über die Theorie des Wirtschaftlichen Wachstums und Ihre Bedeutung

Summary The study is devoted to the theory of economic growth and its relevance to pure and applied theory. It is maintained that by trying to explain the development of the factors of production the theory of growth represents an important generalization of the static theory of general equilibrium. The main conceptual categories and specific methods of growth theory are shown to be the examination of the existence and stability of growth equilibrium and of comparative dynamics. As far as applied theory is concerned the principle conclusions are the following: economic models devised to explain a country's economic development should be based on the theory of growth rather than on an entirely Keynesian business cycle approach. This does not seem to be generally realised, since the majority of macro-economic models is of basically Keynesian nature. On the other hand the theory of growth needs to be supplemented by a theory of business cycles, because the actual economic development exhibits growth as well as fluctuations. Although great stress is laid on the essential role of the growth theory in any attempt to explain a country's economic development, it is doubted whether the theory can as yet be usefully applied to practical situations. There remain a number of unsolved problems (of measurement etc.) typically connected with the theory of economic growth. While this may, for the time being, prevent the theory from being put to practical use, it in no way affects its basic validity.

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Gastcollege, gegeven aan de Faculteit de Economische Wetenschappen van de Rijksuniversiteit te Groningen op 11 mei 1967.     

Reconstructing growth theory: A survey

Summary Recent developments in the theory of economic growth aim at endogenising long-run growth. The paper discusses models in which technological change arises as a by-product of certain economic activities as well as models where some economic actions are explicity aimed at technological improvements. In addition, separate sections are devoted to the specific reconstruction of growth theory by M. Scott and models explaining stages of economic development. For expositional purposes the algebra is kept to a minimum. The focus is on theoretical models for a closed economy. Empirical work is only mentioned in passing.We are indebted to S. Kuipers, F. van der Ploeg and A. van Schaik for useful comments on an earlier version.     

Stock market development and economic growth in Belgium

This paper investigates the long-term relationship between financial market development and economic development in Belgium. We use a new data set of stock market development indicators to argue that financial market development substantially affected economic growth. We find strong evidence that stock market development caused economic growth in Belgium, especially in the period between 1873 and 1935. Institutional changes affecting the stock exchange explain the time-varying nature of the link between stock market development and economic growth.     

Corruption and firm growth: Evidence from China

Corruption is one of the most pervasive obstacles to economic and social development. However, in the existing literature it appears that corruption seems to be less harmful in some countries than in others. The most striking examples are well known as the “East Asian paradox”: countries displaying exceptional growth records despite having thriving corruption cultures. The aim of this paper is to explain the high corruption but fast economic growth puzzle in China by providing firm-level evidence of the relation between corruption and growth and investigating how financial development influences the former relationship. Our empirical results show that corruption is likely to contribute to firms' growth. We further highlight the substitution relationship between corruption and financial development on firm growth. This means that corruption appears not to be a vital constraint on firm growth if financial markets are underdeveloped. However, pervasive corruption deters firm growth where there are more developed financial markets. This implies that fast firm growth will not be observed until a later stage of China's development when financial markets are well-functioning and corruption is under control. Furthermore, the substitution relationship exists in the private and state-owned firms. Geographically, similar results can be seen in the Southeast and Central regions.     

市场信用体制建设是经济发展第四推动力

资本、劳动力、技术长期以来被认为是经济增长的3个动力源泉。但是这个理论没有考虑其拉动经济增长的市场基础问题,无法解释为什么不同国家的经济增长会出现很大差异。开发性金融实践表明,市场信用体制建设是经济发展第四推动力。加速市场信用体制建设是发展中国家实现自觉、主动、持续、稳定、健康发展的必然要求。     

Causality tests of export-led growth: The case of Mexico

Although econometric studies have confirmed the relationship between exports and economic growth, some studies are inherently weak in that they are based on an a priori assumption that export growth causes economic growth. This is erroneous because causality should be tested and proven rather than simply assumed. This paper uses the Granger causality test which takes into consideration the time series properties of the data to examine the incidence of export-led development in Mexico. The authors conclude that Granger causality test confirms the relationship between export growth and GDP growth in the Mexican case as posited by development theory.     

The relation of distribution to growth

It has become commonplace to associate economic development with rapid economic growth. Most traditional theories of growth imply that high savings ratios are required for the high growth rates desired by developing countries. But high savings ratios mean low consumption demand and, in most economies, wide disparities in incomes. The analysis investigates the post-Keynesian and neoclassical views on these matters in the light of the recent debates in capital and distribution theory. The results are just as divergent on the level of development as on the level of strict capital theory.     

