基于生产率视角的全球经济失衡研究

长期而言,生产率几乎意味着一切。那么,近三十多年的全球经济失衡与世界各国生产率变化有关吗?为此,本文立足生产率视角,基于一个由18个OECD国家1970~2010年度面板数据组成的数据样本,利用PVAR计量模型实证分析生产率冲击对经常项目失衡的影响及传导机制。实证结果表明,生产率对经常项目造成正向影响的一个重要传导机制是,生产率的变化导致实际汇率贬值进而改善经常项目。方差分解结果表明,生产率冲击是解释一个国家经常项目变动的关键变量。稳健性分析结果表明,冲击效应的大小、持久性与国家的开放度以及该国经常项目失衡方向有关,相对而言,开放经济体中的冲击效应更大,逆差国家的冲击效应更大。本文研究对认识全球经济失衡的产生根源、发生机理以及纠正全球经济失衡有着重要的理论价值与政策含义。     

中国应对全球经济失衡的政策选择

一、全球经济失衡的表现及原因 (一)全球经济失衡的表现 目前,全球失衡已愈加明显.一是全球经常项目的失衡.1995年美国的经常项目逆差占全球总逆差的33%,2007年上升到65.1%.     

齐心协力消除全球经济失衡

【美国《华尔街日报》10月25日】七大工业国（G7）、国际货币基金组织（IMF）、世界银行（WorldBank）不久前在华盛顿召开了会议，此时重温全球经济失衡问题、同时研究如何处理这把悬在全球经济头上的达摩克利斯之剑具有重要意义。全球经济失衡主要表现为美国巨额的经常项目赤字，以及中国、日本和石油出口国与之形成鲜明对比的经常项目盈余。[第一段]     

经常账户失衡的调整:国际经验及其对中国的启示

本文对1980至2005年期间全球范围内106个国家或地区的经常账户失衡调整进行了研究,通过界定经常账户失衡进行调整的事后标准进而识别出经常账户赤字或者盈余的不同调整期间。在对经常账户调整期间合理识别的基础上,本文考察了经常账户失衡调整的国际经验,并且利用Probit模型进行了经验研究。研究结果表明,一些经济变量对于经常账户失衡的调整具有显著的预测作用。本文借助于近30年的经常账户失衡调整的国际经验,结合中国经济发展过程中的现实情况对经常账户收支盈余调整提出了相关政策建议。     

豪斯克-麦奇不对称效应与经常账户失衡的结构性成因

美国经常账户的失衡不仅影响其本国经济,还严重地影响着全球经济。本文在全面分析美国经常账户组成结构的基础上,研究了“豪斯克.麦奇不对称效应”及其造成经常账户失衡的原因,具体包括移民效应、供给效应、生产在全球的重新配置以及国际贸易的组成。由此我们得出结论:美国经常账户失衡的原因是结构性的,所以扭转失衡的方法也应当是结构性的。     

国际金融整合下资金流动与经济增长关系研究——基于新兴经济体面板数据的分析

在引入特定的宏观经济、金融和政策变量等控制变量后,本文尝试检验东欧、东亚和拉丁美洲三大主要新兴经济体的资金流动方向及其对经济增长的影响。实证结果显示:东欧地区收入水平与金融深化程度仍然偏低,但随着发展程度提高,未来将由资金流入转为流出。东亚地区的超额外汇储备、贸易顺差与资金流出,被指控为造成美国巨额经常账户赤字与全球经常账户失衡的主要原因之一。但该地区若能够持续进行金融深化,资金可能回流并使全球经常账户失衡现象得以缓解。至于拉丁美洲地区的宏观经济、金融和政策变量,对资金流动方向并无决定性影响,财政与货币政策仍是决定资金流入能否有助于经济增长的关键因素。最后,本文对解决我国国际收支不平衡问题提出了政策建议。     

全球经济失衡的调整及其对中国经济的影响

全球经济失衡的问题近来受到人们越来越多的关注,学者、政策当局以及国际机构对于全球经济失衡的原因、是否有必要对全球经济失衡进行调整、如何进行这种调整、以及全球经济失衡的调整对世界经济和相关国家的影响等问题进行了热烈的讨论.本文的目的是探讨全球经济失衡可能的调整途径,以及这种调整对中国经济的影响.     

