中国市场体系的渐进孵化:基于国家能力的视角

国家能力是解释中国成功进行市场体系渐进孵化的关键。文章首先对中国独特的市场体系渐进孵化逻辑进行了总结梳理和阐述,回顾了二战以来市场体系孵化的全球经验,然后分析了学习能力、财政能力和法治能力与渐进孵化的双向互促共进关系,最后从一般意义上提炼了中国渐进孵化市场体系的经验及规律。文章是从国家能力角度阐释中国市场体系渐进孵化实践的重要尝试。     

Time and path dependencies in foreign acquisition behaviours: The history of Danish take-overs abroad

Abstract

Is the present investment behaviour of firms acquiring other firms abroad an outcome of historic tradition and the time period in which the take-over started? For example, avoiding tariffs was a popular strategy in the period before World War I. Today, the build up of competence is a central strategy. Throughout the research period covered in this paper, market access is an important acquisition motive. This paper illustrates acquisition motives as a product of time and path dependencies, seen in the case of Danish industrial firms acquiring foreign firms between 1888 and the early 1990s. When deciding on their first international acquisition, most firms are influenced by the strategic trend of the period. They subsequently follow this motive for decades. However, some firms are able to break this time-related path dependency and follow the prevailing motive of the next period.     

日本产业政策与竞争政策的关系及其对中国的启示

文章通过战后日本产业政策与竞争政策关系的演变,来评价日本政府与市场和企业的关系。日本政府根据不同经济发展时期的实际需要及时调整产业政策与竞争政策关系的经验,对目前处于经济转型期的中国具有积极的借鉴意义。     

Innovation and upheaval: early growth in Greek capital market listings and IPOs from 1880 to the Second World War in the Athens Stock Exchange†

The establishment and growth of the Greek stock market were coincident with development episodes, financial upheavals, and geographic expansions of the country's economy over the period 1880–1940. This article explores the growth of the Athens Stock Exchange through new listings and initial public offerings (IPOs) in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. We examine changes in exchange governance and listing requirements. On a theme not addressed before , we find that simple listings were far more numerous than actual IPOs. IPOs in Greece remained unregulated throughout the period. Their under‐pricing became pronounced in the later parts of the period, especially the 1920s. The study presents data on ‘quasi‐IPOs’ (that is, capital increases shortly after listing) and shows that they offer a more accurate assessment of the demand for the financing of listing firms in an emerging market. Robust evidence is presented to show that as the Exchange developed it also underwent a change in character, becoming more oriented to the domestic market and catering to smaller firms in domestic manufacturing in the post‐First World War era that marked the end of early globalization.     

The Murupara Project and Industrial Development in New Zealand 1945–65

In New Zealand, after the Second World War, the share of manufacturing in GDP rose relative to the share of agriculture. Although the government lacked a clearly articulated industrial policy, it was increasingly drawn into the promotion and support of firms in manufacturing. The Murupara pulp and paper scheme was the most spectacular instance of state intervention in the first two postwar decades. Tasman, the company set up to operate the pulp and paper mill, was a joint venture between the state, a New Zealand construction firm called Fletchers, and British multinationals. Tasman soon became New Zealand's leading exporter of manufactured products. The need to secure the market for Tasman's newsprint exports was one of the main reasons for the negotiation of a partial free trade agreement between New Zealand and Australia in 1965. This article explains the early history of Murupara, and discusses its contribution to industrial development and diversification in New Zealand.     

Modern theories of regulation: An old story. Danish gasworks in the nineteenth century

Abstract

The Great Northern Telegraph Company was established in 1869 and enjoyed a very successful era thanks to a de-facto monopoly on the telegraph lines from Northern Europe to the Far East. After 1945 the Company changed its focus from telegraphy to wireless communication and electronic equipment. This article presents an analysis of the dramatic developments in the decades following the Second World War.

The relationship between the changing strategies and the established structure is analysed using Alfred D.Chandler Jr's well-known Strategy and Structure concept. After 40 years this concept still seems relevant to the understanding of the peculiar capacity for survival and growth demonstrated by old, well-established firms. In the conclusion it is argued that the post-war growth of the Great Northern Telegraph Company was based on several factors. These were the fortune originating from the Company's golden age in the 1910s and the 1920s, the industry investment strategy during and after the Second World War and finally, the changes of the organisational structure in the 1970s, which created the vital correspondence between strategy and structure.     

Woolgrowers, brokers and the debate over the sale of the Australian wool clip, 1920-1925

Prior to the First World War, the selling of the Australian wool clip rested firmly in the hands of the large woolbroking firms. An agreement between the British and Australian governments during the war saw many of the wool-selling functions of broking firms taken over by the Central Wool Committee. At the conclusion of hostilities, brokers moved to regain their role in the market. However, market conditions had changed. On an international level, traditional trading relationships had broken down, leaving commodity markets unstable and prices unpredictable. On a local level, woolgrowers had benefited from the wartime orderly marketing scheme and the high price guaranteed by the British government for their wool clip. As a result, they had begun to demand a greater role in the selling arrangements of their clip. This paper investigates the debates over the sale of the wool clip in the 1920s and how woolbrokers and growers eventually arrived at an understanding as to the manner in which the market should operate.     