美国天然气消费与经济增长之间的关系研究对中国的启示

本文分析了从1949～2010年以来美国实际GDP和美国天然气消费之间的关系,主要运用到了计量经济学中的协整理论和Granger因果关系检验理论。从分析的结果得出,美国天然气消费量和美国经济增长之间是有协整关系的。美国天然气消费量的增长是美国实际GDP增长的原因。美国近年来对天然气的发展做了很大推动,特别是在页岩气方面的技术取得了长足的发展,有效地改善了能源结构。中国也应吸取美国的好经验,大力发展天然气,来应对煤炭的日益减少。     

股票市场、金融中介与经济增长的实证研究

金融发展是影响经济增长的至关重要的因素之一,本文利用2003²013年的季度数据,通过构建联立方程模型,使用广义矩估计(GMM)方法研究了中国股票市场、金融中介与经济增长之间的关系。实证结果表明:股票市场发展并不是经济增长的原因,而经济增长促进了股票市场繁荣;金融中介的发展促进经济增长,而经济增长时由于金融中介的逆向操作往往使得金融中介的总体规模降低;股票市场发展与金融中介发展相互促进。据此,我们认为我过的金融市场还不够完善,应进一步完善体制,规范操作,促进经济协调发展。     

Social indicators,growth and distribution

The recent focus on a basic-needs approach to development has rekindled interest in the relationship between growth, income distribution and indicators of welfare. This paper provides some statistical evidence to support the view that for low-income LDCs, growth is necessary to bring about welfare improvements, as measured by aggregate social indicators. Historically for that group, growth rather than distribution is significantly correlated with indicators. For middle-income LDCs, the scope for improving welfare through redistribution is larger, as supported by correlation analysis results. The statistical evidence is consistent with economic theory and relevant for an effective integration of basic-needs objectives into a strategy of growth and equity.     

我国区域经济增长的开发性金融支持效应分析——基于面板数据模型的研究

随着我国经济增长方式从粗放型向节约型可持续发展方向转变,开发性金融理论与实践日益受到重视。本文利用面板数据分析了开发性金融对区域经济发展的影响,结果表明,近几年来开发性金融对区域经济增长的促进作用是明显的,对缩小区域差异的作用不明显,但通过分析认为开发性金融是缩小区域经济差异的有效政策手段。     

Can Time–Space Compression Promote Urban Economic Growth? Evidence from China's High‐speed Rail Projects

This paper studies the effect of high‐speed rail (HSR) on urban economic growth using a panel data comprising 285 Chinese cities in 2007–2017. Combining the endogenous growth model with a difference‐in‐difference analysis, we extend the horse‐mass theory to explain how China may use HSR to avoid the so‐called middle‐income trap. The paper also examines the efficient boundaries of HSR and simultaneously studies HSR time–space compression as well as the city neighboring effects on economic growth. It is found that HSR's efficient boundaries are within the range of 200–1,200 km for provincial capitals and 50–300 km for prefecture‐level cities. HSR stimulates economic growth by approximately 0.6 percent, and the neighboring effect accounts for one‐quarter of economic growth. Three policy implications are drawn: (i) China needs to further reduce the travel times between the inland provincial cities and Beijing, Shanghai or Guangzhou; (ii) China should build a denser HSR network to maximize its economic impact on the vast majority of cities; (iii) China needs to develop some powerful economic growth centers in the inland areas to lead the development of their neighboring cities.     

Human capital quality and the regional economic growth: Evidence from China

China's economic development has advanced from a high-speed to a high-quality growth stage in recent years. The optimization and upgrading of the economic structure require high-quality human capital to support an innovation-driven economy. In this paper, a general equilibrium model of human capital (Xiang & Yeaple, 2018) is applied to estimate the cognitive and non-cognitive productivities based on Chinese provincial-level macro-data and individual labor's micro-data from 2008 to 2017. The weighted power mean of cognitive and non-cognitive productivities helps calculate the provincial-level human capital quality index (HCQI), which provides a realistic estimate of human capital quality. We find that the improvement of the HCQI leads to convergence in economic growth in China's provinces. HCQI can help explain the differences in economic growth levels in different regions of China. Our study provides a constructive step in understanding cognitive and non-cognitive abilities and HCQI in China, which could help guide education investment policy in China and its provinces.     