2006全球经济失衡并增长着

当前如果讨论全球经济的问题,就无法避免全球经济失衡的问题,只有在全球经济失衡的基础上,才能看清楚整个金融经济的趋势,所以这里我重点讲四个问题:第一是持续的全球经济金融的结构性失衡,在这个基础上谈一下2006年的全球经济展望和2006年全球金融展望以及影响全球经济金融的主要风险因素。2002年,很多投资银行家在讨论全球经济失衡的时候,已经意识到整个全球的经济金融正在进行一个重大变化,这个变化就是美国和中国本身的失衡,美国和亚洲的失衡并由此形成了全球的失衡。但是当时人们认为中国和美国以及世界经济的失衡格局维持不了两年;由…     

从应对全球经济失衡视角看东亚经济金融合作

经常项目收支失衡加剧是全球经济失衡的重要体现。近年来,以美国为一极的发达国家经常项目逆差急剧膨胀;而包括中国在内的东亚国家和地区的经常项目顺差不断扩张。由于经常项目赤字滚雪球般地急剧膨胀,加上美国储蓄率过低、财政赤字高涨,导致了美国对国际资本的巨大需求。而东亚地区由于汇率体制和对美经济依存等原因,被动地持有大量美元资产并向美国提供大量资金。全球国际收支失衡不断向主要几个国家和地区集中,从中长期来看这种不均衡现象是不可持续的,东亚国家面临极大的风险。这一背景下,加强东亚区域经济金融合作是必然的选择。     

金融市场差异与全球经济失衡

本文利用两国动态一般均衡模型对比分析了在开放经济前后两国利率、资本存量、消费和对外负债的变化,研究了封闭与开放均衡时期金融市场差异在形成两国相应经济变量数量差异过程中的作用,以及金融市场对资本跨境部门间流动和经常账户变动的影响,进而探究金融市场在全球经济失衡中的作用。研究结果表明,金融市场发展水平较高国家在提供无风险资产方面具有绝对优势,它的金融部门较生产部门对国际资本的吸引力更强,而金融市场发展水平较低的国家则恰好相反。由此,金融市场差异通过对资本的配置影响消费与投资,进而使两国经常账户顺逆有别。本文还通过将39个国家2000年后的相关数据进行面板回归分析对这一结论进行了验证。     

服务贸易、非对称开放与全球失衡:一项跨国的经验研究

文章从贸易内部结构出发，分析非对称开放条件下，服务贸易兴起与全球失衡之间的关系。并利用全球59个主要贸易国家2000-2014年双边贸易数据对两者之间的关系进行计量分析，实证结果显示：第一，服务贸易净值与经常账户余额之间存在显著的负向关系，服务贸易净值提高100万美元，经常账户余额减少98.7万美元。在引入交互项之后这种关系依然显著成立。因此，服务贸易的非对称开放是造成全球失衡的重要原因。第二，技术进步和利率上调可以扭转服务贸易对经常账户的抑制作用。第三，金融危机之后，服务贸易和经常账户的负向关系进一步强化。后危机时代，全球失衡现象有可能继续恶化。第四，分位数回归发现，在低点位处服务贸易净值对经常账户的影响更为强烈。文章的研究为理解中国的服务贸易逆差提供了新的视角，并为扭转服务贸易逆差奠定了理论基础。     

External adjustments and coordinated exchange rate policy in Asia

In this paper, we estimate structural VAR models with contemporaneous restrictions based on neo-classical and Keynesian theories to investigate whether the cause of current account surpluses for East Asian economies is a “saving glut” or undervalued currencies. Analytical results show that the major determinant of the current account is the real effective exchange rate for all East Asian countries with the exception of China for which the major determinant is domestic GDP. Accordingly, the recently requested revaluation of the Chinese yuan may not be an effective policy for reducing the Chinese current account surplus, and may affect other Asian current accounts. We also investigate whether a Chinese currency revaluation would contribute to the improvement of current account imbalances in East Asia and find that a revaluation would, indeed, improve the current accounts of Japan, Korea, Indonesia, and Thailand. Since the trade structures of major East Asian countries are substitutes with that of China, a Chinese currency revaluation might not lead to a decrease in East Asian current account surpluses. Coordination of currency policy among East Asian countries is, therefore, needed to solve the global current account imbalance.     

Asia's contribution to global rebalancing

Developing Asia remains at the core of global payment imbalances. While the geographical concentration of current account imbalances is significant—with the People's Republic of China accounting for the lion's share of the region's current account surplus—how Asia contributes to global rebalancing also depends critically on the newly industrialising economies and larger Association of Southeast Asian Nations economies. Given the region's huge diversity, the necessary national macroeconomic and structural policies will vary significantly across Asia's emerging economies. Whereas near‐term rebalancing efforts will be driven primarily by macroeconomic and exchange rate policies, structural reforms are essential for boosting domestic and regional demand as sources of economic growth over medium to long‐term. We argue that regional rebalancing will depend critically on the adoption of deeper and more comprehensive structural reforms and further trade liberalisation to unlock the potential of strong domestic and regional spending—thus reducing Asia's high dependence on extra‐regional demand. Priority policies should include infrastructure spending, competition, trade, financial development, investment, immigration, and other social policies to reduce national savings.     