Books and publications received

ABSTRACT

Economic theory predicts that regional wages will converge as transport and communication technologies bring labour markets together. An exploration of this transition from labour market segmentation to unification requires long-term evidence of nominal wages and cost of living by region. This paper presents new evidence of wages for male manufacturing workers and cost-of-living indices across 24 Swedish counties between 1860 and 2009. Our findings indicate that the Swedish regional wage differentials were a great deal larger in the 1860s than in the 2000s. Most of the compression took place between the 1860s and World War I, as well as in the 1930s and during World War II. Differences in expenditures on housing impact on our assessment of convergence in the post-World War II decades: the nominal measure declines, while the real one stays constant. Our concluding discussion engages with the assumption that before World War I, regional wage convergence was associated with labour mobility, spurred by improved communication and transportation technologies as well as by the implementation of modern employment contracts. In the 1930s and 1940s, in contrast, regional wage convergence can be traced to high unionisation and centralised collective bargaining in the labour market, two distinguishing features of the Swedish Model.     

Successful Adjustment in Indian Industry: the Case of Ludhiana's Woolen Knitwear Cluster

This paper examines the case of adjustment in a labor-intensive export industry (woolen knitwear) to understand how traditional sectors in developing regions cope with external crises and rise above them. India's woolen knitwear industry, concentrated in Ludhiana, recently survived two crises—the collapse of its largest export market (the former Soviet Union), and the simultaneous opening up of the domestic market to freer trade. After an unusually short downturn, the cluster not only recovered rapidly, but is increasingly diversifying into more demanding and competitive external markets. Four factors are key to explaining this surprisingly resilient recovery. First, the best performing firms had a strong and simultaneous presence in dynamic segments of the domestic market alongside exports. This generated key organizational learning, and built managerial and production capacities that helped firms adapt quickly to more demanding markets later. Second, an important feature of the learning relationship between first-time exporters and their foreign buyers was the small-scale nature of contracts and a “customization of fit” between the producer and the feedback-giving intermediary. Third, better performing firms paid equal if not greater attention to making organizational changes in their work practices than to the purchase of new equipment. Fourth, the embedded nature of production networks, and the government's past programs to assist local firms have indirectly helped create a dynamic middle-tier of locally-rooted exporters who appear to be leading the cluster's transformation and modernization.     

Old stocks,new owners: Two cases of ownership change in China's stock market

During the 1990s, ownership of China's listed firms remained stable: state entities remained in control of restructured state-owned enterprises since only a minority of shares were allowed to trade publicly and to be owned privately. However, since 1999, the ownership of China's listed firms has become more fluid due to the development of an off-exchange market in ‘legal person’ shares. This paper examines two such cases of ownership change. The case of Taitai's take-over of Lizhu shows that transfer of control is now occurring on a commercial basis. However, the Baiwen case shows that buy-outs are still being organized by government entities to support failing state firms. The deals suggest that while the government is using all means to restructure listed firms, rather than de-list them, it is also moving to create a competitive market in control.     

American stock market development and performance, 1871–1929

The American stock market played a central role in the allocation of investment funds during the late 19th and early 20th centuries. During the same period the market underwent profound institutional change. Tests of market efficiency are employed to characterize the market's performance, and to ascertain what specific institutional features affected that performance. The market receives mixed reviews. At no time was evidence of substantial market inefficiency apparent. However, money market instability before World War I, and the absence of federal regulation after 1900 did cause stock prices to wander modestly from their “efficient market” values. In both cases intervention by the federal government appears to have improved market performance.     

The changing distribution of earnings in Ireland, 1937 to 1968

Data from the Irish Census of Industrial Production are used to illuminate changes in the distribution of earnings from 1937 to 1968, an important period in Irish economic history, relevant to debates about globalization and inequality. Between the late 1930s and mid‐1950s there was a greater compression of earnings than in the US's ‘great compression’ of the same period. Sectoral data suggest that this occurred quite generally. The degree of integration with the British labour market is key, and the impact of out‐migration, wage controls during the Second World War, and industrial protection all merit in‐depth investigation.     

Land costs,government intervention,and migration of firms: The case of China

By using unique firm relocation data in China, we first document the relocation behavior of Chinese firms and show that less government intervention (relative to market forces) can improve economic efficiency by facilitating industrial relocation which saves on costs. Ever since China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, investments have poured into the coastal region, which in turn, have almost tripled land costs in the major coastal cities. We exploit this land cost shock in the early 2000s to identify its effect on the relocation behavior of firms. Specifically, we instrument land price growth with the access of a city to foreign markets (approximated by distance to Shanghai), and then estimate the differential impact of land costs on firms regarding land reliance. Our major findings are as follows: (1) the migration rate of Chinese firms in China is on average 3.2%, (2) Rising land costs drive firms to migrate, and firms that use more land-intensive technology are more compelled to migrate, and (3) in regions where the local government intervention is stronger (the market is less developed), the relocation decision of Chinese firms is distorted in the sense that firms are less likely to relocate despite surging land prices due to government intervention.     