要素投入、技术外溢与信息化的生产率效应

基于增长理论的分析框架,从要素投入和技术溢出两个角度出发,本文把信息化对经济增长的作用界定为增长效应和效率效应,继而探讨了两种效应对经济作用的机制与联系。在利用2001～2005年的面板数据进行经验分析后,本文发现,中国信息化发展对经济增长的作用是积极的,但是对于经济增长技术效率的影响并不明显;无论是作为要素投入的因素,还是作为效率影响因素,区域信息化的差异都能解释不同地区之间经济差距;相对于信息化要素投入的增长效应,信息化的技术外溢更能反映信息化在经济中的重要作用。本文的政策含义在于,推进信息化建设不仅要加强信息产业的发展,发挥信息产业在国民经济中的带动作用,而且重在发挥信息化在经济中的技术溢出和资源配置作用,以此来提升经济发展的质量。     

技术和制度内生条件下的中国经济增长

当前,我国经济增长面临的新问题主要表现为自然资源的约束全面强化;流动性过剩,造成国内物价上涨压力增大;人民币不断升值和美国经济下滑,导致内外需双重不足。仅依靠传统的经济增长理论指导,采用粗放型、投资主导型、政府主导型、欠发展型的增长模式,不能解决当前经济增长中的诸多现实问题,必须借鉴新经济增长理论的技术内生对经济增长贡献的研究成果,并且不断进行制度创新才能推动我国经济持续稳定健康发展。     

Trade,the Staple Theory of Growth,and Fluctuations in Colonial Singapore, 1900–39

Our paper enquires into the nexus between trade, growth, and fluctuations in the British colony of Singapore during the early twentieth century. Hitherto, little quantitative economic history has been written on this great entrepôt of Southeast Asia due to a lack of data. We overcome this limitation by utilising the gross domestic product series recently constructed for the pre‐war period by Sugimoto. This comprehensive data set enables us to explore the relevance and applicability of the staple theory of export‐led growth to colonial Singapore through cliometric analyses. The results suggest that foreign trade had acted both as an engine of growth and a source of economic instability.     

The Contribution of Wheat to Australian Agriculture from 1861 to 1939

The influence of agriculture on Australia's nineteenth and twentieth century economic development is well known. While wool's contribution is rightly celebrated, the contribution of agricultural crops has received less attention. This paper focuses on one major staple, wheat, from 1861 to 1939. Both patent data and a new measure of technological progress, the cumulative number of wheat varieties tested for local adoption, are used to quantify the contribution of agricultural innovation to growth. We find innovation in this sector made an important contribution to the growth of total factor productivity over the period.     

US growth and budget consolidation in the 1990s: was there a non-Keynesian effect?

The 1990s were an extraordinary period for the US economy, both because of declining budget deficits and emerging budget surpluses, as well as high rates of economic growth. This paper challenges the conventional wisdom that high growth rates caused budget improvements, and claims that budget consolidations also contributed to fostering economic growth. We propose the existence of a non-Keynesian effect, where fiscal policy runs counter to Keynesian theory and fiscal consolidation can foster economic growth. We present empirical evidence that an increase in tax revenues reduces the distortionary bias of future taxation and therefore leads to an increase in consumer confidence and consumption. Two supply side effects are proposed: a reduction in transfers reduced labour market pressures and government savings provided liquidity for financial markets, both of which increased incentives to invest.     

危机后对“华盛顿共识”和“北京共识”的思考——关于经济自由与经济增长的经验分析

本文分别使用世界各国的截面数据和中国的时间序列数据分析经济自由度指数与经济增长率的关系。结果表明,在控制了劳动力人口、资本存量以及人力资本等变量后,经济自由度与经济增长率之间存在非常密切的正向(因果)关系。我们的工作不仅为亚当.斯密的自由经济理论提供了新证据,而且证明了中国的经济增长正是得益于经济自由度的提高,中国并不是自由经济理论的一个例外。     

Political instability, policy uncertainty, and economic growth: An empirical investigation

This paper elaborates upon the effect of political stability on economic growth using a novel approach. Unlike the literature on growth that emphasizes the turnover of decision makers, this paper focuses on the volatility of economic policies as the relevant indicator of stability. The literature on growth ignores the microeconomic instability associated with frequent changes of government policies. The empirical results of this paper indicate that the effect of political instability on economic growth is not conclusive. Most of the commonly used proxies for political instability have failed to explain growth differences across countries. The political instability indices have no significant effect on growth when a reasonable set of core variables is also included in the regression equation. The results also show that almost all of the policy uncertainty variables are significantly and negatively correlated with economic growth. However, the instability of economic policies has no significant impact on the accumulation of capital.