Current account balances and structural adjustment in the euro area

In the past decade, a set of euro area countries has accumulated large current account deficits. After a brief relaxation of the euro area internal imbalances in the wake of the financial crisis, it appears as if this pattern arises anew when times normalize again and Germany still sticks to export-led growth. This issue has been labelled one of the most challenging economic policy issues for Europe inter alia by the European Commission and some other players on the EU level. In this paper, we analyse the role of private restructuring and structural reforms for the urgently needed sustainable readjustment of intra-euro area current account balances. A panel regression reveals a significant impact of structural reforms on intra-euro area current account balances. This implies that in particular structural reforms and wage restraint in notorious current account and budget deficit countries such as Greece are highly suitable to support long-term economic stability in Europe.     

浮动汇率制度有助于经常账户的调节吗?——基于双倍差分法的实证检验

本文运用双倍差分法,分别选择20世纪90年代亚洲金融危机和20世纪70年代布雷顿森林体系的解体两个事件作为"自然实验",实证研究汇率制度与经常账户调节的关系。研究表明,相对于固定汇率制度,浮动汇率制度未能显著地促进经常账户的调节。通过让经常账户盈余国由固定汇率制度调整为浮动汇率制度的做法不会改善全球性经常账户失衡问题。     

Equipping immigrants: migration flows and capital movements in small open economies

This paper explores the extent to which migration-related capital flows can explain the variation in investment rates and current and capital account imbalances in OECD countries. We begin with a general equilibrium model of a small open economy in which migration is exogenous. Migrants must be equipped with capital, and the resulting demands for capital will generate cross-border flows of capital. Next, we move to an empirical exercise in which we allow both capital and labor flows to be endogenous. We test this model using data from a panel of OECD countries. We conclude that migration flows do in fact generate substantial matching capital flows. We calculate that increased migration may have accounted for as much as one-fifth of the increase in the US current account deficit since 1960.     

The role of China in global external imbalances: Some further evidence

The large imbalances in the current account positions of the US and the Asian economies are seen by most scholars as the main threat to an orderly development of the global economy. While the opinions on the most likely evolution of these imbalances and on their sustainability do differ across observers, ranging from catastrophic to rather optimistic views, almost all agree that some adjustment will have to take place in the near future, and that this adjustment will involve, among other things, a rebalancing of saving and demand across the globe. As an outcome of this process, China shall increasingly supplement the US in the role of engine of global economic growth.Using a global macroeconometric model, we examine the impact on this adjustment process of a number of shocks originating in the Chinese economy, including an expansionary fiscal shock, a revaluation of the renmimbi, and an expansion of internal demand following an acceleration in the process of rural–urban migration. The analysis focuses on two related points: how will these shocks affect the medium-run evolution of transpacific imbalances, and what will their impact be on global economic growth. The simulations allow us to track the impact of these shocks on the different poles of the world economy, and to assess their relative contribution to the task of reducing global imbalances without interrupting global economic growth.     

How does the US credit crisis affect the Asia–Pacific economies?—Analysis based on a general equilibrium model

The current financial crisis differs from most post-war recessions in that the balance sheets of both households and banks have been severely damaged, which could lead to structural changes in the behavior of households. Therefore, it may exert some far-reaching effects on regional economies in the short run as well as in the medium term. This paper studies these effects using a multi-country dynamic structural model. In the short run, the US credit crisis weighs heavily upon the Asia–Pacific economies through financial linkages in addition to the traditional trade channel due to the deepening global financial integration. The relative importance of various financial channels differs notably across economies. While stock market contagion is more important for advanced economies, flight to quality across borders plays a key role in less developed economies. From a medium-term perspective, changes in the US household behavior caused by the credit crisis can help correct global imbalances, but the effectiveness hinges largely upon how long US households can maintain a reasonably higher savings rate. In addition, although the declining American public savings rate may not exert material impacts on the global imbalances, it can darken regional growth prospects due to a potentially higher world real interest rate.     

Three current account balances: A “Semi-Structuralist” interpretation

Three current account imbalances – one very large deficit (the United States) and two surpluses (Japan and the Euro area) – are subjected to a minimalist structural interpretation. Though simple, this interpretation enables us to assess how much of each of the imbalances require a real exchange rate adjustment. According to the estimates, a large part of the U.S. current account deficit (nearly 2 percentage points of the 2006 deficit of 5(1/2)% of GDP) will undergo an adjustment process that involves real depreciation in its exchange rate. For Japan, a little more than 1 percentage point (of GDP) of the current account surplus is found to require an exchange rate movement (real appreciation) as the surpluses adjust down. For the Euro area, less than half a percentage point of its current account surplus is found to require an adjustment via real appreciation.