The decline of economic complementarity? Australia and Britain 1945—1952

At the end of the Second World War, Australia implemented a development program designed to improve the nation's defence capabilities through a rapid increase in population and the growth of manufacturing industry. These plans were contrary to the vision of `complementarity' promoted by the United Kingdom, in which the British economy would export manufactured goods to other members of the Commonwealth in return for primary products. Despite British objections, the Chifley government persevered in its development policy although Australia did control the level and origin of its imports to fit the availability of dollars within the Sterling Area. In the early 1950s, however, the Menzies government attacked the autarchic policies of the Sterling Area, first by arranging to borrow dollars directly from the World Bank, and later by calling for an abandonment of the inward focus of the Sterling Area.     

A monetary plethora and what to do with it: the Bank of Portugal during the Second World War and the postwar period (1931–60)

Until the Second World War the Bank of Portugal (BoP) was a long way from possessing the features normally associated with a central bank. It was still a commercial bank, albeit one that had acquired some central bank functions. The war period was decisive in removing this ambiguity. The change was caused mostly by an unusually large influx of international means of payment (gold and foreign exchange) as a consequence of Portugal's neutrality during the war. However, all of this happened during a very troubled period for the BoP, thanks to the collapse of the gold‐exchange standard. The BoP adapted quickly to the new environment of discretion, government interference, and nationalism, although in a relatively original way: it followed the trend but at the same time retained certain features of a central bank still committed to gold standard principles. The two essential objectives of the BoP were to keep the value of the Portuguese currency stable and to keep interest rates low in order to encourage economic growth. The bank was successful on both counts during the war and the postwar period using a series of non‐conventional instruments.     

War,food rationing,and socioeconomic inequality in Germany during the First World War

Germany experienced a devastating period during the First World War due to severely restricted import possibilities and a general shortage of foodstuffs. This study uses the heights of some 4,000 individuals who served during the Second World War to quantify biological living standards from the 1900s to the 1920s, and focuses primarily on socioeconomic inequality during this period. The results suggest that generally the upper social strata, measured by fathers' occupation, exhibited the tallest average height, followed by the middle and lower classes. These socioeconomic differences became more pronounced during the First World War when the rationing system provided a limited food supply. Wealthier individuals were able to purchase additional foodstuffs on black markets. Therefore, children from upper‐class families experienced only a small decline in average height compared to their counterparts from the middle and lower social strata.     

The South African social safety net: past,present and future

Discriminatory social provision in South Africa originated soon after Union. This differentiation continued in the period before Nationalist rule, but there were also attempts at liberalisation, particularly during the Second World War. Nationalist rule brought with it a reversal of what little gains may have been made. From the early 1970s there was a gradual shift away from apartheid dogma. Future policies will need to eliminate gaps in the social safety net and ensure that adequate entitlements are delivered prudently and cost‐effectively.     

Unity or diversity? On the integration and efficiency of rice markets in Indonesia, c. 1920-2006

The emergence of an integrated national economy in Indonesia has been a slow and ongoing evolutionary process. Using rice price series for a number of cities across the Indonesian archipelago, this paper provides quantitative evidence to track this process for the specific case of the rice market. It shows that during Indonesia’s colonial period rice markets were relatively well integrated and functioned efficiently. However, the Second World War and the subsequent struggle for independence resulted in disintegrated and inefficient markets. It is only since the late 1970s that markets in Indonesia have returned to a situation in which we can speak about a national integrated economy with well-functioning markets.     

Big business in Sweden: The golden age of the great Swedish shipyards, 1945–1974

Abstract

This article examines the great Swedish shipyards during the long period of expansion and transformation which lasted from the end of the Second World War to the beginning of the shipping crisis in 1974. It aims to try to explain the successes achieved during this period of growth. Swedish shipbuilding's character as an export industry was linked to the rapidly growing international oil economy and the building of tankers which created enormous opportunities for development. The tanker vessel's simple hull, along with the requirement of tightness, brought an early orientation towards welding and sectional building. The demand for ever-larger vessels resulted in the alignment of production systems towards such construction. The consequences of this are studied in terms of markets, financing problems, investment. production technology and the role ofthe state.     

Capital income taxation of Swedish households, 1862–2010

This study describes the evolution of capital income taxation, including corporate, dividend, interest, capital gains and wealth taxation, in Sweden between 1862 and 2010. To illustrate the evolution, we present annual time-series data on the marginal effective tax rates on capital income (METR) for a marginal investment financed with new share issues, retained earnings or debt. These data are unique in their consistency, thoroughness and time span. We identify four tax regimes separated by shifts in economic policy. The first regime stretches from 1862 until the Second World War. The METR is low, stable and does not exceed 5% until the First World War, when the METR begins to drift upwards and varies depending on the source of finance. The outbreak of the Second World War establishes the second regime, when the magnitude and variation of the METR sharply increase. The METR peaks during the third regime in the 1970s and 1980s and often exceeds 100%. The 1990–1991 tax reform represents the beginning of the fourth regime, which is characterised by lower and smaller variations in the METR. The METR varies between 15% and 40% at the end of this period.