服务贸易对我国服务业升级的作用研究

本文利用我国1978-2012年间的统计数据,从总体和部门两视角定量分析我国服务贸易对服务业升级的影响。结论有:第一,服务贸易对我国服务业发展具有促进作用,相对而言,服务进口要比服务出口对服务业发展的影响大;第二,不同部门的服务进口对服务业升级的影响程度具有差异性,其中,通讯服务等4项进口的影响最大,传统服务贸易的作用不明显;第三,服务业FDI、国内生产总值和货物贸易对服务业升级也有一定的影响;第四,服务贸易主要通过技术溢出、制度创新、资本积累和人力资本积累四种渠道影响了我国服务业的升级。     

中、美服务贸易结构现状及演变比较分析

随着科学知识和技术水平的发展,新一轮产业结构调整浪潮在世界范围内展开,各主要经济大国开始着重发展服务业,由此引起世界服务贸易结构的改变,以运输、旅游传统服务部门日益向知识技术密集型服务转变,而我国这些年仍以运输、旅游等传统的服务贸易为主,结构落后。美国是世界上服务贸易最发达的国家,引入美国与我国进行对比研究,为我国向发达服务经济国家迈进提供参考目标。     

东南亚服务贸易自由化的进展与趋势

近年来,东南亚国家在电信服务业、金融服务业、运输服务业等几个优先开放部门的自由化已初见成效。不过,东南亚服务贸易开放的过程明显慢于货物贸易自由化,各国间和部门间自由化的程度不尽相同,而东盟区域内服务部门相互开放将得以较快发展。     

中美服务贸易国际竞争力比较分析——兼论中国服务贸易结构性失衡

美国作为当今世界服务业最发达的国家,其服务贸易对填补货物贸易产生的巨额逆差发挥了重要作用,而中国则是对美货物贸易的巨大顺差与服务贸易逆差并存。随着中国服务业开放"保护性安排"的结束,中美两国的服务贸易也会快速增长。本文通过对两国服务贸易RCA①和TC②指数的定量分析比较,指出中美服务贸易失衡是中国服务业竞争劣势的集中体现,并就此从宏观和中观两个层面提出了相关的对策建议。     

美国产业结构变动与服务业的发展

20世纪80年代以来,美国积极调整发展战略,国民经济取得了长足发展。本文在介绍美国产业结构变化的基础上,对美国服务业的发展以及美国与服务业和服务贸易相关的政策措施进行探讨。由于我国目前正处于产业结构调整的关键时期,因此学习美国的经验对我国产业结构调整和产业政策制订具有一定的理论和现实的借鉴意义。     

我国现代服务业贸易结构与贸易竞争力的实证分析

经济全球化时代,国际服务贸易的发展十分迅猛,现代服务业贸易的发展更是引人瞩目,成为各国竞争的重要领域。本文首先介绍了全球现代服务业贸易发展概况,然后对我国现代服务业贸易概况从多角度进行总结,接着运用显示性比较优势、贸易竞争优势以及市场占有率三个指标对我国现代服务业贸易结构与贸易竞争力的情况进行了实证分析,最后提出了优化我国现代服务业贸易结构和提升我国现代服务业贸易竞争力的对策建议。     

论国际性服务贸易及其比较优势的形成

关税与贸易总协定第八轮谈判于1989年9月在乌拉圭举行，经过四年多的谈判，迄今尚未结束。乌拉圭回合的谈判，除了继续就货物贸易进行磋商谈判外，还增加了三个新的议题：知识产权、与贸易有关的投资问题以及服务贸易。其中争论比较激烈的是服务贸易有关问题。以美国为代表的一些发达国家，由于其国际服务业高度发达，长期以来一直积极寻求制订服务贸易的国际规则，以实现服务贸易的自由化，从而利用自已服务业的优势打开别国的服务市场；而以巴西、埃及、印度为代表的发展中国家，由于它们的服务业普遍落后于发达国家，基于多种考虑，在服务业的范围、开放度、适用原则等方面都有所保留。本文拟对服务贸易及其比较优势进行探讨。     

湖北运输服务贸易存在的问题与对策

运输服务贸易一直是我国服务贸易的重要组成部分,运输服务业也是我国现阶段要关注的重点行业.本文在介绍湖北运输服务业发展情况的基础上,分析了湖北运输服务贸易的发展现状与存在的问题,并对促进湖北运输服务贸易的发展提出了具体对策.     

