了出口产品质量的提升。从分组检验中看,企业GVC上游参与度提高对出口产品质量有稳健的正效应;而下游参与度提高的效应对于不同特征的组别存在差异,加工贸易企业GVC下游参与度提高有利于产品质量的提高,而一般贸易企业GVC下游参与度提高不利于产品质量的提高;外资企业GVC下游参与度提高的质量效应较明显,而对于国有企业该效应较弱;低技术类型企业GVC下游参与度的提高有助于产品质量提升,而对中、高技术类型企业来说则有显著的负效应。文章还发现GVC下游参与通过"中间品效应"、"溢出效应"渠道提升了出口产品质量。     

The effect of oil price on China's exports

The increase in oil prices in recent years has occurred concurrently with a rapid expansion of Chinese exports in the world markets, despite China being an oil importing country. In this paper we develop a theoretical model that explains the positive correlation between Chinese exports and the oil price. The model shows that Chinese growth can lead to an increase in oil prices that has a stronger impact on its export competitors. This is due to the large labor force surplus of China. We then examine this hypothesis by estimating a reduced form equation for Chinese exports using Rodrik [Rodrik, Dani, 2006. What's so special about China's exports? China and World Economy 14, 1–19.]'s measure of export competitiveness, together with the oil price, productivity, real exchange rate, and foreign industrial production over the monthly 1992–2005 period. The results suggest a stable relationship and yields slightly positive values for the price of oil and elastic coefficients for export competitiveness, along with the expected negative elasticity for the real exchange rate.     

中美科技“脱钩”下高新技术产品进出口贸易的影响因素分析——基于20个国家和地区贸易数据的引力模型

近年来,中美关系收紧,美对华科技领域的遏制行为愈演愈烈。美国不仅对华高技术出口采取一系列的管制措施,还对自中国进口的高新技术产品做加征关税的限制。基于此,对中国高新技术产品的进出口贸易特征做深入研究,研究结果发现,中国高新技术产品的进出口结构比较单一。在主要伙伴国进出口贸易数据的基础上,利用引力模型对影响高新技术产品进出口的因素做进一步的实证研究。结果显示：国家创新力和对外开放度的提升对高新技术产品的出口均具有促进作用;且增加高新技术产品的出口有助于改变中国在外贸上大而不强的现状,提升在全球价值链中的地位。     

Do High-technology Exports Cause More Technology Spillover in China？

The volume of China’s high-technology exports has grown sharply since the implementation of its export promotion strategy "Revitalizing Trade through Science and Technology" in 1999.This paper investigates whether technology spillover effects are greater for hightechnology exports than for primary manufactured goods exports.We present a generalized multi-sector spillover model to identify both between spillover effects from exports towards non-exporters and within-spillover effects among export sectors.Using panel data for 31 provinces in China over the period from 1998 to 2005,we find that although high-technology export sectors have higher productivity compared with other sectors,this productivity advantage does not lead to technology spillover to both domestic sectors and other export sectors,and export technology spillover mainly derives from traditional export sectors rather than high-technology export sectors.As such findings can be largely attributed to the fact that China’s high-technology exports depend significantly on processing trade by foreign- invested firms,policy implications are discussed in relation to how to best promote the role of China’s high-technology exports during economic expansion.     

EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION AND INTRA-INDUSTRY TRADE IN SOUTH AFRICA

This paper uses cumulative export experience functions to explore the structural dynamics of South Africa's exports for the period 1990–2003. It finds a large spread of emerging non‐traditional accelerating export products across industry clusters of different factor intensities, steadily increasing their proportion in total exports and her main markets. Shift‐share and correlation analyses show that increased intra‐industry specialisation and trade within import competing product groups explain the structural change in the direction of export diversity. With respect to quality, as measured by relative unit prices of exports and imports in intra‐industry trade with the EU and the US, a relative improvement of export quality is found.     

Dynamic products in world exports

The values of three product categories have grown most rapidly in world exports during the period 1980–2000: electrical and electronic goods (including parts and components for such goods), goods from other technology-intensive industries, and labour-intensive products, particularly clothing. A strong geographical concentration at both regional and country levels is discernable regarding the origin of these products from developing countries. There appears to be a sustained movement in world exports towards the growing significance of a limited number of products and it would seem that there has been a rapid and sustained technological upgrading in the export composition of developing countries. However, since the involvement of developing countries is usually limited to the labour-intensive stages in the production process of technology-intensive goods in the context of international production sharing, simple measures of growth in gross export values are poor guides for an assessment of the nature of participation of developing countries in world trade.     

Export survival and the dynamics of experience

This paper focuses on developing countries’ pioneer exports to the OECD and obtains several important results on export dynamics, linking export experience and export survival. Using product level data at the SITC 5-digit level for 114 developing countries over the 1962–2009 period, we show that prior export experience obtained in non-OECD markets significantly increases survival of pioneer exports toward the OECD. The experience does not need to last long, as gaining experience for more than two years does not confer any additional benefit. The effect of experience depreciates rapidly with time: a break in export experience prior to entering the OECD reduces the advantage on survival. Finally, the role of prior export experience is particularly relevant for survival in the first two years upon entry into the OECD. The geographic dynamic of export experience reveals that experience is acquired in neighboring, easy to access markets before reaching more distant, richer partners and ultimately serving the OECD with a higher probability of survival.