两岸服务贸易协议对两岸服务贸易的发展和促进作用

《海峡两岸服务贸易协议》作为ECFA的重要组成部分,两岸互相承诺开放涉及商业、建筑服务、医疗等数十个服务业部门。经过对该协议条款分析可以发现,在具体承诺表中大部分行业限制极少,而在一些涉及国计民生的服务行业两岸均比较谨慎,存在不同程度的限制措施或不予承诺。贸易自由化是国际服务贸易领域发展的大趋势,其对两岸服务贸易的发展也是收益远大于冲击,两岸应立足自身经济发展来看待该协议。     

美国服务贸易发展经验及对我国的启示

随着世界经济结构的不断调整，服务贸易在整个国际贸易中扮演着越来越重要的角色，尤其是《服务贸易总协定》成为WTO一揽子条款重要组成部分为国际服务贸易发展提供了更为宽松的环境。同时．在世界范围内服务业也取得飞速发展．2004年世界投资报告显示服务业已经成为外国直接投资的趋势。我国近些年服务贸易发展水平还比较低，特别是在中美服务贸易中．我国一直处于逆差状况。因此，向服务贸易第一强国美国学习成功经验．并结合自身实际提高我国服务贸易发展水平是十分必要的。     

Comparative advantages in U.S. bilateral services trade with China and India

Using bilateral trade data for 16 service categories, this paper examines the patterns, evolution, and determinants of comparative advantage (CA) in U.S. services trade with China and India from 1992 to 2010. The results indicate that the U.S. has a CA in most services, except in more traditional ones, such as travel and transportation. However, India, and more recently China, gained a CA in modern services, such as computer and information services during the period considered in this paper. An examination of the distributional dynamics indicates that the likelihood of U.S. gaining CA over an initial position of comparative disadvantage (CDA) in its trade of a particular service with India is higher than the probability of losing its initial dominance. In contrast, the U.S. CA or CDA vis-à-vis China exhibits high levels of persistence over time. The regression results suggest that relative abundance of sector-specific labor, human capital, and FDI inflows have been significant sources of CA for the U.S. over both China and India.     

Japanese FDI into U.S. service industries: Exchange rate changes and services tradability

Using the implications of the model of investment under uncertainty, this paper provides a systematic examination of the FDI–exchange rate relationship with respect to services taking into account the degree of tradability across services. Services have mainly been addressed in the literature as a sensitivity test by industry using aggregated service data identified as “nonmanufacturing”. Using data on Japanese FDI into 207 U.S. service industries, maximium-likehood estimates reveal that dollar appreciations are positively correlated with service FDI flows into the U.S. This positive correlation is stronger for non-tradable services versus tradable services. For tradable and non-tradable producer services, higher exchange rate uncertainty may lead to fewer FDI occurrences. On average, across all types of services, higher U.S. unit labor costs relative to Japan had a deterrent effect on Japanese service FDI as well. Finally, this paper also provides a useful benchmark to partition services by tradability.     

中国高等教育服务贸易逆差的探讨

随着我国教育服务贸易的发展,教育服务贸易在我国服务贸易中占据了重要地位。自我国开放国际教育服务贸易以来,特别是2008年美国金融危机后,我国高等教育服务贸易逆差逐步增大。本文通过对我国高等教育服务贸易现状的分析,归纳出我国高等教育服务贸易逆差的表现形式,阐释了我国高等教育服务贸易逆差形成的基本原因,最后提出改善我国国际教育服务贸易逆差的对策建议。     

How Sensitive is U.S.-Canadian Trade to the Exchange Rate: Evidence from Industry Data

Previous research has followed four distinct paths to investigate the impact of currency depreciation on the trade balance of a country, using mostly aggregate trade data. In this paper we choose one of those paths and consider the trade between the U.S. and Canada. However, unlike previous research we disaggregate the trade data between the two countries by commodity and consider 152 industries that trade. After estimating inpayment and outpayment schedules for all 152 industries, we find that real depreciation has short-run effects on inpayments of 72 and outpayments of 53 industries. However, the short-run effects translate into the long-run effects only in 43 of inpayment models and 36 of outpayment models. Further analysis reveals that 1% real depreciation of the U.S. dollar has 1.29% positive effects on the U.S. net export earnings.     

Do exchange rate changes have symmetric or asymmetric effects on the trade balance? Evidence from U.S.–Korea commodity trade

Previous studies of the effects of exchange rate changes on Korea’s trade balance have assumed symmetry between currency depreciation and appreciation. In this paper, we distinguish between the two to show that the effects at the industry level are in fact asymmetrical in most industries for Korea’s bilateral trade with the U.S. We employ an auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach using quarterly data for the period 1989–2014 for the 79 3-digit industries in which trade between Korea and the U.S. took place. Overall, our model incorporating differentiated responses for appreciation versus depreciation reveals a more significant impact of the exchange rate on commodity trade between Korea and the U.S. than a more standard model that imposes symmetry.     

Exchange market pressure, trade, sovereign credit ratings, and U.S. exports in banking services

As a leader in providing banking services in the global market, it is important to understand the variables that influence U.S. exports in banking services. This paper examines the influence that trade, sovereign credit ratings, and exchange market pressure have on U.S. exports of banking services. The empirical evidence indicates that higher trade activity and a higher sovereign credit rating reduce U.S. exports of banking services. The results also suggest that exchange market pressure positively affects U.S. exports of banking services. Tests for individual and random effects across units suggest most of the variation in the estimators is within units.     

Exchange Rate Sensitivity of U.S. Trade Flows: Evidence from Industry Data

Previous research that investigated the relation between U.S. trade flows and the value of the dollar either employed trade data between the United States and the rest of the world or between the United States and her major trading partners. In this paper we use monthly import and export data from 66 industries in the United States SITC Commodity Groupings over the January 1991-August 2002 period as well as cointegration analysis and show that in the long run real depreciation of the dollar stimulates export earnings of many U.S. industries, whereas it has no significant impact on most importing industries.     

产业国际转移视角下的中美贸易摩擦

文章认为,中美贸易逆差近年来大幅增长,在很大程度上是由于发达国家国内产业结构调整,将大量劳动密集型产业和资本技术密集型产业中的劳密型环节转移到中国,实际上等于是把东亚周边国家和地区以前对美、欧的顺差转变成中国对美、欧的顺差,将它们过去与美国的贸易摩擦转换成为中美贸易摩擦。为理顺中美经贸关系,应加快外贸发展方式的转变,坚持合作共赢的原则,大力推进走出去的战略和实施出口多元化战略。     

产业地理与贸易决策——理解中美贸易战的微观逻辑

2018年开始,美国对华发起规模空前的贸易战,具体内容主要包括“关税战”和“技术战”两个方面。贸易战在美国国内引发了明显的利益分化,利益受损方及其在政治体系中的代表力量成为特朗普政府与中国达成贸易协议以在某种程度上减弱贸易战烈度甚至结束贸易战的主要动力。由于美国的产业呈现高度的地理集聚特征,在中美贸易战中利益受到损失的产业最终会通过它们所在选区的政治代言人来表达自身的利益诉求,因此,理解美国产业地理政治的基本特征是理解中美贸易战进程中两国变换采取攻守策略的逻辑基础。作者认为,以产业集中分布为特征的产业地理和以选区为中心的政治地理是理解美国社会利益和政策偏好向联邦政府传导的两把“钥匙”,它们共同构成了塑造联邦政府对华贸易政策的微观利益基础和核心动力机制。由于受损者比获益者更有动力站出来表达利益诉求以影响政府决策,作者在实证部分集中关注美国对华货物出口行业的产业地理政治,分析中美贸易战中美国国内潜在的反对力量,进而为有针对性地制定对美反制措施提出政策建议。     

The South Africa-U.S. Trade and the Real Exchange Rate: Asymmetric Evidence from 25 Industries

Previous studies that assessed the effects of exchange rate changes on the trade balance of South Africa assumed that the effects are symmetric. In this paper we violate that assumption and assess the asymmetric effects of the real rand-dollar rate on the trade balance of 25 2-digit industries that trade between South Africa and the U.S. We find short-run asymmetric effects in a total of 19 industries but short-run cumulative or impact asymmetric effects only on five industries. Short-run asymmetric effects lasted into long-run asymmetric effects on 14 industries. Further analysis revealed industries that will benefit from rand depreciation and those that will be hurt from rand appreciation.